U.S. stocks in freefall

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phantom0308
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by phantom0308 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:25 am

brokenrecord wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 pm
Generally speaking (major indexes), does anyone know how far off we are from a bear market? I've seen headlines such as, "40% of S&P 500 is in Bear territory". All this volatility makes my unsophisticated assessment unclear.
Bear markets are usually defined as a 20% or more drop in prices from the previous peak close to the current close. Corrections are 10%. This is the number on investopedia and Wikipedia and is used enough financial news . People can argue if they want, but I’m not going to.
The previous peak close was 2930.75 on Sep 21, 2018. A bear market would be if we were to close below 2344.6.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:20 am

phantom0308 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:25 am
brokenrecord wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 pm
Generally speaking (major indexes), does anyone know how far off we are from a bear market? I've seen headlines such as, "40% of S&P 500 is in Bear territory". All this volatility makes my unsophisticated assessment unclear.
Bear markets are usually defined as a 20% or more drop in prices from the previous peak close to the current close. Corrections are 10%. This is the number on investopedia and Wikipedia and is used enough financial news . People can argue if they want, but I’m not going to.
The previous peak close was 2930.75 on Sep 21, 2018. A bear market would be if we were to close below 2344.6.
10.96% to go.

bearcub
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bearcub » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:45 am

What about that "Santa Claus" rally CNBC always speaks of? LOL.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:27 am

bearcub wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:45 am
What about that "Santa Claus" rally CNBC always speaks of? LOL.
That is the two weeks before Christmas, so any day now stocks will soar and the media will be full of talk about the Santa rally again lol

bck63
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Re: This is what stocks do.

Post by bck63 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:47 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:52 am
Bogleheads:

With 68 years of investing experience behind me, I have learned THIS IS WHAT STOCKS DO. They go up and down.

Mr. Bogle, who also has many years of investing experience, gives us the simple (but not easy) answer:

Design a suitable asset-allocation plan, then Stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thank you Mr. Larimore! Great advice.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:57 am

bearcub wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:45 am
What about that "Santa Claus" rally CNBC always speaks of? LOL.
It all hinges on a trade deal. There will be a deal but it could be a very bumpy ride. It will not happen until 2019, after my IRA contributions.

raoul
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by raoul » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:03 am

Another prediction bites the dust. :wink:
[/quote]We all should make predictions; then the board will see when it comet predicting nobody knows nothing. Truly, NOBODY KNOWS NOTHING. :annoyed
Except for insider traders, they know things.
[/quote]

Exactly! As an investment person told me years ago - it's ALL rigged. This is why the best bet has been and always will be indexed mutual funds as shown in Vanguard.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:05 am

Between the Santa Claus rally and January effect, we should have a seasonal boom :mrgreen:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sa ... effect.asp
A Santa Claus rally describes sustained increases in the stock market that occur in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. ...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januaryeffect.asp
The January effect is a seasonal increase in stock prices during the month of January.
... Since the beginning of the 20th century, the data suggests that these asset classes have outperformed the overall market in January, especially toward the middle of the month. ...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:43 am

"No one should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product will be profitable or provide any particular investment return. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal."

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fishandgolf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:54 am

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
I did talk to my independent broker today, aka broker #4, and we discussed the very tumultuous markets. He said this had a very mechanical feel to it and that it was probably trading algorithms at work. Folks taking a profit and perhaps tax loss selling as well. Individual investors are not doing this, the big institutions are at fault. I asked him what he was buying and he said nothing. Just sitting tight and looking for opportunity. We did discuss that certain higher dividend, lower volatility stocks like Coke and Proctor and Gamble had been doing well recently. Sort of a flight to defensive stocks.

So it is like battening down the hatches and waiting the storm out. Big institutions, whoever they are, just seem to want this. They are determined to sell right now and there is nothing that us as individuals can do about it.

There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting, meaning that short term yields could exceed long term yields. We aren't there yet, I think 3 and 5 year yields inverted but the rest of the curve still has long rates exceeding short rates but not by very much. You don't get much additional yield by extending maturities. This could mean that the bond market is worried about recession and this in turn is worrying the stock market.

