U.S. stocks in freefall

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livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:53 am

scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kolea » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:02 am

I heard the markets took a bit of a hit last night and today. I haven't looked at it since there is nothing I am going to do about it anyway. The market lurches along from one crisis to the next and hopefully exhibits some net growth in between the crises. Really, this sort of stuff is just SOP for financial markets.
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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:06 am

I don't have livesoft's spreadsheet or anything, but I'm willing to bet today is an RBD for VXUS and VSS :D

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jayhawkerbeef » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:07 am

scone wrote: It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy


^but he doesn't pull the trigger on RBD that falls on a Friday. Or maybe today might change that.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NORDO » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:08 am

Urchina wrote:Keep calm and carry on!


Da5id wrote:Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.


Yep.

I did nothing back in August. Portfolio bottomed out something like -$15K from the previous high. Today it's +$43K from that point.

I'm sure it'll drop again today. And then it'll go up again.

The cycle continues...

:sharebeer

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:09 am

livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jpelder » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:11 am

Da5id wrote:
livesoft wrote:VTIAX was up about 6% from June 14 through yesterday, so if it goes down 6% to 10% today it will look spectacular, but you've been there already this month.


Far too reasonable a point of view. We're all doomed, flee for your lives! Gold and canned goods! Frogs will rain from the heavens!

On second thought, stay the course does sound good. But yes, recent gains means today's likely bloodbath won't even make me re-balance...


Frogs rain from the heavens? When life gives you frogs, make frog legs!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:12 am

zaboomafoozarg wrote:I don't have livesoft's spreadsheet or anything, but I'm willing to bet today is an RBD for VXUS and VSS :D

VSS at the moment is not trading as low as it did on June 16th.
VXUS at the moment is not trading as low as it did on June 16th.
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livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:13 am

triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.

I haven't decided what to do today. I might do something on Monday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jjface » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:14 am

livesoft wrote:
zaboomafoozarg wrote:I don't have livesoft's spreadsheet or anything, but I'm willing to bet today is an RBD for VXUS and VSS :D

VSS at the moment is not trading as low as it did on June 16th.
VXUS at the moment is not trading as low as it did on June 16th.


RBM - maybe we need a new one - really bad month!

No buying as it isn't a RBM ... yet

Or RBDNIF - Really bad day not including Fridays

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by miles monroe » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:26 am

kramer should be in rare form tonite!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:36 am

livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


Tru dat. The acrid smell of hair on fire has only just begun. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:30 am

Da5id wrote:
wizzard wrote:Anyone else buying more this morning? :D


Yes. But only because my paycheck/401k buy is today.

Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.

No, waiting for Monday when the margin calls come in.

Just kidding...
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wizzard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wizzard » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:34 am

it will interesting to see what happens with all of this......

Either way I honestly do not care. Assets will go up, or they will be discounted and I will but more :sharebeer
"In uncertain times, show equanimity. Otherwise you are an unfit shareholder" -Charlie Munger

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:38 am

livesoft wrote:
triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.

I haven't decided what to do today. I might do something on Monday.

Almost impossible for today to be an RBD. you need the cumulative effects of days or weeks of panic culminating in a capitulation. Today is just a surprise and people don't like surprises. An RBD could occur next week if the weekend is full of negativity and Monday waterfalls into the close.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:47 am

wizzard wrote:it will interesting to see what happens with all of this......

Either way I honestly do not care. Assets will go up, or they will be discounted and I will but more :sharebeer

Yep, nothing like buying all the way down because it keeps getting more heavily discounted to show the market whose boss...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mancich » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:53 am

NORDO wrote:
Urchina wrote:Keep calm and carry on!


Da5id wrote:Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.


Yep.

I did nothing back in August. Portfolio bottomed out something like -$15K from the previous high. Today it's +$43K from that point.

I'm sure it'll drop again today. And then it'll go up again.

The cycle continues...

