U.S. stocks in freefall

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Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:07 am

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.

I bet it will be an up day. :sharebeer
Futures indicate down modestly [edit - now up, always in motion the future is], so not a great bet. But who knows, and unless one is (shudder) a day trader who really cares... Stocks could indeed be in a freefall as the thread name says. Or could be in a stall. Or could be continuing an aging expansion for years. Hows that for a definitive prediction :)
Last edited by Da5id on Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:47 am

this is all just bluster from 2 men who ... nevermind. all i know is i will keep buying up international's drop and may just throw another 1K into US should this continue to drop.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:01 am

Da5id wrote:
Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.

I bet it will be an up day. :sharebeer
Futures indicate down modestly [edit - now up, always in motion the future is], so not a great bet. But who knows, and unless one is (shudder) a day trader who really cares... Stocks could indeed be in a freefall as the thread name says. Or could be in a stall. Or could be continuing an aging expansion for years. Hows that for a definitive prediction :)
I predicted a down day because (1) The problem is still there and is getting bigger. (2) Traders usually do not want to hold stocks over the weekends in case something happens during the weekends.

chisey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chisey » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:08 am

I love this thread. It contains so many great reminders that most things in life are temporary.

Don't freak out when things look bad, and don't take for granted the times that are good.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minesweep » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:27 am

So a 0 .9% drop in the Dow and a 1.45% drop in the S&P is a reason for discussion. A 5% correction is sometimes healthy for the markets. It doesn’t even come close to history’s top 10 one day losses for the Dow. My guess is that the stock market was just looking for a reason to skim some cream off the top.

DJIA Top 10 Largest Daily Percentage Losses:
1. 10-09-1987 – 22.61%
2. 10/28/1929 -12.82%
3. 10-29-1929 - 11.73%
4. 11/06/1929 - 9.92%
5. 12/18/1899 - 8.72%
6. 08/12/1932 -8.40%
7. 03/14/1907 - 8.29%
8. 10/26/1987 - 8.04%
9. 10/15/2008 - 7.87%
10. 07/21/1933 - 7.84%

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:39 am

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.

I bet it will be an up day. :sharebeer
So far I am correct at 9:39 EDT. 8-)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:01 am

minesweep wrote:So a 0 .9% drop in the Dow and a 1.45% drop in the S&P is a reason for discussion. A 5% correction is sometimes healthy for the markets. It doesn’t even come close to history’s top 10 one day losses for the Dow. My guess is that the stock market was just looking for a reason to skim some cream off the top.

DJIA Top 10 Largest Daily Percentage Losses:
1. 10-09-1987 – 22.61%
2. 10/28/1929 -12.82%
3. 10-29-1929 - 11.73%
4. 11/06/1929 - 9.92%
5. 12/18/1899 - 8.72%
6. 08/12/1932 -8.40%
7. 03/14/1907 - 8.29%
8. 10/26/1987 - 8.04%
9. 10/15/2008 - 7.87%
10. 07/21/1933 - 7.84%


Now that I am a Boglehead and fully invested at roughly 70/30 asset allocation a 1.45 percent drop in the S&P is about 5 times my wife's first salary when we got married. It is an interesting game. Some of my buddies aren't comfortable with the fluctuations in the market.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:02 am

U.S. up international down. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:12 am

lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
Bogle was Right!

rgs92
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:13 am

It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minesweep » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:16 am

rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
Thanks for correcting my typo error.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:42 am

rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:50 am

Da5id wrote:
lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
Bogle was Right!

Haha good one. :sharebeer
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:06 am

lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
my translation: watch US balance rise, buy more Int'l. Happy Friday!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:29 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
my translation: watch US balance rise, buy more Int'l. Happy Friday!
:D Exactly. I just continue to buy more VT as scheduled.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:05 am

it was sort of depressing to buy up admiral shares of int'l and then instantly watch it plummet ... rather than cry, bought 2K more ... and i'll do it again Monday if need be

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dspencer » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:10 am

oldzey wrote:
livesoft wrote:
grettman wrote:It will be interesting to see how this thread and the one that talks about how much people are up YTD evolves when we have a nice healthy plunge in the markets.
Just wait for the TLH threads to start appearing again.
TLH opportunities and equities on sale = a beautiful thing.
Not much in the way of TLH opportunities that I'm seeing. My autobuy is on the 10th. My purchase from July is still a gain, so no loss harvesting there. I guess if you bought within a couple weeks...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selftalk » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:15 am

