U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
telecaster
Posts: 59
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by telecaster » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:31 pm

I TLH'ed today in my taxable account.

Also, my company 401k match used to be alongside every contribution I made. At some point they switched to a bulk contribution once at the end of the year. This year I'm finally happy with that approach.

TheHouse7
Posts: 513
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:40 am
Location: Washington State

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheHouse7 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:33 pm

telecaster wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:31 pm
I TLH'ed today in my taxable account.

Also, my company 401k match used to be alongside every contribution I made. At some point they switched to a bulk contribution once at the end of the year. This year I'm finally happy with that approach.
Unless you miss the dip of course. :wink:
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.

telecaster
Posts: 59
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by telecaster » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:35 pm

TheHouse7 wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:33 pm
telecaster wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:31 pm
I TLH'ed today in my taxable account.

Also, my company 401k match used to be alongside every contribution I made. At some point they switched to a bulk contribution once at the end of the year. This year I'm finally happy with that approach.
Unless you miss the dip of course. :wink:
Doh, you are right. OK ... no more vicarious market timing ;)

Houe
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Houe » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:41 pm

market accelerating downward into the closing bell...

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7568
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:52 pm

Houe wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:41 pm
market accelerating downward into the closing bell...
Sure seems to be accelerating upward!

TheHouse7
Posts: 513
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:40 am
Location: Washington State

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheHouse7 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:56 pm

telecaster wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:35 pm
TheHouse7 wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:33 pm
telecaster wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:31 pm
I TLH'ed today in my taxable account.

Also, my company 401k match used to be alongside every contribution I made. At some point they switched to a bulk contribution once at the end of the year. This year I'm finally happy with that approach.
Unless you miss the dip of course. :wink:
Doh, you are right. OK ... no more vicarious market timing ;)
I have yet to invest in my wife and I's Roth ira we are in the same market timing boat. :sharebeer
"PSX will always go up 20%, why invest in anything else?!" -Father-in-law early retired.

veggivet
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:07 pm
Location: New England

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:05 pm

Anybody notice oil down 8% today? Lost in the noise, I guess...
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

User avatar
Time2Quit
Posts: 244
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:47 am
Location: Fridgid State

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Time2Quit » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:10 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2018-12-18

Santa's Coming!!!!!! :greedy


The commentators change their tune by the minute....
"It is not the man who has too little, but the man who craves more, that is poor." --Seneca

FootballFan5548
Posts: 227
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 2:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FootballFan5548 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:10 pm

veggivet wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:05 pm
Anybody notice oil down 8% today? Lost in the noise, I guess...
I TLH'd one of my last individual sector ETF holdings AMLP... it's an LP ETF that was getting crushed and down 4% today... finally dumped it for a nice long term loss

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 58691
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:24 pm

New member MSE prof has a question which I've moved into a stand-alone thread. See: [Portfolio review request - cash portion, asset allocation]
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

SmallSaver
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by SmallSaver » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:02 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:39 am
CNBC allowed one of their respected in-house experts to share his thoughts on the requisite steps to reverse the current unpleasantness:
"This is genuine bear market behavior," Cramer argued. "It needs to stop going down before we can get a sustained rebound in the averages."
Now who can argue with that!
From MarketWatch:

“Quite simply, upside follow-through has been lacking, keeping negative momentum in the driver’s seat,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director and technical analyst at Instinet. “And if this doesn’t change, the same scenario will persist.”

herpfinance
Posts: 227
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:52 pm
Location: Denmark

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by herpfinance » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:20 pm

Stick to the plan and keep buying whatever is underweighted the most. That's what I'm doing :sharebeer
"The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists" - Benjamin Graham

User avatar
roymeo
Posts: 1273
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Oakland, CA
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by roymeo » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:28 pm

Market's gotta drop a lot more before any of my taxable's in TLH territory...
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

MisterMister
Posts: 267
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm

SmallSaver wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:02 pm

From MarketWatch:

“Quite simply, upside follow-through has been lacking, keeping negative momentum in the driver’s seat,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director and technical analyst at Instinet. “And if this doesn’t change, the same scenario will persist.”
What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15091
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:32 pm

MisterMister wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm
SmallSaver wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:02 pm

From MarketWatch:

“Quite simply, upside follow-through has been lacking, keeping negative momentum in the driver’s seat,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director and technical analyst at Instinet. “And if this doesn’t change, the same scenario will persist.”
What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.
Even though I'm a trend follower, I will readily admit that trends continue until they don't. But momentum appears to be a very real effect and works in both directions.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:13 am

MisterMister wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm

What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.
Federal Reserve meeting today; no matter what the FED does it is a fact the market will react.

