U.S. stocks in free fall

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bck63
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bck63 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.

bck63
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bck63 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:02 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:23 am
Perhaps another purpose of this thread that is actionable is that it provides a way to relieve any pressure for selling by virtue of habituation.
It absolutely helped me in this regard. This is a worthwhile thread. Thanks for thinking out of the box re: what is actionable.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm

bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
Over the long-term, I think that China has more to lose than the U.S. in this 'battle'. There are many other nations that would love to take over a big chunk of China's exports to the U.S. And this may encourage more U.S. and western hemisphere manufacturing as well.

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:35 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
I don't disagree with what you said. But to me, dead-cat bounce sums it up for today.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:49 pm

Nomura analysts are predicting a "Lehman style" crash end of this month... LOL! Let's see what transpires, I think where we finish this week will be telling...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace ... o_homepage

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
Over the long-term, I think that China has more to lose than the U.S. in this 'battle'. There are many other nations that would love to take over a big chunk of China's exports to the U.S. And this may encourage more U.S. and western hemisphere manufacturing as well.

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't. My suspicion is that we will overcome the three T's as well. To hear the rhetoric, would think we were all stepping off a landing craft to storm the beaches at Normandy.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:17 pm

H-Town wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:35 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
I don't disagree with what you said. But to me, dead-cat bounce sums it up for today.
More like a rubber ball bounce! Not a bad day.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:25 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:49 pm
Nomura analysts are predicting a "Lehman style" crash end of this month... LOL! Let's see what transpires, I think where we finish this week will be telling...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace ... o_homepage
He said the same thing two months ago and the S&P is up 3.5% from that time. He may be right eventually if he keeps predicting a crash evert month.
https://247wallst.com/investing/2019/06 ... ura-quant/

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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dogagility » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:34 pm

Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:26 am
dogagility wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:12 am
cpan00b wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm
Well to be fair we're down 6-7% from the all time high (not just 3% looking at today). But as others have said, nothing like last year's 20% dip. I'm sure it will get there though (and hopefully recover as quickly).
The only thing I'm quite sure of is that the stock market will be higher in ten years than it is today.
It's fun reading this thread as some post their angst and others banter tongue in cheek about market machinations. None of it is truly actionable.
You’re sure? How long did I the S&P take to recover to previous highs on an inflation-adjusted basis?
What previous highs are you referring to?
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:26 pm

dogagility wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:34 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:26 am
dogagility wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:12 am
cpan00b wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm
Well to be fair we're down 6-7% from the all time high (not just 3% looking at today). But as others have said, nothing like last year's 20% dip. I'm sure it will get there though (and hopefully recover as quickly).
The only thing I'm quite sure of is that the stock market will be higher in ten years than it is today.
It's fun reading this thread as some post their angst and others banter tongue in cheek about market machinations. None of it is truly actionable.
You’re sure? How long did I the S&P take to recover to previous highs on an inflation-adjusted basis?
What previous highs are you referring to?
The one 12 days ago perhaps. How soon we forget.

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Kevin M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kevin M » Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:54 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:20 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:51 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:09 pm
A 32-year and counting backtest of

1. 60% stocks 40% long treasuries
2. 60% stocks 40% total bond market
3. 60% stocks 40% cash

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... total3=100

Enough said.
Your quickness to ignore the impact of falling rates still intrigues me. I think the full 1955-2019 period is more telling (and still bodes well). I agree the future is unlikely to see this type of rate increases, but it is also unlikely (borderline fundamentally impossible) to see the same return from the bond side in the future. I still believe the volatility and uncorrelation will boost efficiency and returns.
If I thought interest rates had any likelihood of shooting up again in my lifetime, I would not have launched my Excellent Adventure.

As for "borderline fundamentally impossible", let me just point out that EDV has returned 20% YTD. Doesn't seem so impossible to me.
A drop from about 3% to about 2% on 20-30 year Treasuries gives you your 20% YTD return on long-term Treasuries. A drop from 2% to 1% gives you another 20%, and a drop from 1% to 0% gives you another 20%. That pretty much limits you to about 73% capital return (=1.2^3-1), to which you add the income return.

