U.S. stocks in free fall

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tnbison
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tnbison » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:24 pm

mc2 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:16 pm
H-Town wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:21 pm
DOW is going for 1,000 points drop.

I sure wish the news media would start using percentages. 500 pt drop when the dow is at 25000 is much different from when it was 10k.

God bless the fearmongering media!
And start talking about the S&P instead of the DJIA. I remember the first time I learned about the DJIA being price weighted instead of market weighted. Blew my mind. I guess reporting "DOW PLUNGES 700 POINTS" is a lot sexier than "S&P plunges 60 points"

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:33 pm

tnbison wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:24 pm
mc2 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:16 pm
H-Town wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:21 pm
DOW is going for 1,000 points drop.

I sure wish the news media would start using percentages. 500 pt drop when the dow is at 25000 is much different from when it was 10k.

God bless the fearmongering media!
And start talking about the S&P instead of the DJIA. I remember the first time I learned about the DJIA being price weighted instead of market weighted. Blew my mind. I guess reporting "DOW PLUNGES 700 POINTS" is a lot sexier than "S&P plunges 60 points"
I always laughed when the media reports "the worst drop ever".

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:51 pm

I loved the eTrade baby commercials. One of the very rare commercials where my ears would perk up instead of tuning out when I heard/saw one coming on the TV. They were even more entertaining than this thread. I got excited every time they introduced a new commercial.

I'm afraid they never enticed me to be at all interested in their services though.

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mindgap
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mindgap » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:59 pm

Until what time (Pacific) do I have to buy VTSAX so I get the same day rate? :confused

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:00 pm

mindgap wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:59 pm
Until what time (Pacific) do I have to buy VTSAX so I get the same day rate? :confused
12:59pm PST, you have time.

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mindgap
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mindgap » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:01 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:00 pm
mindgap wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:59 pm
Until what time (Pacific) do I have to buy VTSAX so I get the same day rate? :confused
12:59pm PST, you have time.
Thx. I guess I buy a small amount. Cant hurt I guess.

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:02 pm

tnbison wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:24 pm
mc2 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:16 pm
H-Town wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:21 pm
DOW is going for 1,000 points drop.

I sure wish the news media would start using percentages. 500 pt drop when the dow is at 25000 is much different from when it was 10k.

God bless the fearmongering media!
And start talking about the S&P instead of the DJIA. I remember the first time I learned about the DJIA being price weighted instead of market weighted. Blew my mind. I guess reporting "DOW PLUNGES 700 POINTS" is a lot sexier than "S&P plunges 60 points"
And both are sexier than "Market plunges 2%"
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:08 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:02 pm
tnbison wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:24 pm

And start talking about the S&P instead of the DJIA. I remember the first time I learned about the DJIA being price weighted instead of market weighted. Blew my mind. I guess reporting "DOW PLUNGES 700 POINTS" is a lot sexier than "S&P plunges 60 points"
And both are sexier than "Market plunges 2%"
How about "Market Free-Falls 2%". That will catch their attention!
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm

mindgap wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:01 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:00 pm
mindgap wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:59 pm
Until what time (Pacific) do I have to buy VTSAX so I get the same day rate? :confused
12:59pm PST, you have time.
Thx. I guess I buy a small amount. Cant hurt I guess.
I buy anytime I have cash I don't need to spend, as soon as I get it. In the longrun that will win out. I agree today is a better day to buy than yesterday though.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:16 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:51 pm
I loved the eTrade baby commercials. One of the very rare commercials where my ears would perk up instead of tuning out when I heard/saw one coming on the TV. They were even more entertaining than this thread. I got excited every time they introduced a new commercial.

I'm afraid they never enticed me to be at all interested in their services though.
Yes, the baby commercials were great. The eTrade commercials today are pretty lame.

Like getting even with rich people being used as a driver for investing.... nah. I can't see anyone really believing that rubbish.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anon_investor » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:37 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm
I buy anytime I have cash I don't need to spend, as soon as I get it. In the longrun that will win out. I agree today is a better day to buy than yesterday though.
Me too, usually whenever it's pay day. It just happens that today the market is down big and I don't get paid until tomorrow :annoyed
I will buy tomorrow, oh well :beer

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm

squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
Funding secured

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:48 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
Then we reach a deal with China, the market skyrockets to all-new highs, and we all live happily, ever after.

