U.S. stocks in freefall

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jrbdmb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jrbdmb » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:12 pm

I recently changed employers (or more accurately, my previous employer sold my division to a different company) that caused me to have a 401K plan at both my previous employer and new employer. In an effort to simplify things I decided to close my old 401K and add the funds to my new 401K.

I decided to close out the old account shortly before the election, because I thought that there was a non-zero chance of a result that might cause a significant market correction, and if I had to be out of the market for a week or two this was a reasonable time to do it.

So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

The moral of the story is - at least as far as the market goes - nobody knows nuthin' about where the market is headed next. Any investment decisions based on where you are "sure" the markets are headed is a fool's game.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:45 pm

jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:58 pm

OMG, stocks are going sideways, what to do, what to do :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Teague » Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:28 pm

I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:32 pm

Teague wrote:
I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


lol :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:36 pm

livesoft wrote:
jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash. :oops:

Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:59 pm

Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice


Few do.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:27 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:OMG, stocks are going sideways, what to do, what to do :confused


Will Rogers wrote:Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Wayson » Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:06 pm

triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash. :oops:

Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.


The depressing part is that people do take his advice, if only because 'He's got a Nobel prize in economics, he must be smart!11' And then they'll get burned, decide that the market is a casino, and stay all cash or go into high-risk alternative investments.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tycoon » Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:49 pm

Wayson wrote:
triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash. :oops:

Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.


The depressing part is that people do take his advice, if only because 'He's got a Nobel prize in economics, he must be smart!11' And then they'll get burned, decide that the market is a casino, and stay all cash or go into high-risk alternative investments.


People are sheep.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by just frank » Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:07 pm

I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tennisplyr » Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:10 pm

I can guarantee you two things, the market will go up and the market will go down, I won't guarantee when or how much.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:28 pm

just frank wrote:I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?


It wasn't explicit "do this" advice but he did predict an immediate equities market crash. History has proven that hasty prediction a significant error.

Stay the course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by just frank » Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:47 pm

triceratop wrote:
just frank wrote:I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?


It wasn't explicit "do this" advice but he did predict an immediate equities market crash. History has proven that hasty prediction a significant error.

Stay the course.


Sure, I read his impromptu reaction, but I didn't take it as reasoned or actionable 'advice', so much as an in the heat of the moment reaction. Not appropriate for a columnist to be sure, so it was followed by a mea culpa after he'd gotten some oxygen.

I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:43 pm

just frank wrote:I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.

That's good, it keeps the market efficient; for every sucker seller there is a sucker buyer.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:36 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
just frank wrote:I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.

That's good, it keeps the market efficient; for every sucker seller there is a sucker buyer.

Or livesoft, picking up a few bargains on a RBD. 8-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:13 pm

The sun rose this morning (and so did the stock market).
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by columbia » Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:05 pm

My promise to myself is that I will only ever change my investment choices (not AA) on the day before Thanksgiving.

I made it through unscathed. :sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:24 pm

The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:29 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.


At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:59 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.


At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.


Yeah--where's the fun in that?!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:48 am

People must be antsy for a freefall, bumping this topic for the slightest reason!

No worries, it will come! :sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by goodenyou » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:09 am

"I think the market will fluctuate."
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:11 am

I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.

:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:44 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.

At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:34 am

Guys, I just want to give you the heads up now.

I will be causing a major pullback in the US stock market sometime next week!

You see, I just spent a month fixing a mistake I made trying to do a backdoor Roth conversion.

See here for details. viewtopic.php?f=1&p=3142923#p3142923

The result is that I have an extra ~$30k (15% of portfolio) sitting in cash within my 401k/Roth IRA right now. I will be dumping it into the market as soon as Vanguards frequent trading limits are lifted from my account.

History always repeats itself, and the last 3 times I had large lump sums of money to invest, the market dropped immediately after!

You're welcome :sharebeer :moneybag

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:35 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.

At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:49 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.

At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.


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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by why3not » Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:53 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.


You don't have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:22 am

why3not wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.


You don't have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...


