U.S. stocks in freefall

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just frank
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by just frank » Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:45 pm

mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:36 pm
It just seems really unlikely this bull is going to run even a couple more years.
Let's see what logic dictates in a few weeks....

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Derby » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:07 pm

CoAndy wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am
Well, TimeLord posted a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone else was tired of the market going up. Wonder what his thoughts are right about now?
He's going to put off retiring for one more year. :mrgreen:
Carpe Diem.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:14 pm

Standing by for Mister Time Lord's post on "Is anyone else tired of this market going down?" . . . Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:20 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:56 pm
For all the folk who decided to buy today, haven't you guys read rule #5? :oops:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... the_market
Whatever happened to ‘buy low’ sell high 15 years from niw.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:36 pm

aqan wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:20 pm
BogleMelon wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:56 pm
For all the folk who decided to buy today, haven't you guys read rule #5? :oops:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... the_market
Whatever happened to ‘buy low’ sell high 15 years from niw.
Not market timing! I'm pretty sure all that buying was simply to rebalance! :D

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:38 pm

Looks like the financial milestones thread is going to quiet for a bit....

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Leif
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:40 pm

triceratop wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:42 pm
Full disclosure: my limit order for VTI executed at $131.55 today. :D
Good shot Tri, but let's see what happens tomorrow.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm

mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:36 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
Bear markets often coincide with recessions, but not always. This feels like the start of a bear to me as well....we will know for sure in a few months perhaps, until then I’m getting exceptionally good at TLH’ing.

I also wonder where Wall Street has the dead bodies buried this time.... consumer debt? Student debt? Auto debt? Too much borrowing to invest, and as interest rates rise the air comes out of the tires?

It just seems really unlikely this bull is going to run even a couple more years.
Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.

I guess the important thing is whether one is losing sleep at night. I am glad that I can still just say 'huh, that's interesting' when I look at my balance.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:05 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:43 pm
bgf wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:29 pm
Accrual wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:27 pm
grettman wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:22 pm
While a 10% drop in the markets is called a correction....

It isn't a real correction until the CASH IS KING and BUY GOLD crowd start coming out of the woodwork! I think we are here folks.

It will also be a noteworthy period when the "What are you up YTD?" and "FIRE" crowd starts to chatter with negativity in a big way (or go silent).
Let us not forget the 100/0 allocation folks.
that's me!
Me too and hoping this trend continues.
94/6. Feel better now than I did last year. Last year was like (bad economic news) = (market goes up anyways). This is how the market is supposed to work. Also these percentages just don’t seem like that big a deal to me. Oh no, am I back to January prices? Good thing I buy every two weeks regardless of what the market is doing. Bought before 2008, bought through the recession, bought through the bull market no one thought was a bull market until years into it, and still buying this year up or down.

It’s Buffet who says “Invest, we must”, right?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TSquare » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:46 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:07 pm
TSquare wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:37 pm
TSquare wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks!
I warned you all back in February!
If I had a dollar for every time I've been warned by some lurker about impending doom, I'd be retired now.
I stand by my prognostication!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by whodidntante » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:09 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
It looks like the 10 month SMA is indicating sell for just about everything, except commodities.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dwickenh » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:10 pm

CoAndy wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am
Well, TimeLord posted a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone else was tired of the market going up. Wonder what his thoughts are right about now?
Yes! The Curse Of Timelord!!!! :twisted:
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:33 pm

dwickenh wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:10 pm
CoAndy wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am
Well, TimeLord posted a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone else was tired of the market going up. Wonder what his thoughts are right about now?
Yes! The Curse Of Timelord!!!! :twisted:
That thread was the beginning of the end. We will now wait for the thread asking if anyone else is tired of the market going down 2 or 3 percent all the time. Yikes!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by finite_difference » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:39 pm

Derby wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:07 pm
CoAndy wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am
Well, TimeLord posted a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone else was tired of the market going up. Wonder what his thoughts are right about now?
He's going to put off retiring for one more year. :mrgreen:
When TimeLord finally retires, that’s when we really have to worry.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:42 pm

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by prettybogle » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:45 pm

Reading a lot of news articles stating that s & p closed below its 200 day moving average and it is a very bearish sign. Wonder what suddenly changed in 3 months that will lead us into bear market. Just in January there was a parade of big guys screaming we are in goldilocks market and it will only go higher.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dwickenh » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:48 pm

They scream when it's going up and they scream when it's going down. In general, they scream all the time.
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheDDC » Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:18 pm

Great googly moogly. How long (Lord) until VTSAX closes under 60?