Please remember that buying on the dip is fine but it will turn into a real bear market at some point which no one knows yet. So if you buy "don`t peek" afterwards as it`s easier on the nerves and creates more emotional stability.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:30 am

selftalk wrote:Please remember that buying on the dip is fine but it will turn into a real bear market at some point which no one knows yet. So if you buy "don`t peek" afterwards as it`s easier on the nerves and creates more emotional stability.
Agree. Also if there is a way you can setup automatic transactions and just check your balance once a year.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:43 am

Da5id wrote:
lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
Bogle was Right!
:sharebeer

I remember way back when The Hippie Dippie Weatherman said:
"The radar is picking up a line of thundershowers. However, the radar is also picking up a squadron of incoming Russian ICBMs, so I wouldn't sweat the thundershowers."

The smart money buys on the threat of nuclear annihilation not sell. If annihilation takes place the sale never pays. If annihilation doesn't happen the market quickly rebounds.

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Nicolas » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:06 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:it was sort of depressing to buy up admiral shares of int'l and then instantly watch it plummet ... rather than cry, bought 2K more ... and i'll do it again Monday if need be
I just did a Roth conversion last week -- all in VWO (Vanguard Emerging Markets Index ETF) :annoyed
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ThrustVectoring » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:08 pm

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.
The client probably got a margin call. What your portfolio can take when you're unlevered and long-only is way different than what it can handle levered.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Lieutenant.Columbo » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:10 pm

ThrustVectoring wrote:
Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.
The client probably got a margin call. What your portfolio can take when you're unlevered and long-only is way different than what it can handle levered.
can you explain margin call in this context,please?
Lt. Columbo: Well, what do you know. Here I am talking with some of the smartest people in the world, and I didn't even notice!

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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Nicolas » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:14 pm

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
ThrustVectoring wrote:
Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.
The client probably got a margin call. What your portfolio can take when you're unlevered and long-only is way different than what it can handle levered.
can you explain margin call in this context,please?
When you own securities bought on margin (loan from brokerage) and the value of the investment falls below the amount borrowed, the broker calls you asking you to deposit additional funds to make up the difference. If you can't, or won't, they sell out your investment at the current market price to recoup their money. This can be disastrous to the investor.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:28 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
ThrustVectoring wrote:
Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.
The client probably got a margin call. What your portfolio can take when you're unlevered and long-only is way different than what it can handle levered.
can you explain margin call in this context,please?
When you own securities bought on margin (loan from brokerage) and the value of the investment falls below the amount borrowed, the broker calls you asking you to deposit additional funds to make up the difference. If you can't, or won't, they sell out your investment at the current market price to recoup their money. This can be disastrous to the investor.
I assume "Had the client taken the Bogle view..." also implies owning the market at an appropriate risk level, not leveraging into more risk than you can (literally) live with.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:35 pm

roymeo wrote:I assume "..., not leveraging into more risk than you can (literally) live with.
To some it is gambling not investing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WiscoTrout » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:43 pm

Love seeing the fresh responses from this old thread showing up on the board again. It's like seeing a rerun one of my favorite M*A*SH* episodes on TV (yes, I'm old). :happy

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jcraz13 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:51 pm

That saying based on a true story by Art Cashin. Based on his experience on the floor during the Cuban crisis . Be long on
Armageddon, not short . If you are wrong who settles the trade ,
Lol. Great line .

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... -it-won-t-

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Da5id wrote:
lostdog wrote:U.S. up international down. :)
Bogle was Right!
:sharebeer

I remember way back when The Hippie Dippie Weatherman said:
"The radar is picking up a line of thundershowers. However, the radar is also picking up a squadron of incoming Russian ICBMs, so I wouldn't sweat the thundershowers."

