U.S. stocks in free fall

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mptfan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mptfan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?

MoonOrb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MoonOrb » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am

mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CyclingDuo » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:26 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am


2008-2009 was not a correction. It was a fullblown bear market.
Bingo! That's why it is not on the list of those that fit into the mold of "correction". The 2011, and 2015-16 are also suspect as the average stock corrected more than what the S&P shows which put all of those stocks in bear market territory. Regardless, corrections in bull markets are normal. So we're back to normal now. Or at least on our way to getting there...
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:30 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:26 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am


2008-2009 was not a correction. It was a fullblown bear market.
Bingo! That's why it is not on the list of those that fit into the mold of "correction". The 2011, and 2015-16 are also suspect as the average stock corrected more than what the S&P shows which put all of those stocks in bear market territory. Regardless, corrections in bull markets are normal. So we're back to normal now. Or at least on our way to getting there...
I still see why table confused some people. Bear markets start as corrections (unless you hit bear in a single day as in '87), and having a table of corrections that omits the bear markets seems a bit odd.

Crushtheturtle
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:31 am

mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Indeed.

And I'm staying the course! 8-)

Greg in Idaho
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Greg in Idaho » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Hmmm...that one doesn't work in print..."I'm not joking, and stop calling my surely"

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:26 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am


2008-2009 was not a correction. It was a fullblown bear market.
Bingo! That's why it is not on the list of those that fit into the mold of "correction". The 2011, and 2015-16 are also suspect as the average stock corrected more than what the S&P shows which put all of those stocks in bear market territory. Regardless, corrections in bull markets are normal. So we're back to normal now. Or at least on our way to getting there...
Wrong. A Beat market is also a correction by definition.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CyclingDuo » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:50 am

Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:36 am
CyclingDuo wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:26 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am


2008-2009 was not a correction. It was a fullblown bear market.
Bingo! That's why it is not on the list of those that fit into the mold of "correction". The 2011, and 2015-16 are also suspect as the average stock corrected more than what the S&P shows which put all of those stocks in bear market territory. Regardless, corrections in bull markets are normal. So we're back to normal now. Or at least on our way to getting there...
Wrong. A Beat market is also a correction by definition.
Fine. A percentage drop is what it is. Yardeni - and many others in finance - define bull markets, bear markets, and corrections with parameters.

Corrections are declines of 10% or more. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more.

The table was posted with Yardeni's definition of corrections in mind (more than 10%, but less than 20%). If you like, you can peruse that of corrections, bear markets, and bull markets here: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

TOJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TOJ » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:54 am

Looks like the good guys are out in front today.

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:00 am

TOJ wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:54 am
Looks like the good guys are out in front today.
"Great kid! Don't get cocky!" if we are on movie quotes :)

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:07 am

LorieBH wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:07 am
Hi all,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

The Bogleheads.org site is such a wealth of information, I learned how to set up an IPS, how to decide upon my asset allocation, the reason for having Bonds (that took me quite a while I'll admit...) and how to set comfortable rebalancing bands and intervals.

That being said - in reviewing my asset allocations (per my IPS) I noticed I had made a mathematical error on my AA spreadsheet that had me a bit heavier in International stocks than I intended. Upon correcting my AA spreadsheet it triggered a rebalancing band and so today I rebalanced to my intended asset allocation.

Part of me wanted to wait to see how the market does tomorrow - but I know that is "market timing" and I've learned (again from this wonderful forum) that that is NOT what I want to do. So I'm following my IPS and rebalancing per my bands. If the market goes down further, ok. If it goes back up, ok. Either way I'm sticking to my AA and if the market swings enough to trigger another band (it would have to swing pretty hard to do that) then I'll rebalance again.

I'd like to thank everyone here who has posted and shared their knowledge, you have all helped me so much.
Lorie
:happy
Hi Lorie! Nice of you to finally join us. We have been waiting for this day. :D

The Bogleheads site is great. There's just so much to learn. Just don't pay any attention to the 'freefall' thread. It's mostly full of nonsense and you certainly wouldn't want to use anything here to influence your investing decisions. If a mortgage is a negative bond, this thread is negative knowledge.... :shock:

I made the same adjustment last week. I generally just re-balance by allocating new money into my 401K each month, but twice a year I'll check against my re-balancing bands to see if I need to make a more substantial correction. I probably drive Fidelity crazy. In the long run, I don't really think it makes all that much difference exactly how you do it, but if you do it the same way every time, you probably aren't going to mess up too badly. :wink:

alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:10 am

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Don't call me Shirley!

