U.S. stocks in free fall

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey »

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Random Poster wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:47 pm Vanguard's webpage and iphone app are running extremely slow for me. It is downright non-responsive, really.
Sorry, my buy bots overloaded the system.
Boom!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am I missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?
I'm not an official "Boglehead," but the only thing I'm doing to my 35/65 portfolio today is NOT checking the balance -- even though my Treasuries and other bonds will temper the loss.

As I kept telling myself in 2008, when I refused to check my statements for most of the year: "Even though the value of them has dropped for now, I still own all the assets." :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

So the S&P is back where it was June 6th. Not all that bad really.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou »

Bluce wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:47 pm What happened to the "Stocks continue to soar!" thread? :confused
It’s been changed to”Stocks continue to sore!” :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomatoTomahto »

goodenyou wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:26 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:47 pm What happened to the "Stocks continue to soar!" thread? :confused
It’s been changed to”Stocks continue to sore!” :shock:
:D funny
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pokebowl »

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:02 pm I did my best; my last buy of VTI at 144 is up 0.79%; let the good times roll. :greedy
So thats where my money went.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bligh »

samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am I missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?

Unless you are seeing one of us post in one thread to buy and hold, whilst simultaneously posting about how we are selling our positions, no one is a hypocrite here. There are plenty of market timers, single stock holders, crypto currency holders, options traders, holders of actively managed funds... and plenty of other "non-boglehead" ideas over here. It is an investment and personal finance community, there are multiple points of view expressed and that is a good thing.

Personally I check my balances daily. I do not ignore the noise, I watch it. I have not attempted to market time _yet_, and have pretty much stayed the course since I started being a Boglehead 3 years ago. I have been tempted to rebalance out of International stocks due to recent performance... I won't say that I will always stay the course into the future. I am not completely against market timing, or making course corrections.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Admiral »

H-Town wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:18 pm
samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am.i missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?
~20K is not significant? Eh? Ups or downs... 3% movement a day is significant.
On a purely percentage basis, a 3% drop in the S&P is nowhere near the top (or bottom, depending on how you view it) in terms of historical daily losses. Not saying it's not a decent drop, but we should keep it in perspective.

Rank* Date Close Net Change % Change
6 2008-10-15 907.84 −90.17 −9.04
10 2008-12-01 816.21 −80.03 −8.93
2 2008-09-29 1,106.39 −106.62 −8.79
14 2008-10-09 909.92 −75.02 −7.62
19 1997-10-27 876.99 −64.65 −6.87
15 1998-08-31 957.28 −69.86 −6.80
11 2011-08-08 1,119.46 −79.91 −6.66
9 2000-04-14 1,356.56 −83.95 −5.83
20 2008-10-07 996.23 −60.66 −5.74
1 2018-02-05 2,648.94 −113.19 −4.10
12 2015-08-24 1,893.21 −77.68 −3.94
3 2018-02-08 2,581.00 −100.66 −3.75
13 2016-06-24 2,037.41 −75.92 −3.59
4 2018-10-10 2,785.68 −94.66 −3.29
5 2018-12-04 2,700.06 −90.30 −3.24
18 2015-08-21 1,970.89 −64.85 −3.19
8 2018-10-24 2,656.10 −84.59 −3.09
* Note ranking is based on dollars, not percentages
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

And who said Bogleheads don't peek?

It's great to see my favorite BH thread active again! I hope the tone remains this jovial.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Leif »

nedsaid wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Because you mentioned Vietnam I have a story. I was visiting earlier this year. Students sometime walk up and start a conversation to practice their English. I asked if he thinks some production will shift to Vietnam. He said he doubts it because they don't have the Engineers that China has.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Leif wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:00 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Because you mentioned Vietnam I have a story. I was visiting earlier this year. Students sometime walk up and start a conversation to practice their English. I asked if he thinks some production will shift to Vietnam. He said he doubts it because they don't have the Engineers that China has.
The real problem is that companies need stability to make a huge decision like that. A CEO doesn't want to spend $100 million on a new plant in Vietnam, and then a month later, everything swings back the other way in the China trade war.

