U.S. stocks in free fall

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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:55 pm

Looks like Messr. Bankerton's bots flipped a heads today and promptly got stuck on the buy key......

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:57 pm

My behavioral observation is thus:

About 40 million people sat around on Christmas day and instead of talking politics (keep peace in family and all...) they commiserated about the stock market. It appears the wisdom of the crowds is that last week was a bit over-done.....

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:59 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:57 pm
It appears the wisdom of the crowds is that last week was a bit over-done.....
I find 12/24's and today's movements hard to reconcile with the 'wisdom of the crowd' argument. Movements that big on the basis of not much news seem very illogical to me. I blame the whole lot on Bogle's animal spirits.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Crushtheturtle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:00 pm

"Worst Bear Market Ever!"

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Money comes in, money goes out- you can't explain that

investingdad
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by investingdad » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:04 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:00 pm
"Worst Bear Market Ever!"

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The market will rise tomorrow if you can answer these questions three. Question the first...

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:10 pm

Should’ve harvested Monday’s losses.

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:22 pm

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Dottie57
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Dottie57 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:24 pm

Wheee! A Really Good Day today!

amitb00
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by amitb00 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm

This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:22 pm
Short covering? Doesn’t mean it’s not the beginning of the end (but perhaps it’s just the end of the beginning).
willthrill81 wrote: I blame the whole lot on animal spirits
Seems highly unlikely if 85% of trading is not driven by human analysis.
So do the algorithms try to trade against what they think a human will do, or what another algorithm will do, or what an algo thinks another algo will think an algo will do?
Last edited by JoMoney on Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm

amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:29 pm

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nicolas » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:30 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.
Can we stop saying dead cat? I like cats, a lot.

ebrasmus21
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ebrasmus21 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:32 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:30 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.
Can we stop saying dead cat? I like cats, a lot.
What's meant by "dead cat bounce"? One more bounce up before ---> down down down down?

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:34 pm

ebrasmus21 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:32 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:30 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.
Can we stop saying dead cat? I like cats, a lot.
What's meant by "dead cat bounce"? One more bounce up before ---> down down down down?
Yes. Not sure the origin but essentially even a dead market can have a final bounce before hitting the floor.

passiveTiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by passiveTiger » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:38 pm

Bacchus01 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:42 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:28 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:24 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:07 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:50 pm

Japan is some bigger macro issues. No population growth. No immigration. No natural resources. No natural trade advantage.
Every country has its issues. You left out that their debt situation is now even worse than ours, although we do our best to make it worse each day.

But we do have similarities. For example, replace absent population with absent qualified workers.

We have immigration, but it’s not sufficient to provide what we need, despite trying to be selectively targeted about it.

We are truly blessed with natural resources.

I don’t know about the “trade advantage” thing. If we have one, it doesn’t make itself known.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... B25E1938B1
I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you wrote. But I think japan’s debt is a result of those macroeconomic variables.

As for the US, we have an enormous trade advantage. As the largest consumer in the world, this gives us an advantage.
I’m not certain that buying other countries’ stuff is a trade advantage. We don’t dictate prices despite being a larger purchaser. We’re just subjected to them. We have also shown that our citizens will eagerly go into debt to buy other countries’ stuff that they can’t afford.

Other countries buying our stuff would be an advantage. though, and we sell quite a lot - just not as much as we buy. If they want to go into debt to buy even more of our stuff? All the better.
So, you don’t think telling China “meh, we aren’t going to buy as much of your stuff” isn’t having an impact on their economy? It is a huge negotiating tool. You don’t think the consumer has power in the negotiation when alternatives are available?
Your comment borders on political discussion, so I won’t address it directly, but being a net buyer of things is not an advantage. Being a net seller of things is. It’s sort of how capitalism works.

ebrasmus21
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ebrasmus21 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:42 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:34 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:32 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:30 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.
Can we stop saying dead cat? I like cats, a lot.
What's meant by "dead cat bounce"? One more bounce up before ---> down down down down?
Yes. Not sure the origin but essentially even a dead market can have a final bounce before hitting the floor.
I see. Thank you.


This activity bothers me and it doesn't bother me.