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:52 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
I thinking we hit 1850 we see negative rates on the ten. Then we test 1550 and we see negative rates on all maturities except the thirty.

Years ago I did think we'd top out around 3k.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:58 pm

Well, today I actually rebalanced a bit. My Total Bond Market Index (which I will be trading out of over time) is up, and Total Stock Market is down, so I exchanged $15,000 in bond fund for $15,000 in stock fund.

Fortunately everything is in tax deferred, so no capital gains to worry about.

I'm hoping to be able to do this type transaction again. I believe it will be possible, perhaps even tomorrow.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:04 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:58 pm
Well, today I actually rebalanced a bit. My Total Bond Market Index (which I will be trading out of over time) is up, and Total Stock Market is down, so I exchanged $15,000 in bond fund for $15,000 in stock fund.

Fortunately everything is in tax deferred, so no capital gains to worry about.

I'm hoping to be able to do this type transaction again. I believe it will be possible, perhaps even tomorrow.

Broken Man 1999
Just curious, why are you trading out of total bond?

Sakura
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Sakura » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:07 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:10 pm
willthrill81 wrote:

Maybe my trend following strategy will be vindicated in the near future!
I presume that means that after the move from equities into safe assets in Q4 2018, that you're still in those safe assets. Whether this move will work out or not in the end is still uncertain. Picking equity exit and then reentry points in market timing is a tricky business. I pulled a lot of equity out of the market in the summer of 2007 which saved me a bundle, but in my view it was more clear at that time that a major real estate bubble existed and that collapse was imminent. Personally I do not have such confidence now about the market's near term future, whether it will go on to new highs or enter a bear market. It will be interesting to see how this trend following strategy works out for willthrill81. I would say I wish him good luck but that would imply that I'm wishing for a bear market soon which I'm not. I do believe strongly that we'll enter a bear market in the next 18 months but I think that this bull has a bit further to run before that happens. Bear market indicators like the inverted yield curve often flash a warning sign 12 - 18 months before the recession actually hits. Like all guesses about the market's future, mine and/or willthrill81's trend following move may turn out to be wrong.

Garland Whizzer
Always enjoy your observations in the forum.

Being a long time trader when asked what my best trade ever was I'll say getting out in 2000 and 2006 while watching friends eat massive losses.

Problem of course is not just when to get it but when to get back in.

I tend to think you're right that we'll see a downturn in the next 2 years. The yield curve I find less compelling as a reason given that once the market knows something it's no longer really actionable in and of itself.

However this business cycle is going on 10 years and we've piled on massive amounts of debt with that rate accelerating due to some policy and taxation changes.

Add in obvious geopolitical issues, stagnant developed markets, slowing albeit still lots of growth in China, and it could be another wall of worry but this feels like it has legs in the way of a potential downturn. Our consumption here and the Chinese appear to be all that's left for a bear to arrive.

Unlike those past downturns I don't sense the same euphoria about an asset class (tech stocks and real estate) but on the flip aide almost every common asset class has been running with this bull...bonds, stocks, real estate. Even gold is nearing 1600 while Bitcoin has creepy back over 10k. About the only things that seem to have been left behind are energy and fossil fuel stocks.

If a downturn does hit then I suspect it wouldn't be quite as bad as the last with bank failures and what not.

I feel good about my AA and added some timely purchases today...got a nice discount in the past few days too so having dry powder with my charts came in handy again. Maybe that's the actionable item...check AA and keep going.
Last edited by Sakura on Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:09 pm

I would've put more money in, except I have no extra money to put in. :oops:

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:10 pm

squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:52 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
I thinking we hit 1850 we see negative rates on the ten. Then we test 1550 and we see negative rates on all maturities except the thirty.

Years ago I did think we'd top out around 3k.
C’mon people think big.

SP500 will drop to 500 and an ounce of gold will be $5000

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:14 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:10 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:52 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
I thinking we hit 1850 we see negative rates on the ten. Then we test 1550 and we see negative rates on all maturities except the thirty.

