U.S. stocks in freefall

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:47 pm

roflwaffle wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:22 pm
Does anyone publish currency weighted (I think?) versions of major indices? For instance, if the S&P 500 is up 2% since January first, but the dollar compared to some basket of currencies is down 10%, would that represent a currency weighted 8% decline?
If you use Morningstar you can select in which currency you want to see a growth chart in the upper right hand corner of the chart
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grabiner
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:52 pm

roflwaffle wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:22 pm
Does anyone publish currency weighted (I think?) versions of major indices? For instance, if the S&P 500 is up 2% since January first, but the dollar compared to some basket of currencies is down 10%, would that represent a currency weighted 8% decline?
Most investors care about only one currency. If the S&P 500 is up 2% but the dollar falls 10% against the euro, then US investors in the S&P gained 2% and European investors lost 8%.

Converting to a basket of currencies would only make sense for economic analysis. If the world stock markets went up by 2% in the world average currencies, that says something about the world economy. Meanwhile, Americans with a globally diversified portfolio could be better off and Europeans worse off because the dollar fell against the euro.
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Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm

Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:26 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
Or tax loss harvesting - I doubt Bogleheads lost any money this year but I'm guessing some people lost money...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:28 pm

Profit-taking, perhaps?
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:31 pm

Rational non-exuberance?

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:39 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I would not read too much into today's stock market action. Probably a lot of traders went home early for the holiday weekend.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:43 pm

I should know better by now, but when I saw that comment I thought “wow! What could be happening today?” only to learn that there’s a decline of like half a percent.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GeraniumLover » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:51 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:28 pm
Profit-taking, perhaps?
Why take profits in 2017 when 2018 tax rates are lower?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:52 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
Damn, I *knew* I should have sold everything today !!!! :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FIREchief » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:36 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
Sweet!!!!! Perfect timing between my DAF contribution of appreciated shares earlier this week and my Roth conversion next Tuesday. I'll take another minus 2 percent (or more) on Tuesday, PLEASE!
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by quantAndHold » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:24 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
This would be my brother. Every. Single. Year.

Me: “Dude, you take your RMD yet?”
Him: “Awww. <expletive!> Now I’m gonna be on the phone all morning.”

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jhfenton » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:40 pm

I also finished out the year on a down note, losing 0.08% overall today on the portfolio from Thursday's fifth-straight daily all-time high, with losses on U.S. stocks overtaking significant gains on international stocks in the final minutes of the year. For most of the day, I was up 25-40 bp.

The end-of-the-day drop undoubtedly foreshadows doom in 2018. I should have sold it all at 3:30 PM to preserve the daily winning streak. :oops:

But on a positive note, my wife finally got a permanent job offer from the company she's been working for through a staffing company since July. She'll be 401(k) eligible after 3 months (from her start in a week). So if the market does drop, we'll be able to invest more at better prices. :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Silk McCue » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:52 pm

GeraniumLover wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:51 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:28 pm
Profit-taking, perhaps?
Why take profits in 2017 when 2018 tax rates are lower?
Possibly some available headroom in a marginal bracket that may not be there next year due to anticipated increased income.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FedGuy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:56 pm

GeraniumLover wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:51 pm
Why take profits in 2017 when 2018 tax rates are lower?
I don't ask my friends and colleagues about their financial status, but I'm pretty sure most of them are getting an effective tax increase due to the new limits on deducting state taxes.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:13 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:24 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
This would be my brother. Every. Single. Year.

Me: “Dude, you take your RMD yet?”
Him: “Awww. <expletive!> Now I’m gonna be on the phone all morning.”
LOL!

And, I presume like a good brother, you call to remind him about his RMD on the last trading day of every. single. year? :twisted:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:27 am

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
WOW.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) down 0.54% :!:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:57 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:26 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
Or tax loss harvesting - I doubt Bogleheads lost any money this year but I'm guessing some people lost money...
My uncle lost money this year. I found out at the family christmas gathering. He is in his late 50s or early 60s and I asked him if he had a timeline to retirement. He said he wasn't sure since his stocks didn't do so well. I said, didn't stocks go up like 20% this year? He said yeah but his didn't do so well, but he avoided "the slump" last year (?). And that he would have made more money if he'd had the time but missed "a few money making opportunities". Not sure which guru he is listening to to buy and sell, I didn't ask him any more about it. Just told him that's why I just invest in the total stock market with index funds and left it at that. However, I doubt he knows much about tax loss harvesting so he's probably not influencing those numbers at all. I think I'm probably obnoxious enough without telling relatives 30 years older than me that they are making poor financial decisions. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:12 pm

