U.S. stocks in free fall

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digarei
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by digarei » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:36 am

ImmigrantSaver wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:55 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:38 am
RBD today?
Good question. I have 2k to put in between now and the end of February (50/50 VXUS and VBR as I am underweight in both). Do I do it now or do I wait.. Decisions decisions..
Do it now.

In the long run, this won’t even be a blip. Even if the markets crash tomorrow.

I’ll be investing 25 times that amount next week. I don’t plan to check the market before investing it per my asset allocation. There are others who participate on this forum who are in a position to invest many hundreds of thousands and will do likewise. And a few pension plans who may need to invest hundreds of millions in the market. The amount has no great bearing on the wisdom of investing.

If you wait, and the market goes up, will you be sorry?
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azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:38 am

thangngo wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:27 am
On a day like this, some people will see their portfolio lose in value similar to the cost of a luxury European car.
The only one day market loss in history that could have the chance of matching or exceeding what you would lose driving a new European luxury car off of a dealer lot would be the one that occurred on 10/19/1987.

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:44 am

I bought VSS and VGIT today. Foreign stocks fell more.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

ImmigrantSaver
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ImmigrantSaver » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:55 am

digarei wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:36 am
ImmigrantSaver wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:55 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:38 am
RBD today?
Good question. I have 2k to put in between now and the end of February (50/50 VXUS and VBR as I am underweight in both). Do I do it now or do I wait.. Decisions decisions..
Do it now.

In the long run, this won’t even be a blip. Even if the markets crash tomorrow.

I’ll be investing 25 times that amount next week. I don’t plan to check the market before investing it per my asset allocation. There are others who participate on this forum who are in a position to invest many hundreds of thousands and will do likewise. And a few pension plans who may need to invest hundreds of millions in the market. The amount has no great bearing on the wisdom of investing.

If you wait, and the market goes up, will you be sorry?
Funny, I noticed I don't feel sorry when that happens. But on the other hand, I have hard time buying on an up day and end up buying on the first down day (even if net price is higher). Some weirdly selective behavior bias I am trying to battle.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:56 am

"This is it! I'm tell ya'll this is it!"
Image


I'm right here buying the dip... quietly.

Slothmeister
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Slothmeister » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:11 pm

I'm glad I'm not playing the buy and sell stock game. Then again. If the S&P goes back to 2250, it might be time to load up on more index funds.

azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:12 pm

thangngo wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:56 am
"This is it! I'm tell ya'll this is it!"
This. I called the top as last Friday. So far I'm still right. :mrgreen:

mffl
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mffl » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:37 pm

So, today is one of those interesting days where the market drops pretty substantially... apparently on ostensibly good news (the jobs report).

My take on it is this. Some of the other drops this week may be for other reasons, but I think today has a very particular quality about it. The S&P drops about 1% on a better than average jobs report. Why's that? Well, now the market "fears" a higher probability of an extra rate hike this year. Perhaps 4 of them rather than 3. But one of the implications of another rate hike would be both lower inflation than would have otherwise been expected, AND a stronger dollar given the higher rate. So in effect, a day like today where the market is "down" 1%, it's really flat in real terms. Look what else is down very close to 1%. Crude oil. Gold. Yen. Pounds. The Euro, though not quite as much. What we're seeing is the effect of the anticipation of the dollar increasing in strength and expected inflation decreasing. Yes, you're down 1% today, but this isn't one of those "oh no, bad earnings reports, bad jobs report, etc." types of declines. Your investments are simply reflecting the fact that they're now denominated in a stronger currency.

There's more to it than just this, but I think this does explain a significant portion of today's decline. The financial press uses the words "likes" or "dislikes" when referring to the market and things that push the nominal value of the market up or down. I mean, 10% inflation or adding a zero to the end of the USD would result in a "higher" Dow in nominal terms, but that doesn't mean that the markets "like" it, any more than the markets "dislike" what's going on today. Of course the strength of the dollar itself has other effects, but I generally feel a stronger dollar is a good thing, and any "bad" effects are just wealth reshuffling amongst companies which we own a portion of all of them anyway as good Bogleheads, so the bad effects are offset. Anyway today you own less of a more valuable thing. Today is probably roughly neutral net/net.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:40 pm

Lucky for me, I sold some yesterday, Vanguard didn’t let me exchange to another fund. So I had cash and took a nibbling this morning. Not too much, just in case, it might fall more. I have done a few buying low and selling higher this week. It dulled the pain of 740 points drop on the rest.

