U.S. stocks in freefall

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letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am

And this was the thread I was trying to link.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253655

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:34 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
And this was the thread I was trying to link.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253655
Yes, that thread helps make the point about market breadth.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:38 am

Looking at Global markets this evening and US futures, figured I'd warm up this thread for the incoming drop today. :twisted:
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hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hdas » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:05 am

pokebowl wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:38 am
Looking at Global markets this evening and US futures, figured I'd warm up this thread for the incoming drop today. :twisted:
Right now around 2730. Intraday low of the correction (so far) is circa 2712 in futures. Perhaps dip buyers try their hand again around there. What’s most interesting is the October month end settlement. The tactical allocation models could trigger then.

So far none of the trend followers have shared their exit levels for US equities.... :confused

grettman
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grettman » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:28 am

hdas wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:05 am
pokebowl wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:38 am
Looking at Global markets this evening and US futures, figured I'd warm up this thread for the incoming drop today. :twisted:
Right now around 2730. Intraday low of the correction (so far) is circa 2712 in futures. Perhaps dip buyers try their hand again around there. What’s most interesting is the October month end settlement. The tactical allocation models could trigger then.

So far none of the trend followers have shared their exit levels for US equities.... :confused
What does any of this mean? “Tactical allocation models could trigger then ”? What is that and what is the subject that will be triggered.

NoMad18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NoMad18 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:42 am

grettman wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:28 am
hdas wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:05 am
pokebowl wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:38 am
Looking at Global markets this evening and US futures, figured I'd warm up this thread for the incoming drop today. :twisted:
Right now around 2730. Intraday low of the correction (so far) is circa 2712 in futures. Perhaps dip buyers try their hand again around there. What’s most interesting is the October month end settlement. The tactical allocation models could trigger then.

So far none of the trend followers have shared their exit levels for US equities.... :confused
What does any of this mean? “Tactical allocation models could trigger then ”? What is that and what is the subject that will be triggered.
+1

arsenalfan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by arsenalfan » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:42 am

Some light reading on Tactical Asset Allocation by our friends @ Vanguard
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/flgtaa.pdf

"Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts.Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or subasset classes. Over time, strategic long-term target allocations are the most important determinant of total return for a broadly diversified portfolio. TAA can add value at the margin, if designed with the appropriate rigor to overcome significant risk factors and obstacles unique to the strategy. Our results show that while some TAA strategies have added value, on average TAA strategies have not produced statistically significant excess returns over all time periods."

Basically sounds like market timing to me.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by carofe » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:16 am

arsenalfan wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:42 am
Some light reading on Tactical Asset Allocation by our friends @ Vanguard
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/flgtaa.pdf

"Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts.Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or subasset classes. Over time, strategic long-term target allocations are the most important determinant of total return for a broadly diversified portfolio. TAA can add value at the margin, if designed with the appropriate rigor to overcome significant risk factors and obstacles unique to the strategy. Our results show that while some TAA strategies have added value, on average TAA strategies have not produced statistically significant excess returns over all time periods."

Basically sounds like market timing to me.
Well, market timing is not a sin :). Anyway, TAA if you want to do it, is generally around extreme valuation events (high or low) and usually no more than 10% drift.
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:21 am

pokebowl wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:38 am
Looking at Global markets this evening and US futures, figured I'd warm up this thread for the incoming drop today. :twisted:
Damn, I'll be too busy working to monitor today's dropping !

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:30 am

Whoops. Ugliness Alert today. Hide the children.
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by yousha » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:37 am

It's a rough life if you don't weaken!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:39 am

DOW is back below 25,000. Lots of major companies reporting quarterly earnings this week, so expect dramatic swings.