Until the trade war is resolved, and terms are understood, it's hard to make large capital expenditures.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Admiral »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:03 pm
Leif wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:00 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Because you mentioned Vietnam I have a story. I was visiting earlier this year. Students sometime walk up and start a conversation to practice their English. I asked if he thinks some production will shift to Vietnam. He said he doubts it because they don't have the Engineers that China has.
The real problem is that companies need stability to make a huge decision like that. A CEO doesn't want to spend $100 million on a new plant in Vietnam, and then a month later, everything swings back the other way in the China trade war.

Until the trade war is resolved, and terms are understood, it's hard to make large capital expenditures.
I would add to that: CEOs and markets also like fiscal and monetary stability (and predictability). Not to mention an independent Fed not subject to the political winds and whims of the day. When there's nobody capable in the driver's seat, they get jittery.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:43 pm
tadamsmar wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:31 pm
samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am I missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?
You're missing the fact that we are all just innocently checking for juicy ripe tax-losses to havest.
Be aware that such an action accelerates a sell-off.
No, it doesn't because they are immediately repurchasing a very similar, though not strictly identical, asset.

And if everyone on this forum sold everything they have in stocks all at the same moment, I'm not sure that it would produce a measurable effect.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic »

H-Town wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:18 pm
samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am.i missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?
~20K is not significant? Eh? Ups or downs... 3% movement a day is significant.
Humble brag, lol. 3% for me is like $2,500. What's especially painful for me is these recent drops when I'm finally within striking distance of hitting the magical $100,000. :annoyed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

H-Town wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:18 pm
samsoes wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:17 pm Wait, what? :confused

I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am.i missing something, or are there hypocrites among us?
~20K is not significant? Eh? Ups or downs... 3% movement a day is significant.
Maybe. But when you consider the historic regularity of -10% corrections, -3% doesn't look like much. We nearly had a -20% bear market last year, more than six times today's drop.

Putting real dollars to those percentages can amplify how big the drops seem, but I personally see no need to do so.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

I wouldn't cross the street for a "3% off sale," which is why I don't react to days like this. Long term is the only term.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by cpan00b »

Well to be fair we're down 6-7% from the all time high (not just 3% looking at today). But as others have said, nothing like last year's 20% dip. I'm sure it will get there though (and hopefully recover as quickly).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rus In Urbe »

bluce wrote:
As I kept telling myself in 2008, when I refused to check my statements for most of the year: "Even though the value of them has dropped for now, I still own all the assets." :beer
Yes. That kind of thinking got me through the last two big ones and kept me buying at a discount.

Here's to rational thinking. So little of it around at times like this. :beer Rus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

S&P futures are down about 50+ from the close, so it could be another interesting day tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tdubs »

fanmail wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:11 pm S&P futures are down about 50+ from the close, so it could be another interesting day tomorrow.
Beat me to it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

I might do a little rebalancing into VTI tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Helo80 »

Today's going to be tough tallying all of the losses.....

... but I did panic buy a few VTSAX shares, so at least I have that going for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Helo80 »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:19 pm I wouldn't cross the street for a "3% off sale," which is why I don't react to days like this. Long term is the only term.


I get that, but if you're fundamentally thinking long-term, it's okay to get more shares today than you would have yesterday.... The internet and communications have made it such that you can literally place a trade in the amount of time it takes to use the number 1 restroom facility.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater »

DOW futures are down 400+. Happy Tuesday!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Admiral wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:46 pm
Rank* Date Close Net Change % Change
6 2008-10-15 907.84 −90.17 −9.04
10 2008-12-01 816.21 −80.03 −8.93
2 2008-09-29 1,106.39 −106.62 −8.79
14 2008-10-09 909.92 −75.02 −7.62
19 1997-10-27 876.99 −64.65 −6.87
15 1998-08-31 957.28 −69.86 −6.80
11 2011-08-08 1,119.46 −79.91 −6.66
9 2000-04-14 1,356.56 −83.95 −5.83
20 2008-10-07 996.23 −60.66 −5.74
1 2018-02-05 2,648.94 −113.19 −4.10
12 2015-08-24 1,893.21 −77.68 −3.94
3 2018-02-08 2,581.00 −100.66 −3.75
13 2016-06-24 2,037.41 −75.92 −3.59
4 2018-10-10 2,785.68 −94.66 −3.29
5 2018-12-04 2,700.06 −90.30 −3.24
18 2015-08-21 1,970.89 −64.85 −3.19
8 2018-10-24 2,656.10 −84.59 −3.09

* Note ranking is based on dollars, not percentages
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index
I assume you mean index points, not dollars . . . ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Rus In Urbe wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm bluce wrote:
As I kept telling myself in 2008, when I refused to check my statements for most of the year: "Even though the value of them has dropped for now, I still own all the assets." :beer
Yes. That kind of thinking got me through the last two big ones and kept me buying at a discount.