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:44 pm

It goes down a lot faster than it goes up. Guess that's why they call it free falling and not free rising. Force of gravity.... :x
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BogleBoogie » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:48 pm

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:40 pm
Lucky for me, I sold some yesterday, Vanguard didn’t let me exchange to another fund. So I had cash and took a nibbling this morning. Not too much, just in case, it might fall more. I have done a few buying low and selling higher this week. It dulled the pain of 740 points drop on the rest.
Yes, very lucky. This is the type of luck that will change your future.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:49 pm

BogleBoogie wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:48 pm
DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:40 pm
Lucky for me, I sold some yesterday, Vanguard didn’t let me exchange to another fund. So I had cash and took a nibbling this morning. Not too much, just in case, it might fall more. I have done a few buying low and selling higher this week. It dulled the pain of 740 points drop on the rest.
Yes, very lucky. This is the type of luck that will change your future.
Who knows, I take any luck I can get.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:02 pm

PugetSoundguy wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 am
At least the federal Thrift Savings Plan G-fund rate went up to 2.75% today (up from January rate of 2.375%).
I saw that! I think might be the highest rate in 4 or 5 years?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

jrbdmb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jrbdmb » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:20 pm

Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive?

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:28 pm

triceratop wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:44 am
I bought VSS and VGIT today. Foreign stocks fell more.
Quite surprised with emerging markets resisting to drop as much as developed international.
vwo 1.3%
vss 1.7%

Need to see atleast 15% drop/PE under 20 for me to re-balance 5% from bonds to stocks. However today is paycheck time for 401k :)
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:55 pm

jrbdmb wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:20 pm
Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive?
I doubt that very much.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:00 pm

jrbdmb wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:20 pm
Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive?
I plan on watching Cramer tonight, so I can let you know what it was by tomorrow. He usually knows.

nolesrule
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nolesrule » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:03 pm

It's my fault. Yesterday I invested the second half of our 2018 backdoor Roth IRA contributions, our taxable account investments for February and started UTMA brokerage accounts for both my kids.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:06 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:38 am
RBD today?
By definition, Fridays are excluded from being bona fide livesoft RBDs.

That doesn't mean you are not allowed to buy equities today if you want to.
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CoAndy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CoAndy » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:08 pm

MysticalMoose wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:49 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:35 pm
thangngo wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:13 pm
Bacchus01 wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:47 pm
My 401K contribution goes in tomorrow. This is awesome news!
If it's troubled water ahead, just be careful what you wish for.

Nope, not worried. Stay the course. I have a 50-year horizon.

If it dropped 50% tomorrow and I lost my job, we’d still be fine for years.
I'm admittedly a total novice, but I don't understand the long-term perspective when it comes to stocks. My 401k is about 50 years out but I have doubts about its eventual usefulness. My city (and many major coastal cities, most of which are financial centers) are projected to be dealing with bad flooding due to climate change right around the time I'm supposed to retire. Even if I accumulate 5 decades of compound interest, will I be able to cash out when I need to if it happens to overlap with many of the world's financial centers literally being underwater?

Bogle's philosophy makes sense to me for the world we currently live in. But it feels like there are so many indications that that world will change. How do you take the long-view in investment strategy when you half-expect the underlying assumptions about the world and the economy to no longer be relevant when confronted with the consequences of global climate change and automation being able to outperform humans at most jobs?
Where would people be today if they believed in this hysteria?
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/20 ... -from.html

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:13 pm

livesoft wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:06 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:38 am
RBD today?
By definition, Fridays are excluded from being bona fide livesoft RBDs.

That doesn't mean you are not allowed to buy equities today if you want to.
Fridays are ho-hum, and livesoft RBDs will have to be adjusted after markets are open 24/7 in future decades. So I bought. I got pretty lucky with VSS @ 122.41. However someone else was much luckier as it plummetted to 122.26 just as my order was filled. VSS traded mostly higher today.

I bought VGIT at 62.59 which is also great but not the best.