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WoodSpinner
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WoodSpinner » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:17 am

LorieBH wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:07 am
Hi all,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

The Bogleheads.org site is such a wealth of information, I learned how to set up an IPS, how to decide upon my asset allocation, the reason for having Bonds (that took me quite a while I'll admit...) and how to set comfortable rebalancing bands and intervals.

That being said - in reviewing my asset allocations (per my IPS) I noticed I had made a mathematical error on my AA spreadsheet that had me a bit heavier in International stocks than I intended. Upon correcting my AA spreadsheet it triggered a rebalancing band and so today I rebalanced to my intended asset allocation.

Part of me wanted to wait to see how the market does tomorrow - but I know that is "market timing" and I've learned (again from this wonderful forum) that that is NOT what I want to do. So I'm following my IPS and rebalancing per my bands. If the market goes down further, ok. If it goes back up, ok. Either way I'm sticking to my AA and if the market swings enough to trigger another band (it would have to swing pretty hard to do that) then I'll rebalance again.

I'd like to thank everyone here who has posted and shared their knowledge, you have all helped me so much.
Lorie
:happy
May the Force be with You!

Sounds like you are on a good path...

Well done!

WoodSpinner 8-)

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CokeSlurpee711
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CokeSlurpee711 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:25 am

Bummed, missed my buy limit on VTI by $2. Everyone please panic and sell. This time is different.*
Last edited by CokeSlurpee711 on Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:25 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:07 am
Diluting or dampening stock volatility returns is the primary purpose of a bond allocation. Bonds do add diversification.
Fixed that for ya! :wink:
Last edited by willthrill81 on Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:25 am

Black Cat wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:29 am
First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it.
I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too*

I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there have been recommendations for 30-50 % international on the vanguard website. While I realize this is only a few days, and very limited sample, I was hoping that the diversification would help. Now I'm slightly more skeptical of International Bonds as well. :confused
OK. Here in Northern California it hasn't rained in the last week. Now, it is winter so I would expect rain in the winter and sun in the summer, but instead we've been having sunny warm days in the last week. While I realize this is only a few days, and very limited sample, I was hoping that the rain would help. Now I'm slightly more skeptical of rain as well. :confused

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Dendritic Tree
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dendritic Tree » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:34 am

I know that downward blips, corrections, and bears are really frightening for those in or near retirement. Sheepdog's panic thread from Oct 2008 is quite a lesson, and an eye-opener. But for those of us still in the accumulation phase, with decades left to go (and many corrections/bears still to come along the way), this is really exhilarating.

It feels sort of like the middle school kid cheering on the snowstorm because he knows he'll get a day off school and get to play in the snow. But his parents feel entirely differently, because they still have to get to work through treacherous roads. They have opposite motivations.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:36 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:25 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:07 am
Diluting or dampening portfolio stock volatility returns is the primary purpose of a bond allocation. Bonds do add diversification.
Fixed that for ya! :wink:
I fixed it better :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:42 am

thangngo wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:56 am
"This is it! I'm tell ya'll this is it!"

I'm right here buying the dip... quietly.
Just into the third trading day when I called: "this is it!" on Friday at 10:56 CST. How fast things can accelerate. This thing can get down to 20% before this weekend.

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:45 am

Well it seems to be bouncing up and down today and going downwards again as of now.

21300 will be a 20% decline from a high of roughly 26,600. Would that still be considered a correction or would that be more of a crash? Just trying to understand the terminology.

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tuningfork
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tuningfork » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:51 am

Hearing terms like freefall, largest drop ever, correction, and crash bandied about, I decided to look at my current allocation to see if there's been enough movement to force a rebalance. Nope, still within my +/- 5% bands. I do see a small tax loss harvesting opportunity, but it's so small it's probably not worth the effort. So I'll wait. 😴💤

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am

Faisal wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:45 am
Well it seems to be bouncing up and down today and going downwards again as of now.

21300 will be a 20% decline from a high of roughly 26,600. Would that still be considered a correction or would that be more of a crash? Just trying to understand the terminology.
20% is a bear market. I haven’t checked the Dow but Total US is still up today and is a much better proxy for the full domestic market.