The Simba backtest spreadsheet shows long-term Treasury cumulative total return from 1982-2018 at about 2,400%. So yeah, it seems more than just borderline fundamentally impossible, but just impossible to earn 2,400% on long-term Treasuries over the next 37 years. This is especially true if you expect yields to remain low, since 2% compounded over 37 years only gives you a 108% income return.

Kevin
Wiki ||.......|| Suggested format for Asking Portfolio Questions (edit original post)

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:17 pm

Kevin M wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:54 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:20 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:51 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:09 pm
A 32-year and counting backtest of

1. 60% stocks 40% long treasuries
2. 60% stocks 40% total bond market
3. 60% stocks 40% cash

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... total3=100

Enough said.
Your quickness to ignore the impact of falling rates still intrigues me. I think the full 1955-2019 period is more telling (and still bodes well). I agree the future is unlikely to see this type of rate increases, but it is also unlikely (borderline fundamentally impossible) to see the same return from the bond side in the future. I still believe the volatility and uncorrelation will boost efficiency and returns.
If I thought interest rates had any likelihood of shooting up again in my lifetime, I would not have launched my Excellent Adventure.

As for "borderline fundamentally impossible", let me just point out that EDV has returned 20% YTD. Doesn't seem so impossible to me.
A drop from about 3% to about 2% on 20-30 year Treasuries gives you your 20% YTD return on long-term Treasuries. A drop from 2% to 1% gives you another 20%, and a drop from 1% to 0% gives you another 20%. That pretty much limits you to about 73% capital return (=1.2^3-1), to which you add the income return.

The Simba backtest spreadsheet shows long-term Treasury cumulative total return from 1982-2018 at about 2,400%. So yeah, it seems more than just borderline fundamentally impossible, but just impossible to earn 2,400% on long-term Treasuries over the next 37 years. This is especially true if you expect yields to remain low, since 2% compounded over 37 years only gives you a 108% income return.

Kevin
Thanks Kevin, you were the poster I was thinking about in the past who posted some quantitative results, glad to see it again here. Hedgefundie, again I agree with the premise of your strategy but just can't fathom how you can ignore the reasons it did SO well.

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:44 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
Over the long-term, I think that China has more to lose than the U.S. in this 'battle'. There are many other nations that would love to take over a big chunk of China's exports to the U.S. And this may encourage more U.S. and western hemisphere manufacturing as well.

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
Well...Brexit hasn’t actually happened. The real affect on the markets is still quite unknown and obviously not “priced in.”

TNOA
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TNOA » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:40 pm

fanmail wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:24 pm
S&P is now 100+ points off the lows from last night. I did say today would be interesting, lol.
wow, you knew it exactly. It has been an interesting day. Congrats...

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:58 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't. My suspicion is that we will overcome the three T's as well. To hear the rhetoric, would think we were all stepping off a landing craft to storm the beaches at Normandy.
I am a little worried with currency devaluation AND tariffs going on.

You guys all realize that ever-increasing tariffs and currency devaluation fights between countries is what caused the Great Depression, right?

Right?

(Note I am doing nothing... If Great Depression II happens - and it could - I'm prepared for that, and will stay the course).
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The J stands for Jay

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:59 pm

Kevin M wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:54 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:20 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:51 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:09 pm
A 32-year and counting backtest of

1. 60% stocks 40% long treasuries
2. 60% stocks 40% total bond market
3. 60% stocks 40% cash

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... total3=100

Enough said.
Your quickness to ignore the impact of falling rates still intrigues me. I think the full 1955-2019 period is more telling (and still bodes well). I agree the future is unlikely to see this type of rate increases, but it is also unlikely (borderline fundamentally impossible) to see the same return from the bond side in the future. I still believe the volatility and uncorrelation will boost efficiency and returns.
If I thought interest rates had any likelihood of shooting up again in my lifetime, I would not have launched my Excellent Adventure.

As for "borderline fundamentally impossible", let me just point out that EDV has returned 20% YTD. Doesn't seem so impossible to me.
A drop from about 3% to about 2% on 20-30 year Treasuries gives you your 20% YTD return on long-term Treasuries. A drop from 2% to 1% gives you another 20%, and a drop from 1% to 0% gives you another 20%. That pretty much limits you to about 73% capital return (=1.2^3-1), to which you add the income return.

