U.S. stocks in free fall

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

Jimsad wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:27 am
J G Bankerton wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:16 am May's numbers are in and it looks like a good time to buy.
Not yet . I think it will drop a lot more
Then buy more.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by The Wizard »

lostdog wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:22 pm
"The three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears".

LMAO
Bankerton has his moments, yes...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by The Wizard »

jibantik wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:44 am
The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:51 am
That depends on how much money and how long.
In my case, I'm dealing with <1% of portfolio value on the first of each month.
And the goal is to get that excess cash invested in my taxable account on a good buying day during the month.
Simple...
Unless you can travel in the past, or you can see the future, then today is the best day. Today is better than tomorrow or the next day, or any future day.
That's not necessarily true, unless you're asserting that the S&P 500 will not fall below its closing price on 5/31 in the next few weeks, which is entirely possible...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by motorcyclesarecool »

The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:32 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:22 pm
"The three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears".

LMAO
Bankerton has his moments, yes...
JCPenney seems like it will outlast Sears. I’d rather have one of those.
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik »

The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:40 pm
jibantik wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:44 am
The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:51 am
That depends on how much money and how long.
In my case, I'm dealing with <1% of portfolio value on the first of each month.
And the goal is to get that excess cash invested in my taxable account on a good buying day during the month.
Simple...
Unless you can travel in the past, or you can see the future, then today is the best day. Today is better than tomorrow or the next day, or any future day.
That's not necessarily true, unless you're asserting that the S&P 500 will not fall below its closing price on 5/31 in the next few weeks, which is entirely possible...
I am not asserting that. I am asserting that no one knows. Hence the best time to get in is now rather than later.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

jibantik wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:14 am
The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:40 pm
jibantik wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:44 am
The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:51 am
That depends on how much money and how long.
In my case, I'm dealing with <1% of portfolio value on the first of each month.
And the goal is to get that excess cash invested in my taxable account on a good buying day during the month.
Simple...
Unless you can travel in the past, or you can see the future, then today is the best day. Today is better than tomorrow or the next day, or any future day.
That's not necessarily true, unless you're asserting that the S&P 500 will not fall below its closing price on 5/31 in the next few weeks, which is entirely possible...
I am not asserting that. I am asserting that no one knows. Hence the best time to get in is now rather than later.
In other words you can only buy in the present.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

GoldenFinch wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 3:43 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 3:00 pm My EM stock was up .49% today. :D
Exciting :wink:
It gets even more exciting if you look back a year. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mrspock »

The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:51 am
jibantik wrote: Mon May 20, 2019 10:34 am
...If you have money to buy when there is a sale, you should have already had that money in the market. You shouldn't hold money around to buy when there is a sale. Time in the market, not timing the market.
That depends on how much money and how long.
In my case, I'm dealing with <1% of portfolio value on the first of each month.
And the goal is to get that excess cash invested in my taxable account on a good buying day during the month.
Simple...
But honestly.... how much does this really matter? If it's a psychological thing you do, then go for it, but I really don't think in the grade scheme of thing this matters. I also suspect if you tracked your outcomes, you'd find you get it wrong more than you get it right over a decade or more due to the fact that the market spends 2/3's of the time going upward than down (so the odds are stacked against you). Pure drag on your portfolio...

Just dump the money in, and TLH as you see opportunities to do so.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

ruralavalon wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:27 am... In other words you can only buy in the present.
You can buy in the future, but relative to the current price there is a cost for waiting.
You could get the option of buying in the future at the present price (and pay a premium to do so), or sell your willingness to have the stock put to you at the current price at a future date (and earn a premium).
So if it's something you want to buy, and know you're going to buy at some point regardless, waiting around hoping the price goes lower (regardless if it goes up or down) is costing you even if you don't monetize the present value of that "option".
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:54 am So if it's something you want to buy, and know you're going to buy at some point regardless, waiting around hoping the price goes lower (regardless if it goes up or down) is costing you even if you don't monetize the present value of that "option".
I'm going to buy something but I don't know what. I collect other things besides VTI.

S&P futures are down 0.56%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

J G Bankerton wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:48 pm
S&P futures are down 0.56%
Futures are notoriously inaccurate as to what will happen tomorrow.. we still haven't seen much panic, Vix is at 18.. in Dec we had 1000+ Dow drop days, so far down days have been muted.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:14 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:48 pm
S&P futures are down 0.56%
Futures are notoriously inaccurate as to what will happen tomorrow.. we still haven't seen much panic, Vix is at 18.. in Dec we had 1000+ Dow drop days, so far down days have been muted.
Source? You’re saying we are equally likely to have an up day?
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:14 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:48 pm
S&P futures are down 0.56%
Futures are notoriously inaccurate as to what will happen tomorrow..
I make no predictions about tomorrow's open.
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andronikus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andronikus »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:14 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:48 pm
S&P futures are down 0.56%
Futures are notoriously inaccurate as to what will happen tomorrow.. we still haven't seen much panic, Vix is at 18.. in Dec we had 1000+ Dow drop days, so far down days have been muted.
While response has been muted, I think we have much more serious issues now than we did in December, and Geo-political tensions are continuing to escalate.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

andronikus wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:14 am While response has been muted, I think we have much more serious issues now than we did in December, and Geo-political tensions are continuing to escalate.
It is all economic talk type tensions. All it would take for the mother of all rallies is for a few trade agreements to be signed.

