U.S. stocks in freefall

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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:38 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:23 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:08 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:33 pm
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:42 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:39 pm
Yet again I didn't get a chance to TLH VOO. It might have hit a negative at some point, but it was positive every time I checked. I ended the day with $1.10 in unrealized gains.
Even if you went a couple of points into the red, why would you bother TLH such a small amount?
To swap it for IVV. I've mentioned this several times.
If you simply prefer IVV over VOO, I would think a $1.10 gain would be low enough to be worth it.

As to why not to TLH with just ANY loss; transaction costs on ETF buy/sale.
Earl wants to know if the sale will get characterized as a wash sale. Earl is a tax scientist, the rarest of all scientists.
I see. He should just buy another share since we all know the market can only go down now!!!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:58 pm

This sums up investor sentiment on the various investing communities I participate in:

Image
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:23 pm

See below.
Last edited by Earl Lemongrab on Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:26 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:23 pm
Earl wants to know if the sale will get characterized as a wash sale. Earl is a tax scientist, the rarest of all scientists.
Well, I don't think the brokerage will report it. Although that would awesome. I'm putting it out there for the IRS and to prove to the forum that I believe what I say about VOO and IVV not being substantially identical.

Naturally I'd prefer a larger loss, but I'll take a buck if I can get it.
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iceport
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:37 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:26 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:23 pm
Earl wants to know if the sale will get characterized as a wash sale. Earl is a tax scientist, the rarest of all scientists.
Well, I don't think the brokerage will report it. Although that would awesome. I'm putting it out there for the IRS and to prove to the forum that I believe what I say about VOO and IVV not being substantially identical.
That wouldn't "prove" anything about the two funds' status as substantially identical.

All it would indicate is that the broker was not required to report the trade as a wash sale per 1099-B reporting requirements. That doesn't prove individual taxpayers are not required to report the trade as a wash sale, in accordance with Section 1091.

As this article explains, 1099-B reporting requirements are not the same as taxpayer compliance with Section 1091: Wash Sale Loss Adjustments Can Be A Big Tax Return Headache
Brokers calculate wash sales based on identical positions (an exact symbol only) per separate brokerage account. But the wash sale loss rules for taxpayers, Section 1091, requires taxpayers to calculate wash sales based on substantially identical positions (between equities and equity options and equity options at different exercise dates) across all their individual accounts including IRAs — even Roth IRAs.
Many tax preparers and taxpayers continue to disregard Section 1091 rules, even after acknowledging differences with broker 1099-B rules. They do so at their peril if caught by the IRS.
Wash-sale rules differ between brokers and taxpayers

IRS regulations require brokers to calculate and report wash sales per account based on identical positions (it’s reiterated in Form 1099-B instructions).
IRS regulations for Section 1091 require taxpayers to calculate wash sales based on “substantially identical” positions. That’s very different from the rule for brokers that require “identical” positions.
A TD Ameritrade article lays out the same basic case, perhaps more explicitly: Wash Sale Tax Rules
It’s certainly a lot to keep track of, which is why your broker helps you out with some of it. But there are limitations. The IRS gave taxpayers and brokers different rule books when calculating wash sales. Here are a few of the basic differences:
Image

Does it seem like the broker is held to less stringent standards than the average taxpayer? Keep in mind that your broker is not privy to all your accounts across multiple firms, the identity of your spouse and all of their accounts, nor does it know what companies you may control. That would be a logistical nightmare! Plus, the term “substantially identical” leaves quite a bit of room for interpretation. Therefore, brokers cannot realistically track all applicable transactions.
Another example of brokerage guidance comes from Schwab: A Primer on Wash Sales
Q: What if I wanted to sell a security to take a loss, but didn’t want to be out of the market for an entire month just to avoid the wash sales rule? What could I do?

You could sell the security at a loss and the use the proceeds from that sale to purchase a similar —but not substantially identical—security that suits your asset allocation and long-term investment plan.

Unfortunately, the government has not provided a straightforward definition of what it considers “substantially identical.” Investors will have to use their best judgment to avoid the wash-sale rules.

