U.S. stocks in freefall

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Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm

Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Exactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm

Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Some people getting punched in the mouth.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm

parsi1 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:27 pm
parsi1 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:22 pm
I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market.
So what is the point of having then in your portfolio?
No benefit in having international when the market is going up since US does better and no benefit in down turns since they lose more than US.
I have the strong feeling that this is correct, until it isn't. Problem is I don't know when we'll get to "isn't".
But by the time we get to "isn't" the US market has out performed international significantly and when US drops the international drops as well.
Yes, that has certainly been the pattern and a real knock on foreign stocks. When the markets are down they are all down together and when the markets are up, the U.S. market has been up the most. It seems nuts to invest internationally based on the data. But, as Buffett said: "diversification is protection against ignorance." Wonder why that wouldn't apply to diversifying internationally?
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:48 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Some people getting punched in the mouth.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." -Mike Tyson

investingdad
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by investingdad » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:48 pm

Six figure portfolio reductions are no fun... but the run up seemed way overdone to me. I'm surprised this didn't happen sooner.

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Exactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
Why are you surprised? There is not one school of thought here, and all participants are human. Anyone, whether new or not, can suggest things or raise issues.

Me, I say stay the course. But I'm inherently a pessimist/realist. My financial spreadsheet has magnitude of losses I'd suffer from declines of 10-70% in the value my stock holdings just to keep me realistic and aware of what might happen. And to be honest, until we give up more than a years gains how painful is it really? We are currently back around Jan 2 2018 S&P 500 values. Volatility is the price you pay for investing in risky assets like stocks, and mental "anchoring" to the highs does increase the feeling of pain. If you feel pain seeing the losses, well, look less.

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greg24
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by greg24 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:55 pm

Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
This thread is where doubts are talked about.

The rest of the board basically ignores the daily market movements.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:56 pm

Brutal out there the past few days.

We're close to early retirement so the timing is not great.

Kept telling myself to move more toward cash and FI, but never got around to it..

Thankfully still only around 55% equities overall..but still taking a pounding.

Just concerned this is the beginning of 2008 all over again - right as we're trying to get ready to retire..

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:58 pm

Dow is now down over over 790 points .. wow. Amazing to witness.
Last edited by bligh on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:00 pm

Herd mentality.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:03 pm

Thinning out the herd I see ... pretty much everyone that overbought the market now running for the hills

Nothing has changed, economy and fundamentals are still good, people are dumb.

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:04 pm

It is an absolute blood bath out there guys!

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:03 pm
Nothing has changed, economy and fundamentals are still good, people are dumb.
EXACTLY! When we had the great jobs report on Friday, I actually thought the market would go up a few hundred points. Instead, it totally melted down and that's continuing today.

I know - fear of raising rates because the economy is too hot.

Seems like we've become totally detached from fundamentals, and the market is trading on fear and greed only at this point.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm

900 points. Wow. I wish I had kept some cash to buy in right now.

Edit. 1000 point drop .. WOW! This is a proper panic isn't it? Will they cease trading?
Last edited by bligh on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

iamlucky13
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:08 pm

Houe wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Exactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
Yep, saying and doing are definitely different when doing means watching 5 or 6 figure paper losses show up in your balance. Imagine somebody near retirement who just saw an entire year's worth of living expenses seem to disappear, and wondering whether another year's worth will disappear next week.

I admit I will no doubt start to feel regret if this current trend passes a 10% drop or even a 20% drop, but that's an emotional response. Rationally I know I could not have called the move with certainty. In fact, were I to have adopted the logic that a drop seems imminent and I should sell some of my portfolio and look for a later time to re-enter, I actually would probably have done so several months ago when the market was over 10% lower. Then I'd still have to call the right time to re-enter.

In other words, there's a good chance I would have done so too early and ended up in a worse position than just sticking out the cycle. I've done it before with my "play money" individual stock picks. That's a good lesson at a smaller dollar value than trying it with an entire portfolio.

mancich
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mancich » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm

Unless we think this signals the collapse of American capitalism, we should just disregard and stay the course. For all we know, the market could jump 500 points tomorrow on some seemingly arcane piece of news. :beer

asif408
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by asif408 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm

parsi1 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:22 pm
I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market.
So what is the point of having international in your portfolio?
No benefit in having international when the market is going up since US does better and no benefit in down turns since they lose more than US.
I agree. Other than 2003-2007: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D and 2009-2010: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D and 2017: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D, the US has generally gone up more than developed ex-US and emerging markets.

So in the last 15 years, international stocks have gone up more than US stocks in 8 or 9 years, barely over half. And really, if you started 15 years ago, developed ex-US only outperformed the first 8 years or so, and emerging only outperformed the US market the last 15 years. So the evidence is overwhelmingly on the side of US stocks being the greatest, safest, investments on the face of the earth. Period. End of story.
Last edited by asif408 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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mister_sparkle
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mister_sparkle » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm

1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Last edited by mister_sparkle on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Helo80
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm

Wow.... we knew a day like this was coming....

