U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
long_gamma
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by long_gamma » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:53 pm

livesoft wrote:I rationalize the Friday - Monday thing as follows: Many folks are not paying attention, then when they look over the weekend when they have time, they go "OMG!" and submit the same orders that folks paying attention on Friday did. However, on other days of the week, the "weekenders" simply don't pay attention and do not contribute to any further drop the day after a big drop on Monday through Thursday. Anyways, it is just my idle mind making up a possible reason.

I believe that RodC's backtesting included buying on Fridays. I will note that a big Friday drop was followed by the Mother-of-all drops on Monday occurred in October 1987.


Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Image
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson

User avatar
Ricola
Posts: 603
Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:38 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ricola » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:57 pm

When DJ was down about 680 I took it as a bit of a buying opportunity. :D

Day9
Posts: 595
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Day9 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:57 pm

Surely the big-money market-movers have access to the markets 24/7, perhaps by using futures contracts.
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from

livesoft
Posts: 56381
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:00 pm

long_gamma wrote:Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Note that big Monday drops occur at double the frequency of big Tues-Fri drops.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 11300
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:12 pm

livesoft wrote:
boglephreak wrote:i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?

There may or may not be a benefit of waiting until Monday, but if Monday is another big down day, then I think you will think there is a benefit. One cannot predict the future.

I think backtesting suggests that big Friday drops have a higher probability of being followed by a Monday drop than big drops on Monday through Thursday.

I don't intend to do anything with our investments on Monday.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

bayview
Posts: 1280
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:05 pm
Location: WNC

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:23 pm

Holy cannoli, I have never seen percentage drops like that! :shock:

Excellent time to get DH's trad IRA's switched to Roths, as the stock funds are so undervalued. :beer He is facing RMDs in four years, and we missed the boat during the Recent Unpleasantness.

If the market wants to run around and act like crazy people, I have no compunction about taking advantage of this.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

avalpert
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:32 pm

livesoft wrote:
long_gamma wrote:Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Note that big Monday drops occur at double the frequency of big Tues-Fri drops.

Makes sense since it has two extra day in which unexpected risks can occur.

avalpert
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:33 pm

bayview wrote:, as the stock funds are so undervalued.

No, they are just valued - whether it is under or over is unknown now.

If the market wants to run around and act like crazy people, I have no compunction about taking advantage of this.

The market isn't acting like crazy people - it is acting like people that is adapting to an unexpected event with negative consequences.

bayview
Posts: 1280
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:05 pm
Location: WNC

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:36 pm

avalpert wrote:
livesoft wrote:
long_gamma wrote:Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Note that big Monday drops occur at double the frequency of big Tues-Fri drops.

Makes sense since it has two extra day in which unexpected risks can occur.

And more time for investors to read the financial noise and get hysterical.

--And I apologize if my post above seemed insensitive to those who are having to live off their investments, because that was absolutely not my intent. It's a scary world out there, and I'm <5 years from retirement (please please please let this be so), which is why >2/3 of our investments are in Treasuries. Best wishes to those who might have to do some jiggling in the near future.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

long_gamma
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by long_gamma » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:42 pm

Day9 wrote:Surely the big-money market-movers have access to the markets 24/7, perhaps by using futures contracts.


To access futures contracts, one does not need to be big-money. Overnight future contract volumes are not that big, except for the event like Brexit, wars etc. Future contract volumes are high during native sessions, where big contracts can be hedged by the underlying.

Yesterday ES future contract was also halted after it was down by 5%, which added to the volatility of other markets.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson

bayview
Posts: 1280
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:05 pm
Location: WNC

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:50 pm

avalpert wrote:
bayview wrote:, as the stock funds are so undervalued.

No, they are just valued - whether it is under or over is unknown now.

Fair enough; I agree that we don't know what the future holds.
avalpert wrote:
If the market wants to run around and act like crazy people, I have no compunction about taking advantage of this.

The market isn't acting like crazy people - it is acting like people that is adapting to an unexpected event with negative consequences.

I have to disagree on this. When I experience an "unexpected event", I hunker down and see what happens. I don't sell my investments at a loss. That's not adapting; that's panicking.

There have been many previous posts in the forums noting that Mr./Ms. Market does not necessarily react in a rational way, especially on the first few days of a major political/economic event. There is a huge element of irrational, emotion-based behavior in the setting of closing market prices.

This brings to mind the quote: Buy when there's blood in the streets, even when it's your own. (Not adding the attribution, due to the somewhat pejorative and unsubstantiated details.)
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

avalpert
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:30 pm

bayview wrote:
avalpert wrote:
If the market wants to run around and act like crazy people, I have no compunction about taking advantage of this.