My broker also discussed that the bond market seems to be mispricing risk. We discussed that you don't get significantly higher yields on bonds until you get to investment grade but nearing junk status. You don't get very much additional yield by lowering credit quality. My broker noted that the yield spreads between junk and investment grade are fairly narrow right now. He did say that there still seems to be yield chasing in both the bond and stock markets right now.

So we just have to be patient. These market storms, while not pleasant to go through, are perfectly normal.

This is a classic case of the markets trying to look forward and anticipate. Lots of talk about slowdown but the actual data says the economy is still strong right now.
Thanks nedsaid........appreciate the insight. The economy is still on a healthy track, although there are a few signs of things starting to run their course. I do believe the current volatility will run it's course and we'll be back in the green soon...... albeit.....at a much slower pace.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:02 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:43 am
"No one should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product will be profitable or provide any particular investment return. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal."
We should not assume a specific rate of return, but I darned well assume that the value of my investments will increase over the long-term.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:26 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:43 am
"No one should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product will be profitable or provide any particular investment return. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal."
You're missing one tiny part: "All investing has an expectation of increasing in value over a long run." This is the reason we are here. This is the reason we invest.

Grogs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grogs » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:03 am

fishandgolf wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:54 am
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
I did talk to my independent broker today, aka broker #4, and we discussed the very tumultuous markets. He said this had a very mechanical feel to it and that it was probably trading algorithms at work. Folks taking a profit and perhaps tax loss selling as well. Individual investors are not doing this, the big institutions are at fault. I asked him what he was buying and he said nothing. Just sitting tight and looking for opportunity. We did discuss that certain higher dividend, lower volatility stocks like Coke and Proctor and Gamble had been doing well recently. Sort of a flight to defensive stocks.

So it is like battening down the hatches and waiting the storm out. Big institutions, whoever they are, just seem to want this. They are determined to sell right now and there is nothing that us as individuals can do about it.

There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting, meaning that short term yields could exceed long term yields. We aren't there yet, I think 3 and 5 year yields inverted but the rest of the curve still has long rates exceeding short rates but not by very much. You don't get much additional yield by extending maturities. This could mean that the bond market is worried about recession and this in turn is worrying the stock market.

My broker also discussed that the bond market seems to be mispricing risk. We discussed that you don't get significantly higher yields on bonds until you get to investment grade but nearing junk status. You don't get very much additional yield by lowering credit quality. My broker noted that the yield spreads between junk and investment grade are fairly narrow right now. He did say that there still seems to be yield chasing in both the bond and stock markets right now.

So we just have to be patient. These market storms, while not pleasant to go through, are perfectly normal.

This is a classic case of the markets trying to look forward and anticipate. Lots of talk about slowdown but the actual data says the economy is still strong right now.
Thanks nedsaid........appreciate the insight. The economy is still on a healthy track, although there are a few signs of things starting to run their course. I do believe the current volatility will run it's course and we'll be back in the green soon...... albeit.....at a much slower pace.
I agree that the economy is still doing well, but since the 2016 elections it seems to me that the market has been driven up primarily be expectations rather than actual events. Some expectations (like corporate tax cuts) happened, but didn't necessarily have the full effect. In other cases, the markets seemed to totally shrug off bad news (e.g., tariffs) and keep climbing. I think this could just be a realignment from pricing on expectations of great things to come to a more realistic assessment of things as they are. I wouldn't expect a huge drop on that basis, but maybe something like an overall 10-20% drop before continuing upwards would be reasonable.

As for Ned's comments about big institutions being determined to sell, I'm sure they'll find many Bogleheads willing to help them out on the other side of the trade. I only hope that they'll wait until at least January when I have the cash to fund my IRA before they come to their senses. :happy

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:22 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting,
If that curve inverts it will be like crossing the beams in the Ghost Busters movie.
Whoa. Total protonic reversal?
The J stands for Jay

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hdas » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:38 pm

Let us see if the ominous Bad Friday --> Bad Monday behavior prevails. One notices the 1% feeble bounce off the lows in the last hour. Realized Vol > Implied Vol at the moment. Maybe a fellow traveler can help us put the numbers on the table with that. Be safe out there. :greedy
Stay the course and buy some more.

