U.S. stocks in freefall

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princetontiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by princetontiger » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:21 pm

Christine600 wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:01 pm
It is interesting to see how freaked out people can get just from the interest rate of the 10y hitting the 3% level.

When I bought my first home I never dreamt of an interest rate that low.
Well said. My parents had an 18% mortgage in 1982.

sketchy9
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sketchy9 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:23 pm

Hello darkness my old friend...I wonder if today is a harbinger of sustained losses or more of the same volatility that we've been dealing with this whole year? My IRR (prior to today) was essentially zero for the year on a 70/30 allocation, but I feel like we've had several days of heavy losses (combined with several of heavy gains). It makes the market interesting to read about, at least.

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm

Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:54 pm

Faisal wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm
Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.
Probably for today, it is because 10-year Treasuries now yield above 3%.

Do they now yield above 3% because of turmoil or fundamentals? Yes.
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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:08 pm

Faisal wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm
Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.
I have no idea.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:26 pm

The buy on the dips mentality is so firmly rooted, that I am sure this will be reversed soon.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:35 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:04 pm
It is still early, but if I had my druthers, I think I would have preferred to be out of this market for THIS ONE DAY.

And undoubtedly more to come. If only I knew which ones they were ...
Its the days with all the red numbers....

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:30 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:26 pm
The buy on the dips mentality is so firmly rooted, that I am sure this will be reversed soon.
What goes down must go up.

Seems to happen more quickly these days than in the past. Will that continue to be the case? I have no idea.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:36 pm

Faisal wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm
Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.
The speculation component of a stock price (in addition to those pesky aspects like earnings and dividends) is strong over a month or two so you're guess is literally as good as the guys on CNBC. Over 30 years, speculation is nearly nil in the makeup of the market.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Moochy » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:55 pm

Faisal wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm
Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.
It's not the ten year hitting the "3%" mark, it's the flattening of the yield curve and the spread between ten and thirty year bonds. That is signalling the economy is slowing down and we probably have hit peak earnings. The market is a forward looking mechanism.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Alan S. » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:58 pm

Funny, a week ago Wall St was all stressed out about the flattening yield curve and it's possible indicator of a recession.

The yield curve is now steeper after today's activity, more so than in recent weeks. So Wall St should now be happy. :confused Or not.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:12 pm

Moochy wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:55 pm
. . . It's not the ten year hitting the "3%" mark, it's the flattening of the yield curve and the spread between ten and thirty year bonds. That is signalling the economy is slowing down and we probably have hit peak earnings. The market is a forward looking mechanism . . .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Pelerus » Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:55 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:26 pm
The buy on the dips mentality is so firmly rooted, that I am sure this will be reversed soon.
That is the implicit short volatility trade. It will prevail until it doesn’t. The explicit short volatility trade already blew up in February. Implicit may be next. When and if that happens, “buy the dip” becomes “sell the rip.”
Alan S. wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:58 pm
Funny, a week ago Wall St was all stressed out about the flattening yield curve and it's possible indicator of a recession.

The yield curve is now steeper after today's activity, more so than in recent weeks. So Wall St should now be happy. :confused Or not.
“All news is bad news” is the other side of the coin to the “all news is good news” mentality that dominated last year, and not inherently any more or less rational. As a sentiment indicator, it has its own value.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:51 am

Sorry, my bad. As the penultimate chapter of my pursuit of a brokerage transfer bonus, I threw a cash lump sum into two different total stock market ETFs yesterday. My TSP contribution should have hit yesterday, too. Double whammy. I promise to sit tight for a few days.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Slothmeister » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:40 am

With the stock market doing jumping jacks, the housing market once again appears to be getting hot for sellers and more difficult for buyers.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:44 am

Slothmeister wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:40 am
With the stock market doing jumping jacks, the housing market once again appears to be getting hot for sellers and more difficult for buyers.
Location matters but overall, agree.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:48 am

Welcome to the forum :) .
Moochy wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:55 pm
Faisal wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:40 pm
Been busy with real life for the past month so really haven't visited or paid attention to the market. Seems that even after the "correction" the market has been bouncing around the 23k-24k mark.