The market isn't acting like crazy people - it is acting like people that is adapting to an unexpected event with negative consequences.

I have to disagree on this. When I experience an "unexpected event", I hunker down and see what happens. I don't sell my investments at a loss. That's not adapting; that's panicking.


Well, I think a 'remain' vote and been almost fully priced in as all expectations (right up until Sutherland reported) were that that was how it would go. I think a 7% swing between the two end states isn't wholly unreasonable. If you want to say they were 'panicking' and acting crazy it would be the runup to the vote - but again, given what was known at the time I find it hard to argue it was unreasonable.

There have been many previous posts in the forums noting that Mr./Ms. Market does not necessarily react in a rational way, especially on the first few days of a major political/economic event. There is a huge element of irrational, emotion-based behavior in the setting of closing market prices.


Well let's be really clear here - Mr./Ms. market doesn't react at all and, while occasionally it is a useful way to describe what is happening, it can also mislead. Individuals certainly act irrationally (probably most of the time, the idea that humans are rational animals isn't well supported by science) - the market is a pure unemotional aggregation of humans irrational behavior. So yes, sometimes the aggregated view of the market will lean irrationally towards one side or the other - the problem is there is no way for us lonely humans to know when that is. The market was 'irrationally exuberant' for years, and that works on the downside too - it is easy in retrospect to say it was irrational, but in the moment you can either accept the aggregated view or think your individual knowledge is more rational in some way and act on it (but again, given what we know about actual human behavior, particularly when they think they are right, the odds that that is a rational reaction may not be so high). This is why systemic investment plans are such a good idea - they are there to combat your own emotional responses both when you are panic selling and when you are zealously buying.

Grogs
Posts: 369
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grogs » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:19 pm

I was a good Boglehead today - didn't do anything, just stood there. There was really nothing actionable for me on the international front. My international funds are in my Roth, which is already fully contributed for the year, and my 401k. Today was payday so the automatic 401k contribution should have gone in at market close. There may be some minor rebalancing opportunities down the road, but I think that's about it.

I did think hard about adding some money to my total stock market fund in the taxable account when I saw that was down about 3.5%, but decided to just ignore the noise and wait. It's money that I have scheduled to invest nominally on the 1st, but any day between payday and the first would be fine. I think I may just go ahead and put in the order this weekend and just take whatever Monday's close gives me, be it back up or down some more. Watching the interday prices is entertaining sometimes, but on the whole I find it too distracting.

User avatar
grabiner
Advisory Board
Posts: 20681
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:58 pm
Location: Columbia, MD

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:38 pm

long_gamma wrote:Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Image


In a sample size of 64, the standard deviation of the number of up days is 4, which is 6.25%. Thus all the numbers in this table are consistent with the market's direction being random and no relation to the day of the week, nor to the previous day's movement at all. (Pure randomness is not quite correct; the market is more volatile following a big down day, but not consistently in either direction. I don't know what the market will do Monday, but it is more likely to gain or lose 1% than usual.)

The fact that big down days are more common on Monday than on any other day is inconsistent with randomness, but it has a good reason; bad news is three times as likely to occur between Friday's and Monday's close as between Thursday's and Friday's.
David Grabiner

User avatar
just frank
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:13 pm
Location: Philly Metro

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by just frank » Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:17 am

I have decided that I am of 'two minds' with a chunk of my 403b, equally happy to either have it all in an equity index fund (cref equity R3) or in TIAA-REAL. The latter has the advantage of very low volatility. Because I am of two minds, I have decided I can swing it back and forth (no more than once per quarter, per TIAA rules) whenever the mood strikes, and not feel guilty about it.

I swung the chunk from 'equity' to 'real' on June 2nd, near an SP500 peak, and swung back from real to equity on Friday. I netted 3% (relative to sitting in equity the whole time), and just repeat to myself...'timing the market is impossible' like a mantra. :D

User avatar
mickeyd
Posts: 4403
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:19 pm
Location: Deep in the Heart of South Texas

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:17 pm

What's all that racket I hear out front?

"Hey you guys, get off of my lawn." 8-)

Now back to my favorite napping place.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

jay22
Posts: 699
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jay22 » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:17 pm

livesoft wrote:
avalpert wrote:But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

This is correct. People are able to tax-loss harvest mutual fund shares as needed. It is pretty easy to do so as well. Here is a thread that documents how I tax-loss harvested VTIAX last December:
Tax-loss harvesting documented.