I would not want to be out of the market when that happens. :greedy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo.

One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels.

Furthermore, you have the ever favorite yield curve inversion topic. 2/3 month vs 10 yr treasury curve continues to steepen. Last week, treasury yields saw some of the largest declines in several years as more and more individuals are increasingly pricing in a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.
I buy and hold because of black swans. I started buying the dips when Bentley the dog got Ebola. So far so good.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo.

One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels.

Furthermore, you have the ever favorite yield curve inversion topic. 2/3 month vs 10 yr treasury curve continues to steepen. Last week, treasury yields saw some of the largest declines in several years as more and more individuals are increasingly pricing in a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.

:beer
The purchasing manager index (PMI) dropped last month to 52.1%; it was over 60% last August. Levels below 50% have generally portended a recession.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:55 am The purchasing manager index (PMI) dropped last month to 52.1%; it was over 60% last August. Levels below 50% have generally portended a recession.
The reason for the purchasing manager's caution is uncertainty about tariffs. The tariff uncertainty can disappear in a day; when that happens I would not want to be out of the market. The up side of the "V" will be fast and furious. :greedy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo.

One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels.

Furthermore, you have the ever favorite yield curve inversion topic. 2/3 month vs 10 yr treasury curve continues to steepen. Last week, treasury yields saw some of the largest declines in several years as more and more individuals are increasingly pricing in a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.

:beer
Good observation. The inverse yield curve is one of the main factors that would tell me it's close to a recession.

Since this March, I have started putting aside $6k a month to Marcus. I still continue automatic contribution to max tax advantage accounts and some in brokerage accounts. But when a recession hit in a couple of year, I'll get a $100k+ head start to buy low. If there's no recession, I would still have a nice saving setting aside. The different of the gain over 2.25% rate from Marcus for 2 years would be minimal compared to the benefit I would get if there's an actual recession.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:38 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo.

One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels.

Furthermore, you have the ever favorite yield curve inversion topic. 2/3 month vs 10 yr treasury curve continues to steepen. Last week, treasury yields saw some of the largest declines in several years as more and more individuals are increasingly pricing in a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.

:beer
Good observation. The inverse yield curve is one of the main factors that would tell me it's close to a recession.

Since this March, I have started putting aside $6k a month to Marcus. I still continue automatic contribution to max tax advantage accounts and some in brokerage accounts. But when a recession hit in a couple of year, I'll get a $100k+ head start to buy low. If there's no recession, I would still have a nice saving setting aside. The different of the gain over 2.25% rate from Marcus for 2 years would be minimal compared to the benefit I would get if there's an actual recession.
Market timing to the truest form, but good luck.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cycle »

H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:38 am
Good observation. The inverse yield curve is one of the main factors that would tell me it's close to a recession.

Since this March, I have started putting aside $6k a month to Marcus. I still continue automatic contribution to max tax advantage accounts and some in brokerage accounts. But when a recession hit in a couple of year, I'll get a $100k+ head start to buy low. If there's no recession, I would still have a nice saving setting aside. The different of the gain over 2.25% rate from Marcus for 2 years would be minimal compared to the benefit I would get if there's an actual recession.
With this timing money, at what point do you get back in?

It's very possible US stocks (aside from fang) do very well the next decade. Millennials are a massive group and they are entering peak spending years in the next decade. They are a bigger group than baby boomers, and a lot of housing needs to be built for for them. We may not see a recession for a decade plus...

Edit: see meb Faber podcast episode 150
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Cycle wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:34 am
H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:38 am
Good observation. The inverse yield curve is one of the main factors that would tell me it's close to a recession.

Since this March, I have started putting aside $6k a month to Marcus. I still continue automatic contribution to max tax advantage accounts and some in brokerage accounts. But when a recession hit in a couple of year, I'll get a $100k+ head start to buy low. If there's no recession, I would still have a nice saving setting aside. The different of the gain over 2.25% rate from Marcus for 2 years would be minimal compared to the benefit I would get if there's an actual recession.
With this timing money, at what point do you get back in?

It's very possible US stocks (aside from fang) do very well the next decade. Millennials are a massive group and they are entering peak spending years in the next decade. They are a bigger group than baby boomers, and a lot of housing needs to be built for for them. We may not see a recession for a decade plus...