1. I have another 30 years of accumulating (at least) that needs be done before retirement. So, I'm okay with the market going down because of my time horizon.

2. While the stock market going down in and of itself doesn't bother me at this point I am bothered by the fact that at some point in my working career I will be faced with a recession. How will my wife and I fare? Will we both be able to keep our jobs? Will we be able to save during the next recession?

It's not the market going down its what impact the market has on the economy that scares me. In 2008 I was a college student without two nickles to rub together. Today I'm in the real world facing real world situations.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:53 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)
Probably my career-best call on the market :mrgreen:

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Watty
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Watty » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:03 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:34 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:32 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:30 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:27 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:26 pm
This movement is typical Whipsaw movement. One can make big money here or get butchered if they act here. Bogleheads are not impacted by Whipsaw I guess.
Dead cat bounce? Time will tell.
Can we stop saying dead cat? I like cats, a lot.
What's meant by "dead cat bounce"? One more bounce up before ---> down down down down?
Yes. Not sure the origin but essentially even a dead market can have a final bounce before hitting the floor.
Way to much information on that here.

https://english.stackexchange.com/quest ... cat-bounce

Surprisingly it seems to be a fairly recent phrase that comes from around the mid 1980s.

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:07 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)
Doom and gloom won't predict. I'll change my random guess to -5% based on this new info :(
Umm yeah.... so this is the perfect example of why I don't time the market. lol. :P
I am here solely to learn about investing.

JustinR
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JustinR » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm

People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:22 pm

JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
To paraphrase William Faulkner: The worst is never over. In fact, it isn't even the worst.

amitb00
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by amitb00 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:25 pm

Bear has gone to hibernate for now. We have few percent before Bear is back. I will enjoy Beer until then. Since we can’t avoid it, let us enjoy this scary ride.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:30 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:55 pm
Looks like Messr. Bankerton's bots flipped a heads today and promptly got stuck on the buy key......
I just set a limit order to buy at a drop of about .8%
It will take a 6% drop from here to trigger another buy until February; that's when I will have paid back my cash fund.

tmcc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tmcc » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:36 pm

JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
What if this is the deeper bottom and the old 2600 floor was initial bottom? In the end no one knows until much later but its certainly promising.

I agree though, need to see more follow through buying into next year. It could easily fade

quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:41 pm

JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
I'd like to say I don't know and I don't care. I care. I just don't know.

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bacchus01 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:50 pm

passiveTiger wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:38 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:42 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:28 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:24 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:07 pm


Every country has its issues. You left out that their debt situation is now even worse than ours, although we do our best to make it worse each day.

But we do have similarities. For example, replace absent population with absent qualified workers.

We have immigration, but it’s not sufficient to provide what we need, despite trying to be selectively targeted about it.

We are truly blessed with natural resources.

I don’t know about the “trade advantage” thing. If we have one, it doesn’t make itself known.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... B25E1938B1
I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you wrote. But I think japan’s debt is a result of those macroeconomic variables.

As for the US, we have an enormous trade advantage. As the largest consumer in the world, this gives us an advantage.
I’m not certain that buying other countries’ stuff is a trade advantage. We don’t dictate prices despite being a larger purchaser. We’re just subjected to them. We have also shown that our citizens will eagerly go into debt to buy other countries’ stuff that they can’t afford.

Other countries buying our stuff would be an advantage. though, and we sell quite a lot - just not as much as we buy. If they want to go into debt to buy even more of our stuff? All the better.
So, you don’t think telling China “meh, we aren’t going to buy as much of your stuff” isn’t having an impact on their economy? It is a huge negotiating tool. You don’t think the consumer has power in the negotiation when alternatives are available?
Your comment borders on political discussion, so I won’t address it directly, but being a net buyer of things is not an advantage. Being a net seller of things is. It’s sort of how capitalism works.
It's not political, it's factual.

I will just tell all my customers to take my price period. Take it or leave it. CUSTOMERS have most of the leverage. That's sort of how capitalism works.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:50 pm

JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
Hoping it at least bounces around the lows so I can wrap up my loss harvesting. As to what I think will happen, I have no idea but today’s big bounce with no apparent catalyst makes things much more interesting day to day.