The Simba backtest spreadsheet shows long-term Treasury cumulative total return from 1982-2018 at about 2,400%. So yeah, it seems more than just borderline fundamentally impossible, but just impossible to earn 2,400% on long-term Treasuries over the next 37 years. This is especially true if you expect yields to remain low, since 2% compounded over 37 years only gives you a 108% income return.

Kevin
This.
The J stands for Jay

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:22 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't. My suspicion is that we will overcome the three T's as well. To hear the rhetoric, would think we were all stepping off a landing craft to storm the beaches at Normandy.
I am a little worried with currency devaluation AND tariffs going on.

You guys all realize that ever-increasing tariffs and currency devaluation fights between countries is what caused the Great Depression, right?

Right?

(Note I am doing nothing... If Great Depression II happens - and it could - I'm prepared for that, and will stay the course).
Yes, that is something to keep an eye on. So far, it has been tit for tat but for some, like the farmers, the effects of this are starting to bite. Let's see what happens.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:45 pm

I removed an off-topic post. The discussion is starting to derail on conjecture regarding economic policy, not to mention a bit of politics. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
  • US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
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  • discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.
Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by finite_difference » Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:11 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:03 pm
bck63 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:57 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm
Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Love this. +1000. Let's hope.
Well, today the markets discovered that the world didn't end after all. Markets up but only recovering a part of yesterday's losses. Hard to say exactly what is going on, first I thought these tariffs were to gain negotiating leverage. There are bigger geopolitical things going on here and I think there is a bigger picture here. Too bad, the US and China would be great friends and many mutual benefits from trade but certain events have changed things. One thing to look at is Hong Kong.
Over the long-term, I think that China has more to lose than the U.S. in this 'battle'. There are many other nations that would love to take over a big chunk of China's exports to the U.S. And this may encourage more U.S. and western hemisphere manufacturing as well.

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't. My suspicion is that we will overcome the three T's as well. To hear the rhetoric, would think we were all stepping off a landing craft to storm the beaches at Normandy.
Well, I’m pretty sure the UK is screwed.

A trade war between two countries can do enormous damage or a little damage or somewhere in between, but everything I’ve read points to it being pretty much a lose-lose situation. The Irish potato famines were exacerbated by tariffs. The 1973 oil crisis was caused by a trade war*.

*In my opinion, war on trade falls under the umbrella of a “trade war” — whether it’s tariffs or an embargo, etc. Currently we are in fact experiencing both.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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David Jay
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by David Jay » Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:20 pm

Admiral wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:05 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:00 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:13 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 pm
S&P 500 is down an additional 1.8% from close in After Hours trading so tomorrow is going to be another episode of F-f-freee fallin...
Maybe, maybe not. Remember how S&P futures were tanking the night of the presidential election only to rally during the next session?

The thing about stock volatility is that when it rears its head, it can and has often quickly switched directions.
Told ya! :wink: Mr. Market can change his mind on a dime.
I didn't realize "Mr." was the Market's preferred pronoun... :wink:
“Mr. Market” was coined in a classic allegory by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book “The Intelligent Investor”: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CmlT5tbcaK0
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dogagility » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:52 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:26 pm
dogagility wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:34 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:26 am
dogagility wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:12 am
cpan00b wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm
Well to be fair we're down 6-7% from the all time high (not just 3% looking at today). But as others have said, nothing like last year's 20% dip. I'm sure it will get there though (and hopefully recover as quickly).
The only thing I'm quite sure of is that the stock market will be higher in ten years than it is today.
It's fun reading this thread as some post their angst and others banter tongue in cheek about market machinations. None of it is truly actionable.
You’re sure? How long did I the S&P take to recover to previous highs on an inflation-adjusted basis?
What previous highs are you referring to?
The one 12 days ago perhaps. How soon we forget.
12 days seems less than 10 years.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:32 am

David Jay wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:20 pm
“Mr. Market” was coined in a classic allegory by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book “The Intelligent Investor”:
1949 was so politically incorrect. Person market futures just threw a hissy fit because of the rate cuts going on around the world.

