U.S. stocks in free fall

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:22 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
What line?

Of course there are “lines” when various alogorithims executes certain actions. That much is obvious. But the whole point is no one knows or can predict those “lines”

tmcc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tmcc » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:26 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:22 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
What line?

Of course there are “lines” when various alogorithims executes certain actions. That much is obvious. But the whole point is no one knows or can predict those “lines”
line is a metaphor for price. no one really knows what price that will be. there are obvious technical levels like 2100 (trump election pop) and 1850 (something happened here but I am old and don't remember).

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:11 pm

tmcc wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:26 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:22 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
What line?

Of course there are “lines” when various alogorithims executes certain actions. That much is obvious. But the whole point is no one knows or can predict those “lines”
line is a metaphor for price. no one really knows what price that will be. there are obvious technical levels like 2100 (trump election pop) and 1850 (something happened here but I am old and don't remember).
I think we all know alogorthms takes certain action at certain price point (lines), why is that a warning?...that’s my point.

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aj76er
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by aj76er » Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:16 pm

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:23 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:13 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am
Wahoo! I just TLH’d again! Thanks for the vast universe of TLH partners, Vanguard!
I am about to add the European and Pacific Index Funds to my set of partners, starting to have to go deep.....
With commission free ETFs, I can go VTI - ITOT - SPTM - SCHB - VOO - SPY - virtually forevermore.
I'm pretty sure VOO and SPY would be considered substantially identical by the IRS (due to tracking the same index).
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:19 pm

aj76er wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:16 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:23 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:13 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am
Wahoo! I just TLH’d again! Thanks for the vast universe of TLH partners, Vanguard!
I am about to add the European and Pacific Index Funds to my set of partners, starting to have to go deep.....
With commission free ETFs, I can go VTI - ITOT - SPTM - SCHB - VOO - SPY - virtually forevermore.
I'm pretty sure VOO and SPY would be considered substantially identical by the IRS (due to tracking the same index).
Use VONE and VTHR instead.

Pinotage
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Pinotage » Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:32 pm

Pinotage wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:12 pm
Pinotage wrote:Agree with the numerous other posters that this is just a bump. A blip. A relative nothing.

I say that based on:

1- Our specific frame of reference for market turbulence (invested through far bigger dips before)
2 - Our investing horizon (many decades to go)
3 - Our asset allocation (relatively conservative for age)
4 - The rest of our financial picture

I think it is important to remember all of these factors, and probably more, work in concert to stoke or soothe one's emotions.

Particularly number 4.

A dip, however small or large, looks worse when you are unemployed. It looks worse if you are carrying a too-large mortgage. It looks worse if you have health issues. It looks worse if you have other demands on your time and resources, demands that aren't deferrable or scalable based on market performance.

It even looks worse if you stub your toe, have low blood sugar, or discover a leaky pipe in your basement. Or read a bunch of negative posts. Emotional triggers feed on one another and can skew an otherwise rational perspective pretty fast.

So if the recent dip really looks bad to you, take a moment to consider why. Is it because your AA is too aggressive? Or is it because other areas of your financial life need more attention than your investments? Or have your emotions temporarily gotten the best of you?

Full disclosure: I'm writing this post with hopes to balance some of the negative over-reaction, but also as a reminder to myself how I felt at this specific moment in time. I hope to refer back to this post in days, weeks, or years when I'm feeling emotional about the market.

Best wishes to all!

11.12.15
I just referred back to myself when feeling emotional about the market, and I'm glad to say "stay the course"

1.14.16
Just checking in with past me, and hopefully providing a touchpoint for future me.

Best wishes to the forum this holiday season.

drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:11 pm

aj76er wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:16 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:23 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:13 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am
Wahoo! I just TLH’d again! Thanks for the vast universe of TLH partners, Vanguard!
I am about to add the European and Pacific Index Funds to my set of partners, starting to have to go deep.....
With commission free ETFs, I can go VTI - ITOT - SPTM - SCHB - VOO - SPY - virtually forevermore.
I'm pretty sure VOO and SPY would be considered substantially identical by the IRS (due to tracking the same index).
We have no evidence that they would be, and they're also completely different investment structures (unit investment trust versus open-ended fund).

