U.S. stocks in free fall

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:54 am

Here are the 15 biggest up days on the S&P 500 since 1945 along with the drawdown they were in heading into that advance:

Image

It’s pretty obvious the big up days tend to take place when markets are falling.

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Flymore
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flymore » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:11 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
No. :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:27 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
Yesterday's "moonshot" took us all the way back to ... Friday at 1:45 pm. So, no.

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:32 am

Sometimes they do ring a bell.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:34 am

veggivet wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
What a dilemma when the bid/ask is in between those!
My bid is $119.07. If that is accepted it could be very bad.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gas_balloon » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:54 am

walletless wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:23 pm
Accrual wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:07 am
Due to my young age this is my first experience with a relatively steep sell off. One of the interesting things I have noticed is how much of a decrease it takes to trigger my 5% re-balancing bands. For instance, my 70/30 portfolio has yet to cross over to 65/35 (currently at 64/36).
I use 5/20 instead of 5/25 - this has worked out well for me since I tend to hit balancing bands relatively when the 5/25 bands are hit. The reason being, I am constantly putting in new money in the market, and use the new $$ to buy whatever my spreadsheet tells me is lower than my target %. Due to this, I tend to not hit 5/25 pretty much ever!
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Hector
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hector » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:24 pm

I made a mistake yesterday. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund was showing unrealized loss. So I put in sell order. As we know market rose a lot yesterday and it ended up being long term capital gain. It was pass the cut off time and I could not cancel the order when I realized that the trade was going to result in the gain instead of loss. But for some strange reason, I did not place an order to buy something from the proceed. Instead, I bought it this morning when market was down around 1.5%. So I accidentally did better than index by ~1.5% - tax on capital gain for some portion of my portfolio.

I have made many mistakes and it has cost most of the times. This time was different and I got lucky. I hope to make less mistakes going forward.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:03 pm

The higher the cat bounces, the harder it falls.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:09 pm

Never try to catch a falling cat.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:11 pm

Very good advice, D&G!
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thx1138 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:14 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:09 pm
Never try to catch a falling cat.
Indeed, anyone unfortunate enough to have tried knows it does far more damage than a falling knife. Knew someone who ended up in the ER and then plastic surgery - no kidding!
Last edited by thx1138 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

3-20Characters
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 3-20Characters » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:14 pm

Cats have 9 lives, I’ve been told. So the cat may survive. Person trying to catch it...not sure.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:33 pm

Hector wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:24 pm
But for some strange reason, I did not place an order to buy something from the proceed.
I have made many mistakes and it has cost most of the times. This time was different and I got lucky. I hope to make less mistakes going forward.
I sold total stock VTI and immediately bought S&P 500 VOO to do some tax avoidance. My VOO is up 3.56% in an hour., What is going on?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:17 pm

Hector wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:24 pm
I made a mistake yesterday. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund was showing unrealized loss. So I put in sell order. As we know market rose a lot yesterday and it ended up being long term capital gain. It was pass the cut off time and I could not cancel the order when I realized that the trade was going to result in the gain instead of loss. But for some strange reason, I did not place an order to buy something from the proceed. Instead, I bought it this morning when market was down around 1.5%. So I accidentally did better than index by ~1.5% - tax on capital gain for some portion of my portfolio.

I have made many mistakes and it has cost most of the times. This time was different and I got lucky. I hope to make less mistakes going forward.
This is why I use ETF's. I don't get nasty surprises at the end of the day.

If you bought a MF today, you lost out at the end of the day again.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm

Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).

Nothing terribly surprising nor overly disturbing, quite frankly, it's just a regular bump in the life of a long-term investor. The only surprise is the fact that each and every asset class (7 of them) I invest in is down this year. I don't invest in gold, but it's down too. Admittedly, the IT bonds fund (VBILX) I use is only down by a smidge, but I do find that a little baffling. :shock:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:21 pm

siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).
Not quite there yet, siamond! There's still Monday.