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:57 am

tuningfork wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:51 am
Hearing terms like freefall, largest drop ever, correction, and crash bandied about, I decided to look at my current allocation to see if there's been enough movement to force a rebalance. Nope, still within my +/- 5% bands. I do see a small tax loss harvesting opportunity, but it's so small it's probably not worth the effort. So I'll wait. 😴💤
+1. I'm only about a percent and a half off, and I was almost at that point a couple weeks ago. So back to sleep.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:00 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am
Faisal wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:45 am
Well it seems to be bouncing up and down today and going downwards again as of now.

21300 will be a 20% decline from a high of roughly 26,600. Would that still be considered a correction or would that be more of a crash? Just trying to understand the terminology.
20% is a bear market. I haven’t checked the Dow but Total US is still up today and is a much better proxy for the full domestic market.
Thanks. The market is see-sawing at the moment. It may actually go back up today. Who knows.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:09 am

Faisal wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:00 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am
Faisal wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:45 am
Well it seems to be bouncing up and down today and going downwards again as of now.

21300 will be a 20% decline from a high of roughly 26,600. Would that still be considered a correction or would that be more of a crash? Just trying to understand the terminology.
20% is a bear market. I haven’t checked the Dow but Total US is still up today and is a much better proxy for the full domestic market.
Thanks. The market is see-sawing at the moment. It may actually go back up today. Who knows.
I see, looks like my Apple Stocks app was behind the curve so apologies there.

I'll use this post as an opportunity to confess a sin; I went against my own mantra of always being 100% invested with any cash I have available, and took some cash allocated for a few bills coming in 1-2 months and used it for some limit orders overnight. I scored my full AA (US, Int, SCV) at the (current) bottom!

deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:18 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am
20% is a bear market. I haven’t checked the Dow but Total US is still up today and is a much better proxy for the full domestic market.
I'm kind of curious, with the bouncing around on a day like today, I see various Total US ETF indexes vastly different at points throughout the 1.5 hours of trading today. For instance, SPTM and VTI. I know SPTM isn't as liquid as VTI, but should these two ETFs really ever be more than 50 basis points off their gain/loss % at any given point in time in the day? That seems like a lot. I know it's not a big deal, but I am generally curious as to how markets operate.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:23 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:18 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am
20% is a bear market. I haven’t checked the Dow but Total US is still up today and is a much better proxy for the full domestic market.
I'm kind of curious, with the bouncing around on a day like today, I see various Total US ETF indexes vastly different at points throughout the 1.5 hours of trading today. For instance, SPTM and VTI. I know SPTM isn't as liquid as VTI, but should these two ETFs really ever be more than 50 basis points off their gain/loss % at any given point in time in the day? That seems like a lot. I know it's not a big deal, but I am generally curious as to how markets operate.
Interesting. I see similar oddities with VIOV vs. IJS, which are small-cap value funds tracking the same index. VIOV has a tiny volume, and often my watch-app does not have data points as close to current time as it does for IJS, or has some points missing, which can skew things. If you go on Vanguard to buy VIOV though, the currently available bid-ask values are close to current IJS trading. Zoom out beyond a week though and you can't discern the difference.

perl
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by perl » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:33 am

If this dip is spooking you, I recommend the book Your Money and Your Brain by Jason Zweig. It explains well the neuroscience behind financial and investing decisions, and it has nice checklists of things you can do to limit your instinctive and panic reactions.

deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:43 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:23 am
Interesting. I see similar oddities with VIOV vs. IJS, which are small-cap value funds tracking the same index. VIOV has a tiny volume, and often my watch-app does not have data points as close to current time as it does for IJS, or has some points missing, which can skew things. If you go on Vanguard to buy VIOV though, the currently available bid-ask values are close to current IJS trading. Zoom out beyond a week though and you can't discern the difference.
Yep, VIOV can go minutes without trading though and 10,000 shares a day, so it can get really out of whack with IJS. SPTM trades half million shares a day, not as liquid obviously as VTI which trades every millisecond, but still pretty liquid??

