U.S. stocks in free fall

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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:10 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:59 pm
Is this an ex-dividend day? I thought someone mentioned that. I don't pay a lot of attention to it.
It is.
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inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by inbox788 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:14 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:10 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:59 pm
Is this an ex-dividend day? I thought someone mentioned that. I don't pay a lot of attention to it.
It is.
Isn't everyday an ex-dividend day for SOME stock? What makes today special?
https://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php

Quadruple Witching sounds a lot more sinister, but I thought that was last week.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-m ... 2019-03-12

The last couple of days might have been slightly above average volatility, but it's not The Big Kahuna!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8E11QBWuzAk

frugalecon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugalecon » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:24 pm

Always happy when this occurs on a payday, so my TSP contribution goes in at a lower price.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm

I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:13 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:44 pm
Maybe it will turn out that MarketTimer was right. I hope so, because I could go for a drop that allows me to buy stocks on the cheap. DOW under 20,000 would be cool (as long as I didn't lose my job).
So be careful what you wish for :) :( .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:27 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:14 pm


Isn't everyday an ex-dividend day for SOME stock? What makes today special?
https://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php
Sure but that doesn't mean major index funds go ex-div every day... Today is special because some of the drop is just a dividend and thus not an actual loss in value (except for taxes in taxable).

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:46 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm
I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...
What is the yield curve inversion?
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inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by inbox788 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:47 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:27 pm
inbox788 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:14 pm


Isn't everyday an ex-dividend day for SOME stock? What makes today special?
https://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php
Sure but that doesn't mean major index funds go ex-div every day... Today is special because some of the drop is just a dividend and thus not an actual loss in value (except for taxes in taxable).
Which fund do you think makes ex-div more special today? AFAIK, there's no ex-div concentration that's going to move the market.

There were several funds that went ex-div recently and they didn't make as big waves. And aren't the ex-div effects mainly on the fund or individual stock itself and not on the actual index? https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q=INDEXSP:+.INX
Next 2019 SPY, VOO, IVV Ex-Dividend Dates and Estimated Dividends
March 14, 2019 by Vance Harwood
SPY went ex-dividend Friday, March 15th, 2019 with a dividend of $1.233 /share. SPY’s distribution payout will be on April 30th, 2019—yes the SPDR folks take their time delivering the dividend. I’m estimating Vanguard’s VOO, one of the other two big S&P 500 ETFs, will go ex-dividend on the 13th of March with a dividend of $1.17/ share. iShares’ IVV, will go ex-dividend on the 20th of March with a dividend of $1.18/ share. VOO
https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2010/01/ ... arch-2010/
lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:46 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm
I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...
What is the yield curve inversion?
Overall it's fairly flat. What points do you compare for significance? It's been slightly inverted at various points for a while now.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield
I see if you look at the 90 day vs 10 year, it did flip today. If traders consider that significant, then maybe the robotraders got involved today.

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:55 pm

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Last edited by letsgobobby on Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:58 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:55 pm
There is no consensus about what an inverted curve is but a lot of people look at the 2 year vs 10 year Treasury. By that definition, there has been no inversion.
It was the 3 months to 10 year

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-treasu ... 58633.html

DonIce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DonIce » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:03 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:58 pm
It was the 3 months to 10 year

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-treasu ... 58633.html
Other ones are inverted too. Perhaps a less biased way to look at it would be to look at how many points along the yield curve are inverted, rather than picking any particular pair of timeframes.

Image

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:08 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:46 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm
I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...
What is the yield curve inversion?
This may not be 100% technically correct...but basically when a shorter term treasury yield is higher than a longer term.

Typically you know, the rate of return (even for CD’s) is higher the longer the term. But here the market is giving a higher return for a shorter term treasury bond and a lower return for a longer term treasury bond.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:11 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:08 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:46 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm
I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...
What is the yield curve inversion?
This may not be 100% technically correct...but basically when a shorter term treasury yield is higher than a longer term.

Typically you know, the rate of return (even for CD’s) is higher the longer the term. But here the market is giving a higher return for a shorter term treasury bond and a lower return for a longer term treasury bond.
So why does it indicate a possible recession?
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Jim180
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jim180 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:12 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:55 pm
There is no consensus about what an inverted curve is but a lot of people look at the 2 year vs 10 year Treasury. By that definition, there has been no inversion.
There are also some that look at the Fed Funds Rate vs. 10 year Treasury. There has been no inversion there either.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:17 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:47 pm

Which fund do you think makes ex-div more special today? AFAIK, there's no ex-div concentration that's going to move the market.

