Exactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, that has certainly been the pattern and a real knock on foreign stocks. When the markets are down they are all down together and when the markets are up, the U.S. market has been up the most. It seems nuts to invest internationally based on the data. But, as Buffett said: "diversification is protection against ignorance." Wonder why that wouldn't apply to diversifying internationally?parsi1 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:39 pmBut by the time we get to "isn't" the US market has out performed international significantly and when US drops the international drops as well.CULater wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:27 pmI have the strong feeling that this is correct, until it isn't. Problem is I don't know when we'll get to "isn't".parsi1 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:22 pm I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market.
So what is the point of having then in your portfolio?
No benefit in having international when the market is going up since US does better and no benefit in down turns since they lose more than US.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." -Mike Tyson
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Six figure portfolio reductions are no fun... but the run up seemed way overdone to me. I'm surprised this didn't happen sooner.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Why are you surprised? There is not one school of thought here, and all participants are human. Anyone, whether new or not, can suggest things or raise issues.Houe wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:46 pmExactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
Me, I say stay the course. But I'm inherently a pessimist/realist. My financial spreadsheet has magnitude of losses I'd suffer from declines of 10-70% in the value my stock holdings just to keep me realistic and aware of what might happen. And to be honest, until we give up more than a years gains how painful is it really? We are currently back around Jan 2 2018 S&P 500 values. Volatility is the price you pay for investing in risky assets like stocks, and mental "anchoring" to the highs does increase the feeling of pain. If you feel pain seeing the losses, well, look less.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Brutal out there the past few days.
We're close to early retirement so the timing is not great.
Kept telling myself to move more toward cash and FI, but never got around to it..
Thankfully still only around 55% equities overall..but still taking a pounding.
Just concerned this is the beginning of 2008 all over again - right as we're trying to get ready to retire..
We're close to early retirement so the timing is not great.
Kept telling myself to move more toward cash and FI, but never got around to it..
Thankfully still only around 55% equities overall..but still taking a pounding.
Just concerned this is the beginning of 2008 all over again - right as we're trying to get ready to retire..
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Dow is now down over over 790 points .. wow. Amazing to witness.
Last edited by bligh on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Herd mentality.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Thinning out the herd I see ... pretty much everyone that overbought the market now running for the hills
Nothing has changed, economy and fundamentals are still good, people are dumb.
Nothing has changed, economy and fundamentals are still good, people are dumb.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It is an absolute blood bath out there guys!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
EXACTLY! When we had the great jobs report on Friday, I actually thought the market would go up a few hundred points. Instead, it totally melted down and that's continuing today.
I know - fear of raising rates because the economy is too hot.
Seems like we've become totally detached from fundamentals, and the market is trading on fear and greed only at this point.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
900 points. Wow. I wish I had kept some cash to buy in right now.
Edit. 1000 point drop .. WOW! This is a proper panic isn't it? Will they cease trading?
Edit. 1000 point drop .. WOW! This is a proper panic isn't it? Will they cease trading?
Last edited by bligh on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yep, saying and doing are definitely different when doing means watching 5 or 6 figure paper losses show up in your balance. Imagine somebody near retirement who just saw an entire year's worth of living expenses seem to disappear, and wondering whether another year's worth will disappear next week.Houe wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:46 pmExactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
I admit I will no doubt start to feel regret if this current trend passes a 10% drop or even a 20% drop, but that's an emotional response. Rationally I know I could not have called the move with certainty. In fact, were I to have adopted the logic that a drop seems imminent and I should sell some of my portfolio and look for a later time to re-enter, I actually would probably have done so several months ago when the market was over 10% lower. Then I'd still have to call the right time to re-enter.
In other words, there's a good chance I would have done so too early and ended up in a worse position than just sticking out the cycle. I've done it before with my "play money" individual stock picks. That's a good lesson at a smaller dollar value than trying it with an entire portfolio.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Unless we think this signals the collapse of American capitalism, we should just disregard and stay the course. For all we know, the market could jump 500 points tomorrow on some seemingly arcane piece of news.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I agree. Other than 2003-2007: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D and 2009-2010: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D and 2017: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D, the US has generally gone up more than developed ex-US and emerging markets.parsi1 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:22 pm I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market.
So what is the point of having international in your portfolio?
No benefit in having international when the market is going up since US does better and no benefit in down turns since they lose more than US.