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:46 am

So, if I do some stock trading now and call it "rebalancing" then I haven't sinned and don't have to go to confessional? :D Why all this timing rebalancing right now?
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:57 am

CULater wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:46 am
So, if I do some stock trading now and call it "rebalancing" then I haven't sinned and don't have to go to confessional? :D Why all this timing rebalancing right now?
rebalancing = buying/selling assets to move towards a pre-determined allocation when market gains/loses have triggered a need to do so, generally by a pre-determined rebalancing criteria
timing = buying/selling assets because of a belief that you have foreknowledge of the market direction and are on the fly adjusting your asset allocation to take advantage of that "knowledge"

Which you would be doing is for you to know. They aren't the same however. [OT comment removed by moderator prudent]

BD w/ Kung-Fu Grip
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BD w/ Kung-Fu Grip » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:14 pm

Black Cat wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:29 am
First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it.
I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too*

I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there have been recommendations for 30-50 % international on the vanguard website. While I realize this is only a few days, and very limited sample, I was hoping that the diversification would help. Now I'm slightly more skeptical of International Bonds as well. :confused
VXUS up 1.18% as of this writing.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:17 pm

Keep an eye on today - a doozy might be on the way. Of course it could be an UP doozy, I guess.
Utilizing a duration model we found that extreme movements can, to some extent, be predicted on the basis of unusually large movements in preceding periods. One particularly robust finding is that extreme movements in stock prices are usually preceded by large average daily movements during the preceding three trading days. A similar finding was reported for daily N.Y. City temperatures.
There has been considerable empirical work confirming that stock returns are not normally distributed. Moreover, we know that stock prices do not follow a strict random-walk process and may, to some extent, be predicable. The paper has examined the temporal properties of the “fat tails” of the stock-return distributions. We found that there has been a clustering of days when the stock market has been subject to “extreme movements,” which we define as daily stock returns that are three or more standard deviations away from the mean return.
The Clustering of Extreme Movements: Stock Prices and the Weather
by Burton G. Malkiel, Princeton University Atanu Saha, AlixPartners
Alex Grecu, Huron Consulting Group


https://www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingp ... lkiel.pdf
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:33 pm

BD w/ Kung-Fu Grip wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:14 pm
Black Cat wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:29 am
First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it.
I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too*

I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there have been recommendations for 30-50 % international on the vanguard website. While I realize this is only a few days, and very limited sample, I was hoping that the diversification would help. Now I'm slightly more skeptical of International Bonds as well. :confused
VXUS up 1.18% as of this writing.
couldn't buy yesterday so of course it is .. oh well, still cheapest it's been all year - aside from yesterday!

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm

not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1

I saw a few comments yesterday on this thread regarding being glad they're all U.S...

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:45 pm

lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1

I saw a few comments yesterday on this thread regarding being glad they're all U.S...
+2 if you hold a slight tilt to Emerging Markets like I do.

But lets not forget, that it is a double edged sword, it may swing the other way tomorrow. :happy

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:46 pm

MoonOrb wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:24 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
LOL. Is that a reference to the movie Airplane!?
Surely, you must be joking.
Don't call me Sherly.

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:48 pm

lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1
Focusing on one day results is not generally useful or applicable - what lessons might one draw from a single day's/week's/month's or for that matter single year's returns. But each to their own. I'm a bit baffled by VXUS (which I own myself in fund form) is up so much, as Nikkei/FTSE/Stoxx indices have all tanked.
Last edited by Da5id on Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lostdog
Posts: 1296
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm

Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:48 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1
Focusing on one day results is not generally useful or applicable - what lessons might one draw from a single day's/week's/month's or for that matter single year's returns/. But each to their own. I'm a bit baffled by VXUS (which I own myself in fund form) is up so much, as Nikkei/FTSE/Stoxx indices have all tanked.
Might be from emerging markets which is up 2%.

inbox788
Posts: 5693
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:24 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by inbox788 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:51 pm

BD w/ Kung-Fu Grip wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:14 pm
VXUS up 1.18% as of this writing.
FYI, I bought a little VTIAX yesterday. VXUS was down nearly 4% at close, but VTIAX only went down 3.4%. The volatility and tracking has gotten very out of whack that is detectable with these highly liquid and what I considered equivalent holdings. Almost makes the case for TLH pair and that they're not "substantially identical".