Here's an example of how the process would work. Let’s say you own an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is closely correlated to the S&P 500® Index and you end up selling that ETF at a loss. You could then use the proceeds from that sale to purchase a different ETF (or multiple ETFs) with similar but not identical assets, such as an ETF that tracks the Russell 1000® Index. By doing this you are able to take a loss on your current year tax return and still remain in the market with about the same asset allocation in your portfolio.

The process of taking losses and finding other investments that meet your needs isn’t always easy. To successfully harvest a tax loss, you have to monitor your asset allocations, watch out for wash sales, and make sure that the replacement assets you buy aren’t substantially identical.
Notice that Schwab doesn't recommend using a different fund that tracks the same index to avoid a wash sale, even though such a substitution would not be reported on a 1099-B form, in accordance with 1099-B reporting requirements.

It seems you are mistaking the 1099-B reporting requirements as some form of clarification of the wash sale rules. Unfortunately, the 1099-B reporting requirements are different than the requirements of Section 1091. The ambiguity of the term "substantially identical" is alive and well.
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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:49 am

FWIW, from a close reading of Earl's post I don't think that is his point at all. He's isn't talking about the brokerage not reporting the sale as meaning anything substantive; his only mention of the brokerage was how cool it would be if they did report it.

I don't think Earl is mistaking anything about 1099-B reporting requirements. His actions are more of a dare to the IRS, not brokerages. I would read his post again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:02 am

triceratop wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:49 am
FWIW, from a close reading of Earl's post I don't think that is his point at all. He's isn't talking about the brokerage not reporting the sale as meaning anything substantive; his only mention of the brokerage was how cool it would be if they did report it.

I don't think Earl is mistaking anything about 1099-B reporting requirements. His actions are more of a dare to the IRS, not brokerages. I would read his post again.
I considered Earl's post in the context of a discussion in another thread. In that discussion, he seems to be interpreting the 1099-B reporting requirements as some form of clarification of the IRS interpretation of "substantially identical" securities.
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:33 am

iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:37 am

That wouldn't "prove" anything about the two funds' status as substantially identical.
At no time did I say anything like that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:35 am

iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:02 am
In that discussion, he seems to be interpreting the 1099-B reporting requirements as some form of clarification of the IRS interpretation of "substantially identical" securities.
So if a brokerage reported that exchange as a wash sale, you would not consider that to be evidence of "substantially identical"?
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iceport
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:53 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:35 am
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:02 am
In that discussion, he seems to be interpreting the 1099-B reporting requirements as some form of clarification of the IRS interpretation of "substantially identical" securities.
So if a brokerage reported that exchange as a wash sale, you would not consider that to be evidence of "substantially identical"?
That's not what I'm saying at all. I don't even know why you would introduce such an example. Clearly, the definition of the term "substantially identical" includes securities that are, in fact, "identical." What I'm saying is that it doesn't work the other way around, that the definition of "identical" does not include all securities that are "substantially identical."

As best I can piece your thought process together, you seem to think if a brokerage doesn't report it, that it is evidence that they are not "substantially identical".

From your post earlier in this thread:
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
I'm trying to point out that the brokerage and the investor have different requirements to meet. Brokerages must report wash sales based on trades of "identical" securities. Taxpayers must report wash sales based on trades of "substantially identical" securities. But you seem to be ignoring all evidence I present to show that, and I don't understand why.
Last edited by iceport on Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:59 am

Making a prediction:

I think the economy is slowing, the consumer is exhausted, and higher interest rates are hurting economic growth more than I thought they would. I look at credit card defaults, student loan burdens, and auto sales slowing/loan defaults growing. I look at a flattening yield curve and higher short term borrowing costs. I see the FED on a mission to goose up the short end another 50-75 bp this year alone. Meanwhile the dollar is weakening and commodities such as oil/gas are increasing, which is going to hurt the consumer. In other words while the market has predicted 9 of the last 6 recessions, I think this one is not a false alarm. I predict we’re in recession in the next twelve months and the market will fall at least another 20%.