Notable companies reporting earnings include McDonald’s (MCD), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Verizon (VZ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Harley-Davidson (HOG) on Tuesday; Microsoft (MSFT), Boeing (BA), UPS (UPS), AT&T (T), Visa (V), Ford (F), AMD (AMD), and Whirlpool (WHR) on Wednesday; Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Gilead (GILD), Chipotle (CMG), Merck (MRK), Twitter (TWTR), Altria (MO), Discover Financial (DFS), and Comcast (CMCSA) on Thursday; and Moody’s (MCO), Philips 66 (PSX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Weyerhaeuser (WY) on Friday.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:47 am

Well, we are going to get that 10% correction whether we want it or not. The market seems to want it and not much we can do but ride it out.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ron » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:54 am

On a positive side, my/wife's RMD's for next year will be lower than this year, assuming the downturn extends to Dec 31st :mrgreen: ...

- Ron

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:05 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:47 am
Well, we are going to get that 10% correction whether we want it or not. The market seems to want it and not much we can do but ride it out.
International is already there this year.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:07 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:47 am
Well, we are going to get that 10% correction whether we want it or not. The market seems to want it and not much we can do but ride it out.
Had one in Late Jan to early feb. Intl is closing in on technical bear market at 20% from Jan highs.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:07 am

Read something this AM that ~76% of S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far have BEAT earnings. So why the &*!%^% is the market tanking when one or two companies (3M, CAT) barely miss or beat?

Ditto on the Fed raising rates - we've known what the Fed was going to do for a year now. No new news.

Seems the market is intent on freaking out over every little perceived thing at the moment - Saudia Arabia, Italy, Fed rates, ~24% of S&P companies meeting or barely missing numbers.

What the heck am I missing here? We have the strongest economy in DECADES and the lemmings are jumping over each other to dive off the cliff. Makes zero sense.

Picked a heck of a year to retire..ugh. Thankfully I don't have to sell equities to pay the bills.

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:09 am

so sorry folks. had to continue my value averaging (and into value stocks, no less) yesterday afternoon. i will have to keep buying through October so you may just want to sit out the next trading week. after each buy you can count on the market tanking another couple of percent.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:14 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:09 am
so sorry folks. had to continue my value averaging (and into value stocks, no less) yesterday afternoon. i will have to keep buying through October so you may just want to sit out the next trading week. after each buy you can count on the market tanking another couple of percent.
Go for it. It just makes DW's 401k purchases that much better.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:15 am

45 minutes in, S&P500 down 2.0%. Hang on for the bumps.
:shock:
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:17 am

I guess I was lucky when I pulled $200k out of the market for a house downpayment 2 weeks ago. Not sure whether to be happy or sad.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J295 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:17 am

Markets move .... zzzzzzz

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JimmyD » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:18 am

Making a large FTIPX purchase toward the end of the day if this continues. Fingers crossed.

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:19 am

This thread will be very popular over the next several years.

It will be very interesting to watch how many stick to their asset allocation vs panic.

I look forward to it all.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chisey » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:26 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:07 am
Read something this AM that ~76% of S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far have BEAT earnings. So why the &*!%^% is the market tanking when one or two companies (3M, CAT) barely miss or beat?

Ditto on the Fed raising rates - we've known what the Fed was going to do for a year now. No new news.

Seems the market is intent on freaking out over every little perceived thing at the moment - Saudia Arabia, Italy, Fed rates, ~24% of S&P companies meeting or barely missing numbers.

What the heck am I missing here? We have the strongest economy in DECADES and the lemmings are jumping over each other to dive off the cliff. Makes zero sense.

Picked a heck of a year to retire..ugh. Thankfully I don't have to sell equities to pay the bills.
Because the market's climb was based largely on the speculation that earnings would continue to go through the roof. Those expectations were priced in. When they start failing to materialize, they get priced out. Are market participants now overreacting? Maybe. But arguably they already overreacted by pushing the market up.

On a more personal note, I'm sorry that the timing of all this is to your detriment as a recent retiree. I know that must be frustrating and perhaps a bit scary.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minesweep » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:37 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:19 am
This thread will be very popular over the next several years.

It will be very interesting to watch how many stick to their asset allocation vs panic.