MisterMister
Posts: 267
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:29 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:13 am
MisterMister wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm

What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.
Federal Reserve meeting today; no matter what the FED does it is a fact the market will react.
Right. And today looks to be a good day & I assume the market "believes" in a Fed increase + a very dovish tone.

So if the fed "disappoints", expect a very bleak day tomorrow, although in my mind the odds of that outcome are zero. Not sure if their decision will be public before close today. We may see an impact in the last hour.
Last edited by MisterMister on Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 248
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:43 am

MisterMister wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:29 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:13 am
MisterMister wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm

What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.
Federal Reserve meeting today; no matter what the FED does it is a fact the market will react.
Right. And today looks to be a good today & I assume the market "believes" in a Fed increase + a very dovish tone.

So if the fed "disappoints", expect a very bleak day tomorrow, although in my mind the odds of that outcome are zero. Not sure if their decision will be public before close today. We may see an impact in the last hour.
Lots of volatility going into next year. I would avoid making big bets with these "little" dips and increases - it's just noise that could be quickly flipped around any day, as we've been seeing.

Scooter57
Posts: 1162
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:20 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Scooter57 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am

The scenario that is worrying many investors is not one that looks like 2008, a sudden collapse in price, but what began happening during the summer of 2000 where you had a slow but steady decrease with drops and then recoveries and more drops and more recoveries, but with the drops mostly being a bit deeper than the recoveries.

The prices of the large cap indexes like the S&P 500 did not again maintain the highs of that time for almost 13 years. The slow drift down from 8/2000 resulted, by 9/2002 in a 45% loss of value of stocks purchased at the top. It wasn't until 2006 that the market rose over the high of 2000, and then shortly after there was the financial crisis bringing things right back down again. So that it wasn't until 2013 that that high was surpassed again and that high was sustained for a long period of time.

That kind of long period of languid doldrums is more of a concern now than is a black-swan-caused sudden collapse. And it should be a lot more frightening to people saving for or spending in retirement.

It's also important to note that Dividend yields were higher during the period that followed 2000 than they are now, so the investor in the broad market indexes still got some growth over that long, slow period of price stagnation. But right now the inflated price of many stocks and the choice to put money into buybacks rather than dividends has lowered the dividend yield of the large cap indexes significantly. They have been well below 2% for several years. With treasury yields considerably higher than that dividend yield, investors whose portfolio has made enormous gains over the past 10 years could well justify taking a lot of their money out of the market and stashing it in treasuries.

Obviously, this is not what the confirmed Boglehead would do, but it is what a lot of other investors would do and that will greatly influence stock prices going forward. The investors most likely to take their money out are those in retirement who have incomes low enough that the tax hit on the treasuring income is the same as it would be on dividends.

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:44 am

Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
but what began happening during the summer of 2000...
My transition to manhood. :beer
Word-up, the "smart-money" knows what the FED is going to do; they pay extra for that.

MisterMister
Posts: 267
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:41 pm

You make good points
Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
... The investors most likely to take their money out are those in retirement who have incomes low enough that the tax hit on the treasuring income is the same as it would be on dividends.
Does that make a difference? If you are drawing down from a tax advantaged brokerage account (IRAs) then withdrawals are always taxed as income, regardless of the source. Dividend vs. Interest vs cap gains discussions don't come into play.

And yes, you can cash out stock and convert to treasuries inside the brokerage account without having to withdraw the funds, not that I am suggesting that as a plan.
Last edited by MisterMister on Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
corn18
Posts: 1558
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 6:24 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:42 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:44 am
Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
but what began happening during the summer of 2000...
My transition to manhood. :beer
Word-up, the "smart-money" knows what the FED is going to do; they pay extra for that.
Do tell where this "smart money" lies.
Don't do something, just stand there!

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 12971
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:46 pm

corn18 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:42 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:44 am
Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
but what began happening during the summer of 2000...
My transition to manhood. :beer
Word-up, the "smart-money" knows what the FED is going to do; they pay extra for that.
Do tell where this "smart money" lies.
Not with me. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

User avatar
corn18
Posts: 1558
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 6:24 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:48 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:46 pm
corn18 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:42 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:44 am
Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
but what began happening during the summer of 2000...
My transition to manhood. :beer
Word-up, the "smart-money" knows what the FED is going to do; they pay extra for that.
Do tell where this "smart money" lies.
Not with me. :wink:
Drat! I was hoping to convert my dumb money to smart money. How much extra do I have to pay to get smart money?
Don't do something, just stand there!

