U.S. stocks in freefall

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dougger5
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dougger5 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:49 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:56 am
90% would make me regret being 100% equities but presumably I will be more worried about other things like a global flu pandemic wiping out the planet
I guess I'll be the one to point out that a global flu pandemic would not ever wipe out the planet.

The humans who inhabit it, on the other hand...

:happy
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

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oriol
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oriol » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:48 pm

Still above 10MA - yawn!
bitmia.com/u/phatcat

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onthecusp
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by onthecusp » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:06 pm

Did anyone see where my car went?

It was parked on top of the rest of my retirement funds that are still there.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:46 pm

onthecusp wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:06 pm
Did anyone see where my car went?

It was parked on top of the rest of my retirement funds that are still there.
You shoulda bought one with more safety features.

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onthecusp
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by onthecusp » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:02 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:46 pm
onthecusp wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:06 pm
Did anyone see where my car went?

It was parked on top of the rest of my retirement funds that are still there.
You shoulda bought one with more safety features.
Yeah, maybe 60/40 crash protection! LOL

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:51 am

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

lazydavid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lazydavid » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:06 am

husky1055 wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:55 am
Just wonder how many people on this board really saw this correction or market freefall coming? I will admit that I was surprised by its intensity and widespread retreat.
Not specifically, no. But in broader terms, yes, and anticipation of that changed our plans to replace our car. First, we did it a bit earlier that we perhaps might have (old car was 12yo/170k miles), and once we had decided to move forward, we were basically choosing between two ways of paying for it:

1. Sell from taxable and pay cash; continue contributing to taxable as normal
2. Take a loan and reduce automatic contributions to taxable by the amount of the monthly payment

In a somewhat market-timing move, we elected for #1 (or very close to it, we actually financed for about 6 weeks to get $1100 back from the mfr, paying $71 in interest). Reasoning was that given the long bull run, I was making a wager that over the five-year term of a typical loan, the CAGR of my taxable account would not likely exceed the 4-5% interest rate on a loan by a significant amount.

As of last Friday, we're just shy of $5k ahead less than two months in, so sequence-of-returns risk is currently substantially in our favor. :mrgreen:

staythecourse
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:12 am

ginmqi wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:18 pm
I'm a relatively young investor here in the beginning years of my retirement portfolio accumulation phase. Been with Vanguard for about 5 years now since I started my career.

Currently in 100% equities. And I am EAGERLY awaiting a huge bear market...because it simply means stocks are at a discount. And I fully subscribe to the mantra of buy low, sell high...which no one seems to follow in reality.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating for any job loss or losing families/households, that is horrible. But currently hoping for another bear market as the continuing bull market in the past few years really has me bummed due to the higher stock prices. It's funny because I am probably 1 of only a handful of people that actually gets depressed when I see the market keep going up and up....but I know eventually it will come down which means discounts for shares! :sharebeer
Just curious what makes you think YOU won't get fired in a extended bear market? Overconfidence in folks job security is a huge problem even on this site. I'm a doc married to a doc and can't say 100% my wife couldn't get fired or be asked to reduce her salary if the market tanked for awhile and profits decreased for her employer. I work for myself so know I can't get fired. So not sure how others are so confident they have such a rock stable occupation/ career.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:37 am

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:12 am
ginmqi wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:18 pm
I'm a relatively young investor here in the beginning years of my retirement portfolio accumulation phase. Been with Vanguard for about 5 years now since I started my career.

Currently in 100% equities. And I am EAGERLY awaiting a huge bear market...because it simply means stocks are at a discount. And I fully subscribe to the mantra of buy low, sell high...which no one seems to follow in reality.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating for any job loss or losing families/households, that is horrible. But currently hoping for another bear market as the continuing bull market in the past few years really has me bummed due to the higher stock prices. It's funny because I am probably 1 of only a handful of people that actually gets depressed when I see the market keep going up and up....but I know eventually it will come down which means discounts for shares! :sharebeer
Just curious what makes you think YOU won't get fired in a extended bear market? Overconfidence in folks job security is a huge problem even on this site. I'm a doc married to a doc and can't say 100% my wife couldn't get fired or be asked to reduce her salary if the market tanked for awhile and profits decreased for her employer. I work for myself so know I can't get fired. So not sure how others are so confident they have such a rock stable occupation/ career.

