U.S. stocks in freefall

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Riley15
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Re: Buying the latest dip

Post by Riley15 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:08 pm

The best ones from the media are Market Dropped 5%, X number of trillions were wiped from the US market in a day!!! But when it goes up that same percentage, no one ever says X trillions were created out of thin air based on speculation. Lol. :mrgreen:
Last edited by Riley15 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:14 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Toons
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Re: Buying the latest dip

Post by Toons » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:09 pm

LIke any other day of the week,
It is a great day to invest in your future :happy
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:27 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:16 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:00 am
Have a colleague in my office (non-bogleheader) who is selling everything going to 100% cash. lol.
Personally, I think this is a wise move.
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
Might as well double down and short it with some of that cash :).

Feeling good about my morning buy, but I would've felt just as good if it plunged another 5%.

Dominic
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dominic » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:33 pm

And the Total Stock Market Index is up very slightly for the day.

False alarm folks. Back to your regularly scheduled asset allocations.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:38 pm

Dominic wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:33 pm
And the Total Stock Market Index is up very slightly for the day.

False alarm folks. Back to your regularly scheduled asset allocations.
looks like small caps are helping it stay afloat.
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deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:47 pm

Still haven't had a chance to recklessly tax-loss harvest those VOO shares I bought a little while back.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:52 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:16 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:00 am
Have a colleague in my office (non-bogleheader) who is selling everything going to 100% cash. lol.
Personally, I think this is a wise move.
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
Yeah... if only being the smartest guy will guarantee you the best return from the market. That'd set me up for life.

I do everything I can to keep myself from "doing smart things" to my portfolio. This has been a constant struggle, but by keeping myself in checks, my portfolio is doing pretty well.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:57 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:16 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:00 am
Have a colleague in my office (non-bogleheader) who is selling everything going to 100% cash. lol.
Personally, I think this is a wise move.
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
My son, my wife, and some others are among the smartest people I know AND they’re in the business. As a matter of fact, they’re smart enough to shrug when asked where the market is heading.

Fwiw, through no planning on my part, we own two houses right now and are around $2M out of the market. When one of the houses sells, we’re lump sum investing the proceeds.

At least I’m smart enough to know that I know nothing.

WildCat48
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WildCat48 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:58 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:03 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:58 pm
deltaneutral83 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
Good for him. Sounds like even if he is wrong then, he probably made up enough of it in 2008 to match/beat the Bogleheads.

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:04 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:58 pm
deltaneutral83 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
"a lost decade or two"

VTSAX growth since 03/01/2003 (15 years, middle of his prediction): 4.677

Therefore, he is predicting a 79% equity decline. That would be a crash of epic proportions. If he believes that then he surely must have believed it for some time since the market has not been at those levels for a long time. Does this concern him, about the accuracy of his prediction?

Of course, it is still possible.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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KSOC
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by KSOC » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:05 pm

I have always had the mindset that the market will be down every session. When it actually ends "up", I think, well tomorrow is another day, it'll likely go back down. Helps temper expectations. Other that & Philly sports I'm pretty optimistic.
Too soon old, too late smart.

Riley15
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Riley15 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:07 pm

The best ones from the media are Market Dropped 5%, X number of trillions were wiped from the US market in a day!!! But when it goes up that same percentage, no one ever says X trillions were created out of thin air based on speculation. Lol. :mrgreen:

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:08 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:58 pm
deltaneutral83 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
So, why does he think this?

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:16 pm

Added extra to funds yesterday. Only the 2nd time I've added in the last few months -- 1st being the recent drop.

Would have tossed a bit more on today, but the market already recovered.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:18 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:16 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:00 am
Have a colleague in my office (non-bogleheader) who is selling everything going to 100% cash. lol.
Personally, I think this is a wise move.
How did this colleague ever survive the Great Market Turmoil of 2016?

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walletless
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:41 pm

The sky is falling! S&P 500 is down a full 7 points and change!
Edit: now almost flat!

livesoft
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Re: Buying the latest dip

Post by livesoft » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:50 pm

So because I had new cash in my Roth IRA, I had to buy today. That is, I didn't wait for an RBD. And it was a Friday. Didn't matter.
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rgs92
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Re: Buying the latest dip

Post by rgs92 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:12 pm

Well, if you are one of the many people who ask if they should wait for the dip to finally start investing seriously with their mostly-cash portfolio, you might as well take the plunge today, since the market is off the all-time highs of the recent past.