:sharebeer


+1
We can talk about this forever, but markets eventually recover and then rise again. Unless there is a true apocalypse, in which case our portfolios are the least of our concerns...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jay22 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:14 pm

If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tj » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:16 pm

jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jayhawkerbeef » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:20 pm

jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!


Also, it's best practice to determine which similar, but not identical fund, to TLH to before the opportunity is available. For example, I know VTI will be paired with VV or VOO when I TLH, and I list this out in a spreadsheet for all the asset classes I own.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jay22 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:24 pm

tj wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

I know I have to switch to a similar fund.

What I am saying is, I want to move from VGTSX to VXUS since it gives me better control to do TLH. I do not know if that is considered a taxable event or not.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GeraniumLover » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:26 pm

jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!


Are you asking whether you can make a 1031 like-kind exchange so that it is not a taxable event in order to switch your position from mutual funds to ETFs? I am pretty sure that cannot be done with securities...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:27 pm

jay22 wrote:
tj wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

I know I have to switch to a similar fund.

What I am saying is, I want to move from VGTSX to VXUS since it gives me better control to do TLH. I do not know if that is considered a taxable event or not.

Not a taxable event.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tj » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:28 pm

GeraniumLover wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!


Are you asking whether you can make a 1031 like-kind exchange so that it is not a taxable event in order to switch your position from mutual funds to ETFs? I am pretty sure that cannot be done with securities...


I'm pretty sure you can switch from mutual fund to ETF on vanguard's website. I don't know if its immediate thought. Not taxable.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jay22 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:29 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
jay22 wrote:
tj wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

I know I have to switch to a similar fund.

What I am saying is, I want to move from VGTSX to VXUS since it gives me better control to do TLH. I do not know if that is considered a taxable event or not.

Not a taxable event.

tj wrote:
GeraniumLover wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!


Are you asking whether you can make a 1031 like-kind exchange so that it is not a taxable event in order to switch your position from mutual funds to ETFs? I am pretty sure that cannot be done with securities...


I'm pretty sure you can switch from mutual fund to ETF on vanguard's website. I don't know if its immediate thought. Not taxable.

Thank you. I will call Vanguard and get it confirmed before I do the exchange.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:31 pm

jay22 wrote:
tj wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

I know I have to switch to a similar fund.

What I am saying is, I want to move from VGTSX to VXUS since it gives me better control to do TLH. I do not know if that is considered a taxable event or not.


Moving from VGTSX to VXUS is not a taxable event and one that the Vanguard reps can do automatically for you if you give them a call. I have not seen a way to do it from the website.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:35 pm

NMJack wrote:
island wrote:
NMJack wrote: THE END IS NEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I wish the same could be said about this lame 59 page thread.


:sharebeer


Are you kidding? This is the most entertaining thread on the entire forum. Perhaps the only one that is purely entertainment.

:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:45 pm

jay22 wrote:
tj wrote:
jay22 wrote:If I exchange my mutual funds to their corresponding ETFs in the taxable account, is that considered a taxable event? I feel like I am not able to take advantage of potential TLH opportunities with mutual funds. Today would have been the perfect day for that!



No you cannot sell and buy a different share class of the same fund to TLH. You'd need to switch to a similar fund.

I know I have to switch to a similar fund.

What I am saying is, I want to move from VGTSX to VXUS since it gives me better control to do TLH. I do not know if that is considered a taxable event or not.

If you change your share class from a Vanguard mutual fund to the corresponding ETF it is not a taxable event.

But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by furwut » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:47 pm

I was halfway serious about buying some stock today but when I logged onto Vanguard to make the exchange in my 401k account I get a message stating that they can not complete the transaction.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:47 pm

avalpert wrote:But you can TLH between mutual funds too - the only difference is the exchange happens at closing prices and can be done with the total dollar amount without concern for residual cash from share price differences.