Is this because of global geo-politicla turmoil or is it because of market fundamentals? Any opinion is welcome. Just trying to gauge what all the fuss is about.
It's not the ten year hitting the "3%" mark, it's the flattening of the yield curve and the spread between ten and thirty year bonds. That is signalling the economy is slowing down and we probably have hit peak earnings. The market is a forward looking mechanism.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:30 am

Thank you all for your comments. They have been helpful.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Glockenspiel » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:45 am

princetontiger wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:21 pm
Christine600 wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:01 pm
It is interesting to see how freaked out people can get just from the interest rate of the 10y hitting the 3% level.

When I bought my first home I never dreamt of an interest rate that low.
Well said. My parents had an 18% mortgage in 1982.
I refinanced my mortgage to a 2.50% 15-year loan in November 2012, and I doubt I'll ever see a rate that low again.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lazydavid » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:32 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:45 am
I refinanced my mortgage to a 2.50% 15-year loan in November 2012, and I doubt I'll ever see a rate that low again.
Refinanced to the same rate/term in July of 2016, so you could have seen it at least one more time... :P They're up to 4% now, so I agree with you that they're not coming back anytime soon.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:48 pm

Now I feel like I got ripped off on my 2.95% 15-year term in 2012.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:57 pm

princetontiger wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:21 pm
Christine600 wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:01 pm
It is interesting to see how freaked out people can get just from the interest rate of the 10y hitting the 3% level.

When I bought my first home I never dreamt of an interest rate that low.
Well said. My parents had an 18% mortgage in 1982.
When we bought a home at that time we were thrilled :D :D to be able to assume a mortgage with an 8.75% interest rate.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:06 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:45 am
princetontiger wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:21 pm
Christine600 wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:01 pm
It is interesting to see how freaked out people can get just from the interest rate of the 10y hitting the 3% level.

When I bought my first home I never dreamt of an interest rate that low.
Well said. My parents had an 18% mortgage in 1982.
I refinanced my mortgage to a 2.50% 15-year loan in November 2012, and I doubt I'll ever see a rate that low again.
We too got a 2.5% 15 year mortgage in June, 2013. And I too doubt that we'll personally live to see rates that low again, but we might.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:40 am

PS you just don't want to be out of this thread for ONE DAY

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:41 am

Slothmeister wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:40 am
With the stock market doing jumping jacks, the housing market once again appears to be getting hot for sellers and more difficult for buyers.
Ah, so that's why we're seeing article titles like this:

Image
Dogen, who just last month wrote about how “real estate will always be more desirable than stocks,” flipped the script this week and listed several ways, in addition to the lure of better profits, that stocks are the better choice.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:32 pm

The Running of the Bulls

Back from my LUng Distance workout, just to find out that yes, they are running . . . see I told you so, you just don't want to be out of this market for ONE day!

Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo » Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:22 pm

Is this now a running commentary?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by perl » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm

cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm

perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:55 am

cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
I actually like it. It’s a bit more enthusiastic than ‘stay the course.’ The words “stay the course” are steadying and serious and imply mastering a controlled unemotional state while staying focused on the mapped route and the destination. Although we all agree with the sentiment, sometimes you have to add a little spice to things to make them more interesting. Cfs is saying the same thing with a bit more generosity of emotion. Included in the words of encouragement are a ‘joie de vivre’ and the same clear message to not touch your money. It actually makes Bogleheads less repetitive!
:sharebeer

Also, I just want to remind everyone that I’m pretty sure the main point of this thread, aside from collective hand holding during market volatility (very important), is to remind ourselves and each other to stay the course and that we really “don’t want to be out of this market for even just ONE day!”

