U.S. stocks in free fall

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:35 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:31 pm
What if $85k is 1% of Uber doc's portfolio?
He would be a 1%er.

uberdoc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by uberdoc » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:43 pm

Added 40K to our house buying fund. Will do 12K backdoor Roth on Jan 3rd. Planning to purchase 20K I bond at the end of this month to keep AA well balanced.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:57 pm

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uberdoc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by uberdoc » Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:05 pm

We all bogleheads are .1% ER not 1% ER (expense ratio).

thx1138
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thx1138 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:17 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:38 pm
Scars are often the result of bravery and sacrifice, whereas tattoos are 'merely' a form of self-expression.
True, but even more often scars are the result of inattention or unnecessary risk taking...

uberme
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by uberme » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:19 am

Well at least my international stocks are giving me "diversification"

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Leif
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Leif » Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:37 pm

It looks like 2018 is shaping up to be my worst year since 2008. I had small (< 1%) losses in 2011 & 2015. Behind the 8 ball is getting additional meaning. Not that once a decade is much to complain about.

WentzWagon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WentzWagon » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:18 pm

Thank god I diversified with international.lol

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:30 pm

WentzWagon wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:18 pm
Thank god I diversified with international.lol
I hear you... :beer

For us, this apparent “freefall” is actually dampening our downswing.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:51 pm

uberme wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:19 am
Well at least my international stocks are giving me "diversification"
I was just looking at my foreign holdings. Shares I have held over a year and a half are now losses.

sksbog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sksbog » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:59 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:51 pm
uberme wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:19 am
Well at least my international stocks are giving me "diversification"
I was just looking at my foreign holdings. Shares I have held over a year and a half are now losses.
Different perspective. " They all are on sale "😀

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:08 pm

sksbog wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:59 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:51 pm
uberme wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:19 am
Well at least my international stocks are giving me "diversification"
I was just looking at my foreign holdings. Shares I have held over a year and a half are now losses.
Different perspective. " They all are on sale "😀
I'm only 10% foreign; I would be sad if I was 50%.

UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:13 pm

Six months ago many members of this forum were disgusted with their bond funds and were ready to sell. I'm guessing that there is a new appreciation for bond funds after the stock tumbles of the last two months.

Zigma
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Zigma » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:15 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:15 pm
Zigma wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:56 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:02 am
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:51 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:49 am
2018 is going to be my first negative year since I graduated from college (besides 2008 of course, but I had no money in 2008 :wink: ).
How do you know this? (Unless, of course, you just cashed out).
We still have a few weeks left in the year - it ain't over yet. :happy
Most large index Funds are only down by a few percentage points for the year (VTSAX, for instance, is down only 2.5% YTD: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/quote.html) - market can easily come back to beginning of year numbers (maybe not the year-highs).
Literally next sentence I said unless there is a big turnaround. My portfolio is off 6.4% as of Friday so I’d need a big turnaround...
I may have a stupid question, how are you estimating your real portfolio performance if you TLH in and out of your holdings? Won't your "Personal Performance" on Vanguard be incorrect because it factors in new holdings that you TLH into?
As long as you are TLH into similarly performing investments Personal Capital will keep track for you with minimal tracking error. So if for example you swap from VOO Vanguard SP500 ETF to VV Vanguard Large Cap ETF then you’ll have very little tracking error.

In my case, I sold off most of my taxable account at the end of 2017 in preparation for a home purchase. My taxable investments only represent 3% of my investment portfolio right now. Everything else is in qualified accounts. So I don’t really bother TLHing at the moment.

I am guilty of not using Personal capital enough. :|
Keep moving on higher ground.

Zigma
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Zigma » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:15 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:37 pm
Zigma wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:56 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:02 am
GoldStar wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:51 am
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:49 am
2018 is going to be my first negative year since I graduated from college (besides 2008 of course, but I had no money in 2008 :wink: ).
How do you know this? (Unless, of course, you just cashed out).
We still have a few weeks left in the year - it ain't over yet. :happy
Most large index Funds are only down by a few percentage points for the year (VTSAX, for instance, is down only 2.5% YTD: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/quote.html) - market can easily come back to beginning of year numbers (maybe not the year-highs).
Literally next sentence I said unless there is a big turnaround. My portfolio is off 6.4% as of Friday so I’d need a big turnaround...
I may have a stupid question, how are you estimating your real portfolio performance if you TLH in and out of your holdings? Won't your "Personal Performance" on Vanguard be incorrect because it factors in new holdings that you TLH into?
I don't think Vanguard is tracking buy/sells, they are simply tracking income (dividends) and price-appreciation (both realized and unrealized) and comparing that to your deposits/withdrawals. So if you buy $100 of S&P500 and TLH at $90 into Total Market which then grows to $110 you will have a 10% gain calculated the same way as if you had just held the S&P500 the whole time until it grew to $110 as well.
Thanks definitely makes more sense. Thanks.
Keep moving on higher ground.

