U.S. stocks in freefall

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gkaplan » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:43 pm

No, it does not.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by YDNAL » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:53 pm

Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?

Nah!!!

579.86 ÷ 15,318.23 = 3.785%

Code: Select all

Date     Value      Daily change
06/20/13 14,738.34 -373.82 (currently)
06/19/13 15,112.19 -206.04
06/18/13 15,318.23  138.38
06/17/13 15,179.85  109.67
06/14/13 15,070.18 -105.90
06/13/13 15,176.08  180.85
12/31/12 13,104.14  ---

It is actually 2.884% down from 7 calendar days ago; and about +12.5% from end-2012.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hsv_climber » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:20 pm

VNQ (REIT) was in free fall today. Together with EM, Pacific markets and international REITs.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:24 pm

Perhaps we need a common definition. Here's one possibility:

free fall - a sudden sharp decrease in some quantity.

This definition encompasses both time and magnitude; e.g., a 3.8% drop in the DOW index occurring over a period of 2 months might not qualify, but a 3.8% drop in 2 days might. Perhaps, at least we should consider getting a memo ready.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TimesAWastin » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:33 pm

In other forums, resurrecting old threads is frowned upon. I think it's a great tool for this forum. I've learned so much by reading what people actually had to say in, say, late 2008 until March 2009, or in 2012 when there was a dip, etc. :-) Being able to see what people were actually saying/thinking when they had no idea what would happen tomorrow.. it's so easy to look at historical data, but not so easy to put it into context.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jay69 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:43 pm

^
^
^
I agree, + it keeps the thread count down of the sky is falling type of threads. It maybe time to start a common bond falling thread :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zotty » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:47 pm

hsv_climber wrote:VNQ (REIT) was in free fall today. Together with EM, Pacific markets and international REITs.


TISM had an RBD too. International stocks: diversify yourself against high returns. :(
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:58 pm

Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?
If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"

Let's look at the latest chart... now, where did I put my glasses...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by umfundi » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:02 pm

nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
I believe Bogleheads are buckled in.

Could you please post the chart for 14, 15, ... Blurry is fine.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by core5 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:05 pm

umfundi wrote:
nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"
I believe Bogleheads are buckled in.

Keith


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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:16 pm

Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that? :wink:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bertilak » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:50 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Browser wrote:Does nearly 600 points off the DOW in two days qualify as "freefall"?
If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"

Let's look at the latest chart... now, where did I put my glasses...

They're pinned to the ceiling. Only 14,648 feet to go!

(Yes, I know, that wouldn't happen in freefall but I like the image. I include screaming passengers!)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ged » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:52 pm

nisiprius wrote:If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"


If the rate of fall is 32.174 ft/sec^2, yes. :D

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:44 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that? :wink:

Rick Ferri



Stop putting things in perspective :oops:

This thread is about running for the hills to avoid the doom!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:14 pm

If an airplane flying at 15,248 feet suddenly experiences a loss of 600 feet of altitude, does that qualify as "freefall?"

Only if that mountain peak you were hoping to clear is at 14,649 feet. :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Spades » Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:37 pm

ofcmetz wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:Darn! My US total stock market index fund is only up 12% for the year now. How can I live on that? :wink:

Rick Ferri



Stop putting things in perspective :oops:

This thread is about running for the hills to avoid the doom!


+1 for both of y'all

:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:15 am

Jim Cramer is saying to sit out the market for a week or so because its that uncertain and that bad. S&P 500 went down 1.25% yesterday. Gold is going back up in value. Miley Cyrus has become a ???. Is this the end for stocks? :beer

Just a reminder to everyone to follow their plan no matter what Cyrus has or does not have on.

Edit: Seems it was just a yesterday freefall. False alarm, sorry. :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by floydtime » Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:23 pm

Trader007 wrote:<Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:38 am>Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later.

I wonder when this guy is going to come back and give us more specifics? :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:00 am

The sky is falling!

It's an RBD, etc, etc.

Or, maybe not.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:42 am

We are getting snow in south Louisiana right now. That has to be some kind of stock market omen.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by YDNAL » Fri Jan 24, 2014 6:17 am

ofcmetz wrote:We are getting snow in south Louisiana right now. That has to be some kind of stock market omen.