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dasnyc » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am

cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:30 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:55 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
I actually like it. It’s a bit more enthusiastic than ‘stay the course.’ The words “stay the course” are steadying and serious and imply mastering a controlled unemotional state while staying focused on the mapped route and the destination. Although we all agree with the sentiment, sometimes you have to add a little spice to things to make them more interesting. Cfs is saying the same thing with a bit more generosity of emotion. Included in the words of encouragement are a ‘joie de vivre’ and the same clear message to not touch your money. It actually makes Bogleheads less repetitive!
:sharebeer

Also, I just want to remind everyone that I’m pretty sure the main point of this thread, aside from collective hand holding during market volatility (very important), is to remind ourselves and each other to stay the course and that we really “don’t want to be out of this market for even just ONE day!”
Thank you, y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:31 am

Dasnyc wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...
Thank you, y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

david1082b
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:52 am

Dasnyc wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...
Many of the other posts on here are pretty repetitive - on days when stocks are up people ironically post "what freefall?" When stocks are down a tiny amount people go "OMG what a terrible freefall, however will I sleep tonight?" On a Really Bad Day there will be "nice, i've been waiting for this type of day for ages! Time to get some bargains with the cash I've piled up."

The original context of the thread has been lost to history. 2011 was a different time. The mockery that is often poured on the opening poster is not particularly great imo and adds to the repetitive circus atmosphere.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MichaelRpdx » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:03 am

Is the freefall here yet?
Part of my retirement planning was a big drop at some point. This wimpy recent volatility doesn't seem like a big deal. I'd be happy to be wrong.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:41 am

I find cfs's repetitive posts to be endearing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:20 am

rudeboy wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:41 am
I find cfs's repetitive posts to be endearing.
Thanks for the note.

break
break

I just came back from my daily LUng Distance workout, today taking an extremely hilly course carrying my Camino-Ready-Backpack (I carry my Camino-Ready-Backpack on every single workout), long live the really important things in my Active Retirement Life!

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:18 pm

Let's avoid repetition and stay focused.

Please stay on-topic, which is to provide comments relevant to current market activity.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sergeant » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:45 pm

david1082b wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:52 am
Dasnyc wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...
Many of the other posts on here are pretty repetitive - on days when stocks are up people ironically post "what freefall?" When stocks are down a tiny amount people go "OMG what a terrible freefall, however will I sleep tonight?" On a Really Bad Day there will be "nice, i've been waiting for this type of day for ages! Time to get some bargains with the cash I've piled up."

The original context of the thread has been lost to history. 2011 was a different time. The mockery that is often poured on the opening poster is not particularly great imo and adds to the repetitive circus atmosphere.
The true meaning of this post will return when a real correction happens. It's coming, I don't know when but it will happen. Then we will see posts from people that are frightened and confused. It's coming...
Lincoln 3 EOW!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:56 pm

sergeant wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:45 pm
david1082b wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:52 am
Dasnyc wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm
perl wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:01 pm
cfs, can you please stop posting the same thing over and over?
Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...
Many of the other posts on here are pretty repetitive - on days when stocks are up people ironically post "what freefall?" When stocks are down a tiny amount people go "OMG what a terrible freefall, however will I sleep tonight?" On a Really Bad Day there will be "nice, i've been waiting for this type of day for ages! Time to get some bargains with the cash I've piled up."

The original context of the thread has been lost to history. 2011 was a different time. The mockery that is often poured on the opening poster is not particularly great imo and adds to the repetitive circus atmosphere.
The true meaning of this post will return when a real correction happens. It's coming, I don't know when but it will happen. Then we will see posts from people that are frightened and confused. It's coming...
How panicky will investors be after what happened after 20008? I think, very little. Unpleasant yes; sell? No.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:13 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:56 pm
sergeant wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:45 pm
david1082b wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:52 am
Dasnyc wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:28 am
cfs wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:31 pm

Thank you for the note, y gracias por leer / cfs
The repetitive posting is annoying to me as well...
Many of the other posts on here are pretty repetitive - on days when stocks are up people ironically post "what freefall?" When stocks are down a tiny amount people go "OMG what a terrible freefall, however will I sleep tonight?" On a Really Bad Day there will be "nice, i've been waiting for this type of day for ages! Time to get some bargains with the cash I've piled up."