bearcub
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bearcub » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:31 am

My asset allocation is 60% International 40% domestic. About 85 % of my bonds are in TIPS. So.... holding on. What do I know. LOL.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 am

Free_fall over for now.
U.S. Stock Futures
S&P +9.50 / +0.37%
:beer

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:46 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:51 pm
I was just looking at my foreign holdings. Shares I have held over a year and a half are now losses.
Interestingly, I bought into Fidelity's FTIPX Total International index fund back in January 2017 (about six months after they opened the fund). The NAV on that date was $10.32, and on the day they "closed" the fund and collapsed it into the institutional-premium version (FTIHX) the NAV was $11.30, a gain of about 9%. Right now, Fidelity shows the NAV of FTIHX at $10.64, which is still about 3% gain over my cost basis. Fidelity also is telling me that, overall with dividend/CG reinvestment, that holding is up 7%.

So it's not all bad news on the international front, I suppose, depending on one's timeframe.
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:15 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:46 am

So it's not all bad news on the international front, I suppose, depending on one's timeframe.
Foreign is always bad news compared to US, ask Mr. Bogle.

The free-fall is back on track. This time will be know as; "the Santa Clause panic of 2018"

2Birds1Stone
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:14 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 am
Free_fall over for now.
U.S. Stock Futures
S&P +9.50 / +0.37%
:beer
Ehhh...not quite

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:46 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:14 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 am
Free_fall over for now.
U.S. Stock Futures
S&P +9.50 / +0.37%
:beer
Ehhh...not quite
That was then, this is now, pleaser try to keep up. We have moved to the Santa Clause Panic of 2018. :shock:

Whakamole
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:47 am

Since it's getting close to the end of the year - and I have some possible TLH sales - what do Bogleheads think about talking the TLH now versus waiting until the last trading day in case we keep seeing a drop?

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:53 am

When is the Santa Rally supposed to start? :P

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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Toons » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:57 am

Reality Check
Dow 6,547.05, March 2009
Today 23,800
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

kaeltor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by kaeltor » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:06 am

How far down are we YTD ?

onourway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by onourway » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:11 am

kaeltor wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:06 am
How far down are we YTD ?
Not quite 6% for the Total Market YTD.

13% from the September highs.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:14 am

Small caps officially hit bear territory this morning (-20% from recent highs)
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:15 am

onourway wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:11 am
kaeltor wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:06 am
How far down are we YTD ?
Not quite 6% for the Total Market YTD.

13% from the September highs.
Its looking like the bears are going to get their day. Now what will they do with it once they have it?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:17 am

Whakamole wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:47 am
Since it's getting close to the end of the year - and I have some possible TLH sales - what do Bogleheads think about talking the TLH now versus waiting until the last trading day in case we keep seeing a drop?
Trying to wait to see if the market drops more is just pure market timing. If you need to TLH, go ahead and do it. I did mine last week and don't regret it.
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:29 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:17 am
Whakamole wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:47 am
Since it's getting close to the end of the year - and I have some possible TLH sales - what do Bogleheads think about talking the TLH now versus waiting until the last trading day in case we keep seeing a drop?
Trying to wait to see if the market drops more is just pure market timing. If you need to TLH, go ahead and do it. I did mine last week and don't regret it.
It's not about marking timing. For instance, I could sell VTSAX for VLCAX, but then my understanding is I'd have to pay a higher tax on dividends for the latter since they haven't been paid out yet. Also I wouldn't want to run out of TLH partners, something which I was dealing with earlier in the year with VTIAX (and then VFWAX, and then IXUS...)

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:49 pm

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:57 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:22 pm
I am seeing patients of mine experiencing an uptick in layoffs. For several years no one was laid off. I've seen a small handful recently. Mostly in home related industries (construction, timber, cabinet making, landscaping) and trade (ports, timber). Also I listen regularly to Dave Ramsey and Clark Howard. I've heard more listeners call in over the last three months stating they had lost their job.

No scientific rigor in these samples, but the anecdotes are there.

Still thinking we're looking at a 1-2 quarter flat to slightly negative period of economic growth by summer. Trade shenanigans could worsen things. If dow gets down to the 20,000 I said in April I couldn't complain.
What you are seeing is that the housing market is cooling off. This affects construction, timber, cabinet making, and landscaping. Part of this is due to higher interest rates, part of it is due to affordability. Rents and house prices in our metro area (I live across the river from you) have reached the limits of affordability. Pretty much people still have to eat, they can't put all their money into housing. Can't speak to ports, my suspicion is that economies overseas have cooled a bit, we are seeing this with China.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:08 pm

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:20 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:08 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:57 pm
letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:22 pm
I am seeing patients of mine experiencing an uptick in layoffs. For several years no one was laid off. I've seen a small handful recently. Mostly in home related industries (construction, timber, cabinet making, landscaping) and trade (ports, timber). Also I listen regularly to Dave Ramsey and Clark Howard. I've heard more listeners call in over the last three months stating they had lost their job.