I look forward to it all.
This thread has been popular for the past 7 years.

Here is the OP's initial post:
DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?
Those individual investors who stayed the course were rewarded. I don't know what the stock market wilil do in the next several years, but I suspect the true Bogleheads will once again stay the course.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:47 am

A few key companies krapped the bed today, so to speak.
We will see if the pattern continues.

CAPE = Price / Sum(earnings).

Some people are hoping that earnings would go up, and the tail end of the Sum is in 2008 / 2009. So, net, there will be a big gain in the denominator, reducing CAPE.

But earnings can also go down. 10 year bull cycle is a long time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 22twain » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:03 am

The markets are probably worried about a possible sudden influx of $900 million or so after tonight's Mega Millions drawing. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:07 am
Read something this AM that ~76% of S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far have BEAT earnings. So why the &*!%^% is the market tanking when one or two companies (3M, CAT) barely miss or beat?

Ditto on the Fed raising rates - we've known what the Fed was going to do for a year now. No new news.

Seems the market is intent on freaking out over every little perceived thing at the moment - Saudia Arabia, Italy, Fed rates, ~24% of S&P companies meeting or barely missing numbers.

What the heck am I missing here? We have the strongest economy in DECADES and the lemmings are jumping over each other to dive off the cliff. Makes zero sense.

Picked a heck of a year to retire..ugh. Thankfully I don't have to sell equities to pay the bills.
When the market was up a few weeks ago, you could hardly find a reason how it could be down.
When the market is down like today, you could not hard find a reason how it should be up. There are lots of reasons it should go down, as you listed, plus the trade issues.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2pedals » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:19 am

"The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible." Bernard Baruch

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:44 am

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am
When the market was up a few weeks ago, you could hardly find a reason how it could be down.
When the market is down like today, you could not hard find a reason how it should be up. There are lots of reasons it should go down, as you listed, plus the trade issues.
Actually, I was questioning why any of the listed "reasons" would impact us one iota:

- Saudia Arabia - questions around the death of a journalist have NOTHING to do with our markets. Should have zero effect.

- Italy - ditto. Long way from the US. If Italian yields fall OR rise, I don't see any correlation to our markets.

- 76% of S&P companies BEATING earnings so far this quarter - market should be WAY UP, not down. (Instead, market freaks out because TWO WHOLE COMPANIES - CAT and 3M came up a tiny bit short. Yipee. In the meantime, the other 76% of companies that have announced BEAT earnings).

- Fed Rates - who cares? We've known for a year know. There is no surprise whatsoever. ie - the market should not react one iota to what's been known for over a year.

Seems every day the talking heads / financial press are spewing out new "reasons" for the drop - all of which IMHO are pure BS. Every reason I've heard so far does not hold a drop of credibility and flies in the face of any rational thought / common sense. It's literally like they are making up things at this point - perhaps to further scare the sheep. One can reasonably wonder why. I have my theories, but since we can't discuss politics here will just leave it at that.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:51 am

Think of it as a time machine. The S&P 500 is now back to about May 2018.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:53 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:44 am
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am
When the market was up a few weeks ago, you could hardly find a reason how it could be down.
When the market is down like today, you could not hard find a reason how it should be up. There are lots of reasons it should go down, as you listed, plus the trade issues.
Actually, I was questioning why any of the listed "reasons" would impact us one iota:

- Saudia Arabia - questions around the death of a journalist have NOTHING to do with our markets. Should have zero effect.

- Italy - ditto. Long way from the US. If Italian yields fall OR rise, I don't see any correlation to our markets.

- 76% of S&P companies BEATING earnings so far this quarter - market should be WAY UP, not down. (Instead, market freaks out because TWO WHOLE COMPANIES - CAT and 3M came up a tiny bit short. Yipee. In the meantime, the other 76% of companies that have announced BEAT earnings).

- Fed Rates - who cares? We've known for a year know. There is no surprise whatsoever. ie - the market should not react one iota to what's been known for over a year.