The smart money buys on the threat of nuclear annihilation not sell. If annihilation takes place the sale never pays. If annihilation doesn't happen the market quickly rebounds.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:42 pm

selftalk wrote:Please remember that buying on the dip is fine but it will turn into a real bear market at some point which no one knows yet. So if you buy "don`t peek" afterwards as it`s easier on the nerves and creates more emotional stability.
and if/when that bear comes ... buy up even more! I have a long investment horizon, and quite frankly i find equity "risk" often confused for volatility ... as i get older/near retirement it will be a bigger issue to me - for now, all i'm doing is buying any dip that lowers my cost basis ... which so far has happened twice this week (1K each nothing crazy ... if it keeps dropping, i keep buying ... if it doesn't - cool what i have will continue going up]

i've kept a larger than normal cash reserve because i didnt feel comfortable dumping 100K into the market at such high valuations [i know ... i know] ... bring on a bear market - the "risk" short term will be well worth the reward long term. for now i'll keep making my monthly contribution and increase those contributions accordingly should prices continue to drop [literally spending more while others retreat]

like i've said on several threads ... if things get as bad as people freak out about - my asset allocation won't matter anyway. if they don't, i'll enjoy the stock market returns over 20+ years. Happy Friday!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:49 pm

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
rgs92 wrote:It was Oct. 19th, 1987, not Oct. 9th.
I grew up near the Falls Shopping Center in Southwest Miami. The story of someone going to the Falls, killing his broker, then himself soon after the Oct. 19 drop has fascinated me. Had the client taken the Bogle view of staying the course, or don't do something, just stand there, the client would have come out smelling like a rose within a year or two and beyond.
Off topic: Perhaps in the end the client did come out smelling like a rose...being literally a rose.

On-topic: I'm getting itchy fingers to TLH VBR into the more tax-efficient IJS now that I pay no commissions on my trades and have ultimate ETF flexibility. Who said market declines have to be a bad thing.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ThrustVectoring » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:56 pm

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
ThrustVectoring wrote:The client probably got a margin call. What your portfolio can take when you're unlevered and long-only is way different than what it can handle levered.
can you explain margin call in this context,please?
Sure thing. Lots of brokers will allow you to use the securities you purchase as collateral for loans to buy more securities with. These "margin loans" are low risk for the broker, since securities are highly liquid - if there's any doubt as to the investor's ability to repay the loan, the broker can sell the collateral. The loans can also be a good idea for investors who can handle the risk, since the expected return of the securities you buy is higher than the cost of the margin loan.

A "margin call" is how the broker notifies the investor that their portfolio is about to get sold to cover their margin loans. This is not a fun process. Not only did the value of the stocks you owned go down, but also the value of the stocks you borrowed money to purchase went down. And now you have to sell both of these at a loss and into a lower-priced market.

Overall, it's probably best for the vast majority of investors to avoid margin entirely. If you're young, have relatively few assets, have a stable income, are emotionally stable, understand the Kelley Criteria, AND have access to cheap leverage, then there's a small advantage to getting 120% exposure to equities instead of 100%. But uhh, yeah, most people aren't in that boat, and most people who use leverage do dumb stuff with it and end up getting wiped out in a market correction. And when that happens, you get a margin call, and it's really easy to blame the broker instead of yourself for losing all your money.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:22 pm

triceratop wrote:On-topic: I'm getting itchy fingers to TLH VBR into the more tax-efficient IJS now that I pay no commissions on my trades and have ultimate ETF flexibility. Who said market declines have to be a bad thing.
Acronym decoder:

TLH - Tax loss harvesting
VBR - Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF

I'll add this: Wash sale
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:19 pm

flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.
I cannot believe that I lost this bet.
Is the U.S. economy or the stock market really that resilient?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dottie57 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:31 pm

flyingaway wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.
I cannot believe that I lost this bet.
Is the U.S. economy or the stock market really that resilient?

Investors are like sparrows at a birdfeeder. Something spooks them, they all fly away. In a short time, 1 comes back, then a few more until all back at the feeder.

I don't think there is anything terribly bad with the economy, so unless we are blown up, no big worries.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gkaplan » Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:39 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:it was sort of depressing to buy up admiral shares of int'l and then instantly watch it plummet ... rather than cry, bought 2K more ... and i'll do it again Monday if need be
International is plummeting? That's news to me. My Vanguard Roth is invested in the Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, European Stock Index Fund, Pacific Stock Index Fund, and the FSTE All-World xUs Small-Cap Index Fund. All but the last fund are Admiral shares. The returns for those funds year-to-date are respectively as follows: 19.66%, 19.24%, 15.72%, and 17.84%. By contrast, the two domestic equity funds in my portfolio, Small-Cap Value Index Fund and Value Index Fund (both Admiral shares) are returning year-to-date 0.32% and 5.81%, respectively.
Gordon