-TheDDC

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by runner540 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:00 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:36 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
Bear markets often coincide with recessions, but not always. This feels like the start of a bear to me as well....we will know for sure in a few months perhaps, until then I’m getting exceptionally good at TLH’ing.

I also wonder where Wall Street has the dead bodies buried this time.... consumer debt? Student debt? Auto debt? Too much borrowing to invest, and as interest rates rise the air comes out of the tires?

It just seems really unlikely this bull is going to run even a couple more years.
Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.

I guess the important thing is whether one is losing sleep at night. I am glad that I can still just say 'huh, that's interesting' when I look at my balance.
I agree that the most widely tracked and backward looking economic indicators are strong, but I am concerned that it's held up only by cheap debt. The consumer has levered back up on all fronts (mortgages, autoloans, credit cards, etc.). Not much margin to absorb any shocks (trade war, higher gas prices, higher unemployment, etc.) among non-BH consumers. Mortgage quality has been declining steadily for years (lower down payments, lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios), non-bank subprime auto loans are delinquent at rates last seen in 2010, and bank card delinquencies are increasing despite strong employment and no one knows why...
All that said, I'm sticking with my asset allocation, but I'm not particularly bullish for the short/medium term.

Source with chart on autoloan delinquencies https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... no-way-out
Source on bank credit cards https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 16726.html
Source on mortgages: http://www.housingrisk.org/housing-mark ... #more-3140

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:15 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
...Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.
“The fundamental business of the country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.”--Herbert Hoover, 1931

""The fundamentals of our economy are strong."--John McCain, September 15th, 2008.

You can have a good deal of pain in the stock market even if the economy is "fundamentally sound."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by prettybogle » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:22 pm

runner540 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:00 pm
I agree that the most widely tracked and backward looking economic indicators are strong, but I am concerned that it's held up only by cheap debt. The consumer has levered back up on all fronts (mortgages, autoloans, credit cards, etc.). Not much margin to absorb any shocks (trade war, higher gas prices, higher unemployment, etc.) among non-BH consumers. Mortgage quality has been declining steadily for years (lower down payments, lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios), non-bank subprime auto loans are delinquent at rates last seen in 2010, and bank card delinquencies are increasing despite strong employment and no one knows why...
This.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:52 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:15 pm
Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
...Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.
“The fundamental business of the country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.”--Herbert Hoover, 1931

""The fundamentals of our economy are strong."--John McCain, September 15th, 2008.

You can have a good deal of pain in the stock market even if the economy is "fundamentally sound."
Much respect, Nisiprius, and of course it's true that you can have big drops in the market while the economy is good, anything can happen at anytime.

The issue I have with the quotes above is that both those men a) had a political stake in keeping people happy and b) ignored an inverted yield curve (though, I think one could legitimately have quoted Fischer. Permanently high plateau indeed.) On the other hand, George Soros has been predicting a devastating depression for the past eight years :wink:

I think 30 years ago we'd be on the brink of recession due to demand driven inflation, but globalization and automation are reducing labor demand sufficiently to significantly offset inflationary pressures as well as impeding the usual business cycle over-production. (Though, about inflation I agree with what Todd Harrison of Minyanville used to say more accurately: we have "deflation in things we want, inflation in things we need".) The many other dangers in our economy appear to me like speed bumps rather than brick walls, but everyone has to assess that for themselves.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by whodidntante » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:24 pm

runner540 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:00 pm

I agree that the most widely tracked and backward looking economic indicators are strong, but I am concerned that it's held up only by cheap debt. The consumer has levered back up on all fronts (mortgages, autoloans, credit cards, etc.). Not much margin to absorb any shocks (trade war, higher gas prices, higher unemployment, etc.) among non-BH consumers. Mortgage quality has been declining steadily for years (lower down payments, lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios), non-bank subprime auto loans are delinquent at rates last seen in 2010, and bank card delinquencies are increasing despite strong employment and no one knows why...
All that said, I'm sticking with my asset allocation, but I'm not particularly bullish for the short/medium term.
To contribute to the FUD, quantitative easing is a nearly worldwide economic experiment whose results are still not fully understood or played out. It has worked great, so far. But we've created money to buy bonds and it should not surprise us that it applied upward pressure to bond prices. That is what it was intended to do. OK, it was intended to cut longer term rates. But you cut rates by increasing bond prices.