No scientific rigor in these samples, but the anecdotes are there.

Still thinking we're looking at a 1-2 quarter flat to slightly negative period of economic growth by summer. Trade shenanigans could worsen things. If dow gets down to the 20,000 I said in April I couldn't complain.
What you are seeing is that the housing market is cooling off. This affects construction, timber, cabinet making, and landscaping. Part of this is due to higher interest rates, part of it is due to affordability. Rents and house prices in our metro area (I live across the river from you) have reached the limits of affordability. Pretty much people still have to eat, they can't put all their money into housing. Can't speak to ports, my suspicion is that economies overseas have cooled a bit, we are seeing this with China.
Yep, that's what a slowing economy looks like, labor department figures be darned.
What you are seeing is what I call "just in time employees", companies aren't willing to keep employees on and wait for the rebound. This has always been true but I think this trend has been reinforced in recent years. I found in job interviews that the focus was pretty short term, like 3 months. No one seems concerned about longer term issues anymore. So companies will lay off at the drop of a hat nowadays.

Another thing is that the sectors you are speaking about are pretty economically sensitive. Timber, housing, construction are all pretty cyclical industries and can be boom or bust.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:07 pm

I think the current market is either driven by QE unwinding or my dog started eating dry food again. I give each an equal probability.
Don't do something, just stand there!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:19 pm

If U.S. stocks are in free-fall what is Bitcoin in with a 87% drop this year, no dividend cushion ether.

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:22 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:29 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:17 am
Whakamole wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:47 am
Since it's getting close to the end of the year - and I have some possible TLH sales - what do Bogleheads think about talking the TLH now versus waiting until the last trading day in case we keep seeing a drop?
Trying to wait to see if the market drops more is just pure market timing. If you need to TLH, go ahead and do it. I did mine last week and don't regret it.
It's not about marking timing. For instance, I could sell VTSAX for VLCAX, but then my understanding is I'd have to pay a higher tax on dividends for the latter since they haven't been paid out yet. Also I wouldn't want to run out of TLH partners, something which I was dealing with earlier in the year with VTIAX (and then VFWAX, and then IXUS...)
Good point. The dividend aspect slipped my mind (guess that's what happens when you get older... :oops: )
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Houe » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm

How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.

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KlingKlang
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KlingKlang » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:34 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:53 am
When is the Santa Rally supposed to start? :P
December 20. Not specifying which year.

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KlingKlang
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KlingKlang » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:37 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm
How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.
I'm aggravated, but that's nothing new. I kept buying equities 2007 through February 2009, but I had earned income back then.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:40 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm
How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.
This is getting butt ugly. An untouchable limit order of mine just executed; it is only down 0.1% so far. Catch the falling knife; where it stops no one known.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rasta » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:41 pm

corn18 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:07 pm
I think the current market is either driven by QE unwinding or my dog started eating dry food again. I give each an equal probability.
maybe it's based on fundamentals

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:46 pm

rasta wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:41 pm
corn18 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:07 pm
I think the current market is either driven by QE unwinding or my dog started eating dry food again. I give each an equal probability.
maybe it's based on fundamentals
The fundamental algorithm is fundamentally flawed; me thinks.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm
How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.
A core principle of my investing plan is that I have no talent for market timing. Why do you think you do?

amitb00
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by amitb00 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm

Where are 100% stock folks? Also there were folks who wanted to buy if stock was not at all time high? Are they buying?

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:58 pm

Now the folks that went all cash have to decide when to get back in. Seems stressful to me.
Don't do something, just stand there!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:00 pm

amitb00 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm
Where are 100% stock folks? Also there were folks who wanted to buy if stock was not at all time high? Are they buying?
I threw some money at VTSAX on Friday, because Shirley it can't go down even lower. Shirley this market must be oversold by now. :shock:

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:00 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm
How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.
Investing should have little to do with how you are "feeling".

Stay the course. You don't lighten up on equities AFTER they've already gone down.
The J stands for Jay

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:01 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:00 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm
Where are 100% stock folks? Also there were folks who wanted to buy if stock was not at all time high? Are they buying?
I threw some money at VTSAX on Friday, because Shirley it can't go down even lower. Shirley this market must be oversold by now. :shock:
Of course it can go down lower.

And don't call me Shirley. :)
The J stands for Jay

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJW » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:03 pm

amitb00 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm
Where are 100% stock folks?
I'm pretty close to 100% Is there a question I can answer for you?

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