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BogleMelon » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm

Finally I will have the chance to test my risk tolerence! :wink:
(I wasn't in US around 2008)
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

minesweep
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minesweep » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:12 pm

now 1500+.

BackOfTheNet
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BackOfTheNet » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:13 pm

Back at Nov 2017 levels!

Helo80
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:14 pm

I would care less, but just did a small buy on S&P500 one week ago today in my taxable. But, it's all good. Can't time the market, but who the heck thought we'd be seeing a 1000 pt drop this week!?!?

redhawkwatch
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by redhawkwatch » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:14 pm

I already checked my emotions at the door. I am well diversified (thanks to this forum) & can weather a bad storm.

Don't try to beat the market! Remember that tax bracket & taxes owed are big reasons to hold.

And......ITS GONE!

gouverneur
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gouverneur » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:14 pm

I have been really bad/neglectful about a number of financial to-dos, including contributing to Roths this year and then handling a Roth version (which I should have done as soon as the tax year flipped to 2018, but oh well). Today has actually been a good day in that respect -- have been buying periodically throughout the day. C'est la vie.

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:16 pm

I saw VTI at -4.16% on my Apple stocks app. RBD? :D
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

Helo80
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:16 pm

Is 4 PM EST the trading deadline for today's valuations at Vanguard?

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saltycaper
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:18 pm

What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

Ren
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ren » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pm

My limit orders from this morning already executed early on, but I might as well throw a little into my Roth IRA today. Good day to buy.

Gufomel
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Gufomel » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pm

Quite the volatility out there with people panic selling and robots buying the dips.

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BogleMelon » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:20 pm

saltycaper wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:18 pm
What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
What should I do now with all that popcorn that I had bought?!
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

sjwoo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sjwoo » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:20 pm

Goodbye, unrealized gains, it was nice knowing you!

Now I don't feel too stupid for holding those bond funds. Asset allocation, I love you. ;-)

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parsi1
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by parsi1 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:20 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:03 pm
Thinning out the herd I see ... pretty much everyone that overbought the market now running for the hills

Nothing has changed, economy and fundamentals are still good, people are dumb.
but the valuations and the market levels are not in line with the fundamental and the economy.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm

It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

scotthew
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scotthew » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:22 pm

That was fun...I think I witnessed about 4.5% drop in S&P thus far today.

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:23 pm

Well, I'm certainly not thinking about selling, but my HSA funds finally became available today and I'm unsure if I should DCA in coming days/weeks to take advantage of potential further declines or dump it all in right now. I know I should put it all in now -- time, not timing...

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:23 pm

scotthew wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:22 pm
That was fun...I think I witnessed about 4.5% drop in S&P thus far today.
S&P down about 3% as of now. Easy come, easy go...

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saltycaper
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm

BogleMelon wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:20 pm
saltycaper wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:18 pm
What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
What should I do now with all that popcorn that I had bought?!
Kernels?

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+make+corn+nuts

If pre-popped, save for next dip.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

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DartThrower
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DartThrower » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm

The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh... :oops:
A Boglehead can stay the course longer than the market can stay irrational.

Jim180
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jim180 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:25 pm

Did the market just realize here in Feb. that the Fed has been raising rates? They have been doing it for quite some time.

selters
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selters » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:25 pm

Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average

But is it a really bad day?

an_asker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by an_asker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:26 pm

bligh wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:58 pm
Dow is now down over over 790 points .. wow. Amazing to witness.
Let me put this in perspective for you. Don't know if you were around back then or not (I wasn't in the market!), but on a day in October, 1987, the Dow dropped over 20% in one day. Let me repeat - a drop of over 20% in one day.

Do you know how many points the Dow will have to drop today to equal that percentage? I would say about 5000 points or so! :oops:

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:27 pm

Damn, I was cheering for a 2,000 point drop.

Oh well, I'll wait until tomorrow.
Funding secured

an_asker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by an_asker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:27 pm

DartThrower wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm
The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh... :oops:
Yeah, let's blame it on Philadelphia ;-)

FootballFan5548
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FootballFan5548 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:27 pm

I bought a few grand worth 0.2% of my portfolio on Friday after that dip... I'm about to jump in for another $2k.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:27 pm

saltycaper wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:18 pm
What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Exactly my thinking. Too many people excited to buy on a dip (were they excited when these were the prices a few months ago?) I don’t see any real bears. Just bulls who want a bear to buy in on.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

awval999
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by awval999 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm

selters wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:25 pm
Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average

But is it a really bad day?
But it isn't the worst day ever.

an_asker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by an_asker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm

selters wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:25 pm
Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average

But is it a really bad day?
Nope. Not the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index. By any stretch of imagination.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:29 pm

Least I was able to do some dip buying on some of my favorite Divvy stocks, like Realty Income (O). > 5% yield at these levels so at least I can live off the Divvys.

awval999
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by awval999 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:29 pm

I mean it's just LOL hilarious. We are back at January 1st 2018 levels of valuation.

Stocks go up. Stocks go down. We have more to fall I'm sure. But 10 years, 20 years from now, this is just a blip.

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