Hopefully stocks and bonds both crash some more.

edit: VSS is now substantially lower than what I paid for it. I look like an idiot.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:14 pm

CoAndy wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:08 pm
Where would people be today if they believed in this hysteria?
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/20 ... -from.html
While I'm not directing this specifically at that site since that would be off-topic, it is indeed interesting to see how often people thrive on fear. Being fearful seems built into human DNA. While it can be helpful in some instances, when it comes to investing, it's far more harmful than helpful. As the book says, the optimists have triumphed so far in a big way.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:18 pm

buddy who works on Wall Street ... He says his entire office is laughing at this “sell off” and buying as much as possible

“We’re still up for 2018 and people are freaking out over interest rates - which we knew were going up. It’s insane.”

Stay the course - or buy more. Happy Friday

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm

Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.

fantasytensai
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fantasytensai » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:23 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
More people are selling than are buying.

If you are asking why people are behaving the way they are behaving, then I do not know, and I do not trust anyone that says they know.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:23 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
Join the club. :beer
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

jrbdmb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jrbdmb » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:27 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:18 pm
buddy who works on Wall Street ... He says his entire office is laughing at this “sell off” and buying as much as possible

“We’re still up for 2018 and people are freaking out over interest rates - which we knew were going up. It’s insane.”

Stay the course - or buy more. Happy Friday
How long has your buddy been working on Wall Street? I ask because eventually the market isn't going to immediately snap back after a selloff. Just looking at recent history, the highs of October 2007 were not seen again until 2013.

But in any event, stay the course, because nobody knows 'nuttin. :happy

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:30 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
Inflation

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:32 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
If I have to guess :
Inflation expectations are going wayy up(tight market, wages, jobs, tax cuts). =>
Bond yields needed are going up(Wages, deficit)

Consider what P/E represents for a minute. With a forward P/E of 20, we are paying 20 bucks for a dollar of earnings. 5%. If forward inflation is 3.5%, would I rather do 3.5% in bonds or take a whole lot of risk for extra 1% yield ? As always, I know nothing and have been wrong several times.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:35 pm

I was going to TLH.

But then I realized it has to drop another 5-6% before I have anything that shows a loss. My last buy was 12/8/2017.

This is nothing. Literally. Nothing.

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Blister
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Blister » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:36 pm

Lbill wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:30 pm
DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?

This was the first post on this thread. 2011 :beer
Everthing works out in the end. If it doesn't then its not the end.

Gufomel
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Gufomel » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:37 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:32 pm
Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
If I have to guess :
Inflation expectations are going wayy up(tight market, wages, jobs, tax cuts). =>
Bond yields needed are going up(Wages, deficit)

Consider what P/E represents for a minute. With a forward P/E of 20, we are paying 20 bucks for a dollar of earnings. 5%. If forward inflation is 3.5%, would I rather do 3.5% in bonds or take a whole lot of risk for extra 1% yield ? As always, I know nothing and have been wrong several times.
I understood mffl above to be saying that the market decline today may be partly related to lower than expected inflation. You seem to be saying it's related to higher than expected inflation.

Are y'all saying that same thing and I'm just misunderstanding, or the opposite (that's fine if so, just trying to understand)?

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:39 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
Just wait and you'll hear some really good stories explaining it all. Many of the people telling stories won't know any better than you do, but they're paid to tell stories so they will perform on command. One or more of them may even be non-fiction....

I'm going to go with we just had a Red Blue Moon.

deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:43 pm

Man, I have missed the DOW down 2-3% days. Feb 2016 seems to be the last time around. Been a while.

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:45 pm

Gufomel wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:37 pm
ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:32 pm
Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
If I have to guess :
Inflation expectations are going wayy up(tight market, wages, jobs, tax cuts). =>
Bond yields needed are going up(Wages, deficit)

Consider what P/E represents for a minute. With a forward P/E of 20, we are paying 20 bucks for a dollar of earnings. 5%. If forward inflation is 3.5%, would I rather do 3.5% in bonds or take a whole lot of risk for extra 1% yield ? As always, I know nothing and have been wrong several times.
I understood mffl above to be saying that the market decline today may be partly related to lower than expected inflation. You seem to be saying it's related to higher than expected inflation.

Are y'all saying that same thing and I'm just misunderstanding, or the opposite (that's fine if so, just trying to understand)?
I did not understand his post. Why would fed raise rates 4 times instead of 3 because of lower inflation. Isn't raising rates one of the tools to control inflation?

