U.S. stocks in free fall

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guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:46 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:35 am

Most likely this particular Wuhan Coronavirus will not cause any more market damage than previous virus outbreaks have done in the past. There are less global deaths as a result of the Wuhan Coronavirus at this point in time than the current number of deaths due to the current 2019-2020 flu season...

So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children, a group that's particularly vulnerable to the flu and its complications.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-peop ... d=67754182

Regarding previous outbreaks, here's some market history...

Image
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2020-01-22
:thumbsup Any effect was quite short.. Better to stay invested..
"Equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve."

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:49 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:38 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:58 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 pm
S&P 500 on average returns 9-10% per year

Last 3 months up 11% (straight up) without any correction.

I received lump-sum yesterday, will likely dollar cost average in.. (though lump-sum maybe better)

https://paulmerriman.com/is-dollar-cost ... dex-funds/
Do you have an IRA or 401k invested in equities? Why aren’t you moving that to cash and redeploying via DCA as well? What you’re doing with the windfall is logically equivalent. I don’t invest with emotions but for some it’s a better evil.
Thank you for the suggestion.. I will invest part of the lump-sum in taxable and sell the same amount in IRA. Then redeploy IRA via DCA.

Earlier this month, I was at around 120% stock (leverage through micro-emini futures). Right now around 95% stock, after reducing leverage.. have around 20% bonds.. I was following the lifecycle investing approach.
I think you misunderstood me. I’m not suggesting you DCA, I’m saying DCA in taxable from a windfall is equivalent to taking your entire 401k and IRA and moving it to cash then DCAing it. Imagine a retiree doing that every year with a $3M 401k, crazy right? That is what you are deciding to do.

I lump sum everything. If a windfall is substantial maybe it’ll warrant an AA update but that’s all.

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am

2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me given the long incubation period (estimates up to 14 days)... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

I’m trimming international exposure where I can, holding onto gold positions.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring 63 other possible infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html

Add this (it’s in Wuhan):

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... ns-1.21487
But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Last edited by Corsair on Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:59 am

Corsair wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am
2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me given the long incubation period (estimates up to 14 days)... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

I’m trimming international exposure where I can, holding onto gold positions.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring 63 other possible infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html
Neither this, Brexit or the 737 Max scare the crap out of me. Now the drive-through line at Starbuck's worries the crap out of me. Go figure.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:00 am

Corsair wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am
2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html
Don't feed into the hysteria, this will fizzle just like sars and swine flu. Since this new virus was discovered, millions have gotten the seasonal flu and tens of thousands have died from it. If you want to be afraid of health issues, be afraid of heart disease and cancer as most of us will live long enough to die from one of them. Having said all that, the hysteria can cause real and lasting harm and could hurt business in China or elsewhere because China has used this as an excuse to deny millions their right to travel freely.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:25 am

Corsair wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am
2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me given the long incubation period (estimates up to 14 days)... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

I’m trimming international exposure where I can, holding onto gold positions.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring 63 other possible infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html

Add this (it’s in Wuhan):

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... ns-1.21487
But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Geez... Relax. When it's your time, it's your time. Why so serious?

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:31 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:25 am
Corsair wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am
2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me given the long incubation period (estimates up to 14 days)... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

I’m trimming international exposure where I can, holding onto gold positions.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring 63 other possible infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html

Add this (it’s in Wuhan):

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... ns-1.21487
But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Geez... Relax. When it's your time, it's your time. Why so serious?

The best thing for one's mental health is to never watch any news channels on TV.

Try it, you will be amazed at how much better you feel.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

Alaric
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Alaric » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:10 pm

So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children, a group that's particularly vulnerable to the flu and its complications.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-peop ... d=67754182
Not to at all minimize the tragedy of those 39 children's deaths or the other ~6,600 deaths, but 39 out of 6,600 doesn't really support the last clause of that quote. I take away from those figures that older people are particularly vulnerable to the flu and its complications.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:56 pm

Calm down, easy does it.

I am making no changes.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:07 pm

I would not read anything into a single day drop, the way this market is going there will be a rush of buyers on Monday to "buy the dip" and it will go back up again.

invstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by invstar » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm

I added 100k lump sum and it's down 1% already. I have been waiting to add that amount and was thinking like - the moment I add, the market will go down... I think I am a good market timer :shock: :( :oops:

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:21 pm

Umm.. guys?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:26 pm

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:21 pm
Umm.. guys?
Looking Good Billy Ray Feeling Good Louis :sharebeer
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:29 pm

Hello my old friend. You haven't gotten as much attention lately compared to that other thread but you'll have your time to shine

:D
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

ZMonet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ZMonet » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:30 pm

Nothing to see here. Short-term traders are selling so as to not hold the risk over the weekend of this sickness being worse than currently known.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:33 pm

ZMonet wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:30 pm
Nothing to see here. Short-term traders are selling so as to not hold the risk over the weekend of this sickness being worse than currently known.
Such a party pooper. Let the rest of us have fun in the free fall thread.

TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomCat96 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:40 pm

We all knew this was coming. The rate of market growth was simply too fast and was unsustainable by any historic precedent, gdp growth, or price/earnings. Last time I computed the rate of growth over the last few months, it was something like a 60% per year when annualized.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:44 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm
I added 100k lump sum and it's down 1% already. I have been waiting to add that amount and was thinking like - the moment I add, the market will go down... I think I am a good market timer :shock: :( :oops:
Thanks a lot! :annoyed j/k

I thought that I was the only person who had such precise control over the markets. Perhaps there are enough of us that we could form a club and monetize our powers!

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:12 pm

Is this some sanity after shooting up 10.5% in 3 months..

Since Sept 2019, this is first week when S&P500 has been down by more than 10 points for the week..

Looking at the SPY weekly data: for the last 16 weeks S&P500 has either been up or flat for the week. (flat means twice it was down by less than 10 points..)

That said, it might run up in the last hour today..
"Equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve."

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:13 pm

invstar wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm
I added 100k lump sum and it's down 1% already. I have been waiting to add that amount and was thinking like - the moment I add, the market will go down... I think I am a good market timer :shock: :( :oops:
this happened to me in Jan 2018, except I lumpsummed $300K.. then in Feb we had the big 10% correction so if I had waited a few weeks I would've been $30,000 ahead!!

In any case my portfolio has done very well since so it's all good! It's the long term that matters.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:27 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:34 pm
I sold 3.7% of my portfolio in ITOT shares today at $75.0918, under 0.1% away from the all-time-high. It is official, either the crash of all crashes, or rallies of all rallies is coming next.

Before I get the anti market-timing talk, in all seriousness this sale was to cover some recent expenses and will be back-filled 5 times over by tax-advantaged savings this year. Still wouldn't mind a dip before those contributions arrive :twisted: .
Keep on dropping so I can say I hit the market top! Should've sold more :twisted: .

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:33 pm

Market timing works, just against you.

Everytime you buy a lot, there is a high chance that the market will drop -2% the next say :mrgreen:

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:46 pm

Was getting sad as things climbed back up, but looks like a dead-cat bounce and we are back towards new lows for the day :twisted: .

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:07 pm

I guess nothing to be too alarmed about novel coronavirus yet.
For perspective, Americans are far more likely to get sick and die from influenza rather than novel coronavirus, said epidemiologist William Schaffner, who is medical director for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

“We’re in the middle of a big influenza outbreak in this country,” he said. “Don’t linger, get vaccinated this afternoon. There’s flu in every state.”
So far, there is much that health officials around the world still do not know about novel coronavirus, an illness that belongs to a family of viruses that include the common cold and SARS. On Thursday, the World Health Organization declined to declare novel coronavirus a global public health emergency. Officials said too many questions remain about the illness’ nature and severity.

“It’s somewhere between the common cold and SARS. We don’t know where it is,” former CDC director Tom Frieden said. “It’s early, and we still haven’t seen a lot of the information we would expect to see.”

While he credited Chinese authorities with quickly identifying, sequencing the genome of this strain of coronavirus and publishing those findings for global health officials to use, Frieden said a large amount of information remains unknown. Those unknowns include more detail about the cases, incubation period, the risk factor, the times of onset, the risk factors for being severely ill, risk factors for dying, and details for health care worker transmission.

“The sooner China publishes that information, the safer China will be, and the safer the world will be,” Frieden said.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/cdc ... in-chicago
"Equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve."

tenkuky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tenkuky » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:13 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:27 pm
Keep on dropping so I can say I hit the market top! Should've sold more :twisted: .
Regrets I've had a few
But then again too few to mention
I did what I had to do
--Ol' Blue Eyes

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:25 pm

tenkuky wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:13 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:27 pm
Keep on dropping so I can say I hit the market top! Should've sold more :twisted: .
Regrets I've had a few
But then again too few to mention
I did what I had to do
--Ol' Blue Eyes
:sharebeer

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:29 pm

Bluce wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:31 am
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:25 am
Corsair wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am
2nd confirmed case in Chicago...

