U.S. stocks in freefall

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jabberwockOG
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jabberwockOG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:33 pm

I'd loved a 30-40% drop, or even 10% drop, when I was still in accumulation phase.

These days in retirement and no longer accumulating we keep 4-5 years of yearly expenses in CDs/Short term bond/Savings bucket so likely will never have to touch equities in a down market.

I did buy a few shares of my favorite stock this morning as it was down $10 a share. Never attempting to market time but buying the dips when I have extra cash has worked extremely well over the years.

And in terms of explaining this weeks market action - nobody has a clue what is going to happen. It is all pure, simple BS.

Remember a simple truth - Anyone with the skill set to actually reliably know what will happen to the market will tell no one and quietly make themselves a billionaire. The BS artists that actually have no chance of reliable predicting market behavior are happy to earn a moderate living by spouting their financial theories on TV and in media articles and news stories.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by goodenyou » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:38 pm

In competitive golf, every shot makes someone happy. In the stock market, every day makes someone happy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:48 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:54 pm
oldzey wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:14 pm
walletless wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:23 pm
Time for bears to come out of their hiding!
You rang? :P

Image
He is kinda cute, but does he have to stick around?
Looks like he decided to stick around and show off his cuteness.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:07 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:38 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 pm
yousha wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:28 pm
Nothing to be matter fact about. We are in a nasty free fall. 10-15% is not out of the question. Hopefully I am mistaken.
I hope you're not mistaken. I'm still accumulating and would love to buy more at cheaper prices instead of these heady valuations.
Be careful what you wish for.
Why? Harvest some losses, pay less taxes, accumulate more shares, historically result in a better/earlier retirement. 10-15% shouldn’t kill anyone’s well planned retirement either.
If the hoped-for 10-15% stock market drop coincides with layoff, job loss, serious illness, disabling injury, etc. then an investor could be in deep trouble, whether the investor has planned well or not.

No one is immune to these possible problems.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jclear » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:05 pm

Yesterdaysnews wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:36 am
Yeah, something about this drop feels a little different. :confused
Let's see what Ciovacco says today. Either the lines will say we're in a confused period, or they'll say we're still looking beautiful for another decade of bull running. 8-)

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:31 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 pm
yousha wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:28 pm
Nothing to be matter fact about. We are in a nasty free fall. 10-15% is not out of the question. Hopefully I am mistaken.
I hope you're not mistaken. I'm still accumulating and would love to buy more at cheaper prices instead of these heady valuations.
Be careful what you wish for.
Why?
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:52 pm

lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:58 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:50 pm
Pelerus wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:44 pm
I would say one reason is because of basic conditional probability - any time there is a 10-15% drop, a 40-50% drop becomes more likely, simply because every 40-50% drop starts with a 10-15% drop.
Uh, what? You could argue on momentum grounds that further drop is more likely, but what you state makes no sense. Every streak of coin flips that yields five heads in a row starts with four heads in a row. That doesn't mean that getting four heads makes it more probable for a fifth.
The probability of a 10-15% decline and a 40-50% decline on any given day are two different probabilities. The coin flip/gambler's fallacy is not a good comparison.
That doesn't matter. What the OP said was that a deeper decline is more probable because the first part (the 10-15% decline) had happened. On a probability basis that's false. Now, if the momentum theories are correct then recent trends of the market might presage future trends, but I addressed that previously.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:00 pm

pete1983 wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:14 pm
Quick question about what is going on in the stock market.
More people wanted to sell at the old price than buy at the old price.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Pelerus » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:17 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:50 pm
Pelerus wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:44 pm
I would say one reason is because of basic conditional probability - any time there is a 10-15% drop, a 40-50% drop becomes more likely, simply because every 40-50% drop starts with a 10-15% drop.
Uh, what? You could argue on momentum grounds that further drop is more likely, but what you state makes no sense. Every streak of coin flips that yields five heads in a row starts with four heads in a row. That doesn't mean that getting four heads makes it more probable for a fifth.
Momentum is not the argument. You are confusing conditional and absolute probability. Lots of people do.

In your example, what is the probability of flipping five heads in a row, after already flipping four heads in a row? 50% of course - which is much higher than the probability of flipping five heads in a row before any flips are made (3.125%).

That is exactly what is being said here.

What is the probability of the market declining 40-50%, after already declining 10-15%? Difficult to say, but certainly higher than the probability of it declining 40-50% without having yet declined at all. The reason, just as in the coin flip example, is that we’ve already eliminated the sequences of outcomes in which the first steps in the sequence could not possibly result in the final outcome we’re looking for.

If someone cares to do so, this could easily be confirmed historically by finding A) the set of trading days in which the S&P 500 was trading down 40% or more from a previous all time high, B) the set of trading days in which the S&P was trading down 10% or more from a previous all time high, C) the total set of all trading days - and noting that there is a higher proportion of A in B than A in C. That is to say, the probability of A given B is higher than the probability of A given C.