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:58 pm

gkaplan wrote:
RRAAYY3 wrote:it was sort of depressing to buy up admiral shares of int'l and then instantly watch it plummet ... rather than cry, bought 2K more ... and i'll do it again Monday if need be
International is plummeting? That's news to me. My Vanguard Roth is invested in the Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, European Stock Index Fund, Pacific Stock Index Fund, and the FSTE All-World xUs Small-Cap Index Fund. All but the last fund are Admiral shares. The returns for those funds year-to-date are respectively as follows: 19.66%, 19.24%, 15.72%, and 17.84%. By contrast, the two domestic equity funds in my portfolio, Small-Cap Value Index Fund and Value Index Fund (both Admiral shares) are returning year-to-date 0.32% and 5.81%, respectively.
It's a more recent plummeting than that, and even still it's incredibly minor(from left to right: EM, Total Intl, Intl Small, US SCV, US Mkt):

Image

I'd be crying more about buying at so much higher prices than earlier this year than I would be rejoicing at this minor price dip, though, so you raise a good point.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Nicolas » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:02 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
flyingaway wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Can we have some fun with this thread? I bet tomorrow will be another down day.
I cannot believe that I lost this bet.
Is the U.S. economy or the stock market really that resilient?

Investors are like sparrows at a birdfeeder. Something spooks them, they all fly away. In a short time, 1 comes back, then a few more until all back at the feeder.

I don't think there is anything terribly bad with the economy, so unless we are blown up, no big worries.
I agree, and you gave a very apt comparison.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selftalk » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:20 pm

Warren Buffett has said to keep on investing no matter what unless a nuclear event comes that will destroy everything. That was in one of his annual reports.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:21 pm

Just to clarify. I was betting here for fun. I never made any changes to my investment in the last two weeks. No buy & no sell.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:44 pm

flyingaway wrote:Just to clarify. I was betting here for fun. I never made any changes to my investment in the last two weeks. No buy & no sell.
I was betting for fun too. Also I went from 18 percent bonds to 28 percent bonds this week, got the job done before Thursday's little dip.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:09 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
triceratop wrote:On-topic: I'm getting itchy fingers to TLH VBR into the more tax-efficient IJS now that I pay no commissions on my trades and have ultimate ETF flexibility. Who said market declines have to be a bad thing.
Acronym decoder:

TLH - Tax loss harvesting
VBR - Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF

I'll add this: Wash sale
Just to clarify: there should be no wash sale issues here due to the two indices being radically different. You can make a plausible case to the IRS that the move was not to TLH with no asset allocation change, but to improve portfolio tax efficiency. By my spreadsheet, IJS is 9bp cheaper by tax efficiency.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:01 pm

Not to belabor the obvious, but the lesson here amidst this new period of uncertainty and fear (even with only a minor market decline so far) is that those who confidently say that they have 80/90/100% of their portfolio in equities with no worries perhaps are not the best role models for the average reader here trying to determine an appropriate asset allocation.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:34 am

rgs92 wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:01 pm
Not to belabor the obvious, but the lesson here amidst this new period of uncertainty and fear (even with only a minor market decline so far) is that those who confidently say that they have 80/90/100% of their portfolio in equities with no worries perhaps are not the best role models for the average reader here trying to determine an appropriate asset allocation.
if i was nearing retirement there is no way i'd be anywhere close to 100% equity ... at 32 all i'm waiting for is the next crash in order to dump more cash in and ride the wave. If you're under 40, volatility should be irrelevant to you. If you're nearing retirement, reducing it should be your primary concern ... i know a lot of it is personal/psychological, but all i do is buy more shares when i see 1% drops - and I'll put in even more money once the next correction hits.