Mark it down! Come back and tell me in 2019 if I was right or wrong!

(No, I didn’t do anything differently with my portfolio).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:18 am

iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:53 am
As best I can piece your thought process together, you seem to think if a brokerage doesn't report it, that it is evidence that they are not "substantially identical".
No, you want to continue an argument from a different thread on a different subject, one where I already said that I would not continue. WHY are you following me around?

If you read what I said in this thread, my reason for doing the swap is clearly stated. Go read. Understand. Stop replying to me because I won't respond to any other post of yours directed at me. Period. Anywhere. Clear?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:19 am

I'll be honest. I have been fearing a recession for a while now. But now that a setback is here, I don't actually seemed to affected by it. Sure seeing my portfolio dip sucks, but given that I have at least a 10 year horizon it doesn't bother me at all. I'm not buying any more than usual either, just the normal biweekly contributions to VTSAX. My nerves are stronger than I thought.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:27 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:59 am
Making a prediction:

I think the economy is slowing, the consumer is exhausted, and higher interest rates are hurting economic growth more than I thought they would. I look at credit card defaults, student loan burdens, and auto sales slowing/loan defaults growing. I look at a flattening yield curve and higher short term borrowing costs. I see the FED on a mission to goose up the short end another 50-75 bp this year alone. Meanwhile the dollar is weakening and commodities such as oil/gas are increasing, which is going to hurt the consumer. In other words while the market has predicted 9 of the last 6 recessions, I think this one is not a false alarm. I predict we’re in recession in the next twelve months and the market will fall at least another 20%.

Mark it down! Come back and tell me in 2019 if I was right or wrong!

(No, I didn’t do anything differently with my portfolio).
For your prediction to be valid you have to provide more details:
1. When the recession will officially start?
2. How deep the dip will be?
3. When will the economy recover?

Your margin of error should be no greater than +/- 20%

Thank you for your forecasting service,
Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:32 am

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:27 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:59 am
Making a prediction:

I think the economy is slowing, the consumer is exhausted, and higher interest rates are hurting economic growth more than I thought they would. I look at credit card defaults, student loan burdens, and auto sales slowing/loan defaults growing. I look at a flattening yield curve and higher short term borrowing costs. I see the FED on a mission to goose up the short end another 50-75 bp this year alone. Meanwhile the dollar is weakening and commodities such as oil/gas are increasing, which is going to hurt the consumer. In other words while the market has predicted 9 of the last 6 recessions, I think this one is not a false alarm. I predict we’re in recession in the next twelve months and the market will fall at least another 20%.

Mark it down! Come back and tell me in 2019 if I was right or wrong!

(No, I didn’t do anything differently with my portfolio).
For your prediction to be valid you have to provide more details:
1. When the recession will officially start?
2. How deep the dip will be?
3. When will the economy recover?

Your margin of error should be no greater than +/- 20%

Thank you for your forecasting service,
Victoria
How about a Recession Contest like the BH S&P 500 contest?

BTW, one silver lining on this recent drops in the market is it makes my contest prediction more likely to come true (I predicted a 3% rise for 2018...)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:34 am

I have created a formula of a freefall. Freefalling bodies eventually hit the ground. Freefalling markets eventually become 0.

- As of this writing, DJIA = 24,000
- Recent declines were in the 700/day territory.
- It will take 24,000/700 = 34.3 days for DJIA to complete its free fall.

QED: A market freefall takes 34 days and starting on March 28th, will be completed by May 1st, the International Workers' Day.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:36 am

As funny as the subtext of that was, let's remember to keep things on topic and away from politics :wink:

By the way, I think you mistakenly assumed all days are market days; the real date is well past May 1.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:18 am
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:53 am
As best I can piece your thought process together, you seem to think if a brokerage doesn't report it, that it is evidence that they are not "substantially identical".
No, you want to continue an argument from a different thread on a different subject, one where I already said that I would not continue. WHY are you following me around?