Quite informative thread, thanks Livesoft!

I see what you're saying that one can TLH with mutual funds as well. But, you will only get the closing prices which may have risen enough and you could lose the potential opportunity to do TLH.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:31 pm

mickeyd wrote:What's all that racket I hear out front?

"Hey you guys, get off of my lawn." 8-)

Now back to my favorite napping place.


Very well put! :sharebeer

avalpert
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:30 am

jay22 wrote:
livesoft wrote:
avalpert wrote:But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

This is correct. People are able to tax-loss harvest mutual fund shares as needed. It is pretty easy to do so as well. Here is a thread that documents how I tax-loss harvested VTIAX last December:
Tax-loss harvesting documented.

Quite informative thread, thanks Livesoft!

I see what you're saying that one can TLH with mutual funds as well. But, you will only get the closing prices which may have risen enough and you could lose the potential opportunity to do TLH.

Honestly, if intraday movements are the difference between it being worthwhile for you to TLH and not than your threshold is too low

fposte
Posts: 965
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:32 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fposte » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:00 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:Did anyone else get an email from Vanguard saying not to panic?


No, but I notice that the website has a big box when I log in saying not to freak out and change my portfolio because of Brexit (not in those exact words, obviously). I wasn't anticipating that they'd do stuff like that--it's kind of interesting.

lgs88
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:48 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lgs88 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:27 am

This thread is valuable because it provides an easily accessible recent history of "this is the big one" prediction events.

Pick any page of it at random, and you'll find someone (usually with a plausible-sounding rationale) forecasting a financial meltdown because of the Greek debt crisis, the Japanese tsunami, the gov't shutdown, the US credit downgrade...
merely an interested amateur

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 358
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:33 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:37 am

Stock futures already look far worst today than they did Friday before trading opened in NY.......this is FAAARR from over.

Glad to be 29 years old with a long time till retirement. :sharebeer

jay22
Posts: 699
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jay22 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:49 am

avalpert wrote:
jay22 wrote:
livesoft wrote:
avalpert wrote:But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

This is correct. People are able to tax-loss harvest mutual fund shares as needed. It is pretty easy to do so as well. Here is a thread that documents how I tax-loss harvested VTIAX last December:
Tax-loss harvesting documented.

Quite informative thread, thanks Livesoft!

I see what you're saying that one can TLH with mutual funds as well. But, you will only get the closing prices which may have risen enough and you could lose the potential opportunity to do TLH.

Honestly, if intraday movements are the difference between it being worthwhile for you to TLH and not than your threshold is too low

I am not sure what you mean by threshold. My rule is, when any of my fund goes down by $400-500, I sell it to TLH. That to me is enough to justify the tax advantage of TLHing.

selftalk
Posts: 1096
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:08 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selftalk » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:51 am

John Bogle said " Don`t Peek." It seems that there are a lot of Boglehead peekers out there and according to him that`s not the way to financial freedom or a good retirement income.

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 3450
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:10 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:Stock futures already look far worst today than they did Friday before trading opened in NY.......this is FAAARR from over.

Glad to be 29 years old with a long time till retirement. :sharebeer


Not from where I am sitting...
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

tj
Posts: 1927
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:10 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tj » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:21 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:Stock futures already look far worst today than they did Friday before trading opened in NY.......this is FAAARR from over.

Glad to be 29 years old with a long time till retirement. :sharebeer


????

Looks pretty flat to me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 1579
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:23 pm

Expecting this thread to be on fire this time tomorrow. Lotta fear mongering going on right now. Looking forward to the good reading material :wink:
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

scone
Posts: 1384
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:31 pm

I just took a peek, and our portfolio got knocked all the way back to June 3. Meh.

BTW, DH retired on June 21. :sharebeer
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

avalpert
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:13 pm

jay22 wrote:
avalpert wrote:
jay22 wrote:
livesoft wrote:
avalpert wrote:But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

This is correct. People are able to tax-loss harvest mutual fund shares as needed. It is pretty easy to do so as well. Here is a thread that documents how I tax-loss harvested VTIAX last December:
Tax-loss harvesting documented.

Quite informative thread, thanks Livesoft!

I see what you're saying that one can TLH with mutual funds as well. But, you will only get the closing prices which may have risen enough and you could lose the potential opportunity to do TLH.

Honestly, if intraday movements are the difference between it being worthwhile for you to TLH and not than your threshold is too low

I am not sure what you mean by threshold. My rule is, when any of my fund goes down by $400-500, I sell it to TLH. That to me is enough to justify the tax advantage of TLHing.