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:09 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:22 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
What line?

Of course there are “lines” when various alogorithims executes certain actions. That much is obvious. But the whole point is no one knows or can predict those “lines”
Insiders make and brake lines with impunity; you have been warned.

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia » Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:13 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
While I agree, robots aren’t setting the futures market, which closed at south of -3% last night.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:29 pm

columbia wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:13 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
While I agree, robots aren’t setting the futures market, which closed at south of -3% last night.
Why not? Bots never sleep. Insider, high speed, bots trade against retail traders. They make bank 24/5.

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:54 pm

aj76er wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:16 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:23 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:13 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am
Wahoo! I just TLH’d again! Thanks for the vast universe of TLH partners, Vanguard!
I am about to add the European and Pacific Index Funds to my set of partners, starting to have to go deep.....
With commission free ETFs, I can go VTI - ITOT - SPTM - SCHB - VOO - SPY - virtually forevermore.
I'm pretty sure VOO and SPY would be considered substantially identical by the IRS (due to tracking the same index).
I feel I’d have a leg on which to stand in tax court. Different CUSIP, different company managing the fund, different fee structure, Vanguard reinvests cash in a way that State Street and Black Rock don’t, different ex-dividend dates. There are different levels of liquidity between them. There will also constantly be differences between NAV and share price fluctuating between VOO, SPY, and IVV. They may be the same breed, but they each came from a different litter.

Having said that, I take your point. I have so far been able to ride this TLH wave without resorting to S&P500 ETFs, full stop.

I unintentionally committed a margin / settlement violation last month when I TLH’d shares that hadn’t yet settled, that themselves had been purchased from the unsettled proceeds of an earlier TLH sale. I’ve found settlement restrictions to be more of an obstacle to TLH than availability of TLH partners.
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:00 pm

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:54 pm
aj76er wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:16 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:23 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:13 pm
motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am
Wahoo! I just TLH’d again! Thanks for the vast universe of TLH partners, Vanguard!
I am about to add the European and Pacific Index Funds to my set of partners, starting to have to go deep.....
With commission free ETFs, I can go VTI - ITOT - SPTM - SCHB - VOO - SPY - virtually forevermore.
I'm pretty sure VOO and SPY would be considered substantially identical by the IRS (due to tracking the same index).
I feel I’d have a leg on which to stand in tax court. Different CUSIP, different company managing the fund, different fee structure, Vanguard reinvests cash in a way that State Street and Black Rock don’t, different ex-dividend dates. There are different levels of liquidity between them. There will also constantly be differences between NAV and share price fluctuating between VOO, SPY, and IVV. They may be the same breed, but they each came from a different litter.

Having said that, I take your point. I have so far been able to ride this TLH wave without resorting to S&P500 ETFs, full stop.

I unintentionally committed a margin / settlement violation last month when I TLH’d shares that hadn’t yet settled, that themselves had been purchased from the unsettled proceeds of an earlier TLH sale. I’ve found settlement restrictions to be more of an obstacle to TLH than availability of TLH partners.
Does anyone know how often the IRS contests these sorts of exchanges? We hear people discuss this issue fairly often, but I don't recall ever hearing anyone discuss the IRS actually contesting them. According to Investopedia, the IRS has not even contested people exchanging one S&P 500 fund at one brokerage for another S&P 500 fund at a different brokerage since they "have different fund managers, different expense ratios, may replicate the underlying index using a different methodology, and may have different levels of liquidity in the market."
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

passiveTiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by passiveTiger » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:28 pm

Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:24 am
passiveTiger wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:07 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:50 pm
passiveTiger wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:28 pm
imareal1 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:17 pm

As a new investor who believes the market will recover but cannot dispute this point, I don't see why we need to be reminded of this. Like yeah, the market may never recover from this point on, but do you really think that is a realistic possibility worth mentioning?