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:27 pm

drk wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:21 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).
Not quite there yet, siamond! There's still Monday.
Oh... For whatever reason, I thought this Friday was the 29th... Silly me, there is indeed one more trading day, one more glimmer of hope or doom. Are you saying that my AA might end up in the green, then? COOL! :mrgreen:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:47 am

siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).

Nothing terribly surprising nor overly disturbing, quite frankly, it's just a regular bump in the life of a long-term investor. The only surprise is the fact that each and every asset class (7 of them) I invest in is down this year. I don't invest in gold, but it's down too. Admittedly, the IT bonds fund (VBILX) I use is only down by a smidge, but I do find that a little baffling. :shock:
Siamond, I checked my accounts today and it appears I am down 11% or so from the January 2018 highs and probably about 7% for the year. US Stocks were down, International Stocks down, US Bonds down, International Bonds down. Nowhere to hide that I am aware of, oh I forgot, FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit, but even their market value fluctuates. Well, actually, cash was up this year.

I joked about the zero fund portfolio and it seems that my joke was pretty close to the truth. Even the concept of diversification didn't seem to work this year, we can take solace in that some asset classes fell less than others. Oh yes, the factors didn't work too well this year. Growth did better than Value this year from what I can tell. So there will be a lot of crying in my root beer over the New Year holiday this year.
A fool and his money are good for business.

revhappy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by revhappy » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:00 am

My AA is down 5% for the year with a 50:50 allocation.

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Leif
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Leif » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:59 am

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:22 pm
To paraphrase William Faulkner: The worst is never over. In fact, it isn't even the worst.
D&G,

I agree. To quote myself, "Murphy was a wild-eyed optimist".

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by passiveTiger » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:20 pm

Bacchus01 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:50 pm
passiveTiger wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:38 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:42 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:28 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:24 am


I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you wrote. But I think japan’s debt is a result of those macroeconomic variables.

As for the US, we have an enormous trade advantage. As the largest consumer in the world, this gives us an advantage.
I’m not certain that buying other countries’ stuff is a trade advantage. We don’t dictate prices despite being a larger purchaser. We’re just subjected to them. We have also shown that our citizens will eagerly go into debt to buy other countries’ stuff that they can’t afford.

Other countries buying our stuff would be an advantage. though, and we sell quite a lot - just not as much as we buy. If they want to go into debt to buy even more of our stuff? All the better.
So, you don’t think telling China “meh, we aren’t going to buy as much of your stuff” isn’t having an impact on their economy? It is a huge negotiating tool. You don’t think the consumer has power in the negotiation when alternatives are available?
Your comment borders on political discussion, so I won’t address it directly, but being a net buyer of things is not an advantage. Being a net seller of things is. It’s sort of how capitalism works.
It's not political, it's factual.

I will just tell all my customers to take my price period. Take it or leave it. CUSTOMERS have most of the leverage. That's sort of how capitalism works.
You apparently sell a commodity service or product for which price competition is applicable - as is the case for most things. In foreign trade on a macro scale, it’s not.

We don’t have any leverage, because we will buy regardless of price. People that make less than $4,000 per month will continue to buy $1,000+ iPhones on 48 month plans. When the price of gasoline goes down, people buy gas guzzling vehicles. The U.S. market for compact is not large enough for anyone to make them here.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

You seem to think that buying things generates wealth, but SELLING things generates wealth.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:46 pm

passiveTiger wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:20 pm
...
You seem to think that buying things generates wealth, but SELLING things generates wealth.
How'bout both.
Value is created when a buyer AND a seller trade at a point where BOTH feel they've received something more from their transaction than if they never traded at all.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:14 pm

Conjecture on economic policy is derailing the discussion. Also, this is a "no politics" forum.