For now, i keep my cash reserve in high yield savings, make my monthly contribution regardless ... and if a real correction hits (this week?) - buy up even more. i know market timing blah blah blah - i'm not concerned with buying at the absolute bottom - i know overtime the markets will continue to rise over 20+ years - or the world will be over so who cares. i contribute anytime it lowers my cost basis

short version: more markets go down, more shares i buy and see ya in 30 years.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:37 am

gkaplan wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:39 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:it was sort of depressing to buy up admiral shares of int'l and then instantly watch it plummet ... rather than cry, bought 2K more ... and i'll do it again Monday if need be
International is plummeting? That's news to me. My Vanguard Roth is invested in the Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, European Stock Index Fund, Pacific Stock Index Fund, and the FSTE All-World xUs Small-Cap Index Fund. All but the last fund are Admiral shares. The returns for those funds year-to-date are respectively as follows: 19.66%, 19.24%, 15.72%, and 17.84%. By contrast, the two domestic equity funds in my portfolio, Small-Cap Value Index Fund and Value Index Fund (both Admiral shares) are returning year-to-date 0.32% and 5.81%, respectively.
unfortunately i waited too long to add admiral in my taxable ... but have since been DCAing back in as it drops. oh well.

ThrustVectoring
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ThrustVectoring » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:33 pm

selftalk wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:20 pm
Warren Buffett has said to keep on investing no matter what unless a nuclear event comes that will destroy everything. That was in one of his annual reports.
Why stop investing just because of a nuclear war? If it wipes things out, then it doesn't matter if you pulled your money out of the market.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:04 pm

ThrustVectoring wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:33 pm
selftalk wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:20 pm
Warren Buffett has said to keep on investing no matter what unless a nuclear event comes that will destroy everything. That was in one of his annual reports.
Why stop investing just because of a nuclear war? If it wipes things out, then it doesn't matter if you pulled your money out of the market.
it's so sad that this has essentially become the crux of my investing outlook ... based on everything for the last 80+ years - the markets will go up over time - or the world will end and your AA is irrelevant.

now that i'm finally in admiral shares for both total us / total int'l - i'll just let the markets dictate how (and how much) i contribute each month [i'm disciplined enough to contribute w/o automation]. I've purposely kept a larger than advised cash allocation in order to "safely" grow what i have - invest monthly - and tap into that cash with another lump sum investment should things go south.

is it market timing? sort of - i dove in this year at all time highs and will now contribute monthly regardless - i just do not feel comfortable dumping 100K into stocks at the moment. Should there be a correction (soon? please) - i will reduce my cash accordingly and then ride the wave.

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FIREchief
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FIREchief » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:39 pm

I once heard a saying that "you know you are in a bull market when there is a feeling of pain and disbelief among investors; disbelief of how much the market has gone up and pain that they've had a lot of money sitting on the sideline." Glad to hear from several posters that we're still in a bull market! :sharebeer
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:57 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:34 am
rgs92 wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:01 pm
Not to belabor the obvious, but the lesson here amidst this new period of uncertainty and fear (even with only a minor market decline so far) is that those who confidently say that they have 80/90/100% of their portfolio in equities with no worries perhaps are not the best role models for the average reader here trying to determine an appropriate asset allocation.
if i was nearing retirement there is no way i'd be anywhere close to 100% equity ... at 32 all i'm waiting for is the next crash in order to dump more cash in and ride the wave. If you're under 40, volatility should be irrelevant to you. If you're nearing retirement, reducing it should be your primary concern ... i know a lot of it is personal/psychological, but all i do is buy more shares when i see 1% drops - and I'll put in even more money once the next correction hits.

For now, i keep my cash reserve in high yield savings, make my monthly contribution regardless ... and if a real correction hits (this week?) - buy up even more. i know market timing blah blah blah - i'm not concerned with buying at the absolute bottom - i know overtime the markets will continue to rise over 20+ years - or the world will be over so who cares. i contribute anytime it lowers my cost basis

short version: more markets go down, more shares i buy and see ya in 30 years.
Well if you have a bunch of cash on the sidelines, you aren't 100% equities are you?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:13 pm

As of now, Dow up 127, the Nazz up 77 points, and the S&P up 23. I joke about this thread being a contrary indicator and it seems to be working great right now. Anyhoo, I have had a lot of fun with it.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Vanguard Fan 1367
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:28 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:13 pm
As of now, Dow up 127, the Nazz up 77 points, and the S&P up 23. I joke about this thread being a contrary indicator and it seems to be working great right now. Anyhoo, I have had a lot of fun with it.
I am sure glad that when I read John Bogle in the Spring of 2014 I didn't look at the highs in the market and decide not to invest. I decided to start my Boglehead asset allocation then and 3 years later things look pretty good :beer

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