And to say this one has been deeper and more prolonged, I think that's simply unnecessary fear mongering.
Japan is still waiting to return to December 1989 stock prices. Japan was so wrecked by overinflated real estate and other assets that it is now going extinct. Literally.

https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/67910354 ... id-decline

People talk long-term, staying the course, etc., but can you stomach the risk of being 33% down after almost 30 years?
Japan is some bigger macro issues. No population growth. No immigration. No natural resources. No natural trade advantage.
Every country has its issues. You left out that their debt situation is now even worse than ours, although we do our best to make it worse each day.

But we do have similarities. For example, replace absent population with absent qualified workers.

We have immigration, but it’s not sufficient to provide what we need, despite trying to be selectively targeted about it.

We are truly blessed with natural resources.

I don’t know about the “trade advantage” thing. If we have one, it doesn’t make itself known.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... B25E1938B1
I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you wrote. But I think japan’s debt is a result of those macroeconomic variables.

As for the US, we have an enormous trade advantage. As the largest consumer in the world, this gives us an advantage.
I’m not certain that buying other countries’ stuff is a trade advantage. We don’t dictate prices despite being a larger purchaser. We’re just subjected to them. We have also shown that our citizens will eagerly go into debt to buy other countries’ stuff that they can’t afford.

Other countries buying our stuff would be an advantage. though, and we sell quite a lot - just not as much as we buy. If they want to go into debt to buy even more of our stuff? All the better.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:34 pm

My wash sale experience. When I sold and bought in the same class Vanguard recorded the wash sale. If I sold one class of shares and bought a different class in the same fund Vanguard didn't record it as a wash sale.

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bgf » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:35 pm

over the past week ive noticed that im ambivalent to the recent drops. it was much more difficult for me emotionally a month or so ago when the reversal happened. its almost like a new baseline of "just another down day" has set in and the continuing losses dont bother me. i was far more emotional when things initially started falling. anyone else have a similar experience?
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:37 pm

rgs92 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:10 pm
For anyone curious, one of my old accounts that has a 60/40 (stock/fixed-income) AA auto-rebalanced every 3 months (including 10% international) has done this (with no deposits or withdrawals at all):
09/30/2016 $258,988.52
12/31/2016 $262,322.83
03/31/2017 $272,597.56
06/30/2017 $279,050.60
09/30/2017 $287,499.50
12/31/2017 $298,323.65
03/31/2018 $296,698.41
06/30/2018 $301,694.42
09/30/2018 $312,379.13
12/24/2018 $277,045.78
Is that good or bad?
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:29 pm
columbia wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:13 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
While I agree, robots aren’t setting the futures market, which closed at south of -3% last night.
Why not? Bots never sleep. Insider, high speed, bots trade against retail traders. They make bank 24/5.
Do robots break line with impunity?

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:47 pm

columbia wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:13 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 am
date to pick. I'm not sure how this chart is actionable. It's almost more like trivia.
The algorithms are set to pounce with a flurry of high speed trades as soon as the line is crossed.
You have been warned.
While I agree, robots aren’t setting the futures market, which closed at south of -3% last night.
Interesting comment. Who do you think is setting the futs market?
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:54 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
What type of insider information is used to drive the futures price down 2%?
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

tmcc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tmcc » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:55 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Trading [your own money] is a sucker game.
fixed

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:55 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
And yet you have been playing it all year. Are you an insider or a sucker?
Don't do something, just stand there!

staycalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:59 pm

Don't blame the robots, it's all those buy and hold index investors that are creating all this volatility :sharebeer

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free f

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:59 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
Then they are not “robots”. It’s just like us executing trades online vs trading physical stock certificates inside a brick building (edit:faulty analogy as you have to ignore time to execute)

If robots are controlled by insiders in real time, they are one and the same - the whole concept of mindless robots directing the markets (like willthrill81 likes to believe) breaks apart....