This is correct. People are able to tax-loss harvest mutual fund shares as needed. It is pretty easy to do so as well. Here is a thread that documents how I tax-loss harvested VTIAX last December:
Tax-loss harvesting documented.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scsiguru » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:23 pm

Glad I moved to 100% AGG yesterday!!!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:24 pm

scsiguru wrote:Glad I moved to 100% AGG yesterday!!!

Me too!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:33 pm

scsiguru wrote:Glad I moved to 100% AGG yesterday!!!


Will you please let us all know when you are buying stocks again. Your prescience in this matter is manifest.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:43 pm

Just put my usual monthly order in for VTSAX a week early. :D

Nice to have some dry powder around to do so.

Have a good weekend, all!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:07 pm

And this is only the beginning!!


(of the rest of my life)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:22 pm

livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.

To those wondering about "RBD", it's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms

RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:22 pm

Did anyone else get an email from Vanguard saying not to panic?
Focusing on what you can control
Even during times of global uncertainty, Vanguard believes in the merits of a well-diversified portfolio that includes both domestic and international assets. Making changes to your plan based on market movements could derail your efforts to reach your goals.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by qwertyjazz » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:33 pm

mancich wrote:
NORDO wrote:
Urchina wrote:Keep calm and carry on!


Da5id wrote:Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.


Yep.

I did nothing back in August. Portfolio bottomed out something like -$15K from the previous high. Today it's +$43K from that point.

I'm sure it'll drop again today. And then it'll go up again.

The cycle continues...

:sharebeer


+1
We can talk about this forever, but markets eventually recover and then rise again. Unless there is a true apocalypse, in which case our portfolios are the least of our concerns...

I know. In fact I am never wrong. Wilde

That is why I am exercising my cross stock options on 1980's Japanese stocks, Weimar stocks and Confederate bonds
Stock markets always come back and they only do not if the apocalypse occurs
The good thing also is there will be no dilution in stock type or quantity by the time of the rebound so buy and hold will always work

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Theoretical » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:37 pm

scsiguru wrote:Glad I moved to 100% AGG yesterday!!!


Would you have posted that you were glad you lost 4-5% of your potential upside if Brexit had failed? I highly doubt it.
Last edited by Theoretical on Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:38 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:Did anyone else get an email from Vanguard saying not to panic?
Focusing on what you can control
Even during times of global uncertainty, Vanguard believes in the merits of a well-diversified portfolio that includes both domestic and international assets. Making changes to your plan based on market movements could derail your efforts to reach your goals.


Yes, but Bogleheads never panic (at least not about "freefalls") so it was not really directed at us. :D

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:42 pm

qwertyjazz wrote:That is why I am exercising my cross stock options on 1980's Japanese stocks, Weimar stocks and Confederate bonds


Shh! Me too. We don't want this to become a crowded trade now, do we?

qwertyjazz wrote:Stock markets always come back and they only do not if the apocalypse occurs
The good thing also is there will be no dilution in stock type or quantity by the time of the rebound so buy and hold will always work


It's not that buy and hold always works, just that the alternatives are poor. But I agree the overconfidence we often see here is dangerous, as is the home-country bias.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:43 pm

livesoft wrote:
triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.

I haven't decided what to do today. I might do something on Monday.

On Monday morning I will have some coffee, read the paper, and then decide what to do to enjoy the predicted beautiful warm sunny day :) .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lack_ey » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:45 pm

Theoretical wrote:
scsiguru wrote:Glad I moved to 100% AGG yesterday!!!


Would you have posted that you were glad you lost 4-5% of your potential upside if Brexit had failed? I highly doubt it.

The broad point stands, but I doubt that 4-5% loss would have happened. Markets were predicting Remain with pretty high probability, so a Remain outcome was largely priced in. Thus the effect would be expected to be asymmetrical, with more movement occurring for a Leave outcome than for a Remain outcome.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by boglephreak » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:53 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
livesoft wrote:
triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
scone wrote:It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy

Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.