If you said you were hesitant because the market was at a new high, well it's not anymore.

Actionable advice: set an asset allocation you can live with permanently (60/40 stocks/bond or thereabouts maybe?), and put all your money in according to that today.

No more excuses I would think.
Have faith and good luck (and then don't peek). And just try to relax.

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Re: Buying the latest dip

Post by WanderingDoc » Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:20 pm

Ron Scott wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:06 am
Let's leave politics out of it as usual (you either laugh or cry), the latest dip, call it the "Trade War Dip", certainly looks like a buying opportunity to me...
There will be many dips in the coming months. Don't worry. And it will be more than 10%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:48 pm

I merged Ron Scott's thread "Buying the latest dip" into here, which is a similar discussion.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:04 pm

The cool thing about the recent dippiness is stock and bonds both falling. I’ve been buying both, so I feel like I placed my bet both ways. Unusual. 8-)
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:14 pm

Added to the Roth IRA last week during a down day, added to the Roth IRA this week during a down day . . . and I can see that tricky smile on Miss Market's face like if she is telling me so you think you are so smart . . . Gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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sergeant
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sergeant » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:58 pm

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:58 pm
deltaneutral83 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:41 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
14,000 on the DOW in 2020 would effectively mean zero real return on equities over 20 years, that would have to be a record?
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
Wiser....than who/what?

Did he TELL you he got out in early 2007 and back in at the end of 2009 or show you his financial statements proving it?

If he is such a talented market timer why is he working?
Lincoln 3 EOW!

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:02 pm

cfs wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:14 pm
Added to the Roth IRA last week during a down day, added to the Roth IRA this week during a down day . . . and I can see that tricky smile on Miss Market's face like if she is telling me so you think you are so smart . . . Gracias por leer ~cfs~
I bought in full January 1st ... pretty much right at the same point we were then

Basically, January/February didn’t happen.

Meteoric January rise ... February correction ... yawn

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:41 pm

Ray is right, with all the volatility and we are still ITB [in the black] for the year, for how long, only Miss Market knows.

My signature applies, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
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NotWhoYouThink
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:01 pm

Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
So you heard him say, in early 2007 "I'm getting out of the market, and you should, too"?
And then you heard him say, in late 2009 "I'm getting back in the market, and you should, too"?

Because that would be pretty impressive. But someone you met 5 years ago who claimed to have done those things is pretty common, and not particularly credible.

Edited to add- or maybe not all that impressive. I just checked my net worth charts for that period, and March '07 to November '09 I was only down 6-7%. So he missed the big ramp up and stomach-churning drop, but it wasn't necessarily a huge win. Now Sept '07 to April '09 would have been impressive.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:43 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:06 pm
My February dip buying is not paying off ...

Oh well, guess it’ll be March dip buying too ...
When this happens, you probably feel like a dip too. It is just the way markets work, markets will do what markets will do and small individual investors can't do much about it. When the market goes up a lot, I am surprised. When the market goes down a lot, I am surprised. I have invested in the US Stock Market for over 30 years now, sometimes there are good explanations for market reactions and sometimes there are not. Sometimes markets are just weird. The only thing I can come up with is that people are weird sometimes too. It is that element of human emotion, the old greed and fear thing.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:46 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:43 am
Sometimes markets are just weird. The only thing I can come up with is that people are weird sometimes too. It is that element of human emotion, the old greed and fear thing.
No, no - that's just the market being "efficient." It's the wisdom of the market. :|

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 am

MJW wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:46 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:43 am
Sometimes markets are just weird. The only thing I can come up with is that people are weird sometimes too. It is that element of human emotion, the old greed and fear thing.
No, no - that's just the market being "efficient." It's the wisdom of the market. :|
Efficiency and wisdom are different things.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

rgs92
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:28 am

As far a the S&P00 vs. the total market, I do remember Mr. Bogle saying often that the S&P500 "gives you the weight of the market" and that is basically all you need for adequate diversification.
(Enough to, as he says, "buy the forest, not some trees".)
And as far as I can see, both the S&P and the total market seem to track very closely, even short term.