Please stay on-topic (stock market) and state your concerns in a civil factual manner.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:15 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:46 pm
passiveTiger wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:20 pm
...
You seem to think that buying things generates wealth, but SELLING things generates wealth.
How'bout both.
Value is created when a buyer AND a seller trade at a point where BOTH feel they've received something more from their transaction than if they never traded at all.
+1

That's rule #1 of exchange: two parties exchanging something, and both party values what the other party has more than what they own themselves.

Someone may want to buy your $100 of stock of stock because they believe it will provide them with a good long-term return, and you're selling your $100 of stock because you need to spend $100. No one needs to be smarter or think they've outwitted the other person for this to be a good exchange.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sreynard » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:04 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:15 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:46 pm
passiveTiger wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:20 pm
...
You seem to think that buying things generates wealth, but SELLING things generates wealth.
How'bout both.
Value is created when a buyer AND a seller trade at a point where BOTH feel they've received something more from their transaction than if they never traded at all.
+1

That's rule #1 of exchange: two parties exchanging something, and both party values what the other party has more than what they own themselves.

Someone may want to buy your $100 of stock of stock because they believe it will provide them with a good long-term return, and you're selling your $100 of stock because you need to spend $100. No one needs to be smarter or think they've outwitted the other person for this to be a good exchange.
+2

It is periodically entertaining observing debates where one or both sides seem to have little or no understanding of the basic concepts of economics or capitalism. Our education system truly is broken.

Journalists, politicians, and pundits are not economists or educators. If your understanding of how capitalism or foreign trade works is based on what you hear on TV, you can just assume you are misinformed. A good example is concern over "balance of trade". Trade deficits have have been hyperventilated about in the media and by politicians for as long as I can remember. Usually with the good and bad perfectly reversed.... :oops:

Warren Buffet said years ago that he makes all his profits buying companies, not selling them. I think he got that from Benjamin Graham.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:06 pm

siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:27 pm
drk wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:21 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).
Not quite there yet, siamond! There's still Monday.
Oh... For whatever reason, I thought this Friday was the 29th... Silly me, there is indeed one more trading day, one more glimmer of hope or doom. Are you saying that my AA might end up in the green, then? COOL! :mrgreen:
It looks like your optimism may win out against my hopes for doom and gloom* as futures are up nicely tonight.

* Wednesday stole some losses I wanted to harvest.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:24 pm

Is tomorrow a short trading day like last Monday?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by michaeljmroger » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:25 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:24 pm
Is tomorrow a short trading day like last Monday?
Nope. Markets are closed on Tuesday though.

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:19 am

drk wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:06 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:27 pm
drk wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:21 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).
Not quite there yet, siamond! There's still Monday.
Oh... For whatever reason, I thought this Friday was the 29th... Silly me, there is indeed one more trading day, one more glimmer of hope or doom. Are you saying that my AA might end up in the green, then? COOL! :mrgreen:
It looks like your optimism may win out against my hopes for doom and gloom* as futures are up nicely tonight.

* Wednesday stole some losses I wanted to harvest.
My AA is up more than 0.5% after one hour of trading. There is HOPE!!! 8-) :mrgreen:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:28 am

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:19 am
drk wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:06 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:27 pm
drk wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:21 pm
siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far).
Not quite there yet, siamond! There's still Monday.
Oh... For whatever reason, I thought this Friday was the 29th... Silly me, there is indeed one more trading day, one more glimmer of hope or doom. Are you saying that my AA might end up in the green, then? COOL! :mrgreen:
It looks like your optimism may win out against my hopes for doom and gloom* as futures are up nicely tonight.

* Wednesday stole some losses I wanted to harvest.
My AA is up more than 0.5% after one hour of trading. There is HOPE!!! 8-) :mrgreen:
Little confused by the terminology being used here.
When you say "AA is up 0.5%", do you mean your overall portfolio value is up that much, or the allocation percentage of your equities is up that much (eg., increased from 60% to 60.5% equities). Seems like it would be the former, but the use of AA seems odd in that case.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:44 am

My AA is back to 50/50, I didn’t do any massive rebalancing, just a little bit of nibbling here and there. Had I done massive buy, I would have to sell to get back to my 50/50 AA.