BanditKing
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BanditKing » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Hmmm, market is way up. Must be 401k contribution day.

(checks)

Yup....

(seriously, I should just time the market based on when my 401k contributes)....

UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:19 pm

I have prediction. Tomorrow the market will.....

.... surprise us.

lazydavid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazydavid » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:48 pm

BanditKing wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:05 pm
Hmmm, market is way up. Must be 401k contribution day.

(checks)

Yup....

(seriously, I should just time the market based on when my 401k contributes)....
I got a double-whammy (in a bad way) with both of my final scheduled deposits for the year. Payday was Friday, so 401k bought at market close, right before Monday's over-reaction. Then regularly-scheduled ACH to my taxable executed Monday, settled today for a buy in the late afternoon. :(

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:17 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:22 pm
JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
To paraphrase William Faulkner: The worst is never over. In fact, it isn't even the worst.
Of course. The worst is the day you die, right? So it can always get worse. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:40 pm

I presume some large entities were rebalancing back in to stocks today.

rick2427
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rick2427 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:39 am

Today may have been a short covering rally...only time will tell if we are out of the woods.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:56 am

Futures appear to be down a gozillion points. Hang on!
Don't do something, just stand there!

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bacchus01 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:58 am

rick2427 wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:39 am
Today may have been a short covering rally...only time will tell if we are out of the woods.
Yeah, lots of year end moves could be happening for tax planning and such.

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:38 am

Volume was well below average yesterday. I’d feel better about buyers outnumbering sellers if volume were high. Makes me wonder if the AlgoBots will decide today is a good day to sell?

I for one welcome our new Algo Overlords.
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:08 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:59 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:57 pm
It appears the wisdom of the crowds is that last week was a bit over-done.....
I find 12/24's and today's movements hard to reconcile with the 'wisdom of the crowd' argument. Movements that big on the basis of not much news seem very illogical to me. I blame the whole lot on Bogle's animal spirits.
Consumer spending news may have something to do with it - may be not monumental, but markets are hyper sensitive on both directions...If this is the reason, it will be fleeting as well.

yousha
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by yousha » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:18 am

Yesterday might have been a dead cat bounce!

fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:35 am

Futures down about 1.5%. Will be interesting to see if additional tax loss harvesting and other selling continues or if the dip is bought and the recent lows hold.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:38 am

I’ve got to say, in such a volatile market it’s hard not to market time to some extent...like it would have been very difficult to buy yesterday late afternoon. Although it’s where it was a week ago.

staycalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:26 am

I’d feel better about buyers outnumbering sellers if volume were high.


Buyers and Sellers may never be equal, but Buys always equal Sells

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am

Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:50 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
Always a buyer, never a seller. Accumulate , don’t speculate.

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nicolas » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:59 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:17 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:22 pm
JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
To paraphrase William Faulkner: The worst is never over. In fact, it isn't even the worst.
Of course. The worst is the day you die, right? So it can always get worse. :wink:
I’d like to counter that. The day you die may be your best day.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:00 am

Housing starts were supposed to be released today but weren't because of the partial government shutdown.

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:14 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:50 am
CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
Always a buyer, never a seller. Accumulate , don’t speculate.
Giant Dead Cat bounce. Mr. Market's Boxing Day gift but you had to unwrap it.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:29 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:14 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:50 am
CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
Always a buyer, never a seller. Accumulate , don’t speculate.
Giant Dead Cat bounce. Mr. Market's Boxing Day gift but you had to unwrap it.
As long as VTI stays above $119.08 we have bottomed. At $119.07 the bottom is virtually limitless.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:33 am

Nicolas wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:59 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:17 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:22 pm
JustinR wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
People in that other thread acting like the worst is over.

Anyone else think that isn't the case?
To paraphrase William Faulkner: The worst is never over. In fact, it isn't even the worst.
Of course. The worst is the day you die, right? So it can always get worse. :wink:
I’d like to counter that. The day you die may be your best day.
Very true. :beer
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

veggivet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am

[/quote]As long as VTI stays above $119.08 we have bottomed. At $119.07 the bottom is virtually limitless.
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What a dilemma when the bid/ask is in between those!
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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