What in your opinion is different between “trading” and “investing”?
Last edited by gilgamesh on Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:24 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:06 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:54 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
What type of insider information is used to drive the futures price down 2%?
. There is an infinite amount of inside information that can be used. Probably some type of fake news pump & dump. I'm not an insider so I don't know exactly what information was uses at a particular time.
corn18 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:55 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
And yet you have been playing it all year. Are you an insider or a sucker?
Buy and hold VTI is a guarantied winner.
staycalm wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:59 pm
Don't blame the robots, it's all those buy and hold index investors that are creating all this volatility :sharebeer
I hear that from the bots all the time.

passiveTiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by passiveTiger » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:12 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:28 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:54 pm
uberme wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:50 pm
I could see this causing a recession... when people feel less wealthy they cut spending back. I wonder how many people are seeing their company stock shares nose diving (tech companies)
It would be unusual indeed for a stock market decline to cause a recession. It's usually the other way around.
One factor that might make that true in this case is the rising percentage of the US population that is in retirement. If the market declines, so does the value of their retirement nest egg, and it follows that they will feel less inclined to spend on discretionary items, which could cause an economic slowdown.

Or maybe not. I never claimed to be an economist. :?:
The median amount of family financial assets is $23,500. That’s checking, savings, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, everything except whole life insurance and homes.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publicat ... /scf17.pdf

Most people who hold stocks don’t hold a notable amount of stocks.

http://amp.timeinc.net/time/money/50540 ... nt-richest

So, most are not significantly affected in their financial accounts, because even if they have one, there isn’t much in it.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:12 pm

Am I missing any VG mutual fund partners; VTSAX, VLCAX, VFIAX? Didn’t know converting to an ETF had a fee. Can’t harvest more until mid-January and starting to rack up some big losses I’d love to take 1st thing in the New Year.

Thoughts on Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation Fund Admiral Shares (VTCLX)?

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:16 pm

Anecdotal evidence based on response to Yahoo!-finances articles imply almost all responders (even some here) think USA stocks will continue to crash into being absolutely worthless (almost). At least, they don’t think stocks they are holding is worth it’s present value - this is unequivocal. That only means they will sell more and more (if they are rational...I’m not assuming that)

Yet!, this bear market has shown me how much I've underestimated my risk tolerance. I am about 9 away from retirement and was at 70% in stocks. When stocks are declining all around me, I just want to buy more and more stocks.

Buying stocks on a sale (even if future ‘stock sales’ can be much better - this means stock can decline further) is consuming me...but I finally got to put my thoughts into numbers...It makes not much sense to go 100% stocks now, I should have been 100% in stocks all along...increasing my stock allocation means very little compared to being 100% all along. I made a mistake in holding too much bonds.
Last edited by gilgamesh on Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:23 pm

corn18 wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:55 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:49 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:43 pm
Do robots break line with impunity
Of course, they are run by insiders. Trading is a sucker game.
And yet you have been playing it all year. Are you an insider or a sucker?
If those are the only two choices, he has to be an insider?

Why?

Because “he’s good at this”

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:27 pm

passiveTiger wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:12 pm

Most people who hold stocks don’t hold a notable amount of stocks.
Define "stocks". Is VTI stocks? Many people hold stock mutual funds in retirement accounts.
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:23 pm


Because “he’s good at this”
I was good the other day but today my last buy is down 0.23%.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:31 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:27 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:23 pm

Because “he’s good at this”
I was good the other day but today my last buy is down 0.23%.
Your defintion of “good” and “bad” seems to be quite fleeting, no?

Probably Based on the whims of “robots aka insiders” eh?

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:36 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:31 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:27 pm


Because “he’s good at this”I was good the other day but today my last buy is down 0.23%.
Your defintion of “good” and “bad” seems to be quite fleeting, no?

Probably Based on the whims of “robots aka insiders” eh?
If my last buy is down that is bad, if my last buy is up that is good. If this was poker it would just be a bad run. I just have to play my game and not tilt. I get up close and personal with poker playing bots.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:15 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:36 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:31 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:27 pm


Because “he’s good at this”I was good the other day but today my last buy is down 0.23%.
Your defintion of “good” and “bad” seems to be quite fleeting, no?

Probably Based on the whims of “robots aka insiders” eh?
If my last buy is down that is bad, if my last buy is up that is good. If this was poker it would just be a bad run. I just have to play my game and not tilt. I get up close and personal with poker playing bots.
How much impact does "your last buy" have on your portfolio at retirement?

It, After all defines 'good' and 'bad' for you?