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:42 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:28 am
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:19 am
My AA is up more than 0.5% after one hour of trading. There is HOPE!!! 8-) :mrgreen:
Little confused by the terminology being used here.
When you say "AA is up 0.5%", do you mean your overall portfolio value is up that much, or the allocation percentage of your equities is up that much (eg., increased from 60% to 60.5% equities). Seems like it would be the former, but the use of AA seems odd in that case.
Sorry, it was a bad shorthand. I mean neither of those, actually. I meant that an initial investment of $X on Jan 1st, 2018 based on my target AA (not rebalanced until the end of the year) would have returned ~ 0.5% more by the time of my post than on Friday night. I have a Google Sheet doing this kind of math in semi real-time. And just to be clear, my AA is fixed for life (or at least, this is the plan of record).

This is slightly different from my portfolio value because of cash ins and outs during the year (I'll do the exact XIRR math early January when everything 2018 is set and done).

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:47 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:42 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:28 am
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:19 am
My AA is up more than 0.5% after one hour of trading. There is HOPE!!! 8-) :mrgreen:
Little confused by the terminology being used here.
When you say "AA is up 0.5%", do you mean your overall portfolio value is up that much, or the allocation percentage of your equities is up that much (eg., increased from 60% to 60.5% equities). Seems like it would be the former, but the use of AA seems odd in that case.
Sorry, it was a bad shorthand. I mean neither of those, actually. I meant that an initial investment of $X on Jan 1st, 2018 based on my target AA (not rebalanced until the end of the year) would have returned ~ 0.5% more by the time of my post than on Friday night. I have a Google Sheet doing this kind of math in semi real-time. And just to be clear, my AA is fixed for life (or at least, this is the plan of record).

This is slightly different from my portfolio value because of cash ins and outs during the year (I'll do the exact XIRR math early January when everything 2018 is set and done).
Makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Benjamin Buffett » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:00 pm

Bulls Cannot run Forever Without a Rest, Its Time for the Bears

The economy has a tendency to go through cycles, and as we have already exhausted, to a reasonable degree, lowering interest rates, and dumping inflationary cash into the economy, now we must pay the piper as we slowly see interest rates rising from the fed again..... It means its time to buy stocks on sale as the correction hits the market. It is highly unlikely the trading will halt and the markets will go up and down as they always have.

The way to make true wealth it is said, is to buy "when blood is running in the streets" generally, and this might sound like market timing, my plan is to increase my contributions during a bear market........the worse the bear market becomes the more I increase my contributions(within a limit of course). I keep my contributions to their asset classes within their proportions. It means that I have a little less spending money, but I enjoy buying stocks at value prices. If gold and sliver became dirt cheap(as it did in 1970s ish when it fell significantly) during the next bull market, I would probably pick up some knowing that RTM happens eventually. When the markets are thriving I just contribute 20% of my income, more when I see a bear market on the horizon.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm

Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen. 2018 was a disappointing year, most everything was down and not anywhere to hide but cash. I will probably cry in my root beer a bit but it wasn't a disaster. Down years are part of investing.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Wakefield1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Wakefield1 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:02 pm

"Sticks and stones will break my bones but words will never hurt me" (actually not true)
but as long as the earnings (and dividends) continue to flow I don't think the panic sellers can hurt me much permanently as long as I don't have to raise cash for spending

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer

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siamond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:25 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?
Awesome finish to an awesome year. Everything I own is up today, everything I bought today (ETFs) finished up and of course everything bought on 12/24 is flying so far. While my portfolio did not increase in value as much in 2018 as it did in 2017 (record year), this year's result still leave me with a smile heading into 2019. Happy One More Year!!!
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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siamond
Posts: 5438
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:43 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
I spent the past week backtesting the heck out of the most significant data we have (Christmas' Eve). I don't believe in any historical data before 2018 though, too many things have changed since then, nobody knew anything before 2018 started, so I only used 24-Dec-18. EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF IT. T-STATS, MONTE-CARLO, WEATHER FORECAST, THE WHOLE 9 YARDS. Hm, it wasn't pretty. :(