I was wearing a long-sleeve PJ and a sweater inside the house -- this is South Florida, you know! And, I'm headed North. :oops:

Lbill [OP] » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:30 pm

DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?

The Dow was at about 11,450 in August 2011 when this thread was initiated by Lbill. Fourteen pages of posts later, the Dow is currently at 16,197.35. It should be a good lesson for anyone with any sort of investing timeframe longer than a couple of days, or months, or years.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 24, 2014 7:30 am

Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing. Some are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains. We are getting increasing numbers of "100% stocks" postings from people who are confident they are risk tolerant and would never sell in a downturn, even when I point out that experienced and well-informed people, including professional wealth managers, did.

Image

I wasn't seriously close to taking any actions in 2011, but I was certainly jittery when Lbill started this thread. Now, I remember in 2008, I was hiking with some friends in Oregon, and (I am proud to say) was in a period of time when I was not paying a lot of attention to the stock market. And she says something to me about being worried about the stock market. And I laughed, and said, "Oh, I don't know, it fluctuates, I don't pay much attention, as long as it stays in the 12,000s." And she gives me a look, and says "It's down to 11,000." And it stayed there for a month or so, and then we all know what happened.

These are my points: first, 2011 did not look any different from the lurch in 2008 that preceded the big dive. In 2011, it would have been a serious mistake to say "Uh-oh, here we go again" and exit the market. But it was completely rational to feel jittery. It was completely rational to wonder if this was 2008 all over again.

If you cannot remember feeling jittery in 2011, then I would check your memories to be sure you are really risk-tolerant and that you haven't just edited out feelings you are now ashamed of having felt.

And while I have no idea what's ahead for the stock market--someone mentioned to me in an email that Bloomberg has used the word "contagion" in emerging markets, sigh... I'm pretty sure that something that will happen in the next couple of years or so is that we will get another sickening downward lurch like the one in 2008 and the one in 2011, and we won't know about that one, either.

Image
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by YDNAL » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:09 am

nisiprius wrote:Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing.

What do you "think I'm drawing"?...
- That Stocks are risky and we should hope for compensation over time ?
- That with any timeframe longer than 2 days, 2 months, 2 years, we should look ahead towards the long-term ?

Then you "thought" correctly.

nisiprius wrote:We are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains.

Are you "starting to forget" ? Otherwise, I wouldn't use "we."
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jimkinny » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:19 am

If I recall correctly, without wading through the 14 pages of this thread, the 2011 downturn was presumably caused by the Eurozone. No one knew at the time that it would be the ECB that calmed the waters eventually and no one now knows what the eventual outcome will be.

I read again this morning rumblings and rumors on the "shadow" banking system in China. For the last several months or maybe a year or so, there seems to be a lot of interest in China's data or maybe more accurately the lack of good data. This may eventually blow up and we will have our next crisis emanating from China. Maybe not.

What we do know is that we will have another downward lurch in equities and it will seem as if things are in free fall. We will have a lot posts about how some intrepid Boglehead rebalanced today, yesterday or last week.

Maybe, if the downturn last several years, we can read how the stock market really was in free fall and we should have known it all along because all of signs were there.

jim

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jan 24, 2014 9:00 am

jimkinny wrote:If I recall correctly, without wading through the 14 pages of this thread, the 2011 downturn was presumably caused by the Eurozone.

Perhaps, but August 2011 was when the credit rating of US were downgraded because of the stand-off in Congress about budget deficits.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by leod » Fri Jan 24, 2014 9:21 am

what is LBill's response to this thread or he's still waiting for the next big drop?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:24 am

He has not checked his account since May 2012.

That reminds me of an anecdote from J K Galbraith's book about the Great Crash of 1929. He reported that from 1929 into 1932, the Harvard Economic Club (?) posted monthly, positive, upbeat analyses of the economy and stock market. They ceased publication in June 1932, approximately at the same time the stock market finally bottomed.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:45 am

YDNAL wrote:
nisiprius wrote:Yes, but there is a second lesson to be drawn in addition to the one I think you are drawing.

What do you "think I'm drawing"?...
- That Stocks are risky and we should hope for compensation over time ?
- That with any timeframe longer than 2 days, 2 months, 2 years, we should look ahead towards the long-term ?