Here's to rational thinking. So little of it around at times like this. :beer Rus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

fanmail wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:11 pm S&P futures are down about 50+ from the close, so it could be another interesting day tomorrow.
Down only 38 points now, still over 1%. I hope those who need their investments for income have the proper asset allocation. Days like today make me happy I'm annuitized and my investments are not critical.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Helo80 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:20 pm I get that, but if you're fundamentally thinking long-term, it's okay to get more shares today than you would have yesterday.... The internet and communications have made it such that you can literally place a trade in the amount of time it takes to use the number 1 restroom facility.
Who remembers the days when you had to write out a check, put it in an envelope and snail-mail it to some mutual fund company to buy shares? If you were a market timer and you wanted to get out of an equity fund today (or in a few days) and go to cash, well good luck.

I hooked up with Schwab online in 1997 -- wow what a difference.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia »

I’m had already planned to watch “The Big Short” this evening. :shock: :o
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

Bluce wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:47 pm What happened to the "Stocks continue to soar!" thread? :confused
Markets got all crashy again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

Bluce wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:49 pm
Helo80 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:20 pm I get that, but if you're fundamentally thinking long-term, it's okay to get more shares today than you would have yesterday.... The internet and communications have made it such that you can literally place a trade in the amount of time it takes to use the number 1 restroom facility.
Who remembers the days when you had to write out a check, put it in an envelope and snail-mail it to some mutual fund company to buy shares? If you were a market timer and you wanted to get out of an equity fund today (or in a few days) and go to cash, well good luck.

I hooked up with Schwab online in 1997 -- wow what a difference.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius »

The thread began on August 8th, 2011. A $10,000 investment in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund made on August 8th, 2011 would now be worth $28,365.

OK, allowing for inflation, $28,365 today is only worth $25,317 in year-2011 dollars.

Even so... the stock market would/will need to lose -60% in order to be back where it was, in real terms, when the thread started.

Furthermore, the earnings on money market funds and bank accounts have been so low until recently that unless the stock market loses about -50%, it will still be better to have had your money in stocks than to have left it in a money market fund or a bank.

Certainly, the stock market could/can lose -60%. But since 2011 the stock market has built up a pretty good cushion. It could lose a lot without losing all its gains.

Source

Image
Last edited by nisiprius on Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

S&P 500 is down an additional 1.8% from close in After Hours trading so tomorrow is going to be another episode of F-f-freee fallin...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Well, I am really glad I got that equity sale in at the open today for some cash I need to raise. Less thrilled about my rebalance into UPRO (3x S&P500 fund) last week for a side-portfolio, but no intention to bail on that strategy anytime soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia »

I see that a prominent China ETF (FLCH) was down 4.24% today. I don’t have any direct exposure to that country, but today felt a bit scary.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 pm S&P 500 is down an additional 1.8% from close in After Hours trading so tomorrow is going to be another episode of F-f-freee fallin...
Maybe, maybe not. Remember how S&P futures were tanking the night of the presidential election only to rally during the next session?

The thing about stock volatility is that when it rears its head, it can and has often quickly switched directions.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:13 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 pm S&P 500 is down an additional 1.8% from close in After Hours trading so tomorrow is going to be another episode of F-f-freee fallin...
Maybe, maybe not. Remember how S&P futures were tanking the night of the presidential election only to rally during the next session?

The thing about stock volatility is that when it rears its head, it can and has often quickly switched directions.
Just 280 characters away from a huge momentum swing at any time :sharebeer .
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AerialWombat »

I made my September 401k contribution today, so I can buy into tomorrow’s continued slide. If that’s market timing, then guilty as charged! :beer

The fact that I’m not freaking out tells me that I finally have my portfolio selections dialed in where they need to be.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by greenhill »

I am a Hong Konger. This "free fall" does not look too bad compared to my home country. I cherish that I invest in the boglehead way :beer.