I didn't want to disclose my updated strategy before the end of the year, but I am now 50% in Gold, 25% in Silver. Not miners, mind you. The shiny things themselves. What about the missing 25%? This is my emergency fund, and I selected LT STRIPs (Vanguard EDV). I will not come back to regular stocks until CAPE goes under 10. Nor to regular bonds until interest rates go over 10%. I will only consider International once Martian stocks will be included (Elon Musk just tweeted that we'll get there in a couple of years). This 3 legged approach is a sure winning strategy and I am sharing it with you and only you, because I *know* you can understand.
Happy new shiny year!!! :sharebeer

2015
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Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:32 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 2015 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:51 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
Seconded. Perhaps the hardest, though certainly the most intensely productive year of my life (and I've always been productive). I will remember 2018 and am most glad it's over. With the mountainous number of tasks that I had to accomplish this year, I am thankful that I have positioned myself to remain oblivious to market activity. I don't know how much I'm up, down, or sideways this year, and don't care where the markets will be next year, in five years, even ten years. I have much, much more important things to do than to be chained to my portfolio.

Lynette
Posts: 2003
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lynette » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:52 pm

.....
Last edited by Lynette on Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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willthrill81
Posts: 19124
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Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:58 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:43 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
I spent the past week backtesting the heck out of the most significant data we have (Christmas' Eve). I don't believe in any historical data before 2018 though, too many things have changed since then, nobody knew anything before 2018 started, so I only used 24-Dec-18. EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF IT. T-STATS, MONTE-CARLO, WEATHER FORECAST, THE WHOLE 9 YARDS. Hm, it wasn't pretty. :(

I didn't want to disclose my updated strategy before the end of the year, but I am now 50% in Gold, 25% in Silver. Not miners, mind you. The shiny things themselves. What about the missing 25%? This is my emergency fund, and I selected LT STRIPs (Vanguard EDV). I will not come back to regular stocks until CAPE goes under 10. Nor to regular bonds until interest rates go over 10%. I will only consider International once Martian stocks will be included (Elon Musk just tweeted that we'll get there in a couple of years). This 3 legged approach is a sure winning strategy and I am sharing it with you and only you, because I *know* you can understand.
Happy new shiny year!!! :sharebeer
What could possibly go wrong with such a strategy? :mrgreen:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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willthrill81
Posts: 19124
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:59 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:25 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?
Awesome finish to an awesome year. Everything I own is up today, everything I bought today (ETFs) finished up and of course everything bought on 12/24 is flying so far. While my portfolio did not increase in value as much in 2018 as it did in 2017 (record year), this year's result still leave me with a smile heading into 2019. Happy One More Year!!!
I'm quite glad that I've been able to continue DCAing into the market at lower prices for the last three months. Lower prices are good news for accumulators.

My father, who will be retiring in three months, is less enthused than me. Let's just say that he's stock heavy.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

peppers
Posts: 1414
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peppers » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:06 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:43 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
I spent the past week backtesting the heck out of the most significant data we have (Christmas' Eve). I don't believe in any historical data before 2018 though, too many things have changed since then, nobody knew anything before 2018 started, so I only used 24-Dec-18. EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF IT. T-STATS, MONTE-CARLO, WEATHER FORECAST, THE WHOLE 9 YARDS. Hm, it wasn't pretty. :(