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DanMahowny » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:39 pm

What are the robots doing when the market goes up?
Funding secured

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:47 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:39 pm
What are the robots doing when the market goes up?
Consuming electricity? :wink:

Computer algorithms have been in used for actually making trades since the 1980s (at least), and they were probably largely responsible for the crash in October, 1987, which led to the introduction of the 'circuit breakers' that stop trading if the market falls too far too quickly. I'd have a hard time believing that they aren't responsible for some of the current movement, but it's probably impossible to quantify their impact, at least right now.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Flymore
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flymore » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:49 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:39 pm
What are the robots doing when the market goes up?
Bidding the market up. :D

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:53 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:15 pm

How much impact does "your last buy" have on your portfolio at retirement?

It, After all defines 'good' and 'bad' for you?
It has no impact on my retirement. After one has more than enough money it isn't amount the money it's about being right.

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm

Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
I am here solely to learn about investing.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:04 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:53 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:15 pm

How much impact does "your last buy" have on your portfolio at retirement?

It, After all defines 'good' and 'bad' for you?
It has no impact on my retirement. After one has more than enough money it isn't amount the money it's about being right.
What defines "being right"

I'm always "right" too...I define being "right" as when I execute an action and look at its effect later on, and every single time I do it, time has passed by...ergo! I'm "right" every single time.
Last edited by gilgamesh on Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)
Doom and gloom won't predict. I'll change my random guess to -5% based on this new info :(
I am here solely to learn about investing.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Wow that's something...-2.5% eh!....what about just a negative vs positive game....

Does anyone believe it will be a possitive day?

I'm not asking you to act on it....how many believe it will be negative...I do...

I'm curious

ANYONE HERE WHO THINKS IT'LL BE POSTIVE?
Last edited by gilgamesh on Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:09 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Wow that's something...-2.5% eh!....what about just a negative vs positive game....

Does anyone believe it will be a possible day?

I'm not asking you to act on it....how many believe it will be negative...I do...

I'm curious
All these -2% days have gotten to me psychologically so I'm a bit pessimistic right now.
I am here solely to learn about investing.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:13 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:09 pm
gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Wow that's something...-2.5% eh!....what about just a negative vs positive game....

Does anyone believe it will be a possible day?

I'm not asking you to act on it....how many believe it will be negative...I do...

I'm curious


All these -2% days have gotten to me psychologically so I'm a bit pessimistic right now.
I'm daring any and all Bogleheads to predict a positive S&P 500 or DOW positive day tomorrow...they win if either one ends on the positive...anybody?....just an irrelevant game to gauge the sentiments to a certain degree
Last edited by gilgamesh on Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Taj_Mahalo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Taj_Mahalo » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:13 pm

Same. I’m with Old Dollar. Probably another negative chunk off the ol indexes. -1.5-2.5% tomorrow :|
Income is not wealth. Wealth is not income. Both are equally as important and either is capable of producing the other.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:19 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)
Doom and gloom won't predict. I'll change my random guess to -5% based on this new info :(
This is almost impossible...I'll bet on it being less than -5%.

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:32 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:19 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:07 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:05 pm
Old_Dollar wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Any negative nancy predictions for tomorrow? How about -2.5% SP 500
Doom and gloom is my game, but even I don't try to predict daily fluctuations in the market 8-)
Doom and gloom won't predict. I'll change my random guess to -5% based on this new info :(
This is almost impossible...I'll bet on it being less than -5%.
I know, but I was being a negative nancy, I'm done now. Hopefully the volatility dies down.
I am here solely to learn about investing.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney » Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:42 pm

Based on the last quarters distribution of $0.73880 and last trade price of $73.80, Vanguard's High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) had a yield just over 4%
Happy New Year!
🎉 🎉 🎉
Using all four quarters of trailing dividends, a 50/50 mix of High Dividend(VYM) and High Dividend International (VYMI) also yielding 4%
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:17 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:06 pm

I hear that from the bots all the time.
What language to the bots speak?
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:22 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:17 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:06 pm

I hear that from the bots all the time.
What language to the bots speak?
Morse code of course.

bot bot BASH BASH BASH

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