Then you "thought" correctly.
Good. That's what I thought.
nisiprius wrote:We are already starting to forget what happened in 2011 and see 2009-2013 as if it were a period of steady, Madoff-like, regular 20%/year gains.
Are you "starting to forget" ? Otherwise, I wouldn't use "we."
You are correct. Sorry.

For the record, yes, I personally am starting to forget about it. I have to look back and think and read some of my own posts from that time period to recover how I felt.
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JSMill » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:52 am

I was starting to miss this thread

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wriggly » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:53 am

nisiprius wrote:Image


I see you found your glasses. :happy

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by YDNAL » Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:03 pm

Nisiprius,

No need for apologies. Me thinks, it is important to be reminded that most of us invest for the long(er) term, not a couple of days as in the OP, and that we should plan and be prepared to see things (magnitude may vary) similar to 2008-09, 2011, 2009-13, etc.

With the European crisis, US budget issues, etc., things from 2011-13 could have indeed been different - but here we are anyways!

I've been waiting for those "bad day" threads to start popping-up today. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:16 pm

I tend to use "we" and "you" in messages when I mean "I" or "some people".

Just love those instant explanations. From CBS radio I learn it is all about concerns over currencies of emerging countries. Why didn't they tell me that two days ago?

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Sriracha » Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:36 pm

YDNAL wrote:I've been waiting for those "bad day" threads to start popping-up today. :)


Yep, same here. At least I can predict something. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:14 pm

Chauncey Gardiner anyone?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:26 pm

peppers wrote:Chauncey Gardiner anyone?

Forrest Gump?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:38 pm

The story of Chance the gardener from "Common Sense on Mutual Funds"
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:37 pm

peppers wrote:The story of Chance the gardener from "Common Sense on Mutual Funds"

Well, yes. Peter Sellers' character in "Being There", who IMO has similarities to the character of Forrest Gump. Unfortunately, I have not read "Common Sense ..." so I did not recognize that allusion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_There

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:34 pm

Wow. I didn't know the stock market was in freefall since 2011!! Good thing I didn't pay too much attention to this thread. I would have missed out on the 30% US Stock Market gains in 2013. These drops like we experienced the last two days are never pleasant but are part of investing.

I can't predict the markets but my suspicion is that we will see fewer 100% stock threads in the near future. Too much optimism in the markets worries me. It is actually reassuring to see this "freefall" thread pop up again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jay69 » Sat Jan 25, 2014 12:35 am

This thread is like an old lost friend :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Sat Jan 25, 2014 12:38 am

Jay69 wrote:This thread is like an old lost friend :wink:


This friend tends to visit only when he's lost lots of money.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Sat Jan 25, 2014 3:40 am

VictoriaF wrote:
Jay69 wrote:This thread is like an old lost friend :wink:


This friend tends to visit only when he's lost lots of money.

Victoria

No,

He visits only when you think, it's different this time. Look at nisiprius' charts: Who lost "lots of money"?

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:45 pm

Down 260 so far this Monday morning (2/2/14). Not free-falling yet, but getting warmed up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kenyan » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:51 pm

The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by technovelist » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:01 pm

kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!


Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:06 pm

technovelist wrote:
kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!


Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!

If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by technovelist » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:25 pm

Browser wrote:
technovelist wrote:
kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!


Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!

If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...


No, there are three states:

1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by czeckers » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:31 pm

I do get nervous when there are a lot of 100% stock threads.

I'd say a better "buy" indicator would be the number of "plan-b" threads -- that's real panic.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:37 pm

technovelist wrote:
Browser wrote:
technovelist wrote:
kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!


Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!

If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...


No, there are three states:

1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.

There are no threads about being 100% bonds because bonds suck as badly as stocks. "Hold" is the only option left -- kinda like a deer frozen in the headlights because it doesn't know which way to jump. Of course, the deer ends up getting run over while it is standing there doing nothing....
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Bustoff
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bustoff » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:59 pm

Wake me up when Total Bond Market recovers it losses.
Or when the S&P breaks below its 200 day moving average.

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floydtime
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by floydtime » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:27 pm

Bustoff wrote:Wake me up when Total Bond Market recovers it losses.

TBM has losses? I must be in a different TBM fund.
"Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master" - Alexandre Dumas

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