And of course, this all just gets back to, be careful what you wish for!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm

Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:24 pm

walletless wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:23 pm
Time for bears to come out of their hiding!
If the bear comes out in the winter, would it be the polar variety?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am

AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm
Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:43 am

I'd love to see a 20-30% drop.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:08 am

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:31 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 pm
yousha wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:28 pm
Nothing to be matter fact about. We are in a nasty free fall. 10-15% is not out of the question. Hopefully I am mistaken.
I hope you're not mistaken. I'm still accumulating and would love to buy more at cheaper prices instead of these heady valuations.
Be careful what you wish for.
Why?
If the desired 10-15% stock market drop coincides with layoff, loss of job, serious illness or disabling injury, then you could be in an awful fix having to sell off investments at a reduced price in order to have money to live on.

No one is immune from such events.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:10 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:08 am
watchnerd wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:31 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 pm
yousha wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:28 pm
Nothing to be matter fact about. We are in a nasty free fall. 10-15% is not out of the question. Hopefully I am mistaken.
I hope you're not mistaken. I'm still accumulating and would love to buy more at cheaper prices instead of these heady valuations.
Be careful what you wish for.
Why?
If the desired 10-15% stock market drop coincides with layoff, loss of job, serious illness or disabling injury, then you could be in an awful fix having to sell off investments to live on.

No one is immune from such events.
Oh, I have 8.5 years of living expenses, paid off house, no debts, working spouse...I'll take my chances.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:19 am

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:10 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:08 am
watchnerd wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:31 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 pm


I hope you're not mistaken. I'm still accumulating and would love to buy more at cheaper prices instead of these heady valuations.
Be careful what you wish for.
Why?
If the desired 10-15% stock market drop coincides with layoff, loss of job, serious illness or disabling injury, then you could be in an awful fix having to sell off investments to live on.

No one is immune from such events.
Oh, I have 8.5 years of living expenses, paid off house, no debts, working spouse...I'll take my chances.
You have 8.5 years of living expenses in cash, not invested in something with a positive real return?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:26 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:19 am
watchnerd wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:10 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:08 am
watchnerd wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:31 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:18 am

Be careful what you wish for.
Why?
If the desired 10-15% stock market drop coincides with layoff, loss of job, serious illness or disabling injury, then you could be in an awful fix having to sell off investments to live on.

No one is immune from such events.
Oh, I have 8.5 years of living expenses, paid off house, no debts, working spouse...I'll take my chances.
You have 8.5 years of living expenses in cash, not invested in something with a positive real return?
1 year in CD, the rest in bonds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm
Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm
Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:32 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm
Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.
Bankruptcy attorney? Payday loans?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:36 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:32 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:23 pm
Ah, how I would wish we get a nice 20%+ drop in the next 3-4 months.
We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.
Bankruptcy attorney? Payday loans?
Repossessions? Alcohol?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:46 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:36 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:32 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:43 am


We will. Rest assured. What is your plan when that happens?
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.
Bankruptcy attorney? Payday loans?
Repossessions? Alcohol?
Pawn shop?
Tax Sheltered: 35% US Stock | 35% ex-US Stock | 30% TTM || Taxable: 35% US Stock | 35% ex-US Stock | 15% TTM | 15% Munis

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:50 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:46 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:36 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:32 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am


I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.
Bankruptcy attorney? Payday loans?
Repossessions? Alcohol?
Pawn shop?
Come to think of it, I wonder whether a fund that invested in these types of businesses might be a good counter-weight to a traditional stock allocation. :?:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:10 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Interesting. Curious to hear more. Ideal situation.
Hedge fund. Trading. When volatility and volume are up, our trading proceeds go up a lot.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:11 pm

Oh man....that's a bummer....I was so hoping that answer was going to be "repo man / bounty hunter"....
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jabberwockOG
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jabberwockOG » Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:45 pm

Agree - I was also hoping for re-po man or neighborhood loan shark myself.

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IcedDog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by IcedDog » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:58 pm

*sigh* We're so boring :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:19 am

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:01 am

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Maybe you should be selling VIX futures as a hedge against low volatility periods that would result in smaller bonuses for you?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:32 am

oldzey wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:48 pm
Looks like he decided to stick around and show off his cuteness.
If he starts dancing “Gangnam Style”, I’m going to cash.
:P
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by PFInterest » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:30 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:19 am
Please stay on-topic.
Are you trying to say the previous 139 pages were on topic and now we are veering?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:12 am

PFInterest wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:30 am
LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:19 am
Please stay on-topic.
Are you trying to say the previous 139 pages were on topic and now we are veering?
I think she means the discussion of occupations.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:14 am

^^^ That's what I meant. If there are any further questions, please PM me.

Update: An off-topic post was removed.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:25 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:01 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 am
I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me.
Maybe you should be selling VIX futures as a hedge against low volatility periods that would result in smaller bonuses for you?
Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think it works like that.

During low volatility times, trading profits are just fine, and PA portfolio returns are fine too.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:46 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think it works like that.