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 12971
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:51 pm

corn18 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:48 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:46 pm
corn18 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:42 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:44 am
Scooter57 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:40 am
but what began happening during the summer of 2000...
My transition to manhood. :beer
Word-up, the "smart-money" knows what the FED is going to do; they pay extra for that.
Do tell where this "smart money" lies.
Not with me. :wink:
Drat! I was hoping to convert my dumb money to smart money. How much extra do I have to pay to get smart money?
5.75% to your favorite investment advisor for a load fund. :wink: Or a 1% Assets Under Management agreement.
A fool and his money are good for business.

User avatar
Leif
Posts: 2755
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Leif » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:09 pm

It's interesting to see the sharp drop on the Dow with the 1/4 rate increase. Bet was 66% for the increase. I'm surprised the probability got down that low. The predication of 2 more increases for 2019 is lower than previous predication.
Last edited by Leif on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:09 pm

corn18 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:42 pm
Do tell where this "smart money" lies.
Do you have to ask? The seeing eye, annuit coeptis, sees all, controls all and has most of the money.
I'm just along for the ride, I have no control over the train; I just try to keep their hand out of my pocket.

FED blew it. Crash time.

corpgator
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corpgator » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:21 pm

Leif wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:09 pm
It's interesting to see the sharp drop on the Dow with the 1/4 rate increase. Bet was 66% for the increase. I'm surprised the probability got down that low. The predication of 2 more increases for 2019 is lower than previous predication.
They were hoping for no more hikes next year and instead we get 2. They were hoping their temper tantrum and selloff would work as it had in previous years. Glad we have a fed with balls now. QT and rate hikes continue unabated.

User avatar
telemark
Posts: 2570
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:35 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by telemark » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:25 pm

MisterMister wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm
SmallSaver wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:02 pm

From MarketWatch:

Quite simply, upside follow-through has been lacking, keeping negative momentum in the drivers seat, said Frank Cappelleri, executive director and technical analyst at Instinet. And if this doesnt change, the same scenario will persist.
What a fantastic and insightful tip. Translation: if the market doesn't stop trending down, it will keep trending down.
Things would be so different, if they were not as they are...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYCXO_FZj5k

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:33 pm

Who is buying and selling to drive the market up and down over a percent in an hour? I'm so confused. Or are they the ones who are confused?

User avatar
andronikus
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andronikus » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:41 pm

corpgator wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:21 pm
They were hoping for no more hikes next year and instead we get 2. They were hoping their temper tantrum and selloff would work as it had in previous years. Glad we have a fed with balls now. QT and rate hikes continue unabated.
Rate hike "Not dovish enough". :oops:

Going to keep backing up the truck. I got a lot of taxable to invest.

aristotelian
Posts: 6671
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by aristotelian » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:45 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:33 pm
Who is buying and selling to drive the market up and down over a percent in an hour? I'm so confused. Or are they the ones who are confused?
There are a bunch of computers programmed to sell when Twitter says "Fed raises rates". Seriously.

tony_roach
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:05 pm
Location: Philadelphia

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tony_roach » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:49 pm

andronikus wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:41 pm
corpgator wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:21 pm
They were hoping for no more hikes next year and instead we get 2. They were hoping their temper tantrum and selloff would work as it had in previous years. Glad we have a fed with balls now. QT and rate hikes continue unabated.
Rate hike "Not dovish enough". :oops:

Going to keep backing up the truck. I got a lot of taxable to invest.
Same here...just picked up some more total market ETF in my taxable

phantom0308
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:52 pm
Location: Rochester Hills, MI

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by phantom0308 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:01 pm

I'm not sure what language is implying dovish or hawkish. Powell is answering almost all of the questions with the same type of nuanced data-dependent answer. The only thing of note seems to be answers that seem to assert the feds independence.

User avatar
Flymore
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 1:31 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flymore » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:04 pm

I still don't get why they're raising rates.
Powell's not saying there's inflation.

ge1
Posts: 497
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2012 8:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ge1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm

I'm not the trading expert, but the fact that the market is not able to snap back after the recent losses is a very bearish sign... and the magnitude of the losses today after the expected rate hike is even more worrying.

For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.

User avatar
Flymore
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 1:31 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flymore » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:08 pm

ge1 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm
I'm not the trading expert, but the fact that the market is not able to snap back after the recent losses is a very bearish sign... and the magnitude of the losses today after the expected rate hike is even more worrying.

For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.
+1 on that!

columbia
Posts: 2142
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:11 pm

ge1 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm
I'm not the trading expert, but the fact that the market is not able to snap back after the recent losses is a very bearish sign... and the magnitude of the losses today after the expected rate hike is even more worrying.