So in the last 15 years, international stocks have gone up more than US stocks in 8 or 9 years, barely over half. And really, if you started 15 years ago, developed ex-US only outperformed the first 8 years or so, and emerging only outperformed the US market the last 15 years. So the evidence is overwhelmingly on the side of US stocks being the greatest, safest, investments on the face of the earth. Period. End of story.
Last edited by asif408 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- mister_sparkle
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
1100.
edit: Make that 1550
edit: Make that 1550
Last edited by mister_sparkle on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wow.... we knew a day like this was coming....
Thank God for Wall Street Bets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Finally I will have the chance to test my risk tolerence!
(I wasn't in US around 2008)
(I wasn't in US around 2008)
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
now 1500+.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Back at Nov 2017 levels!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I would care less, but just did a small buy on S&P500 one week ago today in my taxable. But, it's all good. Can't time the market, but who the heck thought we'd be seeing a 1000 pt drop this week!?!?
Thank God for Wall Street Bets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I already checked my emotions at the door. I am well diversified (thanks to this forum) & can weather a bad storm.
Don't try to beat the market! Remember that tax bracket & taxes owed are big reasons to hold.
And......ITS GONE!
Don't try to beat the market! Remember that tax bracket & taxes owed are big reasons to hold.
And......ITS GONE!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I have been really bad/neglectful about a number of financial to-dos, including contributing to Roths this year and then handling a Roth version (which I should have done as soon as the tax year flipped to 2018, but oh well). Today has actually been a good day in that respect -- have been buying periodically throughout the day. C'est la vie.
- triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I saw VTI at -4.16% on my Apple stocks app. RBD?
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is 4 PM EST the trading deadline for today's valuations at Vanguard?
Thank God for Wall Street Bets.
- saltycaper
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
My limit orders from this morning already executed early on, but I might as well throw a little into my Roth IRA today. Good day to buy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Quite the volatility out there with people panic selling and robots buying the dips.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What should I do now with all that popcorn that I had bought?!saltycaper wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:18 pm What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Goodbye, unrealized gains, it was nice knowing you!
Now I don't feel too stupid for holding those bond funds. Asset allocation, I love you.
Now I don't feel too stupid for holding those bond funds. Asset allocation, I love you.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
but the valuations and the market levels are not in line with the fundamental and the economy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??
STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That was fun...I think I witnessed about 4.5% drop in S&P thus far today.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, I'm certainly not thinking about selling, but my HSA funds finally became available today and I'm unsure if I should DCA in coming days/weeks to take advantage of potential further declines or dump it all in right now. I know I should put it all in now -- time, not timing...
- saltycaper
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Kernels?BogleMelon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:20 pmWhat should I do now with all that popcorn that I had bought?!saltycaper wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:18 pm What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+make+corn+nuts
If pre-popped, save for next dip.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh...
After one has played a vast quantity of notes and more notes, it is simplicity that emerges as the crowning reward of art. Chopin
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Did the market just realize here in Feb. that the Fed has been raising rates? They have been doing it for quite some time.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
But is it a really bad day?
But is it a really bad day?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Let me put this in perspective for you. Don't know if you were around back then or not (I wasn't in the market!), but on a day in October, 1987, the Dow dropped over 20% in one day. Let me repeat - a drop of over 20% in one day.
Do you know how many points the Dow will have to drop today to equal that percentage? I would say about 5000 points or so!
- DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Damn, I was cheering for a 2,000 point drop.
Oh well, I'll wait until tomorrow.
Oh well, I'll wait until tomorrow.
Funding secured
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yeah, let's blame it on PhiladelphiaDartThrower wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:24 pm The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I bought a few grand worth 0.2% of my portfolio on Friday after that dip... I'm about to jump in for another $2k.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Exactly my thinking. Too many people excited to buy on a dip (were they excited when these were the prices a few months ago?) I don’t see any real bears. Just bulls who want a bear to buy in on.saltycaper wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:18 pm What a pathetic dip. We couldn't even maintain a 5% decline for more than a few minutes. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
But it isn't the worst day ever.selters wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:25 pm Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
But is it a really bad day?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Nope. Not the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index. By any stretch of imagination.selters wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:25 pm Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
But is it a really bad day?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Least I was able to do some dip buying on some of my favorite Divvy stocks, like Realty Income (O). > 5% yield at these levels so at least I can live off the Divvys.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I mean it's just LOL hilarious. We are back at January 1st 2018 levels of valuation.
Stocks go up. Stocks go down. We have more to fall I'm sure. But 10 years, 20 years from now, this is just a blip.
Stocks go up. Stocks go down. We have more to fall I'm sure. But 10 years, 20 years from now, this is just a blip.