This scares the crap out of me given the long incubation period (estimates up to 14 days)... I don’t trust the Chinese governments estimates. 99.9% chance they’re underestimating.

I’m trimming international exposure where I can, holding onto gold positions.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring 63 other possible infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-con ... nosed.html

Add this (it’s in Wuhan):

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the- ... ns-1.21487
But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Geez... Relax. When it's your time, it's your time. Why so serious?

The best thing for one's mental health is to never watch any news channels on TV.

Try it, you will be amazed at how much better you feel.
+1
Couple of months ago, and thanks to bogleheads philosophy if calling the news by its real name: Noise, I decided to unfollow news pages on Facebook. The difference was huge!! Way less anxiety!! At the end of the day, we can't save the victime from that murderer by reading about the crime, the same way we can't save our wealth from a bear during a meltdown. Just enjoy the ride and deal with whatever life throwing at you :beer
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm

I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mrspock » Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:10 pm

Pay day! Great time for a pull back. Looking forward to reading all the panic/market timing threads next week! :D

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:18 pm

mrspock wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:10 pm
Pay day! Great time for a pull back. Looking forward to reading all the panic/market timing threads next week! :D
Yeah, market timing threads asking if they should DCA because the market hit a new ATH on Monday :twisted: .

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:48 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:29 pm
+1
Couple of months ago, and thanks to bogleheads philosophy if calling the news by its real name: Noise, I decided to unfollow news pages on Facebook. The difference was huge!! Way less anxiety!! At the end of the day, we can't save the victime from that murderer by reading about the crime, the same way we can't save our wealth from a bear during a meltdown. Just enjoy the ride and deal with whatever life throwing at you :beer
:sharebeer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:00 am

invstar wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm
I added 100k lump sum and it's down 1% already. I have been waiting to add that amount and was thinking like - the moment I add, the market will go down... I think I am a good market timer :shock: :( :oops:
My bot bought VOO at 301, smart bot. :greedy
guyinlaw wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:07 pm
I guess nothing to be too alarmed about novel coronavirus yet.
I drink Corona all the time and I feel fine. Stay the course.
Image :beer

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:19 am

invstar wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:55 pm
I added 100k lump sum and it's down 1% already. I have been waiting to add that amount and was thinking like - the moment I add, the market will go down... I think I am a good market timer :shock: :( :oops:
General Rule #1: If you buy today, the market will go down tomorrow.

Rule #2: If you sell today, the market will go up tomorrow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bluce's #1 Rule: NEVER buy or sell (stocks) in big chunks at one time! If adding a large lump, put it all in cash and spread the purchases out over several months or more (standard DCA).
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:26 pm

S&P 500 futures down 1% in early Asia trading. :shock:

sambb
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sambb » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:25 pm

decline tomorrow? ugh

keyfort
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by keyfort » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:34 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:26 pm
S&P 500 futures down 1% in early Asia trading. :shock:
As DW’s grandfather used to say, “This, too, shall pass.”
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:38 pm

keyfort wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.
IMO: I don't know your situation, but it's standard practice to NOT put a big % of your portfolio value into any particular asset class at one time. Leave it in cash and dollar-cost average it into stocks over months or even a year or so -- whatever you're comfortable with.

The larger the chunk is relative to your portfolio value, the longer I would take to DCA it in. But, that's just me. :confused
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:40 pm

keyfort wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.
And if you wait until it’s $190?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:53 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:26 pm
S&P 500 futures down 1% in early Asia trading. :shock:
Ok.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

clip651
Posts: 660
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:41 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:38 pm
keyfort wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.
IMO: I don't know your situation, but it's standard practice to NOT put a big % of your portfolio value into any particular asset class at one time. Leave it in cash and dollar-cost average it into stocks over months or even a year or so -- whatever you're comfortable with.

The larger the chunk is relative to your portfolio value, the longer I would take to DCA it in. But, that's just me. :confused
Well, to be fair, it's standard practice for people to worry and argue about it, debate which one they should do, which one is "better" etc. There are many Lump sum vs. DCA threads and many posts arguing each side. The wiki page on DCA covers some of the basic pros and cons to the two approaches:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

cj

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:07 pm

keyfort wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.
Meet Bob:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:28 pm

S&P 500 Futures down 0.92%
Nikkie down 1.9%

China has set this whole week as holiday (extended by 3 days). Hope things get better soon..

EM markets ETFs will have large drop Monday..
Last edited by guyinlaw on Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve."