Yes, that was the threshold i was talking about. Like I said, I think it is too small a benefit to warrant the frictional costs and risks of TLH (particularly if you are talking about ETFs where you have bid/ask spreads and the risk of sudden moves as you execute the sell and buy).

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 358
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:33 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:20 pm

tj wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:Stock futures already look far worst today than they did Friday before trading opened in NY.......this is FAAARR from over.

Glad to be 29 years old with a long time till retirement. :sharebeer


????

Looks pretty flat to me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/


Maybe I am reading this wrong?

U.S. Stock Futures
S&P -95.00 / -4.50%
Level 2,018.25
Fair Value 2,028.17
Difference -9.92

Nasdaq -217.00 / -4.84%
Level 4,262.00
Fair Value 4,275.91
Difference -13.91

Dow -718.00 / -4.00%
Level 17,251.00

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:20 pm

selftalk wrote:John Bogle said " Don`t Peek." It seems that there are a lot of Boglehead peekers out there and according to him that`s not the way to financial freedom or a good retirement income.


I have to disagree with our hero on this one. I recommend that all the newer investors out there, especially those who are younger, stare straight into these things so that the next time, and the next time, and the next time you'll be well familiar with the beast and able to ride it out fully knowing that there is nothing new here. That said, when you're staring the beast in the eyes, do not blink! :moneybag

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:22 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
tj wrote:
2Birds1Stone wrote:Stock futures already look far worst today than they did Friday before trading opened in NY.......this is FAAARR from over.

Glad to be 29 years old with a long time till retirement. :sharebeer


????

Looks pretty flat to me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/


Maybe I am reading this wrong?

U.S. Stock Futures
S&P -95.00 / -4.50%
Level 2,018.25
Fair Value 2,028.17
Difference -9.92

Nasdaq -217.00 / -4.84%
Level 4,262.00
Fair Value 4,275.91
Difference -13.91

Dow -718.00 / -4.00%
Level 17,251.00


I think you were going back in time to Friday before open. Check this link:

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/

fanmail
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fanmail » Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:41 pm

Yeah, those are Friday's prices. Futures markets will open at 6 est.

Doom&Gloom
Posts: 1384
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:20 pm

Dang! You guys take all the fun out of this thread with your pesky facts.

Teague
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Teague » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:31 pm

NMJack wrote:I think you were going back in time to Friday before open. Check this link:

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/


That link shows the GBP up almost 12%, and it's changing by the minute (increasing) so the currency futures I guess are active now?

Edit: But when I check Bloomberg it says the GBP is down about 2%. Well, not that I was going to do anything either way, so I think I'll just go shopping.
Last edited by Teague on Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Semper Augustus

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1328
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:41 pm

NMJack wrote:
selftalk wrote:John Bogle said " Don`t Peek." It seems that there are a lot of Boglehead peekers out there and according to him that`s not the way to financial freedom or a good retirement income.


I have to disagree with our hero on this one. I recommend that all the newer investors out there, especially those who are younger, stare straight into these things so that the next time, and the next time, and the next time you'll be well familiar with the beast and able to ride it out fully knowing that there is nothing new here. That said, when you're staring the beast in the eyes, do not blink! :moneybag


I agree, but I don't think it matters whether one looks or not. The key is to not react to news in an emotional manner. We all know that knee-jerk reactions can lead to behavioral errors, potentially messing up our portfolios.

It's a good time to take a long financial summer vacation nap. Just wake up occasionally to tax loss harvest and remind yourself to stay the course. You can always read Bogleheads if you feel you need to be involved with your investments. Since it's summer you will probably get a lot of gardening tips too, so even if your investments go South temporarily, at least you will be able to feel good about your garden.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:56 pm

GoldenFinch wrote: Just wake up occasionally to tax loss harvest and remind yourself to stay the course.


While you're awake, and watching the blood flow, you might also check to see if that Roth conversion you did earlier in the year can be redone at a discount price! (with recharacterization of the original around Thanksgiving)

We're not quite there yet, but who knows what the week will bring. :confused

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1828
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:50 pm

fposte wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Did anyone else get an email from Vanguard saying not to panic?


No, but I notice that the website has a big box when I log in saying not to freak out and change my portfolio because of Brexit (not in those exact words, obviously). I wasn't anticipating that they'd do stuff like that--it's kind of interesting.

Back in April 2015 Vanguard over weighted its target retirement funds to foreign stocks, (VTIAX) down 20%. There must be a hoard of unhappy investors.