[OT comment removed -- mod oldcomputerguy]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

It's nice :) that my monthly Required Minimum Redistribution was August 1.

I have seen worse than today's market, so am not concerned. I haven't even hit a rebalancing band. As nisiprius points out, we are still far ahead of where we were at the start of this free fall thread
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:59 pm Certainly, the stock market could/can lose -60%. But since 2011 the stock market has built up a pretty good cushion. It could lose a lot without losing all its gains.
Most of us rebalanced on the way up, and even went with a more conservative allocation over the years, as we approached retirement.

Those gains are locked in. I ain't giving them back.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Seasonal wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:10 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
It appears that some production is shifting from China to other countries, rather than coming to the US. The trade deficit with China is decreasing, while the overall trade deficit (ignoring OPEC) is increasing. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBEswqaXsAEEV5r?format=jpg

Those other countries are more expensive (otherwise, production would have been there), which means higher prices.

The market may be a proxy for whether it's bad economically.
With the trade deficit with China decreasing, you should see China being a smaller net purchaser of Treasuries. Pretty much, China holds excess dollars from the trade imbalance and can do three things with them: buy US Treasuries, invest in the United States, or buy US products. Pretty much making a sectoral balances argument. Foreign Account + Government Account + Private Sector Account = 0.

The costs of manufacturing in China have been going up too, no longer the lowest cost place for manufacturing.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Leif wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:00 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlier Asian countries like Vietnam. There will be adjustments in the markets and in the economy but I am not so sure all of this is so bad. I actually am a free trader type of guy but even I have limits. There are plenty of other Asian countries that excel in manufacturing.
Because you mentioned Vietnam I have a story. I was visiting earlier this year. Students sometime walk up and start a conversation to practice their English. I asked if he thinks some production will shift to Vietnam. He said he doubts it because they don't have the Engineers that China has.
Did China always have lots of engineers?

The need for engineers depends upon what you are producing, lower end stuff like textiles or higher end like tech gadgets, autos, aircraft, etc.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

DOW futures set to fall over 600 tomorrow: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/dow-fut ... treet.html
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:52 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:59 pm Certainly, the stock market could/can lose -60%. But since 2011 the stock market has built up a pretty good cushion. It could lose a lot without losing all its gains.
Most of us rebalanced on the way up, and even went with a more conservative allocation over the years, as we approached retirement.

Those gains are locked in. I ain't giving them back.
Yup, same here. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GatorFL »

I'm a "cheating" Boglehead. I used the cheating word, because I was very anxious where the market was last month, and I just felt like the rhetoric surrounding the lack of a trade deal started to smell like an old egg salad sandwich left in the fridge too long.

I had a 70/30 portfolio, 60% VTI, 10% VXUS, and 30% BND prior to July 12th. The S&P was 3013 on 7/12.

I sold all of the VTI and the VXUS on 7/12 and parked all of the cash into PVOXX, a money market fund that yields about 2.39%. I am a self-directed investor, but still called Merrill Edge folks to confirm the limit orders because I don't trade much at all. At the time, I just felt like I needed a break as I am 2-3 years away from retiring. I worked really hard to get that money, and I just didn't want to lose principal after a nice 1st half of 2019. I held onto BND.

For now, I will sit on the money market with the VTI/VXUS proceeds.

Yes, I did market time. Its the first time in the 3 years I have been following the boglehead strategy. I feel both happy about the avoided loss and a little weird about it. Now of course the decision about re-entry....

Gator
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:17 pm DOW futures set to fall over 600 tomorrow: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/dow-fut ... treet.html
Dow now down just 300 points (per the updated headline).

So the Dow Futures are UP 300 points in the last 30 minutes! Bring on the "soaring" thread!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bacchus01 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:01 pm S&P 500 is down an additional 1.8% from close in After Hours trading so tomorrow is going to be another episode of F-f-freee fallin...
Guess I’ll have to TLH even more. Looks like I will completely TLH all 2018/2019 contributions by end of day tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bacchus01 »

ruralavalon wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:42 pm It's nice :) that my monthly Required Minimum Redistribution was August 1.

I have seen worse than today's market, so am not concerned. I haven't even hit a rebalancing band. As nisiprius points out, we are still far ahead of where we were at the start of this free fall thread
How is that nice? Or is that sarcasm?
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