Seems every day the talking heads / financial press are spewing out new "reasons" for the drop - all of which IMHO are pure BS. Every reason I've heard so far does not hold a drop of credibility and flies in the face of any rational thought / common sense. It's literally like they are making up things at this point - perhaps to further scare the sheep. One can reasonably wonder why. I have my theories, but since we can't discuss politics here will just leave it at that.
Stock prices are forward looking.

- Saudia Arabia = Concerns over instability in the middle east = Oil price rises = Inflation
- Italy - If Italy leaves the Euro area, the EU and the Euro itself could falter. EU makes up a big chunk of world economy and this could cascade through the economic system
- Agreed.
- Agreed.

- The biggest concern in my opinion is a trade war with China. Up until now the market may have been thinking "Maybe it will happen maybe it wont, maybe it is just bluster, maybe China will cave, etc." and now the market may be switching to a "The trade war is here, it is inevitable, it is happening, and we dont actually fully know how bad it is going to get and how it will impact us".

The uncertainty and concern is enough for some to reduce their risk.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by marcopolo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:53 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:44 am
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am
When the market was up a few weeks ago, you could hardly find a reason how it could be down.
When the market is down like today, you could not hard find a reason how it should be up. There are lots of reasons it should go down, as you listed, plus the trade issues.
Actually, I was questioning why any of the listed "reasons" would impact us one iota:

- Saudia Arabia - questions around the death of a journalist have NOTHING to do with our markets. Should have zero effect.

- Italy - ditto. Long way from the US. If Italian yields fall OR rise, I don't see any correlation to our markets.

- 76% of S&P companies BEATING earnings so far this quarter - market should be WAY UP, not down. (Instead, market freaks out because TWO WHOLE COMPANIES - CAT and 3M came up a tiny bit short. Yipee. In the meantime, the other 76% of companies that have announced BEAT earnings).

- Fed Rates - who cares? We've known for a year know. There is no surprise whatsoever. ie - the market should not react one iota to what's been known for over a year.

Seems every day the talking heads / financial press are spewing out new "reasons" for the drop - all of which IMHO are pure BS. Every reason I've heard so far does not hold a drop of credibility and flies in the face of any rational thought / common sense. It's literally like they are making up things at this point - perhaps to further scare the sheep. One can reasonably wonder why. I have my theories, but since we can't discuss politics here will just leave it at that.

Did you have similar concerns when markets were going up and up?
Talking heads were spewing all sorts of nonsense about why that was happening, none of that made any sense either. In the short term, market fluctuations are noise, long term, they are driven by underlying company performance.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 am

I can't contribute theory, just my own buying process. I "comparison shop" stocks vs bonds. I hold stocks now because the returns on safe assets are too low. When interest rates go enough higher than they are now, I'm going to shift away somewhat from stocks to bonds. But, we're not there yet. So while I don't enjoy seeing my stocks go down, as they have lately, they still look better than bonds. I'm staying the course, to coin a phrase.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:55 am

Rebalance, DCA.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:05 pm

Bogle's animal spirits are still at work methinks. The indicators still do not point to an immediate recession on the horizon.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:09 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:05 pm
Bogle's animal spirits are still at work methinks. The indicators still do not point to an immediate recession on the horizon.
Agree. With the unemployment rate still at an all-time low, businesses clearly have money to spend and are very much spending.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:22 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:09 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:05 pm
Bogle's animal spirits are still at work methinks. The indicators still do not point to an immediate recession on the horizon.
Agree. With the unemployment rate still at an all-time low, businesses clearly have money to spend and are very much spending.
And the purchasing manager index is still very high (59.8%), and corporate earnings are very strong. The market may not move up for a while, but I don't see it dropping by 20% any time soon.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by carofe » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:26 pm

I think the real "bad news" is that China is having the perfect storm, slowing down economy with trade tension from US. The trade war are not causing the slowdown but a combination of factors including the trade war. There is nothing Trump can do to stop it.
If China gets into a recession period, the effect will be noticed across EM, Europe and beyond, directly or indirectly.
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are less likely to start businesses as well. Combo that with what you talked about...well I don’t know.