Years ago I did think we'd top out around 3k.
C’mon people think big.

SP500 will drop to 500 and an ounce of gold will be $5000
I'm just thinking realistically. The last two bear markets I remember very well. The s&p dropped 50% both times. Stocks don't grow to the sky.

Calico
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Calico » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm

I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.

Sakura
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Sakura » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:20 pm

Calico wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm
I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.
Clearly you need to let us know first so we can short the SPY in advance ok?

Calico
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Calico » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:28 pm

Sakura wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:20 pm
Calico wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm
I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.
Clearly you need to let us know first so we can short the SPY in advance ok?
It should be my civic duty. I'll try to let everyone know next year.

Or maybe I should sell some of my equities now so things shoot back up again tomorrow.

haha

I know it's just coincidence but it's just so uncanny. In the long run though, even with this horrible luck that seems to happen every time I invest a chunk of money, my portfolio is growing.

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:29 pm

Calico, the world's worst market timer...

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:34 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:04 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:58 pm
Well, today I actually rebalanced a bit. My Total Bond Market Index (which I will be trading out of over time) is up, and Total Stock Market is down, so I exchanged $15,000 in bond fund for $15,000 in stock fund.

Fortunately everything is in tax deferred, so no capital gains to worry about.

I'm hoping to be able to do this type transaction again. I believe it will be possible, perhaps even tomorrow.

Broken Man 1999
Just curious, why are you trading out of total bond?
Personal preference, I just prefer treasury bond funds. They aren't available in my VA, so I just exchanged for Total Stock Market Index. Accomplished my rebalance, so all is good.


Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:41 pm

I am the exact opposite. I come home today, see how the market did and then logged in to check on this thread to see how everyone is doing.

What I really want to know is if this is a RBD or are we really in free fall. Too bad the market closed before I even had the chance to think about rebalancing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:41 pm
What I really want to know is if this is a RBD or are we really in free fall. Too bad the market closed before I even had the chance to think about rebalancing.
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:47 pm
I would attribute this to wanting clicks/revenue way before I would to stupidity. These writ'er's know exactly what they are doing.
Very true. The media has known for a very long time that fear sells.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:02 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:41 pm
What I really want to know is if this is a RBD or are we really in free fall. Too bad the market closed before I even had the chance to think about rebalancing.
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
The stock market has been going up for so long, I think it’s been a Really Good Decade. RGD. We just need a few more. :happy

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:34 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:48 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:42 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:21 pm
Maybe S&P is finally headed to 1550. 50% drop and a test of the previous major resistance seems reasonable.
Yep. That's how I see it.
Then we reach a deal with China, the market skyrockets to all-new highs, and we all live happily, ever after.
My prediction is this will be strategically accomplished in the summer of 2020, just in time to juice things up before the fall election.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:43 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
For those who shorted the market at 6 AM it was a really good day. That is what the ETrade Baby did.

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:47 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:43 pm
livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
For those who shorted the market at 6 AM it was a really good day. That is what the ETrade Baby did.
Warning!

Short and you run the risk of losing your shorts. Don’t ever do that! You lose your Boglehead’s card automatically.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:49 pm

Maybe things will get bad enough so that I can refinance my mortgage to a far lower interest rate. Glass half full. :sharebeer
Institutions matter

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:51 pm

I removed a number of posts discussing fearmongering in the media. The discussion was getting derailed.

I also removed several posts debating a possible new name for this thread, along with conjecture on its continuance. We have two threads:

- U.S. stocks in free fall - market decreases
- U.S. stocks continue to soar! - market increases
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:55 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:43 pm
livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
For those who shorted the market at 6 AM it was a really good day. That is what the ETrade Baby did.
Yes, the etrade baby loves to buy the dip. :D
VTWAX and chill.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:08 pm

Tigermoose wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:49 pm
Maybe things will get bad enough so that I can refinance my mortgage to a far lower interest rate. Glass half full. :sharebeer
I haven't seen any appreciable change in mortgage rates even though the 10Y has dropped from 2.00 to 1.60. Very frustrating.
Don't do something, just stand there!

JiggyWillis
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JiggyWillis » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:08 pm

No bounce tomorrow. Today I bought a bunch of TSM with about 1/3 of my deployable reserve. Should be good for a few more days of free-fallin!