Good luck.
And another point is even if you work for yourself, a crumbling economy can hurt when people/businesses can’t pay what they owe. Back after the dot com bust/Y2K/2001 economy tank, people were not able to pay my husband (owns a tech company) because their businesses were drying up. Husband ended up not getting paid over 100k for work he completed. Other businesses he worked for were going bankrupt or had no cash flow and couldn’t pay. Since we had little kids and a mortgage at the time, not a lot of savings and the market was down (we were 100% equities), it was not fun. We are now usually at 75/25 equities/fixed income.

staythecourse
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:27 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:37 am
staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:12 am
ginmqi wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:18 pm
I'm a relatively young investor here in the beginning years of my retirement portfolio accumulation phase. Been with Vanguard for about 5 years now since I started my career.

Currently in 100% equities. And I am EAGERLY awaiting a huge bear market...because it simply means stocks are at a discount. And I fully subscribe to the mantra of buy low, sell high...which no one seems to follow in reality.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating for any job loss or losing families/households, that is horrible. But currently hoping for another bear market as the continuing bull market in the past few years really has me bummed due to the higher stock prices. It's funny because I am probably 1 of only a handful of people that actually gets depressed when I see the market keep going up and up....but I know eventually it will come down which means discounts for shares! :sharebeer
Just curious what makes you think YOU won't get fired in a extended bear market? Overconfidence in folks job security is a huge problem even on this site. I'm a doc married to a doc and can't say 100% my wife couldn't get fired or be asked to reduce her salary if the market tanked for awhile and profits decreased for her employer. I work for myself so know I can't get fired. So not sure how others are so confident they have such a rock stable occupation/ career.

Good luck.
And another point is even if you work for yourself, a crumbling economy can hurt when people/businesses can’t pay what they owe. Back after the dot com bust/Y2K/2001 economy tank, people were not able to pay my husband (owns a tech company) because their businesses were drying up. Husband ended up not getting paid over 100k for work he completed. Other businesses he worked for were going bankrupt or had no cash flow and couldn’t pay. Since we had little kids and a mortgage at the time, not a lot of savings and the market was down (we were 100% equities), it was not fun. We are now usually at 75/25 equities/fixed income.
Good points.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:28 pm

And thar she bounces!

Another in a long line of quick bounces. Bouncing back quickly is obviously the new normal. It will happen every time from now on!

At least now I know how to bet invest. The truck is now idling in reverse gear in anticipation of the next drop!

2015
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2015 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:00 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:28 pm
And thar she bounces!

Another in a long line of quick bounces. Bouncing back quickly is obviously the new normal. It will happen every time from now on!

At least now I know how to bet invest. The truck is now idling in reverse gear in anticipation of the next drop!
Yep. She bounced almost 550 points. If you've got the stomach (and perhaps a roll of Tums handy), here's some slop from marketwatch:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-st ... 2018-10-16

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:01 pm

I bought $6K of VTI on leverage yesterday (CC offer). Do I win the unboglehead award?

remomnyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by remomnyc » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:04 pm

Glad I TLH'd Monday. There have been few opportunities in this galloping market.

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onthecusp
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by onthecusp » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:38 pm

onthecusp wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:02 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:46 pm
onthecusp wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:06 pm
Did anyone see where my car went?

It was parked on top of the rest of my retirement funds that are still there.
You shoulda bought one with more safety features.
Yeah, maybe 60/40 crash protection! LOL
Happy days are here again! I found the car, turns out it just rolled away staying in a straight course.
Well, it did wind up in a bad area of town and stripped down pretty bad. Gonna take more than a little bounce to fix it up.

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:26 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:12 am
ginmqi wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:18 pm
I'm a relatively young investor here in the beginning years of my retirement portfolio accumulation phase. Been with Vanguard for about 5 years now since I started my career.