And now, one country with a gigantic economy has decided to unwind the stack. And we picked a cherry of a time while we are also borrowing money at an increased rate. We'll have some kind of idea of how the capital markets responded to that in a few years. I have no idea how it will play out. The thing about bubbles is you can't see them from the inside.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Cunobelinus » Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:44 am

Today, on the drive into work, I had a fleeting moment of "awareness." The radio host was stating that the markets suffered a drop because of concerns in the tech sector due to speculation about regulation that may or may not happen. I momentarily felt disappointed, thinking "who trading stocks actually knows about the impact of this unknown 'regulation' on the 'tech sector'." But then I felt at peace, because the very next thought was "nobody knows nothing," and I realized that it doesn't really matter and it's just noise.

Then the moment passed, and then I was disappointed again when I thought that there's a huge machine that employs a ton of people but doesn't really produce anything aside from entropy.. the financial industry.

I got to work and was further disappointed that the markets didn't drop enough to qualify as an RBD.

Disappointment and entropy. :|

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:51 am

Wow, you are living a life full of disappointments! Stay home tomorrow and let's see how Miss Market reacts. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:48 am

WOW, over 2 pages of posts on Monday about "U.S. stocks in freefall".

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:08 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
I wasn't thinking we're at risk of recession at all - corporate profits are going to continue to be high, especially with the tax law changes.

What's changed is market sentiment with people OVER-reacting to every little bit of news, rumor or speculation and sending the Dow up or down 500+ points everytime there's so much as a tiny perception of anything happening. It's really getting insane.
Yes, the market is very bipolar right now. But historically, it's unlikely that a real bear market will set in apart from a recession, though anything can happen.
"Bipolar" seems an apt description. I make no predictions on what is next.

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:08 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:03 pm
Hard cold cash is still the King.
Yep - and that's why I'm personally 50+% cash and always have been. I'll take the ~2.5% divvys and pay a good chunk of my bills with that..
We are 72 years old, retired, less than 1% cash, 50/50 asset allocation, and will stay the course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:04 pm

Thanks Mister Ruralavalon, yes, Monday was a busy day here . . . I wonder why.

Good luck with your investments, y gracias por leer ~cfs~

p.s. As I have said ad nauseam "You just don't want to be out of this market for ONE day!"
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:40 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:46 am
My 401k money goes in on Wednesday so I predict Mr. Market will be back up by then.
What did I say, market creeping back up again. This market is so boring, we will probably remake the rest of Monday’s losses before my mutual fund buys can go in Wednesday afternoon.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Christine600 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:56 am

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:25 pm
They may very well be a "good thing" for wage earners, less likely to be good for those looking at profit margins. In some of the reports there has been offers of reduced duties on things like cars if the plants they're produced in pay higher wages... anyway around it, none of it seems to be set in stone and "deals" to be made, which I'm sure the markets will react to with big "adjustments".
A trade war is good for those who gets their competition blocked. But eventually someone has to pay for all those new customs tariffs. That part is bothering me.

Even companies over here in friendly Norway have to pay these new tariffs trading with the US. I fail to see how that will make the US more secure. American scaredy pants! :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:22 am

Christine600 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:56 am
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:25 pm
They may very well be a "good thing" for wage earners, less likely to be good for those looking at profit margins. In some of the reports there has been offers of reduced duties on things like cars if the plants they're produced in pay higher wages... anyway around it, none of it seems to be set in stone and "deals" to be made, which I'm sure the markets will react to with big "adjustments".
A trade war is good for those who gets their competition blocked. But eventually someone has to pay for all those new customs tariffs. That part is bothering me.