I haven't decided what to do today. I might do something on Monday.

On Monday morning I will have some coffee, read the paper, and then decide what to do to enjoy the predicted beautiful warm sunny day :) .

i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?

qwertyjazz
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by qwertyjazz » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:53 pm

saltycaper wrote:
qwertyjazz wrote:That is why I am exercising my cross stock options on 1980's Japanese stocks, Weimar stocks and Confederate bonds


Shh! Me too. We don't want this to become a crowded trade now, do we?

qwertyjazz wrote:Stock markets always come back and they only do not if the apocalypse occurs
The good thing also is there will be no dilution in stock type or quantity by the time of the rebound so buy and hold will always work


It's not that buy and hold always works, just that the alternatives are poor. But I agree the overconfidence we often see here is dangerous, as is the home-country bias.

The truth is rarely pure and never simple Wilde again
Of course buy and hold makes the most sense for the most people, but only a character in a play could be convinced it was perfectly safe

This thread keeps making me think about one of my favorite plays so in that way it is a true gem

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:58 pm

boglephreak wrote:
ruralavalon wrote:
livesoft wrote:
triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:Ha! RBDs on a Friday do not have to acted upon. The Monday after a Friday RBD is always interesting. The weekend gives people time to look at their portfolios and make interesting decisions.


You are not rebalancing into VXUS because it is a Friday ? It is currently down 6.5% :!:

I recognize that it is still above June 14 levels, but still: if ever there were a case for using RBDs.

I haven't decided what to do today. I might do something on Monday.

On Monday morning I will have some coffee, read the paper, and then decide what to do to enjoy the predicted beautiful warm sunny day :) .

i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?


People who traded on margin will have to act especially with sharp contractions like these. The guess is most people bet, there will be Bremain and now we are ended with Brexit. Margin call close in 3 business days. Most people will decide on Mondays.
Central banks have time to respond on currency markets with planned moves.

No idea if the above make difference.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:59 pm

boglephreak wrote:i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?

There may or may not be a benefit of waiting until Monday, but if Monday is another big down day, then I think you will think there is a benefit. One cannot predict the future.

I think backtesting suggests that big Friday drops have a higher probability of being followed by a Monday drop than big drops on Monday through Thursday.
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boglephreak
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by boglephreak » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:28 pm

livesoft wrote:
boglephreak wrote:i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?

There may or may not be a benefit of waiting until Monday, but if Monday is another big down day, then I think you will think there is a benefit. One cannot predict the future.

I think backtesting suggests that big Friday drops have a higher probability of being followed by a Monday drop than big drops on Monday through Thursday.

thanks, this is interesting. i dont think much of this matters in the long run, but i saw that VXUS was leveling out for the most part, and FTSE 100 seemed to be rallying so i figured the initial plunge wasnt going to continue. i will watch and learn. if it drops some more, maybe i will buy some more since i am under my AA for int'l.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:35 pm

livesoft wrote:
boglephreak wrote:i believe you and livesoft have both said wait for monday (maybe others). whats the benefit of waiting until monday?

There may or may not be a benefit of waiting until Monday, but if Monday is another big down day, then I think you will think there is a benefit. One cannot predict the future.

I think backtesting suggests that big Friday drops have a higher probability of being followed by a Monday drop than big drops on Monday through Thursday.


Although I agree with you livesoft, there has never been a Brexit, so who knows?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:42 pm

I rationalize the Friday - Monday thing as follows: Many folks are not paying attention, then when they look over the weekend when they have time, they go "OMG!" and submit the same orders that folks paying attention on Friday did. However, on other days of the week, the "weekenders" simply don't pay attention and do not contribute to any further drop the day after a big drop on Monday through Thursday. Anyways, it is just my idle mind making up a possible reason.

I believe that RodC's backtesting included buying on Fridays. I will note that a big Friday drop was followed by the Mother-of-all drops on Monday occurred in October 1987.
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