Currently in 100% equities. And I am EAGERLY awaiting a huge bear market...because it simply means stocks are at a discount. And I fully subscribe to the mantra of buy low, sell high...which no one seems to follow in reality.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating for any job loss or losing families/households, that is horrible. But currently hoping for another bear market as the continuing bull market in the past few years really has me bummed due to the higher stock prices. It's funny because I am probably 1 of only a handful of people that actually gets depressed when I see the market keep going up and up....but I know eventually it will come down which means discounts for shares! :sharebeer
Just curious what makes you think YOU won't get fired in a extended bear market? Overconfidence in folks job security is a huge problem even on this site. I'm a doc married to a doc and can't say 100% my wife couldn't get fired or be asked to reduce her salary if the market tanked for awhile and profits decreased for her employer. I work for myself so know I can't get fired. So not sure how others are so confident they have such a rock stable occupation/ career.

Good luck.
Hey there and I do have to agree with you in that I should not be so overconfident in my own job security. After all, nothing in this life is 100% guaranteed.

As a physician myself also... I am likely MORE confident than the average person BUT my original post you quoted is also a bit of tongue-in-cheek. While I am only recently out of residency and am currently in a fairly in-demand specialty, I do also need to temper my expectations and confidence.

I am currently working as a locum for Kaiser out in the 50th state of the union....and they are practically begging me to stay on as permanent due to severe shortage in physicians. I get daily emails from many states trying to recruit for my specialty and I always joke with my wife that my issue is deciding where to go next after our current gig is over in 06/2019. And contrasting this with others who have a very difficult time finding A job....I could only say that in very close circles or forums like these...lest I get crucified socially for having ultra 1st world problems.

But indeed thank you for the humbling response and I do need to be more cautious regarding my own job security, even as a physician. And this is another reason why having a very good cushion for emergency fund is vital. I myself have a 6mo (if I live in Hawaii/or another HCOL city) to 12mo (mainland, lower COL) emergency fund set aside which does help ease the mind.

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David Jay
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by David Jay » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm

Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm

David Jay wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm

MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm
David Jay wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm
David Jay wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm

ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm
David Jay wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm
David Jay wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Anybody notice that this thread now has over 1.5 million views? Crazy...
Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
SO the thread was started on 08/8/2011, when the OP posted about a 500pt drop.

AFAIK, there haven't been any actual bear markets since 2011...right?

SO basically it's ALL market noise.

Wow....so it will be VERY interesting to see how people will react when an ACTUAL bear market comes to fruition.... :shock:

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:10 pm

ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm

Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
SO the thread was started on 08/8/2011, when the OP posted about a 500pt drop.

AFAIK, there haven't been any actual bear markets since 2011...right?

SO basically it's ALL market noise.

Wow....so it will be VERY interesting to see how people will react when an ACTUAL bear market comes to fruition.... :shock:
Since the start of this thread on August 8, 2012 the total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 168.9%, and $10,000 invested has turned into $26,895.

Quite good for a freefall.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:28 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:10 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm


Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
SO the thread was started on 08/8/2011, when the OP posted about a 500pt drop.

AFAIK, there haven't been any actual bear markets since 2011...right?

SO basically it's ALL market noise.

Wow....so it will be VERY interesting to see how people will react when an ACTUAL bear market comes to fruition.... :shock:
Since the start of this thread on August 8, 2012 the total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 168.9%, and $10,000 invested has turned into $26,895.

Quite good for a freefall.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:33 pm

Dang that's a good quote and from the legendary Peter Lynch nonetheless. 8-)

Mr.BB
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:28 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:10 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm


No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
SO the thread was started on 08/8/2011, when the OP posted about a 500pt drop.

AFAIK, there haven't been any actual bear markets since 2011...right?

SO basically it's ALL market noise.

Wow....so it will be VERY interesting to see how people will react when an ACTUAL bear market comes to fruition.... :shock:
Since the start of this thread on August 8, 2012 the total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 168.9%, and $10,000 invested has turned into $26,895.