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fishandgolf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:39 pm

Grogs wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:03 am
fishandgolf wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:54 am
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
I did talk to my independent broker today, aka broker #4, and we discussed the very tumultuous markets. He said this had a very mechanical feel to it and that it was probably trading algorithms at work. Folks taking a profit and perhaps tax loss selling as well. Individual investors are not doing this, the big institutions are at fault. I asked him what he was buying and he said nothing. Just sitting tight and looking for opportunity. We did discuss that certain higher dividend, lower volatility stocks like Coke and Proctor and Gamble had been doing well recently. Sort of a flight to defensive stocks.

So it is like battening down the hatches and waiting the storm out. Big institutions, whoever they are, just seem to want this. They are determined to sell right now and there is nothing that us as individuals can do about it.

There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting, meaning that short term yields could exceed long term yields. We aren't there yet, I think 3 and 5 year yields inverted but the rest of the curve still has long rates exceeding short rates but not by very much. You don't get much additional yield by extending maturities. This could mean that the bond market is worried about recession and this in turn is worrying the stock market.

My broker also discussed that the bond market seems to be mispricing risk. We discussed that you don't get significantly higher yields on bonds until you get to investment grade but nearing junk status. You don't get very much additional yield by lowering credit quality. My broker noted that the yield spreads between junk and investment grade are fairly narrow right now. He did say that there still seems to be yield chasing in both the bond and stock markets right now.

So we just have to be patient. These market storms, while not pleasant to go through, are perfectly normal.

This is a classic case of the markets trying to look forward and anticipate. Lots of talk about slowdown but the actual data says the economy is still strong right now.
Thanks nedsaid........appreciate the insight. The economy is still on a healthy track, although there are a few signs of things starting to run their course. I do believe the current volatility will run it's course and we'll be back in the green soon...... albeit.....at a much slower pace.
I agree that the economy is still doing well, but since the 2016 elections it seems to me that the market has been driven up primarily be expectations rather than actual events. Some expectations (like corporate tax cuts) happened, but didn't necessarily have the full effect. In other cases, the markets seemed to totally shrug off bad news (e.g., tariffs) and keep climbing. I think this could just be a realignment from pricing on expectations of great things to come to a more realistic assessment of things as they are. I wouldn't expect a huge drop on that basis, but maybe something like an overall 10-20% drop before continuing upwards would be reasonable.

As for Ned's comments about big institutions being determined to sell, I'm sure they'll find many Bogleheads willing to help them out on the other side of the trade. I only hope that they'll wait until at least January when I have the cash to fund my IRA before they come to their senses. :happy
+1

Agreed Grogs. I think the tariff thing has already been baked into this cake........more or less anyway. I do believe as interest rates continue to make their way north, (which could be the case within the next 12-18 months) the economy will gently start a pull back, less of course, a severe event happens (black swanish type thing) somewhere around the globe; then who knows what will happen. Best to do the BH thing......steady as she goes......

:sharebeer

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:33 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:22 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting,
If that curve inverts it will be like crossing the beams in the Ghost Busters movie.
Whoa. Total protonic reversal?
It's crossing "the streams".
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:38 pm

H-Town wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:26 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:43 am
"No one should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product will be profitable or provide any particular investment return. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal."
You're missing one tiny part: "All investing has an expectation of increasing in value over a long run." This is the reason we are here. This is the reason we invest.
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:02 am
We should not assume a specific rate of return, but I darned well assume that the value of my investments will increase over the long-term.
Not my words, notice the quotes. Take it up with the moneychangers who wrote it. You have been warned.

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goodenyou
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Re: This is what stocks do.