There were several funds that went ex-div recently and they didn't make as big waves. And aren't the ex-div effects mainly on the fund or individual stock itself and not on the actual index? https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q=INDEXSP:+.INX
I am not saying it explained the significant sell-off we saw today, but it did contribute to the loss for several of the funds that are used often on here.

VTI looks like it may have gone ex-div. That wouldn't effect anything in the market, but it certainly would impact VTI (Total US Stock Market). If the market itself was perfectly flat, then VTI still would've taken a loss today equivalent to the amount of the dividend being paid out (well under 1% of NAV, so again, not the full extent of what we saw today).

Ready3Retire
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ready3Retire » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:19 pm

Today was one of those rare days where BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) went up over 0.5%. I for one am glad I hold nearly 50% of my investments in bonds. We'll see what next week brings....

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Kenkat
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kenkat » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:34 pm

Welcome back, U.S. stocks in free fall post. Haven’t seen you around as much lately, figured you’d be back at some point!

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:36 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:11 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:08 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:46 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:07 pm
I think the yield curve inversion finally happened today...
What is the yield curve inversion?
This may not be 100% technically correct...but basically when a shorter term treasury yield is higher than a longer term.

Typically you know, the rate of return (even for CD’s) is higher the longer the term. But here the market is giving a higher return for a shorter term treasury bond and a lower return for a longer term treasury bond.
So why does it indicate a possible recession?
I think it’s because in the past it has predicted recessions...not 100% accurate of course, just another potential predictor of recession within a certain time frame (may be 2 years...some even before the inversion, so recession was the precursor to the inversion, lol).

I am not saying I believe or act on it...just pointing out to the potential source of potential noise.

Does an inversion mean, the markets do not like the long term trajectory of the economy? I don’t know?

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:42 pm

Recession is part of business cycle. if you have a balanced folio, you will have a good opportunity to buy things cheap. Stay in course.

DB2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DB2 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:43 pm

Ready3Retire wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:19 pm
Today was one of those rare days where BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) went up over 0.5%. I for one am glad I hold nearly 50% of my investments in bonds. We'll see what next week brings....
I saw that. Very interesting. I am curious to see how the other Vanguard bond ETFs performed today.
Last edited by DB2 on Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DB2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DB2 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:45 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:36 pm


Does an inversion mean, the markets do not like the long term trajectory of the economy? I don’t know?
Yes, that is my understanding. They are seeing things ahead of the "official" data.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:49 pm

DB2 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:43 pm
Ready3Retire wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:19 pm
Today was one of those rare days where BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) went up over 0.5%. I for one am glad I hold nearly 50% of my investments in bonds. We'll see what next week brings....
I saw that. Very interesting. I am curious to see how the other Vanguard bond ETFs performed today.
EDV up 2.2%.

Which is exactly why EDV is my only bond holding.

drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:03 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:49 pm
DB2 wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:43 pm
Ready3Retire wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:19 pm
Today was one of those rare days where BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) went up over 0.5%. I for one am glad I hold nearly 50% of my investments in bonds. We'll see what next week brings....
I saw that. Very interesting. I am curious to see how the other Vanguard bond ETFs performed today.
EDV up 2.2%.

Which is exactly why EDV is my only bond holding.
SPTL was only up 1.5%, but my HSA will take it.

Greg in Idaho
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Greg in Idaho » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:17 pm

Kenkat wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:34 pm
Welcome back, U.S. stocks in free fall post. Haven’t seen you around as much lately, figured you’d be back at some point!
Yep...just here to check...all is normal

pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:43 pm

Greg in Idaho wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:17 pm
Kenkat wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:34 pm
Welcome back, U.S. stocks in free fall post. Haven’t seen you around as much lately, figured you’d be back at some point!
Yep...just here to check...all is normal
Ah! I was looking for it, thinking "oh, today is a US Stocks in Free Fall thread day" :sharebeer

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:14 pm

Ready3Retire wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:19 pm
Today was one of those rare days where BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) went up over 0.5%. I for one am glad I hold nearly 50% of my investments in bonds. We'll see what next week brings....
My only bond holding was up over 4.5% today :twisted: .