User avatar
Leif
Posts: 2155
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:56 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:Back in April 2015 Vanguard over weighted its target retirement funds to foreign stocks, (VTIAX) down 20%. There must be a hoard of unhappy investors.

Actually they reduced (but not eliminated) the US overweight, on a global asset basis. I would guess that the vast majority of target fund holders are not even aware of the change.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

flyersrule
Posts: 166
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:25 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyersrule » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:37 pm

fanmail wrote:Yeah, those are Friday's prices. Futures markets will open at 6 est.

http://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

Why are these changing then?

User avatar
VirtualCuriosity
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed May 04, 2016 2:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VirtualCuriosity » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:52 pm

selftalk wrote:John Bogle said " Don`t Peek." It seems that there are a lot of Boglehead peekers out there and according to him that`s not the way to financial freedom or a good retirement income.


I peek all the time. I just don't react irrationally. Had I not peeked this weekend, I would not have noticed that one of our accounts does not show the bi-weekly deposit, which it always does late Friday night. Now I know to call Monday if the transaction hasn't been added by then. This will not be the first time this has happened, hence the peeking preference.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:23 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
fposte wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Did anyone else get an email from Vanguard saying not to panic?


No, but I notice that the website has a big box when I log in saying not to freak out and change my portfolio because of Brexit (not in those exact words, obviously). I wasn't anticipating that they'd do stuff like that--it's kind of interesting.

Back in April 2015 Vanguard over weighted its target retirement funds to foreign stocks, (VTIAX) down 20%. There must be a hoard of unhappy investors.


One MORE reason not to use target date funds and to just compile your own portfolio. :beer

User avatar
VirtualCuriosity
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed May 04, 2016 2:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VirtualCuriosity » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:39 am

Below was the simple message from Prudential upon login

"With Britain's vote to exit the European Union. Global markets have been reacting to the news, resulting in increased market volatility. We encourage participants and account holders to recognize that saving for retirement is a long term strategy, and it is important to keep those long term goals in mind as you review your investment strategy. You can review your account holdings by logging into your retirement plan"

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1828
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:31 am

Leif wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Back in April 2015 Vanguard over weighted its target retirement funds to foreign stocks, (VTIAX) down 20%. There must be a hoard of unhappy investors.

Actually they reduced (but not eliminated) the US overweight, on a global asset basis. I would guess that the vast majority of target fund holders are not even aware of the change.
They are aware of sub par returns; actually negative returns.

User avatar
Leif
Posts: 2155
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:33 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Leif wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Back in April 2015 Vanguard over weighted its target retirement funds to foreign stocks, (VTIAX) down 20%. There must be a hoard of unhappy investors.

Actually they reduced (but not eliminated) the US overweight, on a global asset basis. I would guess that the vast majority of target fund holders are not even aware of the change.
They are aware of sub par returns; actually negative returns.

Perhaps, although I believe most don't watch as closely as us. In any case, how many will attribute that to a 10% change in foreign allocation? I would be surprised if it was even 1%.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

fanmail
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fanmail » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:39 pm

flyersrule wrote:
fanmail wrote:Yeah, those are Friday's prices. Futures markets will open at 6 est.

http://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

Why are these changing then?


6 pm est, so yeah they should have been changing at midnight.

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2257
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:00 pm

I had this month's deferred comp deposit go in today. I was wishing for that to happen last Friday, but today things are even lower. Shows how hard it is to make money trying to put in at low points. The market could go down for the rest of the year or today could be the low (high) point. The only winning strategy is to have a plan and to follow that instead of emotional or timing strategies. I checked and I'm a ways away from any rebalance point so I'll just keep putting money from each paycheck into the assets that have fallen below my desired percentages.

Make no mistake, times like these are not fun.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

primetime5
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by primetime5 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:02 pm

I have been putting off contributing to my solo 401k all year. Just did 35k this morning so there's that. Probably won't go through though until things perk back up, but oh well. :oops:

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 1579
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:24 pm

primetime5 wrote:I have been putting off contributing to my solo 401k all year. Just did 35k this morning so there's that. Probably won't go through though until things perk back up, but oh well. :oops:


Sometimes procrastination pays off
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

User avatar
VirtualCuriosity
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed May 04, 2016 2:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VirtualCuriosity » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:33 pm

primetime5 wrote:I have been putting off contributing to my solo 401k all year. Just did 35k this morning so there's that. Probably won't go through though until things perk back up, but oh well. :oops:


LOL, for real???

Post Reply