Post by goodenyou » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm

bck63 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:47 am
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:52 am
Bogleheads:

With 68 years of investing experience behind me, I have learned THIS IS WHAT STOCKS DO. They go up and down.

Mr. Bogle, who also has many years of investing experience, gives us the simple (but not easy) answer:

Design a suitable asset-allocation plan, then Stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thank you Mr. Larimore! Great advice.

In the 1927 book “Security Speculation – The Dazzling Adventure,” Laurence H. Sloan repeated the now famous anecdote 1 about J.P.Morgan’s view of the stock markets:

History has it that young man once found himself in the immediate presence of the late Mr. J. P. Morgan. Seeking to improve the golden moment, he ventured to inquire Mr. Morgan’s opinion as to the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become classic: “Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

J G Bankerton
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Re: This is what stocks do.

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:44 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm
“Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
That would stink. :P

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willthrill81
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Re: This is what stocks do.

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:46 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm
“Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
That would stink. :P
"Will stocks go up or down?"

"Yes."
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:50 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:33 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:22 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting,
If that curve inverts it will be like crossing the beams in the Ghost Busters movie.
Whoa. Total protonic reversal?
It's crossing "the streams".
Could a beam be a stream? A beam of light streamed through the clouds bring joy and a rally for Christmas.

All Seasons
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Re: This is what stocks do.

Post by All Seasons » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:48 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:46 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm
“Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
That would stink. :P
"Will stocks go up or down?"

"Yes."
https://www.reddit.com/r/InclusiveOr/
The market portfolio is always a legitimate portfolio.

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:54 pm

Interesting to see where Futures open tonight.
In other news, some analyst from Morgan Stanley said that 'there is a lot of fake information baked into stock prices".

I guess we should expect alternative stock prices being published by the 'venerable' house of the Morgan and Stanley.
Question is: are they going to just publish those, or let us trade against their fake prices.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:12 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Interesting to see where Futures open tonight.
In other news, some analyst from Morgan Stanley said that 'there is a lot of fake information baked into stock prices".

I guess we should expect alternative stock prices being published by the 'venerable' house of the Morgan and Stanley.
Question is: are they going to just publish those, or let us trade against their fake prices.
lol @ people paying Morgan Stanley for that kind of analysis.

Perhaps this is only a fake freefall then???

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:20 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:12 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Interesting to see where Futures open tonight.
In other news, some analyst from Morgan Stanley said that 'there is a lot of fake information baked into stock prices".

I guess we should expect alternative stock prices being published by the 'venerable' house of the Morgan and Stanley.
Question is: are they going to just publish those, or let us trade against their fake prices.
lol @ people paying Morgan Stanley for that kind of analysis.

Perhaps this is only a fake freefall then???
Realistically, no one pays for that kind of 'public' 'analysis'. Bloomberg essentially published what was in there.

But you are right: LoL @ the higher-ups at Morgan Stanley for employing people like that.

As for the fake free-fall. Sure. Morgan Stanley is going to start publishing alternative stock prices. /sarcasm

"Fake and Bad News Is Depressing Market, JPM’s Kolanovic Says"

Though, I stand corrected: it was not the house of Morgan and Stanley, but rather, the original house of Morgan.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:12 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Interesting to see where Futures open tonight.
In other news, some analyst from Morgan Stanley said that 'there is a lot of fake information baked into stock prices".

I guess we should expect alternative stock prices being published by the 'venerable' house of the Morgan and Stanley.
Question is: are they going to just publish those, or let us trade against their fake prices.
lol @ people paying Morgan Stanley for that kind of analysis.

Perhaps this is only a fake freefall then???
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
A fool and his money are good for business.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:09 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry.
I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have.

harmoniousmonk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by harmoniousmonk » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:55 pm

S and P futures down 2.33%
In efficient markets, mediocrity is the norm. | Never confuse genius for luck and a bull market.

jfmiii
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jfmiii » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:04 pm

harmoniousmonk wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:55 pm
S and P futures down 2.33%
Ummm, No, they aren't.