Nobody knows nothing

Dow points gained since the original post: 14486

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorNewb » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:17 pm

It's hard to believe the total stock market index (VTI) ETF closed today at $140.37. I still remember buying into it in 2013 in the high $70 range -- thinking it was "expensive" back then. :sharebeer
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by investingdad » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:24 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:57 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:26 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
Or tax loss harvesting - I doubt Bogleheads lost any money this year but I'm guessing some people lost money...
My uncle lost money this year. I found out at the family christmas gathering. He is in his late 50s or early 60s and I asked him if he had a timeline to retirement. He said he wasn't sure since his stocks didn't do so well. I said, didn't stocks go up like 20% this year? He said yeah but his didn't do so well, but he avoided "the slump" last year (?). And that he would have made more money if he'd had the time but missed "a few money making opportunities". Not sure which guru he is listening to to buy and sell, I didn't ask him any more about it. Just told him that's why I just invest in the total stock market with index funds and left it at that. However, I doubt he knows much about tax loss harvesting so he's probably not influencing those numbers at all. I think I'm probably obnoxious enough without telling relatives 30 years older than me that they are making poor financial decisions. :twisted:
Like the in-law of mine that is waiting to see if a stock is going to split so he can buy it cheap? I thought I was past hearing statements like that, but I guess not.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:26 pm

VT is up nearly 3%, and it was a short week!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:12 am

Market is worried china will stop buying treasury notes. I'm wondering if I should reconsider my 100% US stocks and add some international.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:36 am

Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:12 am
Market is worried china will stop buying treasury notes. I'm wondering if I should reconsider my 100% US stocks and add some international.
Could use the same argument to buy even more US stocks. If they're not buying Treasuries, what are they going to buy?
The U.S. runs huge trade deficit, they have to do something with surplus U.S. dollars.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:44 am

Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:12 am
Market is worried china will stop buying treasury notes. I'm wondering if I should reconsider my 100% US stocks and add some international.
You should’ve reconsidered that awhile ago

Why would you limit future gains to 1 country ?

Houe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:51 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:44 am
Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:12 am
Market is worried china will stop buying treasury notes. I'm wondering if I should reconsider my 100% US stocks and add some international.
You should’ve reconsidered that awhile ago

Why would you limit future gains to 1 country ?
I didn't feel like I understood the foreign markets well enough to invest.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:34 pm

Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:51 pm
I didn't feel like I understood the foreign markets well enough to invest.
No worries, we'll help you work through it. (Consider that you may not need to do anything, it depends on what you have now.)

In order to give appropriate advice, it's best to keep all the information in one spot. I just merged your two 401(k) question threads together: 401k options [Which funds to choose?] You're asking about a 401(k), but we need that info (and replies) to help you with the rest of the portfolio.

Some helpful reading: Getting started

If you have any questions on what to do, or don't understand something, by all means bump that thread and ask - that's what we're here for.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:43 pm

Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:51 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:44 am
Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:12 am
Market is worried china will stop buying treasury notes. I'm wondering if I should reconsider my 100% US stocks and add some international.
You should’ve reconsidered that awhile ago

Why would you limit future gains to 1 country ?
I didn't feel like I understood the foreign markets well enough to invest.
TOTAL US admiral shares + TOTAL INT'L admiral shares - choose a US/Int'l Allocation (60/40, 50/50, 70,30, etc.) and feed whichever fund needs it in order to maintain that allocation you choose ... own shares of 10K companies

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Houe » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:47 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:34 pm
Houe wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:51 pm
I didn't feel like I understood the foreign markets well enough to invest.
No worries, we'll help you work through it. (Consider that you may not need to do anything, it depends on what you have now.)

In order to give appropriate advice, it's best to keep all the information in one spot. I just merged your two 401(k) question threads together: 401k options [Which funds to choose?] You're asking about a 401(k), but we need that info (and replies) to help you with the rest of the portfolio.

Some helpful reading: Getting started

If you have any questions on what to do, or don't understand something, by all means bump that thread and ask - that's what we're here for.
Thanks LadyGeek. I'll probably make a post to my 401k thread with an updated status/progress report in the next day or two.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:23 am

OK, back on track, folks...

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:04 am

A bear?

How can that be?

The Lowest Rated Fund (my boring portfolio) was UP today!

Not kidding.

Good luck, and thanks for reading ~cfs~
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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FIREchief » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:32 am

cfs wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:04 am
A bear?