The original context of the thread has been lost to history. 2011 was a different time. The mockery that is often poured on the opening poster is not particularly great imo and adds to the repetitive circus atmosphere.
The true meaning of this post will return when a real correction happens. It's coming, I don't know when but it will happen. Then we will see posts from people that are frightened and confused. It's coming...
How panicky will investors be after what happened after 20008? I think, very little. Unpleasant yes; sell? No.
Same argument could have been made during 2008 after 2001. Or 2001 after 1987.

We must not forget there are years worth of 'new investors' since the financial crisis that have never experienced a true crash theoretically. History has a tendency to repeat itself imo

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:55 pm

There's been one heckuva a lot of volatility recently compared to the smooth upward flow of the last two years. The S&P 500 index closed yesterday at about the same level as it did on Dec 15, 2017, so all those ups and downs in the last four and a half months have been like running in place: lots of energy expended with no real progress.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:45 pm

[edit] Double posted. :?
Last edited by pokebowl on Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:45 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:56 pm

How panicky will investors be after what happened after 20008? I think, very little. Unpleasant yes; sell? No.
John Titor is that you?

On a serious note, while I do not see this community panicking as much, some of the other communities I frequent may not fair so well. We've been in a fairly consistent bull market since '08. You could say those that have entered the game since that time a decade ago, have only known stock volatility as relatively mundane, or worth the risk to over-leverage on. Such is the case with every crash, time heals all wounds and lessons will be learned again and again. Even during the February event, there were more panic postings here than I initially thought I would see over such a minor correction.
Last edited by pokebowl on Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Clever_Username
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Clever_Username » Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:49 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:13 pm
We must not forget there are years worth of 'new investors' since the financial crisis that have never experienced a true crash theoretically. History has a tendency to repeat itself imo

:beer
As one of those new investors (I had low four figures invested in 2008 and I'm not sure I knew how to even check the balances or change anything), I find every comment in this thread informative to some degree.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kappy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:12 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:55 pm
so all those ups and downs in the last four and a half months have been like running in place: lots of energy expended with no real progress.
It let me TLH so there was a small amount of progress for me.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:33 pm

pokebowl wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:45 pm
Even during the February event, there were more panic postings here than I initially thought I would see over such a minor correction.
Those panic postings surprised me, too. Even more surprising was the number of posts from folks who were dismayed that Total Bond had lost value.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:47 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:33 pm
pokebowl wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:45 pm
Even during the February event, there were more panic postings here than I initially thought I would see over such a minor correction.
Those panic postings surprised me, too. Even more surprising was the number of posts from folks who were dismayed that Total Bond had lost value.
It goes to show how much recency bias plays into our perceptions. Even John Bogle was proclaiming that he'd never seen anything like it, which was preposterous.

I don't see why people think that bonds are 'safe' from drawdowns and volatility; it's probably another case of recency bias. From 1977 to 1981, intermediate term Treasuries had a real drawdown of -32.5%.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:02 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:47 pm

I don't see why people think that bonds are 'safe' from drawdowns and volatility; it's probably another case of recency bias. From 1977 to 1981, intermediate term Treasuries had a real drawdown of -32.5%.
Do you mean a real decline of 32.5%?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:03 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:02 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:47 pm

I don't see why people think that bonds are 'safe' from drawdowns and volatility; it's probably another case of recency bias. From 1977 to 1981, intermediate term Treasuries had a real drawdown of -32.5%.
Do you mean a real decline of 32.5%?
Yes. By real drawdown, I mean peak to trough decline in real dollars.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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