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:11 pm

corn18 wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:08 pm
Tigermoose wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:49 pm
Maybe things will get bad enough so that I can refinance my mortgage to a far lower interest rate. Glass half full. :sharebeer
I haven't seen any appreciable change in mortgage rates even though the 10Y has dropped from 2.00 to 1.60. Very frustrating.
It may take time. Banks seem to be slower to lower mortgage rates than raise them, while the inverse seems to be true of their savings accounts.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:14 pm

Cisco just confirmed a slow down. Not good.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:18 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:47 pm
Short and you run the risk of losing your shorts. Don’t ever do that! You lose your Boglehead’s card automatically.
Vanguard will let me trade options on margin. Isn't there a clause in Boglehead investing where one can invest a small percent in stupid stuff? I personally don't gamble with investments; that is what poker is for.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:19 pm

squirm wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:14 pm
Cisco just confirmed a slow down. Not good.
Hard to say. That's only one data point. The ISM Purchasing Manager Index is at 51.2%, which is very mildly positive. It's been steadily going down for months but is still in the 'favorable' range (i.e. > 50%) and may reverse that trend. Or not. YMMV.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:21 pm

Calico wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm
I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.
Well, at least we have somebody to blame. I can feel better now knowing who caused this.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Ricchan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ricchan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:39 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:21 pm
Calico wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm
I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.
Well, at least we have somebody to blame. I can feel better now knowing who caused this.
It is too easy to blame yourself, so I suggest we instead blame whoever happens to be in 1st place in the Bogleheads Contest at the time. Gather your pitchforks, everybody.

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:50 pm

One can not market time. Develop an asset allocation and stay the course.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:51 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:18 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:47 pm
Short and you run the risk of losing your shorts. Don’t ever do that! You lose your Boglehead’s card automatically.
Vanguard will let me trade options on margin. Isn't there a clause in Boglehead investing where one can invest a small percent in stupid stuff? I personally don't gamble with investments; that is what poker is for.
Yes. Jack Bogle has referred to this as a “funny money” account.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:01 pm

I told y'all so... Recession is coming. But I guess everyone already knows.

I have been directing half of new money to fixed income, awaiting to be deployed. I might direct 100% of new money to cash now.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:02 pm

Isn't volatility exciting :shock:
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Calico
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Calico » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:11 pm

Ricchan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:39 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:21 pm
Calico wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:18 pm
I am just here to apologize, the free fall is all my fault today (or at least it feels like I am cursed that way). I just moved 10% from an annuity (pre Boglehead investment). I was temped to buy into my Total Stock Market fund, but my asset allocation said that I needed to buy bonds with that money. I want to be 70/30 and I was about 80/20. So I bought into my bond fund first thing this morning and that made me right at 70/30 again. Now I am wishing I bought the TSM index fund at a discount.

This sort of things always seems to happen when I get that yearly annuity percentage to invest. When I was buying equities, the market would always drop after I bought.

Oh well, at least I am sticking to my plan.
Well, at least we have somebody to blame. I can feel better now knowing who caused this.
It is too easy to blame yourself, so I suggest we instead blame whoever happens to be in 1st place in the Bogleheads Contest at the time. Gather your pitchforks, everybody.
Hmm, I am number 567 on the list. I guess maybe it's not my fault (at least not yet).

I picked a heck of a morning to rebalance. But I do that every year when that 10% from the annuity is transferred. Time to hit the investment snooze button until next year when I get the next allocation from the annuity (I don't need to change my monthly investments at all as they are already 70/30).

But this kind of thing is exactly why I follow Jack Bogle's advice. His book was one of the best, if not the best personal finance books I ever read when it comes to improving things for me. In the long run his advice has served me well and I see no reason to deviate. I have an AA and I stick to it. Next year it changes though (I adjust the AA balance every 5 years to a larger percentage in bonds).

And it's also the reason I value to opinions of the people on this forum so much as well. Cheers! :sharebeer

jibantik
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:18 pm

Prediction: Nobody knows nothing. 8-)

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:24 pm

jibantik wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:18 pm
Prediction: Nobody knows nothing. 8-)
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