I didn't want to disclose my updated strategy before the end of the year, but I am now 50% in Gold, 25% in Silver. Not miners, mind you. The shiny things themselves. What about the missing 25%? This is my emergency fund, and I selected LT STRIPs (Vanguard EDV). I will not come back to regular stocks until CAPE goes under 10. Nor to regular bonds until interest rates go over 10%. I will only consider International once Martian stocks will be included (Elon Musk just tweeted that we'll get there in a couple of years). This 3 legged approach is a sure winning strategy and I am sharing it with you and only you, because I *know* you can understand.
Happy new shiny year!!! :sharebeer
I was right there with you until you mentioned Martian stocks. As an Earthling investor you do not need ex-Earth stocks. :wink:

Happy Holidays
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

User avatar
siamond
Posts: 5438
Joined: Mon May 28, 2012 5:50 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by siamond » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:12 pm

peppers wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:06 pm
I was right there with you until you mentioned Martian stocks. As an Earthling investor you do not need ex-Earth stocks. :wink:
Here you are, home planet bias AGAIN. SIGH. Elon, when will they finally grok it...

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willthrill81
Posts: 19124
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:18 pm

peppers wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:06 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:43 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:11 pm
So Siamond, should I keep my portfolio or should I sell everything and run for the hills? Don't know how guns, ammo, food and water supplies show up on an efficient frontier. :wink: Looks like 2018 ended on a good note though overall it was a tough year for me personally and in the markets. I will not miss 2018.
I spent the past week backtesting the heck out of the most significant data we have (Christmas' Eve). I don't believe in any historical data before 2018 though, too many things have changed since then, nobody knew anything before 2018 started, so I only used 24-Dec-18. EVERY SINGLE MINUTE OF IT. T-STATS, MONTE-CARLO, WEATHER FORECAST, THE WHOLE 9 YARDS. Hm, it wasn't pretty. :(

I didn't want to disclose my updated strategy before the end of the year, but I am now 50% in Gold, 25% in Silver. Not miners, mind you. The shiny things themselves. What about the missing 25%? This is my emergency fund, and I selected LT STRIPs (Vanguard EDV). I will not come back to regular stocks until CAPE goes under 10. Nor to regular bonds until interest rates go over 10%. I will only consider International once Martian stocks will be included (Elon Musk just tweeted that we'll get there in a couple of years). This 3 legged approach is a sure winning strategy and I am sharing it with you and only you, because I *know* you can understand.
Happy new shiny year!!! :sharebeer
I was right there with you until you mentioned Martian stocks. As an Earthling investor you do not need ex-Earth stocks. :wink:

Happy Holidays
You're forgetting that holding Martian stocks would be an excellent hedge against global inflation, disease, thermonuclear war, etc. unless Martian stocks somehow depend on Earth's survival. Or if Mars' stock market was a replica of Japan's for the last 30 years. :twisted:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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TheTimeLord
Posts: 7719
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:20 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:59 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:25 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:03 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:58 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:21 pm
Looks like the markets will have a good day on the last trading day of the year, but with a bit less than three hours to go, about anything could happen.
2 minutes to go, there is still hope!!! :beer
Markets closed. All hopes are lost. This is the end of the world year. :?
Awesome finish to an awesome year. Everything I own is up today, everything I bought today (ETFs) finished up and of course everything bought on 12/24 is flying so far. While my portfolio did not increase in value as much in 2018 as it did in 2017 (record year), this year's result still leave me with a smile heading into 2019. Happy One More Year!!!
I'm quite glad that I've been able to continue DCAing into the market at lower prices for the last three months. Lower prices are good news for accumulators.

My father, who will be retiring in three months, is less enthused than me. Let's just say that he's stock heavy.
Everyone has a different approach. To prepare for my retirement I started seriously selling in February driving my equity allocation down to an extremely conservative number. The December swoon triggered buying in my portfolio model (based on dollars not percentages and a couple other factors) so at least to this point I have benefited from the way events have played out to this point.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

staycalm
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:11 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:21 pm

No bubbles in the Martian markets. It's hard to fill a balloon with no atmosphere :sharebeer

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