Silverado
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Silverado » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:01 am

NotWhoYouThink wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Yep, I'm not agreeing with the guy and am staying the course as I always have. He did pull completely out of the market in early 2007 and re-entered at the end of 2009. His belief is we will see a lost decade or two of equity returns. He has a Ph.D. in Finance so I would think he would be wiser...
So you heard him say, in early 2007 "I'm getting out of the market, and you should, too"?
And then you heard him say, in late 2009 "I'm getting back in the market, and you should, too"?

Because that would be pretty impressive. But someone you met 5 years ago who claimed to have done those things is pretty common, and not particularly credible.

Edited to add- or maybe not all that impressive. I just checked my net worth charts for that period, and March '07 to November '09 I was only down 6-7%. So he missed the big ramp up and stomach-churning drop, but it wasn't necessarily a huge win. Now Sept '07 to April '09 would have been impressive.
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Re: 500 Index or Total Stock Market?

Post by pbearn » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:27 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:29 am
KItty:

It is nice to hear from you.
If you were 57 today and had some cash to invest, would it be 500 Index or Total Stock Market?
I would chose Total Stock Market for its better diversification, and it eliminates any need to add more U.S. stock funds.

Both broad market, low-cost index funds are great choices.

There is more than one road to Dublin.

Best wishes
Taylor
Agree completely. Specifically, I like the way Total Market dilutes the weighting of the FANG stocks a little bit. Plus, if there's any truth to small-caps outperforming, you get a bit of that in Total Market. The main reason 500 funds are still so predominant is primarily a historical artifact: that's all we had 30 years ago, Total Market didn't exist.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ETadvisor » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:57 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:02 pm
cfs wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:14 pm
Added to the Roth IRA last week during a down day, added to the Roth IRA this week during a down day . . . and I can see that tricky smile on Miss Market's face like if she is telling me so you think you are so smart . . . Gracias por leer ~cfs~
I bought in full January 1st ... pretty much right at the same point we were then

Basically, January/February didn’t happen.

Meteoric January rise ... February correction ... yawn
January 5 here. Next year I will try for Jan 2. I was unaware you can buy on Jan 1.

selters
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selters » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:46 am

WildCat48 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:45 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:16 pm
WildCat48 wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:00 am
Have a colleague in my office (non-bogleheader) who is selling everything going to 100% cash. lol.
Personally, I think this is a wise move.
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/02 ... elligence/

Intelligence does not predict investing success.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:08 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 am
MJW wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:46 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:43 am
Sometimes markets are just weird. The only thing I can come up with is that people are weird sometimes too. It is that element of human emotion, the old greed and fear thing.
No, no - that's just the market being "efficient." It's the wisdom of the market. :|
Efficiency and wisdom are different things.
The DOW fluctuating wildly 1,600 points in one day is not market efficiency. It can be old fashioned panic, someone's disastrous over-leveraged bet, or trading algorithms going wild. It isn't wisdom, it isn't efficiency, it is just plain old human emotion going wild.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:32 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 am
Efficiency and wisdom are different things.
If they are different in this context then I think one notion absurd and the other dubious at best.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:34 pm

I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
WildCat48:
Mensa is an exclusive society whose membership is restricted to person scoring in the top 2 percent on IQ tests.
During a 15-year period when the S&P 500 had average annual returns of 15.3 percent, the Mensa Investment Club's performance averaged returns of only 2.5%." -- Source: The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

2b2
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2b2 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:25 pm

Mr. Larimore,

BAM!

2b2

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:31 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:34 pm
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
WildCat48:
Mensa is an exclusive society whose membership is restricted to person scoring in the top 2 percent on IQ tests.
During a 15-year period when the S&P 500 had average annual returns of 15.3 percent, the Mensa Investment Club's performance averaged returns of only 2.5%." -- Source: The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Best wishes.
Taylor
This might be my favorite BH post of all time. Direct yet indirect, acerbic yet polite, as 2b2 said, “BAM!”

wrongfunds
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wrongfunds » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:16 pm

Could be but these days, when I am given a reference, I should be able to Google it rather than it being self-referential.