It may be time to invest in freeze dried food and shotguns, not the stock but the actual items. :shock:

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:51 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:32 am
David Jay wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:20 pm
“Mr. Market” was coined in a classic allegory by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book “The Intelligent Investor”:
1949 was so politically incorrect. Person market futures just threw a hissy fit because of the rate cuts going on around the world.

It may be time to invest in freeze dried food and shotguns, not the stock but the actual items. :shock:
Yeah futures were up pretty strong about an hour ago and just reversed. Was wondering what happened.

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am

We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
Funding secured

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am

Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:26 am

CULater wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
I’m not sure that’s what Dr. Bernstein meant by it. Why a minimal allocation? I think an equity allocation on top of a sufficient fixed income Liability Matching Portfolio is fine.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

caffeperfavore
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by caffeperfavore » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:30 am

finite_difference wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:11 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't.
Well, I’m pretty sure the UK is screwed.

A trade war between two countries can do enormous damage or a little damage or somewhere in between, but everything I’ve read points to it being pretty much a lose-lose situation. The Irish potato famines were exacerbated by tariffs. The 1973 oil crisis was caused by a trade war*.

*In my opinion, war on trade falls under the umbrella of a “trade war” — whether it’s tariffs or an embargo, etc. Currently we are in fact experiencing both.
Did I miss something? I'm confused with all this talk of Brexit, like it was in the past. Rather, it seems to be a slow moving event like an ocean liner that's spotted the iceberg and is now trying to steer around it. I thought we were still in Act 1 and haven't figured out how it will play out over time. Why is it no longer viewed as a factor economically? Or is it?

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:40 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
sold all equities in Jan2018
Link?

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:42 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
I agree there is a pending black swan(s), lots of charts to showing some eye-opening macro events occurring.

Don't think you'll get so lucky as to see DOW @ 16k however...

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:51 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
I'd bet my farm that you'll get back in equity at some point in the future. Maybe when stock takes 50% hit or even earlier than that. Why bad mouth the equity market? It's far from over. It's the foundation of U.S. financial system. If it failed, forget about your wealth. I doubt that you still have purchasing power with your treasuries, TIPS, etc. We all would be lucky to put food on our table.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am

And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:03 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:42 am
I agree there is a pending black swan(s), lots of charts to showing some eye-opening macro events occurring.

Don't think you'll get so lucky as to see DOW @ 16k however...

:beer
There are charts out there showing anything your mind wants to see, and analysts backing them up with "facts" (based on what happened in the past) and "expertise" who have convinced themselves that they can predict the future.

Those who are wrong (about half) will drift into irrelevancy. Those who are right (the other half) will be media stars until their next prediction crashes and burns.

Or so it seems to me. :wink:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
Perhaps anyone who made big moves on Monday or Tuesday also learned something.

bighatnohorse
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bighatnohorse » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:16 am

This is the time to sell. (think: lower capital gains)
And buy. It's called "re-balancing".

And those with annuities can pat themselves on the back.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:20 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
Perhaps anyone who made big moves on Monday or Tuesday also learned something.
Perhaps the “long Treasuries are super risky and not suitable for your portfolio, rates can only go up from here” crowd also learned something.

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:21 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.
You may be right this time, i have no idea.

But, didn't you say the same thing during the December downturn?
And probably every dip in the last couple of years?

Will you eventually be right? I have no doubt that a crash will eventually occur, i just have no idea when that will be. As far as I can tell, neither do you.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:22 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
Perhaps. I took a bunch of money out of equities during the Euro insolvency crisis, brilliantly timed. That mistake cost me, I would guess, $1000 for every nickel I've lost in the last week. That's just a guess.

The important thing is to understand that beginning and end dates change the answer if you're dispassionate about it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:24 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.

I love this thread. This is hilarious.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:26 am

Man came down from Chicago
He gonna set that levee right
He says, "it needs to be at least three feet higher
It won't make it through the night"

But the old man down in the Quarter
He said "don't you listen to that boy
The water be down by the morning
And he'll be back to Illinois"

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:28 am

Permanent Portfolio looking pretty good lately: 25% in long bonds, 25% in gold. I'll take it.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
All stock has the greatest risk and the greatest reward. If one never has to sell stock it is the most profitable way to invest. This has been proven on the field of play.