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:53 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:34 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:26 pm
S&P 500 futures down 1% in early Asia trading. :shock:
As DW’s grandfather used to say, “This, too, shall pass.”
Will it pass going north or south? :?
My VOO buy bot is locked and loaded at 299; that is next months :dollar though.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:22 am

SnP DOWN .99%! :shock:
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:30 am

could be profit taking before earnings week, we have the FOMC announcement as well on Wednesday...stay tuned.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:44 am

Is this all related to the corona virus?

The media is all over it, as if the Spanisch flu was back.

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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:48 am

Stef wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:44 am
Is this all related to the corona virus?

The media is all over it, as if the Spanisch flu was back.
The most striking example is the deadliest outbreak in modern history: The 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu outbreak. Record-keeping then wasn’t what it is now, but researchers estimate at least half a billion were infected, with 100 million deaths—then about 6% of the global population.[iv] It was deadliest to young, otherwise healthy adults, and it came on the heels of a world war that decimated much of Europe. Stock market data before 1926 aren’t terribly reliable, but historical Dow Jones Industrial Average data suggest US stocks rose double digits in 1918 and 1919. If markets could overcome something so deadly, it seems fair to say they can be similarly resilient after a century of medical innovations that have drastically curbed contagion and death tolls. Breaking news of a fast-spreading illness may sway some stocks in the very near term, but the likelihood of a material, lasting downturn tied to one seems exceedingly low to us.
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us ... and-stocks
Trade the news and you will lose.

oken
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oken » Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:18 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:07 pm
I guess nothing to be too alarmed about novel coronavirus yet.
For perspective, Americans are far more likely to get sick and die from influenza rather than novel coronavirus, said epidemiologist William Schaffner, who is medical director for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

“We’re in the middle of a big influenza outbreak in this country,” he said. “Don’t linger, get vaccinated this afternoon. There’s flu in every state.”
So far, there is much that health officials around the world still do not know about novel coronavirus, an illness that belongs to a family of viruses that include the common cold and SARS. On Thursday, the World Health Organization declined to declare novel coronavirus a global public health emergency. Officials said too many questions remain about the illness’ nature and severity.

“It’s somewhere between the common cold and SARS. We don’t know where it is,” former CDC director Tom Frieden said. “It’s early, and we still haven’t seen a lot of the information we would expect to see.”

While he credited Chinese authorities with quickly identifying, sequencing the genome of this strain of coronavirus and publishing those findings for global health officials to use, Frieden said a large amount of information remains unknown. Those unknowns include more detail about the cases, incubation period, the risk factor, the times of onset, the risk factors for being severely ill, risk factors for dying, and details for health care worker transmission.

“The sooner China publishes that information, the safer China will be, and the safer the world will be,” Frieden said.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/cdc ... in-chicago
The main issue, to me, is that this has happened just before the Lunar New Year.
During the Lunar New Year, Chinese people travel to be with their families (perhaps similar to Thanksgiving).

In fact, I think the Lunar New Year holiday lasts for one week in China. So basically, most, if not all will be travelling. If not to visit family, then certainly for holiday.

This is a HUGE movement of people. Much more than US Thanksgiving. And of greater international impact as well.

It doesn't seem to be as infectious, nor as deadly as SARs for example. But the movement of people, I think, is MUCH larger.

keyfort
Posts: 169
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by keyfort » Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:23 am

Bluce wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:38 pm
keyfort wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:31 pm
I just bought VTI this morning because my IPS told me to do so (it is a payday!). I bought it before the drop. I am always the unluckiest when it comes to buying stocks timing (glad I am not a market timer, I would be a horrible investor/gambler of all the time!) :D But in the long term, it shouldn't matter. I am staying the course
I really want to believe this, since I guess you could say I lump summed in, or at least, put a large amount in very recently, but I do wonder:

- If I go in to VTI at a price of 150, with $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 33.33% and sitting at $133,333.
- But if I go in to VTI at a price of 160, with the same $100,000, then if/when VTI hits 200, I'm up 25%, sitting at $125,000, a difference of $8,333.

So if I lumped in a million bucks, it'd be a difference of $83,333. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say, but as much as I try to convince myself that time in the market is all that matters and that it'll all be fine, it just doesn't feel that simple! Please correct me because it'll sure help me feel better about last week.
IMO: I don't know your situation, but it's standard practice to NOT put a big % of your portfolio value into any particular asset class at one time. Leave it in cash and dollar-cost average it into stocks over months or even a year or so -- whatever you're comfortable with.

The larger the chunk is relative to your portfolio value, the longer I would take to DCA it in. But, that's just me. :confused
I've read countless times that best practice is to decide on an asset allocation, lump sum in, and then forget about it for years.

I've also read that lump summing is statistically likely to generate higher returns than DCA.

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