If you read what I said in this thread, my reason for doing the swap is clearly stated. Go read. Understand.
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:18 pm

iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:18 am
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:53 am
As best I can piece your thought process together, you seem to think if a brokerage doesn't report it, that it is evidence that they are not "substantially identical".
No, you want to continue an argument from a different thread on a different subject, one where I already said that I would not continue. WHY are you following me around?

If you read what I said in this thread, my reason for doing the swap is clearly stated. Go read. Understand.
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
Allow me to explain: Earl means he is "putting his money where is mouth is" when he states that he is showing his belief it is not a wash sale. I believe he also relishes the chance for the IRS to disagree with him, so he can 1) fight it 2) be famous on bogleheads.org. It doesn't have to do with what his brokerage does, nor has he said it does. You seem to be confusing these disparate issues.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:18 pm

triceratop wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:36 am
As funny as the subtext of that was, let's remember to keep things on topic and away from politics :wink:

By the way, I think you mistakenly assumed all days are market days; the real date is well past May 1.
Oops! I guess we have to wait a week and a half into May for this thread to become providential.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:23 pm

triceratop wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:18 pm
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:18 am
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:53 am
As best I can piece your thought process together, you seem to think if a brokerage doesn't report it, that it is evidence that they are not "substantially identical".
No, you want to continue an argument from a different thread on a different subject, one where I already said that I would not continue. WHY are you following me around?

If you read what I said in this thread, my reason for doing the swap is clearly stated. Go read. Understand.
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
Allow me to explain: Earl means he is "putting his money where is mouth is" when he states that he is showing his belief it is not a wash sale. I believe he also relishes the chance for the IRS to disagree with him, so he can 1) fight it 2) be famous on bogleheads.org. It doesn't have to do with what his brokerage does, nor has he said it does. You seem to be confusing these disparate issues.
triceratop,

Thank you for the explanation! I honestly didn't catch all that from the post above, and I actually have searched through this thread. Does your understanding come from other posts in other threads?
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:25 pm

iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
Again, you have problems reading for comprehension. By swapping the two, it confirms that my professed belief is not idle talk. I believe it and am confident in using those two as TLH partners.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:26 pm

You're quite welcome. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iceport » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:28 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:25 pm
iceport wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:15 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 pm
I bought five shares of VOO this afternoon so that if we have more downturn next week I can sell it for a tax loss and make good on my vow to exchange that for IVV to show my belief that it's not a wash sale. And if the markets never go down, then I will have singlehandedly arrested the slide.
Again, you have problems reading for comprehension. By swapping the two, it confirms that my professed belief is not idle talk. I believe it and am confident in using those two as TLH partners.
Thank you for the explanation. I honestly didn't read all that into your post, but now I see where you are coming from. In my defense, my reading comprehension was influenced by your arguments in the other thread on wash sales.

I am sorry if I have offended you. I assure you it was not intentional.
Last edited by iceport on Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:37 pm

O.K. folks, that's the last of my cash allocated (rolled over a 401k into an IRA). It's FUSVX, so I won't know the price until the close. Such a thrill ride. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:29 pm

If we are headed to a recession, I can look at this as 'horrible timing' as I have dropped in my life savings (minus EF) into the market over the past year. But I choose to look at it as great timing because of the opportunity to get great prices within a year of starting my investing career. It's all about how you look at it...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:03 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:27 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:59 am
Making a prediction:

I think the economy is slowing, the consumer is exhausted, and higher interest rates are hurting economic growth more than I thought they would. I look at credit card defaults, student loan burdens, and auto sales slowing/loan defaults growing. I look at a flattening yield curve and higher short term borrowing costs. I see the FED on a mission to goose up the short end another 50-75 bp this year alone. Meanwhile the dollar is weakening and commodities such as oil/gas are increasing, which is going to hurt the consumer. In other words while the market has predicted 9 of the last 6 recessions, I think this one is not a false alarm. I predict we’re in recession in the next twelve months and the market will fall at least another 20%.