Quite good for a freefall.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
+1
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:22 pm

ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:00 pm
ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:04 pm
MJW wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:00 pm

Mostly two or three of the same people clicking the refresh icon. :P
Just wait until there is an actual freefall 8-)
No kidding....
There are 7370 posts in the thread, many sarcastic digs at the "freefall" claim.
SO the thread was started on 08/8/2011, when the OP posted about a 500pt drop.

AFAIK, there haven't been any actual bear markets since 2011...right?

SO basically it's ALL market noise.

Wow....so it will be VERY interesting to see how people will react when an ACTUAL bear market comes to fruition.... :shock:
I believe 2015 just barely made the cut with a 20% drop.

staythecourse
Posts: 6130
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:40 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:09 pm

ginmqi wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:26 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:12 am
ginmqi wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:18 pm
I'm a relatively young investor here in the beginning years of my retirement portfolio accumulation phase. Been with Vanguard for about 5 years now since I started my career.

Currently in 100% equities. And I am EAGERLY awaiting a huge bear market...because it simply means stocks are at a discount. And I fully subscribe to the mantra of buy low, sell high...which no one seems to follow in reality.

Disclaimer: I am not advocating for any job loss or losing families/households, that is horrible. But currently hoping for another bear market as the continuing bull market in the past few years really has me bummed due to the higher stock prices. It's funny because I am probably 1 of only a handful of people that actually gets depressed when I see the market keep going up and up....but I know eventually it will come down which means discounts for shares! :sharebeer
Just curious what makes you think YOU won't get fired in a extended bear market? Overconfidence in folks job security is a huge problem even on this site. I'm a doc married to a doc and can't say 100% my wife couldn't get fired or be asked to reduce her salary if the market tanked for awhile and profits decreased for her employer. I work for myself so know I can't get fired. So not sure how others are so confident they have such a rock stable occupation/ career.

Good luck.
Hey there and I do have to agree with you in that I should not be so overconfident in my own job security. After all, nothing in this life is 100% guaranteed.

As a physician myself also... I am likely MORE confident than the average person BUT my original post you quoted is also a bit of tongue-in-cheek. While I am only recently out of residency and am currently in a fairly in-demand specialty, I do also need to temper my expectations and confidence.

I am currently working as a locum for Kaiser out in the 50th state of the union....and they are practically begging me to stay on as permanent due to severe shortage in physicians. I get daily emails from many states trying to recruit for my specialty and I always joke with my wife that my issue is deciding where to go next after our current gig is over in 06/2019. And contrasting this with others who have a very difficult time finding A job....I could only say that in very close circles or forums like these...lest I get crucified socially for having ultra 1st world problems.

But indeed thank you for the humbling response and I do need to be more cautious regarding my own job security, even as a physician. And this is another reason why having a very good cushion for emergency fund is vital. I myself have a 6mo (if I live in Hawaii/or another HCOL city) to 12mo (mainland, lower COL) emergency fund set aside which does help ease the mind.
Agreed. If there is a time physicians get the boot then everybody else must have already been fired if the economy is that bad. More then likely I see a time where the salaries will start to decrease in the employment model. Why shouldn't they. The population seems to have less and less attractive insurances and overall reimbursements are stagnant and best and worst decreasing in real numbers. Play this out in a situation the physician salaries are the highest labor income on the liability side of the hospital's ledger and no real options for many docs to just go across the street (restrictive covenants enforceable in many states) I don't see a good situation brewing going forward.

I do agree working in areas that have physician needs are likely to protect you as the ONLY way for those hospitals to survive is to get as many physicians to increase the patient encounters.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

staythecourse
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:24 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:28 pm
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
That should be stickied somewhere. Thanks for the reminder for all of us.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

kaeltor
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kaeltor » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am

Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am

kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:43 am

kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
If you don't know if it's wise, it probably isn't.

kaeltor
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kaeltor » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:52 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.

What is IPS?

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:53 am

Image
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:00 am

kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:52 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.