I do know I’m investing less than I could be as a result of my spouse’s student loans. If the market can stay flat for a while I won’t feel so bad about it. If it goes up or down, oh well.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:59 pm

Stay the course. Keep buying more employees, I mean shares.

mancich
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mancich » Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:25 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:15 am
45 minutes in, S&P500 down 2.0%. Hang on for the bumps.
:shock:
And as I post this at 3:24 EST, S&P 500 is down .11%. Dow was down 500 at one point today, now down only 22. What changed in the last 6 hours? Nothing of substance. This is all silly market psychology, and therefore that lends even further credence to "Stay the Course". :sharebeer

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:52 pm

Well, the market sure looks better at the close than it looked early this morning.

And, GE was my best performer again, up 2.5%. Of course the 2.5% increase only cuts my overall losses a bit. GE is my long-term project for this go-round of my fun/mad money account. Fortunately my other four individual stock holdings are sopping up the blood GE is leaking, quite nicely.

I honestly hope the newbies reading the various threads aren't spooked into making radical, self-defeating changes in their hopefully solid, age-appropriate AA of their portfolio.

I think Warren Buffet said something along the lines of: Only those selling hamburger should dislike hamburger being on sale, everyone else should be glad. I totally get the angst a young investor might be feeling when their meager account balance gets hit. But, they have to keep stashing the cash. Honestly easier said than done.

BEFORE we started drawing on our retirement portfolio, I used to like to see good declines in the market. Now, not so much. Not nearly as much fun. :|

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:21 pm

mancich wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:25 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:15 am
45 minutes in, S&P500 down 2.0%. Hang on for the bumps.
:shock:
And as I post this at 3:24 EST, S&P 500 is down .11%. Dow was down 500 at one point today, now down only 22. What changed in the last 6 hours? Nothing of substance. This is all silly market psychology, and therefore that lends even further credence to "Stay the Course". :sharebeer
In my view, it continues to cast doubt on how efficient the markets truly are. If the EMH is accurate, then big market swings shouldn't occur in the absence of pertinent new data. But because it's so hard to predict which way the animal spirits will turn next, beating that less than perfectly efficient consistently after costs is still very difficult.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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linenfort
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by linenfort » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:59 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:21 pm
In my view, it continues to cast doubt on how efficient the markets truly are. If the EMH is accurate, then big market swings shouldn't occur in the absence of pertinent new data. But because it's so hard to predict which way the animal spirits will turn next, beating that less than perfectly efficient consistently after costs is still very difficult.
I always wonder if it’s not so much animal spirits as silicon & software.
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

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IcedDog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by IcedDog » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm

As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?

Jags4186
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jags4186 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:29 pm

IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
Typical. I guess lots of people have short memories. We had a 280 point drop in the SP500 over a 2 week period spanning January and February this year. We also had a 800 point rise over a 15 month period spanning October 2016 thru January 2018.

Remember, volatility goes both directions.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:36 pm

linenfort wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:59 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:21 pm
In my view, it continues to cast doubt on how efficient the markets truly are. If the EMH is accurate, then big market swings shouldn't occur in the absence of pertinent new data. But because it's so hard to predict which way the animal spirits will turn next, beating that less than perfectly efficient consistently after costs is still very difficult.
I always wonder if it’s not so much animal spirits as silicon & software.
The animals may indeed by digital today.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

TheDDC
Posts: 211
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheDDC » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:47 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:29 pm
IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
Typical. I guess lots of people have short memories. We had a 280 point drop in the SP500 over a 2 week period spanning January and February this year. We also had a 800 point rise over a 15 month period spanning October 2016 thru January 2018.

Remember, volatility goes both directions.
Oh I remember. Right before that drop was when I've used to drop $25k in a new taxable account. Now I'm down by $2k.

-TheDDC

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