Mark it down! Come back and tell me in 2019 if I was right or wrong!

(No, I didn’t do anything differently with my portfolio).
For your prediction to be valid you have to provide more details:
1. When the recession will officially start?
2. How deep the dip will be?
3. When will the economy recover?

Your margin of error should be no greater than +/- 20%

Thank you for your forecasting service,
Victoria
20% decline from here within 12 months so let’s say DJIA 20,000
recession will be mild, 2 quarters. It will start by April 1 2019, so it will end no later than September 1 2019.
The stock market will be six months early on both the down and upside, so I predict the DJIA will bottom no later than 4/1/19 and as early as 10/1/18.

That’s as good as it gets for the free service. For more specifics, I charge $500 per year.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:09 pm

bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:04 pm
Here we go again...

Ditto,
The more it changes the more it stays the Same :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm

Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:50 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:03 pm
VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:27 am
letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:59 am
Making a prediction:

I think the economy is slowing, the consumer is exhausted, and higher interest rates are hurting economic growth more than I thought they would. I look at credit card defaults, student loan burdens, and auto sales slowing/loan defaults growing. I look at a flattening yield curve and higher short term borrowing costs. I see the FED on a mission to goose up the short end another 50-75 bp this year alone. Meanwhile the dollar is weakening and commodities such as oil/gas are increasing, which is going to hurt the consumer. In other words while the market has predicted 9 of the last 6 recessions, I think this one is not a false alarm. I predict we’re in recession in the next twelve months and the market will fall at least another 20%.

Mark it down! Come back and tell me in 2019 if I was right or wrong!

(No, I didn’t do anything differently with my portfolio).
For your prediction to be valid you have to provide more details:
1. When the recession will officially start?
2. How deep the dip will be?
3. When will the economy recover?

Your margin of error should be no greater than +/- 20%

Thank you for your forecasting service,
Victoria
20% decline from here within 12 months so let’s say DJIA 20,000
recession will be mild, 2 quarters. It will start by April 1 2019, so it will end no later than September 1 2019.
The stock market will be six months early on both the down and upside, so I predict the DJIA will bottom no later than 4/1/19 and as early as 10/1/18.

That’s as good as it gets for the free service. For more specifics, I charge $500 per year.
There must be an inverse relationship between the specificity of predictions and the fee (or salary) charged for these predictions.

Thank you for the guidance for the next 17 months,

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

2Birds1Stone
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:58 pm

cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
Sure it will, end of quarter AND a Friday =)

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:06 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:58 pm
cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
Sure it will, end of quarter AND a Friday =)
Here are the Holidays for ALL the US Markets (for 2018, 2019, 2020).

https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

2Birds1Stone
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:07 pm

cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:06 pm
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:58 pm
cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
Sure it will, end of quarter AND a Friday =)
Here are the Holidays for ALL the US Markets (for 2018, 2019, 2020).

https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
Haha! That's the second time I forgot the markets are closed on Friday. Well tomorrow will be an interesting day :)

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:09 pm

YES, tomorrow WILL be an interesting day . . . we are closing the books for the first quarter and it is not going to be pretty for some. Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:22 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:07 pm
cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:06 pm
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:58 pm
cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
Sure it will, end of quarter AND a Friday =)
Here are the Holidays for ALL the US Markets (for 2018, 2019, 2020).

https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
Haha! That's the second time I forgot the markets are closed on Friday. Well tomorrow will be an interesting day :)
You should be showered with accolades for paying so little attention to the daily goings-on of the markets. Congratulations!

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walletless
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:26 pm

cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:09 pm
YES, tomorrow WILL be an interesting day . . . we are closing the books for the first quarter and it is not going to be pretty for some. Good luck, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
I'm guessing most of us will be down YTD at end of first quarter. I managed to 'catch the falling knife" with my 55k in 401k contributions (done for the year already!).

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NYCwriter » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:34 pm

cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Smile!

This FRIDAY the market will NOT go down.

Gracias por leer ~cfs~
I see what you did there, sir.