Also, as a preamble, it is a bit premature/useless to rationalize a single day drop...The inflation expectation will play out over next few months. Also the growth from the cash reparation, expected investments from different companies, corporate tax slashing will also try to raise the earnings. No one can predict what the end result on market will be and what will the end outcome of these.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:46 pm

fantasytensai wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:23 pm
Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
More people are selling than are buying.

If you are asking why people are behaving the way they are behaving, then I do not know, and I do not trust anyone that says they know.
:confused That would suggest that large investors are buying and small investors are selling. Not sure I see the connection to the market falling.

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Epsilon Delta
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Epsilon Delta » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:48 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall?
No.

Will anyone ever know the reason for the fall?
No.

Will that stop anyone from talking?
No.

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:49 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
Reasons are generally guesses unless there is a dramatic obvious event. WSJ blames inflation fears. They don't mention that gold is also down, which you'd think it would be up if there were "inflation fears" driving things. I personally think a few people had bad burritos at Chipotles. It is as good an explanation as any I've read.

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fishandgolf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:52 pm

...........It's a Groundhog Day Sale............ :happy

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:52 pm

Blister wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:36 pm
Lbill wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:30 pm
DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?

This was the first post on this thread. 2011 :beer
Looks like we just hit a 550 point loss today with an hour of trading left. It is a smaller drop in percentage terms though.

Gufomel
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Gufomel » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:56 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:45 pm
Gufomel wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:37 pm
ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:32 pm
Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
If I have to guess :
Inflation expectations are going wayy up(tight market, wages, jobs, tax cuts). =>
Bond yields needed are going up(Wages, deficit)

Consider what P/E represents for a minute. With a forward P/E of 20, we are paying 20 bucks for a dollar of earnings. 5%. If forward inflation is 3.5%, would I rather do 3.5% in bonds or take a whole lot of risk for extra 1% yield ? As always, I know nothing and have been wrong several times.
I understood mffl above to be saying that the market decline today may be partly related to lower than expected inflation. You seem to be saying it's related to higher than expected inflation.

Are y'all saying that same thing and I'm just misunderstanding, or the opposite (that's fine if so, just trying to understand)?
I did not understand his post. Why would fed raise rates 4 times instead of 3 because of lower inflation. Isn't raising rates one of the tools to control inflation?

Also, as a preamble, it is a bit premature/useless to rationalize a single day drop...The inflation expectation will play out over next few months. Also the growth from the cash reparation, expected investments from different companies, corporate tax slashing will also try to raise the earnings. No one can predict what the end result on market will be and what will the end outcome of these.
I think what he was saying is that there is higher expectation now that the fed will increase rates, which would lower inflation (not that they would increase rates because of lower inflation).

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:58 pm

Its a blood bath out there!

"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." - Baron Rothschild
Last edited by Houe on Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:59 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:58 pm
Its a blood bath out there!
How so?

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:01 pm

BLACK FRIDAY!!!!!! STUFF ARE ON FIRE SALE!!!

Too soon?

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SquawkIdent
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SquawkIdent » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:01 pm

Is this the longest thread ever? :sharebeer

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:01 pm

fishandgolf wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:52 pm
...........It's a Groundhog Day Sale............ :happy
+1 The market always tanks when Phil sees his shadow. It has happened the last 17 or 17 times. That rodent needs to be stopped!

Image

(Statistics as fictional as the explanation)

chicagoan23
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chicagoan23 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:03 pm

Faisal wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Anybody know the reason for the fall? I am confused as the US economy is growing, the job market is tight, earnings are decent and the world economy seems to be picking up.

Internationally Oil prices are increasing as is demand, there is no real war that can or may break out. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all factored in.

I am confused.
The stock market gods decided that we all deserve a break, and gave us a 3% off sale on stocks. Take advantage!

minesweep
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minesweep » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:03 pm

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today and is predicting 6 more weeks of stock market correction. Time will tell weather :happy or not he is right.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:05 pm

Its accelerating downward into the market close. Now -600 for the DOW.

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eye.surgeon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by eye.surgeon » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:08 pm

I doubled my regular monthly purchase of VTSAX (total stock market) on the big drop today. Be greedy when others are scared.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

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