Even companies over here in friendly Norway have to pay these new tariffs trading with the US. I fail to see how that will make the US more secure. American scaredy pants! :oops:
I'm not sure the argument has been that it makes it more secure, but I suppose the argument could be made. U.S. has been running a trade deficit for decades. The deficit manifests into a debt owed, which we'd like to think means the people owed will buy stuff we make in the future, but it hasn't been working that way.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Shallowpockets » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:11 am

Well, the stock market is now below the numbers at the start of the year, so we will have to climb out of that just to reach equal. This is not sentiment, only the numerics.
The market rarely goes up at the rate at which it goes down, so the bounces to bring it back become unrealistic once the numbers reach a certain point. Maybe you can regain a 2-3% drop, but when it falls farther, it takes longer. Could take months. We are already into the year 3 months. If it takes 3 more months to come back to equal 2107 years end, then we will have 6 months to make any further gains. The average yearly gain on the S and P is about 10%, so we would have those 6 months to hit that number.
What are the chances?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vested1 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:25 am

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:32 am

Shallowpockets wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:11 am
Well, the stock market is now below the numbers at the start of the year, so we will have to climb out of that just to reach equal. This is not sentiment, only the numerics.
The market rarely goes up at the rate at which it goes down, so the bounces to bring it back become unrealistic once the numbers reach a certain point. Maybe you can regain a 2-3% drop, but when it falls farther, it takes longer. Could take months. We are already into the year 3 months. If it takes 3 more months to come back to equal 2107 years end, then we will have 6 months to make any further gains. The average yearly gain on the S and P is about 10%, so we would have those 6 months to hit that number.
What are the chances?
After such an upward move in 2017, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the market took a break and consolidated at these levels. Could be months or it could be years. Bottom line, no one knows the chances.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

samsdad
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by samsdad » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:45 am

Looks like another down day today! Unfortunately I had to make some significant buys this week and have to confess that the down cycle this week is probably all my fault. Sorry folks. After doing one last exchange today I’ll probably be good for awhile and we can resume the upward momentum that keeps us all here. Again, my apologies.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:10 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:32 am
Shallowpockets wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:11 am
Well, the stock market is now below the numbers at the start of the year, so we will have to climb out of that just to reach equal. This is not sentiment, only the numerics.
The market rarely goes up at the rate at which it goes down, so the bounces to bring it back become unrealistic once the numbers reach a certain point. Maybe you can regain a 2-3% drop, but when it falls farther, it takes longer. Could take months. We are already into the year 3 months. If it takes 3 more months to come back to equal 2107 years end, then we will have 6 months to make any further gains. The average yearly gain on the S and P is about 10%, so we would have those 6 months to hit that number.
What are the chances?
After such an upward move in 2017, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the market took a break and consolidated at these levels. Could be months or it could be years. Bottom line, no one knows the chances.

:beer
Wouldn’t be the worst thing, or abnormal either. It would honestly be weirder and more concerning to me if it reset and started a 2016/2017 type climb again (low volatility steady above-average growth). Then again 1996-2000 happened after “exceptional exuberance”. At-least 1996 was an actual low (even after the crash).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:26 am

Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.
Both of those recessions were preceded by an uptick in the unemployment rate.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Christine600 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:45 am

JoMoney wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:22 am
A trade war is good for those who gets their competition blocked. But eventually someone has to pay for all those new customs tariffs. That part is bothering me.

Even companies over here in friendly Norway have to pay these new tariffs trading with the US. I fail to see how that will make the US more secure. American scaredy pants! :oops:
I'm not sure the argument has been that it makes it more secure, but I suppose the argument could be made. U.S. has been running a trade deficit for decades. The deficit manifests into a debt owed, which we'd like to think means the people owed will buy stuff we make in the future, but it hasn't been working that way.
[/quote]

Seems to me that the US has a trade excess vs Norway so why the US behave like this is mindboggling:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4039.html

And atleast early on a trade war/tariffs was launched as a national security measure:

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/t ... ncna852626

This line of reasoning may have been toned down recently - I don't follow US media that close...


But by all means - if the US think Norway is a dangerous country they probably should take some measures. A global trade war is probably worth it if the US can sleep better at night vs Norway. :mrgreen:

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walletless
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:58 am

What free-fall?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by geospatial » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:52 pm

Christine600 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:45 am
But by all means - if the US think Norway is a dangerous country they probably should take some measures. :mrgreen:
Your winter Olympians are a global threat that must be stopped at all costs.

:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:13 pm

samsdad wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:45 am
Looks like another down day today! Unfortunately I had to make some significant buys this week and have to confess that the down cycle this week is probably all my fault. Sorry folks. After doing one last exchange today I’ll probably be good for awhile and we can resume the upward momentum that keeps us all here. Again, my apologies.
Thanks I was trying to figure out why it wasn't back up again by the time I had to put my bi-weekly buys in. We are both done though, so the market can crash now, right?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:17 pm

TSquare wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:46 pm
zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:07 pm
TSquare wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:37 pm
TSquare wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks!
I warned you all back in February!
If I had a dollar for every time I've been warned by some lurker about impending doom, I'd be retired now.
I stand by my prognostication!
This is a pretty silly thread to claim to be able to predict the market.

Go back and read the actual thread and see how often someone just like you claimed that the market was, for sure, about to crash hard. There are posts from 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017, and of course 2018.

Sooner or later, one person to cry doom will be right. It may even be you. That doesn't mean you'll be proven smarter than the average bear.

Nobody knows enough to predict anything.

(NOTE: I've written this exact note in this same thread at least 3-4 times to people in 2014,2015,2016,2017. And now 2018).

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:53 pm

Read an article today on MarketWatch where Schwab's chief investment strategist said we are in a "bunny market" (not a bear..not a bull..a bunny :happy ). Here's the actual quote..

"This probably isn't the start of a bear market, but it doesn't 'feel' like a bull market right now - it's more of a 'bunny market' as the jittery market hops up and down".

Love it. We now have a TOTALLY NEW type of market - the BUNNY MARKET!

PS: I swear I am not making this up..

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:57 pm

Well, Miss Bunny is having a BLAST today . . . down big time, recover a little, up a little, hop hop hop hop . . . she is having FUN !!!!

Good luck with your investments, y gracias por leer ~cfs~

p.s. You just don't want to be out of this market Bunny Market for ONE day !!!!!!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:03 pm

Having the market bunny hop and go sideways for a few months/years is probably a good thing. It will allow corporate earnings to catch up to the valuations and possibly prevent a bigger sell off down the road.

Kind of like earthquakes. A lot of little earthquakes is good news, because if you go too long without an earthquake, all that pressure builds up and you get a higher likelihood of a big one.

For us buy and hold investors, both paths likely lead to the same destination, but a sideways market is a lot less stressful, and would (hopefully) lead to a lot less financial pain in the wider economy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:06 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:53 pm
Love it. We now have a TOTALLY NEW type of market - the BUNNY MARKET!
YaY eeeyaa Yay eeya
Easter is over,
but bunny is here to stay
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:08 pm

bligh wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:03 pm
Having the market bunny hop and go sideways for a few months/years is probably a good thing. It will allow corporate earnings to catch up to the valuations and possibly prevent a bigger sell off down the road.

Kind of like earthquakes. A lot of little earthquakes is good news, because if you go too long without an earthquake, all that pressure builds up and you get a higher likelihood of a big one.

For us buy and hold investors, both paths likely lead to the same destination, but a sideways market is a lot less stressful, and would (hopefully) lead to a lot less financial pain in the wider economy.
Yes, I think that this bunny market may shake out some of the nervous nellies in the market, potentially keeping a bear market from taking hold.

Even if the market is just going sideways, volatility pushes a lot of folks out of stocks.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:37 pm

With regards to some earlier posts, please refrain from conjecturing on the effects of tariffs or trade wars.

See: Politics and Religion and Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:23 pm

We had a fairly vigorous bunny market in 2015-2016, and somehow managed to survive. 8-)
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Portfolio7 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:40 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:26 am
Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Most economic indicators are strong - a few are in decline, most continue to make steady improvement. The thing about the last two big dips, both involved a market where valuations were totally divorced from underlying fundamentals. Dotcom, then the housing market and it's leveraged impact. At least this market is supported by strong profit growth.
Both of those recessions were preceded by an uptick in the unemployment rate.
Good point. Yields inverted as well, though it seems like that's not as immediate an indicator as the UER.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:12 pm

scone wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:23 pm
We had a fairly vigorous bunny market in 2015-2016, and somehow managed to survive. 8-)
(Flashing back on the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog... :shock: )
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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