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:22 pm

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Last edited by letsgobobby on Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

tj
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tj » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:45 pm

frugalecon wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:24 pm
Always happy when this occurs on a payday, so my TSP contribution goes in at a lower price.
Your contributions go in on Friday? I thought mine do on Monday.

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by limeyx » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm

DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:54 pm

wheeeeeeeee!!!

This thread is booking more bets than a casino during March Madness.

TaxingAccount
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TaxingAccount » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:50 pm

.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by inbox788 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:00 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:17 pm
I am not saying it explained the significant sell-off we saw today, but it did contribute to the loss for several of the funds that are used often on here.

VTI looks like it may have gone ex-div. That wouldn't effect anything in the market, but it certainly would impact VTI (Total US Stock Market). If the market itself was perfectly flat, then VTI still would've taken a loss today equivalent to the amount of the dividend being paid out (well under 1% of NAV, so again, not the full extent of what we saw today).
It does look like VTI went ex-div. Small caps fell more today and likely accounts for much of the difference between VTI and VOO.
81%*1.9+4%*2.05+15%*3.08=2.083%
vs. 2.09%, the difference of 0.07% of $143.56 is about $0.01, not close the dividend [$0.5661/143.56 = 0.394329897%].

Seems like someone got a free dividend while someone else is paying it out and losing on the purchase today.

VTI 143.56 USD −3.06 (2.09%)
VOO 256.46 USD −4.97 (1.90%) [SP500]
VB 150.04 USD −4.77 (3.08%) [small caps]
VO 158.52 USD −3.32 (2.05%) [mid caps]
81% Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX)
4% Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund (VIMSX)
15% Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund (NAESX)
Updated 27 Dec 2018

24 24 27
6 7 6
3 2 2
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approxi ... ock_market

VTI Dividend History
Payout Amount Declared Date Ex-Dividend Date
$0.5661 2018-03-20 2018-03-22

ishkadetto
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ishkadetto » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:29 am

tj wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:45 pm
frugalecon wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:24 pm
Always happy when this occurs on a payday, so my TSP contribution goes in at a lower price.
Your contributions go in on Friday? I thought mine do on Monday.
My TSP contribution goes in on Thursday.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:49 am

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
What does the person who bought what you sold know that you don't know? :confused

UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:29 am

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
Why?

malabargold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by malabargold » Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:34 am

Yawn
Every recession has been followed by yet another all time stock high

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:46 am

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
Good luck
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:51 am

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
What in the world were you thinking :shock:
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:10 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:49 am
limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
What does the person who bought what you sold know that you don't know? :confused
Most likely a market maker who knows nothing.

harmoniousmonk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by harmoniousmonk » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:22 am

Monday's S and P futures down 51 or 1.8%

Grogs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:26 am

inbox788 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:00 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:17 pm
I am not saying it explained the significant sell-off we saw today, but it did contribute to the loss for several of the funds that are used often on here.

VTI looks like it may have gone ex-div. That wouldn't effect anything in the market, but it certainly would impact VTI (Total US Stock Market). If the market itself was perfectly flat, then VTI still would've taken a loss today equivalent to the amount of the dividend being paid out (well under 1% of NAV, so again, not the full extent of what we saw today).
It does look like VTI went ex-div. Small caps fell more today and likely accounts for much of the difference between VTI and VOO.
81%*1.9+4%*2.05+15%*3.08=2.083%
vs. 2.09%, the difference of 0.07% of $143.56 is about $0.01, not close the dividend [$0.5661/143.56 = 0.394329897%].

Seems like someone got a free dividend while someone else is paying it out and losing on the purchase today.
You know, I've been at this for a few years, but I still can't figure out when the NAV will drop and/or dividends show up in my account until it actually happens. I'm pretty sure the price of VTI hasn't been affected by the dividend yet. IIRC, they will adjust it at the opening on Monday. My guess is that $0.01 difference is either rounding error, or else the ETF was selling slightly off of NAV at the close (i.e., nobody got a free dividend). I've seen VTI close $0.02-3 off of what would be expected based on VTSAX a few times in the past, so it definitely happens.
inbox788 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:00 am
VTI 143.56 USD −3.06 (2.09%)
VOO 256.46 USD −4.97 (1.90%) [SP500]
VB 150.04 USD −4.77 (3.08%) [small caps]
VO 158.52 USD −3.32 (2.05%) [mid caps]
81% Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX)
4% Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund (VIMSX)
15% Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund (NAESX)
Updated 27 Dec 2018