What is IPS?
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:41 am

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:43 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
If you don't know if it's wise, it probably isn't.
Exactly. No one on this board can predict the market or tell you the "right time" to buy/sell. Long-term, today's and tomorrow's "dips" won't even be the faintest of memories in any of our minds. Two days ago people celebrated not a gain but a 2% recovery, the next day the market dipped again, and today another dip. There will be a lot more dips and a lot more gains. In short, if you need this money short-term, then it's probably not wise to invest it. Long-term, there's no better time to invest than now.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:06 pm

oldzey wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:51 am
Image
If anyone needs the force to ‘stay the course’ with these non-events, they most certainly have the wrong AA for their risk tolerance.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:17 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.
With an attitude like that, you are going to take all the fun out of this thread :D

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:48 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.
My IPS is boring. On the other hand, my crystal ball says that the near future will be dark and full of terrors.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:09 pm

H-Town wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:48 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.
My IPS is boring. On the other hand, my crystal ball says that the near future will be dark and full of terrors.
My IPS is boring, too. But I always have an itch to do something stupid. So I added this to the top: Don’t just do something, Stand there! That kept me from putting my EF into the market last week and will keep me from doing something else this week.

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Flymore
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Flymore » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:15 pm

I'm doing what I do best and have the most experience with, nothing. :D

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:29 pm

H-Town wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:48 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:40 am
Another big drop incoming it seems!

I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise...
Do what your IPS tells you to do.
My IPS is boring. On the other hand, my crystal ball says that the near future will be dark and full of terrors.
The present is sunny, clear blue sky, and 57 degrees.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:53 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink:
Yep, the markets have not exactly been climbing. My portfolio hit a high back in January and has never gotten back.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:56 am

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink:
Yep, the markets have not exactly been climbing. My portfolio hit a high back in January and has never gotten back.
Indeed. Apparently they need something else to worry about so they can resume their climb.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:04 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:56 am
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink:
Yep, the markets have not exactly been climbing. My portfolio hit a high back in January and has never gotten back.
Indeed. Apparently they need something else to worry about so they can resume their climb.
A couple nights ago, Nightly Business Report discussed that many stocks in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory. I forget the percentages. But underneath the surface, we are seeing a correction or perhaps a stealth bear market. In other words, in a sense the averages are not average. This is healthy, the last thing we want to see is the market going straight up. We need corrections and we need periods where the market just moves sideways for a while. For one thing, we need the "E" to catch up with the "P". But it is concerning that less than 30% of stocks are keeping the markets up as high as they are.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:09 am

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:04 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:56 am
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink:
Yep, the markets have not exactly been climbing. My portfolio hit a high back in January and has never gotten back.
Indeed. Apparently they need something else to worry about so they can resume their climb.
A couple nights ago, Nightly Business Report discussed that many stocks in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory. I forget the percentages. But underneath the surface, we are seeing a correction or perhaps a stealth bear market. In other words, in a sense the averages are not average. This is healthy, the last thing we want to see is the market going straight up. We need corrections and we need periods where the market just moves sideways for a while. For one thing, we need the "E" to catch up with the "P". But it is concerning that less than 30% of stocks are keeping the markets up as high as they are.
I agree that this is a healthy thing. In addition to possibly helping with P/Es, it also helps to discourage investors who don't have the intestinal fortitude to maintain their current stock position from doing so. What I don't 'buy' in all of this is that higher bond yields are the primary (or secondary) cause, simply because bond yields have not suddenly increased substantially. The 10 year is just 3.19% right now.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:11 am

Nedsaid, yes I believe a poster has noted this before. He was told it was always this way, so not too worry.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253655

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=260753

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=255695
Last edited by letsgobobby on Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:11 am
Nedsaid, yes I believe a poster has noted this before. He was told it was always this way, so not too worry.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=260753

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=255695
A "shrinking" US Stock Market is yet another reason to diversify Internationally. My understanding is that the number of publicly traded companies have ebbed and flowed over the decades. Certainly, the 1990's saw an explosion of Initial Public Offerings. That trend has reversed.

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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