Da5id
Posts: 2061
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 pm

lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:48 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1
Focusing on one day results is not generally useful or applicable - what lessons might one draw from a single day's/week's/month's or for that matter single year's returns/. But each to their own. I'm a bit baffled by VXUS (which I own myself in fund form) is up so much, as Nikkei/FTSE/Stoxx indices have all tanked.
Might be from emerging markets which is up 2%.
OK. But VXUS is 17% Japan and 42% developed Europe. Guess that has been swamped by Emerging markets today?

tarmangani
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tarmangani » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:57 pm

Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:48 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1
Focusing on one day results is not generally useful or applicable - what lessons might one draw from a single day's/week's/month's or for that matter single year's returns/. But each to their own. I'm a bit baffled by VXUS (which I own myself in fund form) is up so much, as Nikkei/FTSE/Stoxx indices have all tanked.
+1. I know this freefall thread's a free for all thread really, resembling more water cooler chatter than thoughtful analysis, but the amount of short-term thinking here has gotten out of control. Folks, you don't judge the viability of an investment vehicle, asset allocation, or basically anything financial, based on a few days of movement. A few months of movement, even. Throw years in while you're at it.

H-Town
Posts: 1309
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:58 pm

parsi1 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:22 pm
I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market.
So what is the point of having international in your portfolio?
No benefit in having international when the market is going up since US does better and no benefit in down turns since they lose more than US.
How do you feel now?

inbox788
Posts: 5693
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:24 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by inbox788 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:00 pm

Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Might be from emerging markets which is up 2%.
OK. But VXUS is 17% Japan and 42% developed Europe. Guess that has been swamped by Emerging markets today?
EWJ is up 1.25% and VGK is up over 1%. Seems about right.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF(NYSEARCA:EWJ
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF(NYSEARCA:VGK)

Reference time periods and exchange rate may have something to do with different perceptions.

User avatar
bligh
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:06 pm

Boy the Bulls and the Bears are really battling it out today arent they? Today's chart is like a yoyo.

Da5id
Posts: 2061
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:13 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:00 pm
Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Might be from emerging markets which is up 2%.
OK. But VXUS is 17% Japan and 42% developed Europe. Guess that has been swamped by Emerging markets today?
EWJ is up 1.25% and VGK is up over 1%. Seems about right.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF(NYSEARCA:EWJ
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF(NYSEARCA:VGK)

Reference time periods and exchange rate may have something to do with different perceptions.
I wonder if it is exchange rates? I'm looking here: http://markets.wsj.com/, which shows Nikkei off 4.73% today. Hmm.

EnjoyIt
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by EnjoyIt » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:15 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:09 am
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

inbox788
Posts: 5693
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:24 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by inbox788 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:15 pm

Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:13 pm
inbox788 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:00 pm
Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Might be from emerging markets which is up 2%.
OK. But VXUS is 17% Japan and 42% developed Europe. Guess that has been swamped by Emerging markets today?
EWJ is up 1.25% and VGK is up over 1%. Seems about right.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF(NYSEARCA:EWJ
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF(NYSEARCA:VGK)

Reference time periods and exchange rate may have something to do with different perceptions.
I wonder if it is exchange rates? I'm looking here: http://markets.wsj.com/, which shows Nikkei off 4.73% today. Hmm.
No, that was yesterday (mostly). Nikkei reference is Japan market open vs VXUS is US market open. Can't seem to find an afterhours Nikkei tracking...I guess EWJ is it.

http://www.jpx.co.jp/english/derivative ... ing-hours/

Here's one: Nikkei Futures: (up around 1.5%)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NK1:IND
Last edited by inbox788 on Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:21 pm, edited 3 times in total.

RRAAYY3
Posts: 926
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:32 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:15 pm

tarmangani wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:57 pm
Da5id wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:48 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm
not trying to jinx anything, but at least today is showing some advantage of owning 50/50 US/INT'L
+1
Focusing on one day results is not generally useful or applicable - what lessons might one draw from a single day's/week's/month's or for that matter single year's returns/. But each to their own. I'm a bit baffled by VXUS (which I own myself in fund form) is up so much, as Nikkei/FTSE/Stoxx indices have all tanked.
+1. I know this freefall thread's a free for all thread really, resembling more water cooler chatter than thoughtful analysis, but the amount of short-term thinking here has gotten out of control. Folks, you don't judge the viability of an investment vehicle, asset allocation, or basically anything financial, based on a few days of movement. A few months of movement, even. Throw years in while you're at it.
i'm very sorry for the casual observation. all i did was notice US and INT'L went in opposite directions (i.e. "Oh , this is why diversification is recommended. cool."). no short term viability analysis whatsoever - juuuuuuust an observation and friendly reminder for me to "stay the course".

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