Alpaca futures.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed » Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:39 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:Guys, I just want to give you the heads up now.

I will be causing a major pullback in the US stock market sometime next week!

You see, I just spent a month fixing a mistake I made trying to do a backdoor Roth conversion.

See here for details. viewtopic.php?f=1&p=3142923#p3142923

The result is that I have an extra ~$30k (15% of portfolio) sitting in cash within my 401k/Roth IRA right now. I will be dumping it into the market as soon as Vanguards frequent trading limits are lifted from my account.

History always repeats itself, and the last 3 times I had large lump sums of money to invest, the market dropped immediately after!

You're welcome :sharebeer :moneybag


Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).

Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?

RM
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:46 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).

Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?

RM


The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.

I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.

The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed » Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:16 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).

Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?

RM


The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.

I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.

The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.


Right.
But you could still put the money in a very similar fund(s) (like S&P Index, or S&P plus Extended, or whatever) for the duration, to get pretty much around that frequent trading restriction.
Then move it back where you wanted it.

RM
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by David Jay » Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:04 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).

Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?

RM


The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.

I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.

The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.


Buy Investor shares instead. They should be automatically upgraded to Admiral shares in a couple of months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jpelder » Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:24 pm

why3not wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.


You don't have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...


Image

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:19 pm

why3not wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you :confused


I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.


You don't have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...
I was referring to shorting a stock when a margin call comes in. Then there is no choice. OP you don't HAVE to go back in but the train is leaving the station and picking up steam. It's going to be "huge".

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:26 pm

I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:30 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed

That's easy, folks had to sell equities in order to rebalance into bonds. There have been quite a lot of rebalancing threads lately, so your fellow Bogleheads have contributed to all this action, too.

Furthermore, the FOMC made a prediction about the future which was not inline with what most pundits were predicting.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:44 pm

jpelder wrote:Image
I've wondered, but I don't know how to find out... the more often I see that, the more I wonder whether it's intended to be a stock tip and/or a career recommendation, not for polymers in general a substances, but for GE Plastics in particular. That is, is the line really "There's a great future in plastics?" Or is it "There's a great future in Plastics?"

GE Plastics was for a long time one of the biggest and most important of the plastics producers. GE spat it out circa 2008.

If you never seen it, take a look at this industrial movie, The Kingdom of Plastics. In addition to an impressive castle prefiguring Disneyland, the point of the title is that "plastics" is not animal, vegetable, or mineral, but belongs to the fourth kingdom of its own, the Kingdom of Plastics. During the 1950s, early plastics, notably polystyrene, gave "plastic" the reputation for cheapness, cheesiness, and phoniness.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lack_ey » Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:49 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed

First of all, the change is not even that great and well within your typical noise. But obviously the market reacts to more than just the one change. People are looking at dot plots for projected future changes, wording, economic data, etc. I think these are overall tighter than expected. Though the 25 bp bump in FFR was virtually a lock and presumably priced in, the degree and expectations for future rate increases was not to the current extent.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:11 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.

0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lack_ey » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:19 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.

0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.


BREAKING NEWS: Market Changes Shoes, Loses 0.6%. Is Another Hike on the Horizon?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:20 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced? :annoyed
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.

0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.


Rofl, I have no idea how you come up with these. Coffee over desk!
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:34 pm

Good to see this thread pop up again. This thread is one of Nedsaid's contrary market indicators and it has worked most of the time. If I am right, this will be a short blip downwards.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Tamalak
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:56 pm

vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:11 pm

Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Maybe they're better at reading the writing on the wall. Or maybe not. Or maybe their markets close earlier. Rip the entrails out of a pigeon and get back to me.

Tamalak
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:20 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Maybe they're better at reading the writing on the wall. Or maybe not. Or maybe their markets close earlier. Rip the entrails out of a pigeon and get back to me.


I already asked CNBC.

corpgator
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corpgator » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:30 pm

Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?


That's just money fleeing to the dollar.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:48 pm

Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.

Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:07 pm

Freefall ain't what it used to be.

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