Edit: see meb Faber podcast episode 150
I'll check out the podcast.

When to get back in is the toughest part. 2 years is my arbitrary re-entry point for this new cash. I can't imagine doing this with my entire portfolio. It's only 10-15%. Essentially, when I save $100 a month, $50 goes to ETF/mutual funds and $50 goes to saving to wait for the recession. I consider it's the cost of self-insurance with a good upside.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jbranx »

{Topic is being derailed by comments about millennial's. I deleted several off-topic posts. Please stay on topic about markets in free fall} Moderator Jbranx
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:08 pm
Cycle wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:34 am
H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:38 am
Good observation. The inverse yield curve is one of the main factors that would tell me it's close to a recession.

Since this March, I have started putting aside $6k a month to Marcus. I still continue automatic contribution to max tax advantage accounts and some in brokerage accounts. But when a recession hit in a couple of year, I'll get a $100k+ head start to buy low. If there's no recession, I would still have a nice saving setting aside. The different of the gain over 2.25% rate from Marcus for 2 years would be minimal compared to the benefit I would get if there's an actual recession.
With this timing money, at what point do you get back in?

It's very possible US stocks (aside from fang) do very well the next decade. Millennials are a massive group and they are entering peak spending years in the next decade. They are a bigger group than baby boomers, and a lot of housing needs to be built for for them. We may not see a recession for a decade plus...

Edit: see meb Faber podcast episode 150
I'll check out the podcast.

When to get back in is the toughest part. 2 years is my arbitrary re-entry point for this new cash. I can't imagine doing this with my entire portfolio. It's only 10-15%. Essentially, when I save $100 a month, $50 goes to ETF/mutual funds and $50 goes to saving to wait for the recession. I consider it's the cost of self-insurance with a good upside.
If I were doing this I’d be using the recession money to buy EDV or TLT if nervous and give myself a chance to come out even further ahead if a recession rolls through.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

It was another good day for EM, up +.91%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:36 pm It was another good day for EM, up +.91%.
Has the US regressed to emerging market status already? :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NotTooDeepLearning »

H-Town wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:08 pm I'll check out the podcast.

When to get back in is the toughest part. 2 years is my arbitrary re-entry point for this new cash. I can't imagine doing this with my entire portfolio. It's only 10-15%. Essentially, when I save $100 a month, $50 goes to ETF/mutual funds and $50 goes to saving to wait for the recession. I consider it's the cost of self-insurance with a good upside.
So you are willing to deploy all this cash at potentially higher prices and nearer to an all time high?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

Comments conjecturing on the next Fed interest rate change have been removed. The discussion was getting derailed.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gufomel »

Shaping up to be a RBD...for the Bears. There’s that 180 degree flip on news even hinting that the Mexico tariffs may be blocked.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by protagonist »

220 pages of posts about stocks in free fall.
Is there anything left that has not been said? *laughing*
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:35 am Shaping up to be a RBD...for the Bears. There’s that 180 degree flip on news even hinting that the Mexico tariffs may be blocked.
This is the normal pattern, big moves cluster. Never be out of the market and you don't have to worry.....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

protagonist wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:07 am 220 pages of posts about stocks in free fall.
Is there anything left that has not been said? *laughing*
Somebody turned the anti-gravity machine on again, the stock market is now falling up once more :D .

The S&P 500 index is up 1.77% so far today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Dang! And I was this close to a rebalancing point.

What heartbreak!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gufomel »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:02 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey »

The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:32 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:22 pm
"The three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears".

LMAO
Bankerton has his moments, yes...
A three-piece suit?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

oldzey wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:17 pm
The Wizard wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:32 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:22 pm
"The three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears".

LMAO
Bankerton has his moments, yes...
A three-piece suit?
Well done!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Darth Xanadu »

ruralavalon wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:44 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:22 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 5:23 pm
H-Town wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 3:45 pm
Don't take his advice literally. You'll have to sell if you want to retire. What's the point of buying an asset if you never sell it? Leave it to your kids?
I am retired and have been for years. I have more than enough income with SS and an old school defined benefit plan. I brew my own coffee and play catch the falling knife and online poker. I'm playing with house money at this point in time.

I could lose 100% of my stock holdings and I would still be able to cover all bills. Every investor is different, the three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears, it's OK but it's not bespoke.
Random Poster wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 5:17 pm
H-Town wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 3:45 pm What's the point of buying an asset if you never sell it? Leave it to your kids?
To live off of the interest and dividends that the asset produces.
Aristocrat. 8-)

"The three fund portfolio is like a suit from Sears".