24 24 27
6 7 6
3 2 2
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approxi ... ock_market

VTI Dividend History
Payout Amount Declared Date Ex-Dividend Date
$0.5661 2018-03-20 2018-03-22
So this actually makes an interesting case study for those who claim dividends are are some magic free lunch. VTSAX had a declaration date of 3/21, and a repurchase date of 3/22 (yesterday). So at the close yesterday, VTI was down 2.09% and VTSAX was down 2.59%. The dividend for VTSAX was $0.3736/share. Add that back the the final NAV of $69.49 and divide by the close Thursday ($71.34) and you get 97.93%, or 2.07% down. That's very close, although not quite perfectly, to VTI's drop.

As for me personally, I made a big purchase of VTSAX yesterday. I had been holding off for a week because I wanted to avoid buying the dividend. I was gritting my teeth about it, especially Thursday when the market shot up. I feel pretty good now, but we'll see what Monday brings. My 401k goes in Tuesday, so I would guess there will be a huge gain in the markets that day.

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by limeyx » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:05 am

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:10 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:49 am
limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
What does the person who bought what you sold know that you don't know? :confused
Most likely a market maker who knows nothing.
Sorry, forgot the "Didn't actually do it" Emoticon !!!!! :dollar :dollar :dollar

montanagirl
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by montanagirl » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:06 am

I was uncool and looked - down maybe .5% with a 60/40 allocation. :)

Sheesh.

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J G Bankerton
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Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:49 am

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:10 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:49 am
limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
What does the person who bought what you sold know that you don't know? :confused
Most likely a market maker who knows nothing.
When it comes to trading securities nobody knows anything, except insiders. The Goldman Sachs do just fine in any market at any time. I just hang on for the ride as I can't do anything about how the house runs the game.
Grogs wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:26 am
So this actually makes an interesting case study for those who claim dividends are are some magic free lunch.
Not a free lunch but a reduced price lunch. Dividends, on US stocks, are taxed as long term gains no matter how long one held the stock.

letsgobobby
Posts: 12080
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:10 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:55 am

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Last edited by letsgobobby on Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

Grogs
Posts: 512
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:23 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:49 am
Grogs wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:26 am
So this actually makes an interesting case study for those who claim dividends are are some magic free lunch.
Not a free lunch but a reduced price lunch. Dividends, on US stocks, are taxed as long term gains no matter how long one held the stock.
No. The point is that you get the same amount. You either get $100 of stocks before the dividend, or you get $99.50 of stocks and $0.50 in dividends after. You don't get $100 in stocks and $0.50 in dividends, which is what the "free lunch" crowd claims.

As for the 'reduced price lunch', I can potentially pay 0% on capital gains by holding the stock for 366+ days, so paying 15% now doesn't seem like that great of a deal. And VTSAX has been 94% qualified dividends for the last several years, so a small fraction ends up being regular income, too.

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2pedals
Posts: 929
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:31 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 2pedals » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:23 am

malabargold wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:34 am
Yawn
Every recession has been followed by yet another all time stock high
😴 I am sleeping well at night.

Proper your asset allocation should let you sleep well at night and wake up every morning refreshed.

revhappy
Posts: 63
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:09 am
Location: Singapore

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by revhappy » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:10 pm

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
I sold everything around middle of Feb when SPY was 275. So I am still down on that trade. So atleast you beat one person, i.e. me.

revhappy
Posts: 63
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:09 am
Location: Singapore

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by revhappy » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:15 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:36 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:26 pm
Here we go again. 19.8% or 20%, "bear" or "bull", whatever. Is anyone here making an investing decision based on how long it's been since the most recent "bear market"? I hope not.
I certainly hope not as well. Part of the problem I perceive is that many believe that if a bull market goes on long enough, the likelihood of a bear market occurring increases, which is historically false.
Lets put it differently, the more the markets become overvalued, the higher that chances that they crash. Think of it like stretching a rubberband. You cannot stretch it forever, it will break at somepoint and the chances of it breaking are higher when you stretched it more than when you stretched it less.

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abuss368
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Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:19 pm

Since the volatility from December 2018 and on we have stayed the course and tuned out the noise.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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