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:36 pm

harmoniousmonk wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:55 pm
S and P futures down 2.33%
SPUs down about 18 points, or 0.6-0.7%.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:18 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:09 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry.
I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have.
Since July of 2013, I have been rebalancing from stocks to bonds every time the US Stock Market has hit new highs. My last round of rebalancing was December 2017. Since then, have let everything alone the exception being switching funds around when I rolled a couple of Fidelity workplace savings plans into a Fidelity Rollover IRA. Kept the same asset classes and allocations but had to switch funds, a lot of switching Vanguard funds from the old workplace savings plans into similar Fidelity products. I also used ETFs for such things as International Bonds, International Small Value, and US Small Value.
A fool and his money are good for business.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:57 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:09 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry.
I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have.
Please be sarcasm.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:26 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:57 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:09 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry.
I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have.
Please be sarcasm.
Sad but true. I was in the zero long term gain bracket except for the additional social security tax. I could sell the lots I bought that are down but then the long term gain clock would start again. That won't happen again as I no longer qualify for ZERO long term tax.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:04 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:26 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:57 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:09 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
The fall in my portfolio value has been real.
Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry.
I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have.
Please be sarcasm.
Sad but true. I was in the zero long term gain bracket except for the additional social security tax. I could sell the lots I bought that are down but then the long term gain clock would start again. That won't happen again as I no longer qualify for ZERO long term tax.
Why not defer that and save on income this year?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:00 pm

The discussion is getting a bit derailed. Please stay on-topic.

Feel free to start a new thread to continue the discussion.
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Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:15 pm

I did all my end of year buying on Tuesday (when it almost recovered and stayed flat). I don't have much left to buy into it for the rest of the year, so expect it to keep going down.

In other news, while I am putting in less money the student loans are also in freefall and 10% paid off after 3 months. Better return than the last year in the market but we'll see if that holds up.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:05 am

Tempted to invest my 2019 Roth contribution now. Not really market timing based on my IPS that states to invest all cash ASAP.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:39 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:05 am
Tempted to invest my 2019 Roth contribution now. Not really market timing based on my IPS that states to invest all cash ASAP.
You can't contribute until January 1st for 2019. I am hoping the rally holds off until after the 1st. So far so good. DOW futures are down .7% so far today.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:55 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:39 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:05 am
Tempted to invest my 2019 Roth contribution now. Not really market timing based on my IPS that states to invest all cash ASAP.
You can't contribute until January 1st for 2019. I am hoping the rally holds off until after the 1st. So far so good. DOW futures are down .7% so far today.
$6K in taxable, sell $6K worth no matter what, come 2019. Pay tax on gain (yay) or right off loss and maintain exposure (I do this all the time in taxable).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:28 am

"China summons US, Canadian ambassadors in 'strong protest ' over Huawei CFO's arrest."
If China starts arresting American businessmen there will be no bottom to this freefall.
Foreign stock futures are down almost 2%, US stocks down .7%.
The smart money is betting on US.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fennewaldaj » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:36 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:28 am
Foreign stock futures are down almost 2%, US stocks down .7%.
The smart money is betting on US.
I think part of that is they are just catching up with the declines the US market made Friday after they were already closed.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:57 am

Should be an interesting week. :twisted:
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:40 am

The freefall is over, US futures are up. Oh fudge, I was going to buy one more dip..

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:44 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:40 am
The freefall is over, US futures are up. Oh fudge, I was going to buy one more dip..
Barely up, and the market isn't even open yet.
Is "oh fudge" supposed to be a negative? I like fudge.... Ohhh fudge Mmm... 😋
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:56 am

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:44 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:40 am
The freefall is over, US futures are up. Oh fudge, I was going to buy one more dip..
Barely up, and the market isn't even open yet.
Is "oh fudge" supposed to be a negative? I like fudge.... Ohhh fudge Mmm... 😋
I didn't want to say oh poop.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vwgrrc » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:21 am

Thinking about convert my tIRA to Roth and rebalance to more stock at the same time. Should I do it this week or not :confused

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