LMAO
So that is reasonable quality, low cost, and a good value :D .
Either that or a Sears-sucker suit.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:25 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:19 am Watch this be another small correction for the year. Stocks return to record highs and we regret not buying now. Then it happens all over again in a few months. Or, we're finally on the verge of the big one they've been predicting for the last decade...
Translation: stocks will go up or down.
Can I time the market or what? :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:25 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:19 am Watch this be another small correction for the year. Stocks return to record highs and we regret not buying now. Then it happens all over again in a few months. Or, we're finally on the verge of the big one they've been predicting for the last decade...
Translation: stocks will go up or down.
Can I time the market or what? :P
Rule #1 of economics: you can predict what or when but never both.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:01 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:25 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 10:19 am Watch this be another small correction for the year. Stocks return to record highs and we regret not buying now. Then it happens all over again in a few months. Or, we're finally on the verge of the big one they've been predicting for the last decade...
Translation: stocks will go up or down.
Can I time the market or what? :P
Rule #1 of economics: you can predict what or when but never both.
What seems expensive today could be on sale tomorrow and vice versa.
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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo.

One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels.

Furthermore, you have the ever favorite yield curve inversion topic. 2/3 month vs 10 yr treasury curve continues to steepen. Last week, treasury yields saw some of the largest declines in several years as more and more individuals are increasingly pricing in a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

Won't change my investment strategy one bit (autopilot), but individuals should be keen to the motion that we are in late cycle stages.

:beer
Payroll numbers out this morning; 27k vs 180k forecasted....Lowest ADP number in over 9 years :shock:
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:07 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:02 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
Not touching actual money makes is easer for me to ride out the dips. When I'm putting a handful of $20 bills into the self checkout at the grocery store it hurts more than when I "lose" 40 times that on paper.
blackholescion
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by blackholescion »

J G Bankerton wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:53 am
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:07 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:02 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
Not touching actual money makes is easer for me to ride out the dips. When I'm putting a handful of $20 bills into the self checkout at the grocery store it hurts more than when I "lose" 40 times that on paper.
If you use a credit card, it would hurt less :P
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10708
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

blackholescion wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:57 am
J G Bankerton wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:53 am
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:07 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:02 pm
J G Bankerton wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm This market's crazy "V"s is why I don't consider paper losses or gains real until they are realized.
As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
Not touching actual money makes is easer for me to ride out the dips. When I'm putting a handful of $20 bills into the self checkout at the grocery store it hurts more than when I "lose" 40 times that on paper.
If you use a credit card, it would hurt less :P
Yup and you'll get a 2-5% "dividend" via the reward points ;).
blackholescion
Posts: 166
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by blackholescion »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:00 pm
blackholescion wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:57 am
J G Bankerton wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:53 am
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:07 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:02 pm

As long as you equally consider gains as not real I can get behind the logic.

Nice pop there before the close today!
Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
Not touching actual money makes is easer for me to ride out the dips. When I'm putting a handful of $20 bills into the self checkout at the grocery store it hurts more than when I "lose" 40 times that on paper.
If you use a credit card, it would hurt less :P
Yup and you'll get a 2-5% "dividend" via the reward points ;).
6% with blue cash preferred. But you will have to pay the expense ratio of $95 a year, or roughly 26%. That's ok though, since you will get further dividends through the form of Amex offers where you can often save 10+% on everyday purchases from a variety of stores. For example, in the last 4 years, I've earned 10x my expense ratio in offers at places like Lowe's, Sam's Club, and Best Buy. I'm not shilling Amex or anything here. :sharebeer
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

blackholescion wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:00 pm
blackholescion wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:57 am
J G Bankerton wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:53 am
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:07 pm

Even further, most everything these days is just 0’s and 1’s that we have believe will be valued within some reasonable range of value by someone else at some point in the future. But I digress...
Not touching actual money makes is easer for me to ride out the dips. When I'm putting a handful of $20 bills into the self checkout at the grocery store it hurts more than when I "lose" 40 times that on paper.
If you use a credit card, it would hurt less :P
Yup and you'll get a 2-5% "dividend" via the reward points ;).
6% with blue cash preferred. But you will have to pay the expense ratio of $95 a year, or roughly 26%. That's ok though, since you will get further dividends through the form of Amex offers where you can often save 10+% on everyday purchases from a variety of stores. For example, in the last 4 years, I've earned 10x my expense ratio in offers at places like Lowe's, Sam's Club, and Best Buy. I'm not shilling Amex or anything here. :sharebeer
I actually have that card and it is the only one with an annual expense ratio that I renew (others just used the bonus). The extra 4% I get above other grocery cards pays for the expense ratio but not by much... I need to start using the Amex offers more to really maximize things!
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

I guess there is no more free fall... now we're talking about AMEX Blue Cash Preferred (an absolute steal if you ask me). Also Barclays Uber 4% on dining and 3% hotel, airfare with 0 annual fee is a good deal as well.

Now back to our regular programming...
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