During low volatility times, trading profits are just fine, and PA portfolio returns are fine too.
But during high volatility times, trading profits are great so you’re not currently realizing your average compensation. Profiting from VIX roll during quiet periods in the market could help you get a higher return now and smooth out your earnings. I see what you’re saying about your portfolio, assuming it’s a long equity one in some reasonable part, but it still depends on the size of your currrent portfolio vs your remaining career earnings. If your portfolio is still small, it may not be enough of a hedge vs your job and you could consider selling vol.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:39 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:46 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think it works like that.

During low volatility times, trading profits are just fine, and PA portfolio returns are fine too.
But during high volatility times, trading profits are great so you’re not currently realizing your average compensation. Profiting from VIX roll during quiet periods in the market could help you get a higher return now and smooth out your earnings. I see what you’re saying about your portfolio, assuming it’s a long equity one in some reasonable part, but it still depends on the size of your currrent portfolio vs your remaining career earnings. If your portfolio is still small, it may not be enough of a hedge vs your job and you could consider selling vol.
It's true. However, two things to remember:
- VIX returns are negatively correlated to market returns (so the same thing can be achieved by being extra long market),
- are VIX returns incrementally beneficial to ones portfolio (beyond what a stock + bond portfolio would provide).

Selling vol is not a trivial addition to ones portfolio.

Strategies / asset possibilities available to professional businesses are quite different vs those available to retail investors.

Not to mention that there are regulatory restrictions on buying / selling various asset classes in my industry.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:47 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:46 pm
... so you’re not currently realizing your average compensation.
Aside from the *tactical* argument you are making (try to use a third asset class, VOL, to juice up portfolio), when I look at the past, I definitely have not maximized my overall earnings. So your strategic advice is on point.

Considering everything, I think that having a stock allocation significantly north of 100% when I started out, would have definitely been a winning strategy (regardless of the awesome bull market we have had).

There are various reasons for that (including reasons I would rather not disclose here), including the counter-cyclical nature of the pay.

However, industry has other issues, such as ar$e-wh0le personalities and bonus stealing, which are risks that are very hard to hedge.

I have seen very close friends be faced with the above situations. Dollar amounts involved were far from trivial.
I have observed, on multiple occasions, 7 or 8 figure bonuses being stolen.

As they say in high finance:
- you eat (*) what you kill,

(*) But you have to fight to eat it.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

OnLevel
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by OnLevel » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:53 pm

Looks like the S&P500 is turning positive for the day :happy

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by watchnerd » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:41 pm

OnLevel wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:53 pm
Looks like the S&P500 is turning positive for the day :happy
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hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hdas » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:46 pm

Great day to take the cane out in Small Caps.......testing 200dma. H

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:47 pm

OnLevel wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:53 pm
Looks like the S&P500 is turning positive for the day :happy
Tech took it on the chin today. Not that I'm complaining or anything. :|
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:02 pm

There seems to be an even greater uptick in "Do you think something bad is about to happen?" posts lately.

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TSquare
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TSquare » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:44 am

MJW wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:02 pm
There seems to be an even greater uptick in "Do you think something bad is about to happen?" posts lately.
I'm hearing the "R" word thrown around hither and yon, on various financial newscasts.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:39 am

hdas wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:46 pm
Great day to take the cane out in Small Caps.......testing 200dma. H
Agreed. Took the opportunity to add IJR to my portfolio

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:38 am

TSquare wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:44 am
MJW wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:02 pm
There seems to be an even greater uptick in "Do you think something bad is about to happen?" posts lately.
I'm hearing the "R" word thrown around hither and yon, on various financial newscasts.
With unemployment at record lows and trending downward? Historically speaking, extremely unlikely. But a recession isn't necessary for stocks to drop significantly. Just look at 1987.

Will there be a recession at some point? Of course. Is it likely to be already underway? Not at all (IMHO).

The newscasts just need something to keep you tuned in and the advertisers happy.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:38 am
TSquare wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:44 am
MJW wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:02 pm
There seems to be an even greater uptick in "Do you think something bad is about to happen?" posts lately.
I'm hearing the "R" word thrown around hither and yon, on various financial newscasts.
With unemployment at record lows and trending downward? Historically speaking, extremely unlikely. But a recession isn't necessary for stocks to drop significantly. Just look at 1987.

Will there be a recession at some point? Of course. Is it likely to be already underway? Not at all (IMHO).

The newscasts just need something to keep you tuned in and the advertisers happy.
+1 Nailed it.

kaeltor
Posts: 101
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kaeltor » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:08 pm

Market can't catch a break!

5 days downward now. (As of this time at least)

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:54 pm

kaeltor wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:08 pm
Market can't catch a break!

5 days downward now. (As of this time at least)
I'm just getting started...

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HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:12 pm

TSM is only down 3% from historical highs. Relax everybody.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:27 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:12 pm
TSM is only down 3% from historical highs. Relax everybody.
Indeed. I'm still up almost 10% for the year. You can bet that I would take that every year from here on out. A little downward movement is healthy because it helps to reduce market inflows that would surely come if the market went straight up.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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