How can that be?
Absolutely a bear. The market only went up like 3% so far this year. That said, it DROPPED .11% yesterday. Yikes!!! Panic time!! How can the market drop like that? Doesn't the market know that the tax cut is jucing corporate profits? There must be some other sinister factors afloat here. I'm pulling out immediately. How could I sleep otherwise? :confused
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Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:35 am

REIT down over a percent today. Guess when I rebalanced and bought some a few weeks ago was too soon, oh well :beer
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:56 am

Engineer250 wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:35 am
REIT down over a percent today. Guess when I rebalanced and bought some a few weeks ago was too soon, oh well :beer
I think you mean "yesterday" based on the time stamp of your post. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:41 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:56 am
Engineer250 wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:35 am
REIT down over a percent today. Guess when I rebalanced and bought some a few weeks ago was too soon, oh well :beer
I think you mean "yesterday" based on the time stamp of your post. :)
Yes :oops:

Something-something time difference market opens *cough*
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facepalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by facepalm » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm

Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:26 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:08 pm
Houe wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Last day of trading for 2017 and stocks are accelerating downward.
I wonder if tax/RMD situations play a role in a 'January Effect' at the end of the year.
Or tax loss harvesting - I doubt Bogleheads lost any money this year but I'm guessing some people lost money...
I had a short term loss of a few hundred bucks in my taxable account, and knew I was going to be funding my ROTH for 2018 out of that account, so I had one sale with a short term gain that covered the loss. I was going to sell the fund anyway (I had bought SCHD [Schwab US dividend equity ETF] on a whim, and needed to sell anyway--no sense in having dividends in a taxable account. So I guess I did some tax loss harvesting. I'm sure one of you will point out a better way to have handled the sale. :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Whakamole » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:53 pm

Is it time to panic yet?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:54 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:53 pm
Is it time to panic yet?
if panic = buy .... then maybe ?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by goodenyou » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:57 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:53 pm
Is it time to panic yet?
Yes. There is a time when panic is the appropriate response. Go for it.
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jeg208
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jeg208 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:05 pm

Finished my 6 month DCA today thanks to the little drop (if you could call it a drop... maybe just a leveling of almost 4%ytd gains...)

If you are ever considering a DCA vs lump sum, do lump sum. You will regret DCA if the market goes up (missed gains), and you will regret lump sum if the market goes down. Now what are the odds of you investing a lump sum the DAY before a bear? Significantly less likely than DCAing over a market gain. Come correction time, if you DCA, you will likely have less growth to absorb the blow than if you would have lump sum'd on day one.

Oh well, still out performed my old financial adviser by almost 5% in 2017, even with almost 30% in cash :D
Last edited by jeg208 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:07 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:53 pm
Is it time to panic yet?
:) Have to love the new sense of market 'volatility' when people are panicking on a day when a new all-time high is set.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:20 pm

The time to panic is when all about you are losing their heads. Or something like that.
All good things must end.
This too shall pass.
Tomorrow is another day.
Buy low; sell high.
You'll never go broke taking a profit.
Bulls can make money. Bears can make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

I'm sure there is a wise old saying that will be applicable for today. However, it may take a year or more to know which best applies.
In the meantime, I'm going to get a good night's sleep tonight.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by itstoomuch » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:39 pm

Clock radio awoke me with a +290 on Dow. I didnt sleep well last night with multiple leg cramps and got up very late.
Very interesting day. One of my 2018 resolutions is to trade more often in the Discretionary Acct. Its been a very positive day :wink: . I am out of my most speculative holding :) with 2 profitable round trips :twisted:
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Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:11 pm

Guess the stock market was really troubled by the impending government shutdown today. Oh wait never mind. :twisted:
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:48 pm

S&P 500 down 28%! It's a blood bath!

[Edit] Oh! That's 0.28%.

UKFred
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by UKFred » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:52 pm

sreynard wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:48 pm
S&P 500 down 28%! It's a blood bath!

[Edit] Oh! That's 0.28%.
28% would be a bloodbath!

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:58 pm

sreynard wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:48 pm
S&P 500 down 28%! It's a blood bath!
Personally, I would love to see a 28% drop in the S&P500.

No doubt, it'll happen someday. Wonder if I'll live to see it?
Funding secured

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:42 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:58 pm
sreynard wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:48 pm
S&P 500 down 28%! It's a blood bath!
Personally, I would love to see a 28% drop in the S&P500.

No doubt, it'll happen someday. Wonder if I'll live to see it?
Was just thinking the same thing the other day. Wishing for another 40% drop. As long as I don't lose my job of course!

Quicken says I made a 0.02% gain today! That's practically free falling isn't it?

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:57 pm

sreynard wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:42 pm
Was just thinking the same thing the other day. Wishing for another 40% drop. As long as I don't lose my job of course!
A 40% drop would take the S&P 500's Shiller PE down from a crazy-high 34 to a much more reasonable 20. I could see it happening.

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