- Said by wrongfund :-)

To put it another way, I would have expected the reference to the actual Mensa investment club results.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by itstoomuch » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:37 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:31 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:34 pm
I'm staying the course, but the colleague I mentioned above is one of the sharpest guys in our firm, thinks we will see the dow around 14,000 by 2020.
WildCat48:
Mensa is an exclusive society whose membership is restricted to person scoring in the top 2 percent on IQ tests.
During a 15-year period when the S&P 500 had average annual returns of 15.3 percent, the Mensa Investment Club's performance averaged returns of only 2.5%." -- Source: The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Best wishes.
Taylor
This might be my favorite BH post of all time. Direct yet indirect, acerbic yet polite, as 2b2 said, “BAM!”
If I was Mensa, I would purposely try to keep the club's investment portfolio, low total yield and not something of higher potential performance.
Too many fingers into the pie makes the pie inedible for all. Thus if the pie will be inedible, make the pie inedible at inception.
I would take all the best scenarios presented and do my own investing. Most likely an Index or individual stocks or RE or private equity.
YMensaMV :annoyed :mrgreen:
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

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Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
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Location: Miami FL

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:43 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:16 pm
Could be but these days, when I am given a reference, I should be able to Google it rather than it being self-referential.

- Said by wrongfund :-)

To put it another way, I would have expected the reference to the actual Mensa investment club results.
wrongfunds:

If you are skeptical about my reference to the Mensa Club statistic in our co-authored book (and you should be), read this:

SMART PEOPLE CAN MAKE STUPID INVESTING DECISIONS

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

azurekep
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azurekep » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:56 pm

KSOC wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:05 pm
I have always had the mindset that the market will be down every session. When it actually ends "up", I think, well tomorrow is another day, it'll likely go back down. Helps temper expectations. Other that & Philly sports I'm pretty optimistic.
That's sort of like anchoring. You're anchoring on a down day and are pleasantly surprised when it's up. Anchoring usually has a particular price point associated with it, but I think this still qualifies.

azurekep
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azurekep » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:22 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 am
MJW wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:46 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:43 am
Sometimes markets are just weird. The only thing I can come up with is that people are weird sometimes too. It is that element of human emotion, the old greed and fear thing.
No, no - that's just the market being "efficient." It's the wisdom of the market. :|
Efficiency and wisdom are different things.
The DOW fluctuating wildly 1,600 points in one day is not market efficiency. It can be old fashioned panic, someone's disastrous over-leveraged bet, or trading algorithms going wild. It isn't wisdom, it isn't efficiency, it is just plain old human emotion going wild.
It's all of those, but plain confusion as well.

When a politician makes random policy changes -- with real economic consequences -- the market has to make violent adjustments on the fly.

Hopefully, the market is now realizing we're in an environment of inflation risk, interest rate risk, political risk and geopolitical risk and will start shrugging it all off whenever these risks are amplified or otherwise confirmed. ;)

Trade wars? YAWN. Nuclear holocaust? YAWN. The Fed taking away the punchbowl? WHAT?!!! Not THAT! Okay....breathe. YAWN. 8-)

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peterinjapan
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Location: Japan!

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peterinjapan » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:37 am

When the drop happened I was on the dance floor in a disco, of all things. I'm in Japan so I'm 14 hours or so ahead of the U.S. I was *not* going to sit there and buy stocks in a place like that, so I closed my phone. Woke up, was $7k up instead of $14k down.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:41 pm

ETadvisor wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:57 am
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:02 pm
cfs wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:14 pm
Added to the Roth IRA last week during a down day, added to the Roth IRA this week during a down day . . . and I can see that tricky smile on Miss Market's face like if she is telling me so you think you are so smart . . . Gracias por leer ~cfs~
I bought in full January 1st ... pretty much right at the same point we were then

Basically, January/February didn’t happen.

Meteoric January rise ... February correction ... yawn
January 5 here. Next year I will try for Jan 2. I was unaware you can buy on Jan 1.
you can submit the order Jan 1 ... it just won't "process" until next business day - whichever day that ends up being ... i just do it primarily to check off 1 thing on the "to do" list.

Crisium
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Crisium » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:26 am

Gary Cohn effect today. Beginning of the end of the bull?

Bwlonge
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bwlonge » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:27 am

Crisium wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:26 am
Gary Cohn effect today. Beginning of the end?
I frame the question as, how long will it take the market to price in projected lost revenue from tariffs?

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