For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.
Staying the course (a good move) is one thing; pretending that all signs aren’t pointing towards a continued decline is...baffling.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7568
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:12 pm

Grrrr TLH'd yesterday into my 3rd MF pairing. Don't want to convert to ETF to nab some more so I guess I'll wait and see where we are in 2019! Would be better to harvest then anyways (2018 I had some long-term gains to offset rather than income).

corpgator
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corpgator » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:14 pm

Flymore wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:04 pm
I still don't get why they're raising rates.
Powell's not saying there's inflation.
To tamp down on bubbles before they explode. They are probably too late though.

Crisium
Posts: 201
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:52 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crisium » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm

How low can you go?

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7568
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm

corpgator wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:14 pm
Flymore wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:04 pm
I still don't get why they're raising rates.
Powell's not saying there's inflation.
To tamp down on bubbles before they explode. They are probably too late though.
Read an interesting piece the other day saying the argument that the Fed needs to build up higher rates so they have ammo to reduce them in the future is flawed logic.

ge1
Posts: 497
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2012 8:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ge1 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:19 pm

columbia wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:11 pm
ge1 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm
I'm not the trading expert, but the fact that the market is not able to snap back after the recent losses is a very bearish sign... and the magnitude of the losses today after the expected rate hike is even more worrying.

For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.
Staying the course (a good move) is one thing; pretending that all signs aren’t pointing towards a continued decline is...baffling.
Yes exactly. I'm not advocating that people react on this but for those of us who experienced the deep declines in 2000/1 and 2008/9, it's very difficult not to see the similarities. And once the decline escalate, market tend to drop very quickly. We are nowhere near "fire sale" territory.

bi0hazard
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bi0hazard » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:21 pm

Flymore wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:08 pm
ge1 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm
I'm not the trading expert, but the fact that the market is not able to snap back after the recent losses is a very bearish sign... and the magnitude of the losses today after the expected rate hike is even more worrying.

For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.
+1 on that!
Can y'all tell the rest of us when it's OK to invest again and market is at lowest? Please! Thank you.

limeyx
Posts: 280
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by limeyx » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:21 pm

tony_roach wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:49 pm
andronikus wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:41 pm
corpgator wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:21 pm
They were hoping for no more hikes next year and instead we get 2. They were hoping their temper tantrum and selloff would work as it had in previous years. Glad we have a fed with balls now. QT and rate hikes continue unabated.
Rate hike "Not dovish enough". :oops:

Going to keep backing up the truck. I got a lot of taxable to invest.
Same here...just picked up some more total market ETF in my taxable
Me too!

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7568
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:33 pm

S&P 600 looks to have hit a 2 year low (value portion at-least).

User avatar
ginmqi
Posts: 357
Joined: Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:34 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:33 pm
Who is buying and selling to drive the market up and down over a percent in an hour? I'm so confused. Or are they the ones who are confused?
Read the book "Flash Boys" - majority of trading are done by computers AFAIK. Millions(?) of shares are probably bought/sold every single hour/minute because of computerized trading or "HFT" (high frequency trading). Firms can make a fraction of a penny at a time and they do it a massive amount of times an hour to generate revenue over time.

This is why you hear about wall st hiring math/science geniuses or "quants" to write/implement algorithms for trading firms to get an edge on the competition. Each firm has their own algorithms that take into account probably thousands of factors when deciding when to buy/sell at what price when certain conditions are met/not-met....

Firms have also been known to try to build as close to the exchange center as possible to reduce data transmission time by nanoseconds to gain even the slightest of possible advantage.
Last edited by ginmqi on Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
munemaker
Posts: 4147
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 6:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by munemaker » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:34 pm

Fed took away the punch bowl.

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:35 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:12 pm
Grrrr TLH'd yesterday into my 3rd MF pairing. Don't want to convert to ETF to nab some more so I guess I'll wait and see where we are in 2019! Would be better to harvest then anyways (2018 I had some long-term gains to offset rather than income).
I just found out that if I sell losses I lose my long term gains from sales in January. Oh the agony of having money, more money more problems.

User avatar
ginmqi
Posts: 357
Joined: Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:37 pm

ge1 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:07 pm
For those of you who keep talking about "loading up the truck" you may want to take it easy for a while, seems likely to me that the market will go significantly lower from here.
For sure.

If we are truly entering a bear market then I'll be eagerly awaiting with my truck and back it up as the equity market discount/sale continues!

So the truck is simply waiting to be unloaded...but let's hope it goes even lower! :twisted:
(disclaimer I am not advocating for any loss of jobs or such, simply that I am an early career investor with long investment horizon, the current fall in market prices is a HUGE relief and a very happy sign for early investors like me with a long-term horizon)

Post Reply