All stock is not for the faint of heart or those who need to live off their investments.
bighatnohorse wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:16 am
And those with annuities can pat themselves on the back.
And be all stock.
Last edited by J G Bankerton on Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

EddyB
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EddyB » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:32 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
Perhaps the people who can barely handle the volatility in a 30% stock position in normal times are the ones being shaken out.

mattshwink
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mattshwink » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:33 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
I was 100% in 2008. I stayed the course. I was ~94% last year. I stayed the course. I was between 92% and 94% on Monday. I stayed the course.

I didn't learn anything new, I reaffirmed what I already knew - I have a higher than average risk tolerance. I am 44 years old. I am probably 10-20 years from retirement with 30-40 years of retirement beyond that. I don't really care what the market did yesterday, today, or tomorrow. I care about what the decades long future trend is. If the market goes down, great (for me), the four times a month 401k buys in my household will obtain more shares (and dividends and capital gains will as well). If the market goes up, great, I might be able to retire closer to 10 years than 20.

No matter what the market does, I will follow my IPS and continue the slow march to 60-40 over the next 16 years.
Last edited by mattshwink on Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:36 am

marcopolo wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:21 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.
You may be right this time, i have no idea.

But, didn't you say the same thing during the December downturn?
And probably every dip in the last couple of years?

Will you eventually be right? I have no doubt that a crash will eventually occur, i just have no idea when that will be. As far as I can tell, neither do you.
He said DOW 16000 in 12-18 months in January 2018 . He's already missed his first prediction.

I would suggest that he has proven that he can't predict the future any better than I can.
The J stands for Jay

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:37 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock has the greatest risk and the greatest reward. If one never has to sell stock it is the most profitable way to invest. This has been proven on the field of play.

All stock is not for the faint of hart or those who need to live off their investments.
How come you always claim to have cash to buy on dips then? Are you saying you are "faint of heart"?
The J stands for Jay

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:43 am

lostdog wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:24 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.

I love this thread. This is hilarious.
I’m just waiting for someone to say “yawn,” but that usually happens when the market dips a bit more. I like to look at the long term S&P chart and always think it looks pretty good. :happy

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:47 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:37 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock has the greatest risk and the greatest reward.
How come you always claim to have cash to buy on dips then?
I have a venture capital fund. Not really an investment. If there is truly a free-fall a good deal can be had on used Rolex Presidents or new Mustang GTs. I did tap into it this month to buy stocks but it will be paid back as long as VTI stays above 143.

finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by finite_difference » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:49 am

caffeperfavore wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:30 am
finite_difference wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:11 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:19 pm

I suspect that the lasting impacts of this on the stock market will be little more than that of Brexit.
I thought the U.K. was like, you know, over. Brexit was the end of the world until it wasn't.
Well, I’m pretty sure the UK is screwed.

A trade war between two countries can do enormous damage or a little damage or somewhere in between, but everything I’ve read points to it being pretty much a lose-lose situation. The Irish potato famines were exacerbated by tariffs. The 1973 oil crisis was caused by a trade war*.

*In my opinion, war on trade falls under the umbrella of a “trade war” — whether it’s tariffs or an embargo, etc. Currently we are in fact experiencing both.
Did I miss something? I'm confused with all this talk of Brexit, like it was in the past. Rather, it seems to be a slow moving event like an ocean liner that's spotted the iceberg and is now trying to steer around it. I thought we were still in Act 1 and haven't figured out how it will play out over time. Why is it no longer viewed as a factor economically? Or is it?
Permanent damage has already been done. It’s just a question of how bad at this point, but it looks pretty bleak. Because of Brexit, London is no longer the financial capital of Europe. Factories that would have been created in the UK are now being shifted to the EU.

The UK was *the* place to do business and get access to the EU market, because of its financial and regulatory superiority. Now that’s all been completely upset.

Of course, in ten years maybe the UK can pull itself up by its bootstraps and come back stronger than before. It’s possible.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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