Just trust your rules and allocation. I even added a little to my SP500 today, because I like to live dangerously. La vida loca!
Que Sera Sera.

protagonist
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:09 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:50 pm


There must be an inverse relationship between the specificity of predictions and the fee (or salary) charged for these predictions.

Thank you for the guidance for the next 17 months,

Victoria
Good observation, Victoria. You might be right.

NY Daily News costs $1, and you get your horoscope plus free news and weather. Example from today (Capricorn): "As Mars and Saturn make a conjunction in your birth sign, you will be determined to achieve anything. Just make sure you're nice to people on the way up, because they are the same people you'll meet under other circumstances. You don't need to take advantage of anyone. Many will help willingly." Moderately specific prediction, and if the prediction rings true it is not bad advice...potentially both financially and personally profitable.

Our local palm reader charges $5 per palm (you would think she would give a discount to do both, but no. $10 if you want both done). I would have hoped that her readings would be more specific than the NY Daily News given the price, but I don't know that as a fact as I never used her services. But to quote a user's review on Yelp: "She said I have a very long life line and literally nothing else about my palm because then she moved on to say that I have a dark spirit attached to me that he is keeping me from being happy and I'll never be happy until I get rid of it. She very "helpfully" told me she'd be glad to help me be rid of him for an additional $280! " Five times the price and much less specific.

I've never paid for financial predictions so I can't comment on how much specificity you get per dollar compared to the above. I would hope more, though from past experience with financial predictions, and given what you and I both know about complex system dynamics, I would not necessarily expect a lot more accuracy.

grettman
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grettman » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:02 am

Hopefully we will have a nice big sell off today.

I tried to make my regular investments into VTI yesterday but I couldn't.

I am so used to using touch ID on my iPhone that I forgot my vanguard password. So while I could log into my account with touch ID, when you go to make a purchase the app wants your password.

I don't understand the logic in that at all.... but..I guess better safe than sorry.

So I couldn't buy yesterday. ... :sharebeer Here is to a nice drop today (hopefully).

The fact I can't auto invest in an etf and I have to go through this is a good case for VTSAX vs VTI I suppose...

scone
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:00 pm

It’s Maundy Thursday... one minute to close, thundering herds of bonds coming into the home stretch... Everything is up? What?
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

rebellovw
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rebellovw » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:02 pm

Not sure what you are talking about 2 hours to close.

scone
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:07 pm

I could be wrong, but I think the bond market closes early today. But I don’t get why everything seems to be up— maybe the dollar?
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:09 pm

Don't know. I wasn't paying attention. Lawn needs mowing.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

wrongfunds
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wrongfunds » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:11 pm

Lawn needs mowing
I will have to use my snow blower first to remove the snow from the lawn before having to mow it.

peppers
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:16 pm

scone wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:07 pm
I could be wrong, but I think the bond market closes early today. But I don’t get why everything seems to be up— maybe the dollar?
Yes, early close.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/general ... -schedule/
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:46 pm

I tried to TLH those shares of VOO yesterday, but the price near the close kept bouncing around my personal neutral line and I couldn't get a point where I was sure a sale would be a loss. Probably not happening today, unless something interesting happens late.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:08 pm

So after January's enthusiastic +8% move followed by February/March pessimistic 10% move down, markets closed this qtr negative but ever so slightly...


:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:31 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:11 pm
Lawn needs mowing
I will have to use my snow blower first to remove the snow from the lawn before having to mow it.
Either way, we're not peeking at the market.
:beer
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:59 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:08 pm
So after January's enthusiastic +8% move followed by February/March pessimistic 10% move down, markets closed this qtr negative but ever so slightly...


:beer
Looking at Jan 2 - Now ... Basically, nothing happened

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:10 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:08 pm
So after January's enthusiastic +8% move followed by February/March pessimistic 10% move down, markets closed this qtr negative but ever so slightly...


:beer
Looking at Jan 2 - Now ... Basically, nothing happened
I don't know about that. My # of shares went up by a good margin.

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