U.S. stocks in freefall

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LowER
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LowER » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:52 am

easye418 wrote:
BanditKing wrote:
easye418 wrote:As a newbie to Boglehead, is this one of those days that everyone mentions "you need to stick to the plan and never sell!"?


Absolutely. There's a few things you can do around the edges, but yea, just stick with your IPS. If you want to fiddle (ie, buy some things now that the are on sale), that rule should be written into your IPS in fact.


IPS? = Investment Planning Strategy?


Investment Policy Statement

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InvestorNewb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorNewb » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:53 am

What is going on? :oops:
Last edited by InvestorNewb on Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

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k66
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:53 am

kingomri wrote:This is my first significant downturn since I first started investing. They say you don't really know your risk tolerance until you experience a bear market. So far, I'm feeling pretty good - I'm still rooting for more drops and staying low for a while so I can buy cheaper when I up my 401(k) contributions in Q4!\

On the more unfortunate side, I dumped my entire yearly traditional IRA contribution into the market last Monday, but I'm not too upset.


I had the same thing happen in April 2010: I had just moved all my savings into a BH style portfolio and then watched as the market tanked almost 20% over the next six months or so. But I did hold on and happy I did. And I'll gladly do the same this time around as well, except what I will do differently is make an attempt at buying more equities (from Fixed Income and cash) as we get into this slide.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

easye418
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by easye418 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:55 am

k66 wrote:
kingomri wrote:This is my first significant downturn since I first started investing. They say you don't really know your risk tolerance until you experience a bear market. So far, I'm feeling pretty good - I'm still rooting for more drops and staying low for a while so I can buy cheaper when I up my 401(k) contributions in Q4!\

On the more unfortunate side, I dumped my entire yearly traditional IRA contribution into the market last Monday, but I'm not too upset.


I had the same thing happen in April 2010: I had just moved all my savings into a BH style portfolio and then watched as the market tanked almost 20% over the next six months or so. But I did hold on and happy I did. And I'll gladly do the same this time around as well, except what I will do differently is make an attempt at buying more equities (from Fixed Income and cash) as we get into this slide.



Thanks for posting this. This is my first go around on BH style portfolio. Thankfully my first increased contribution is this Friday.

acc17
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by acc17 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:56 am

Curious, did anyone in here buy following the 1k drop?

BanditKing
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BanditKing » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:56 am

easye418 wrote:IPS? = Investment Planning Strategy?

I did sell my bonds and exchanged last Friday. Shoulda just stayed to the course.


Investment Policy Statement. Recommended for new Bogleheads to outline what "stay the course" actually means for them. Some great examples in the wiki.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement

Browser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:01 am

It's the commodities, Stupid! Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention. Commodities started down on May 15 and are now down by 25% since then (commodity basket). This is a true DUH! moment. This bear isn't done by a long shot.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Miguelito » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:05 am

Miguelito wrote:I dunno about freefall, but while I have left our retirement accounts untouched (they represent over 80% of our investments), I did sell off all of my taxable account positions recently and we are 100% cash.

I think this market is going to tread water for a while (as it has all year), and rates will go up so I am not confident on bonds either. I think there is a bigger chance of a 10-15% correction than there is of a 5-10% rally in the next year. Rates are almost surely going up sometime in the next year, so I'll wait it out and see how that pans out before going back in on the taxable side.

Yes, I'm bad and trying to time the market, but for the most part, I'm pretty good in the macro sense.


My quote above from 6/10 this year, after cashing out at around 18,000. Today looks like a good time to go back in after saving myself a 15% loss.

Might move my 401k closer to 100% stocks too.
Last edited by Miguelito on Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:06 am, edited 2 times in total.

Thebigc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:05 am

This looks like fund selling, and the big name buyers are taking advantage of it. Something else seems to have happened, there are large trades but some of the drops never happened and they are not sure what happened.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bracket » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:05 am

acc17 wrote:Curious, did anyone in here buy following the 1k drop?


Yes.

I've bought VSS and IJS so far today. (intl small cap and domestic small cap value). IJS was down 20% or something crazy so I bought some. I have a pending order for VWO at 30.

Probably tax loss harvest today as well.

Basically just following my IPS with some spare cash I had sitting around.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bracket » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:09 am

Wow IJS is roaring back up. (Up 10% since I bought) I guess I should have bought more.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:12 am

Browser wrote:It's the commodities, Stupid! Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention. Commodities started down on May 15 and are now down by 25% since then (commodity basket). This is a true DUH! moment. This bear isn't done by a long shot.


It's almost always a "true DUH! moment" in hindsight. :happy

I know my predictions are just guesses so I don't try to predict. What I do know is that since I first noticed the stock market way back in the 1970s it has gone up and down, sometimes dramatically, but the overall trend has been up. I feel completely (oddly) unemotional about this downturn. The only question I have for myself is, "Why am I watching?" So back to work.

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Bustoff
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bustoff » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:13 am

Dow is up 500 points from low at open.
Never saw the Dow go up 500 points in one day. Time to take some profits.

whadyaknow
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by whadyaknow » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:13 am

Vanguard's website has very high latencies right now. It took me 10 minutes to place one trade for harvesting losses :/
Schwab on the other hand, is working great. I'm so happy to have split my assets across two brokerages right now.
Last edited by whadyaknow on Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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overst33r
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by overst33r » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:14 am

Image

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Bustoff
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bustoff » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:20 am

InvestorNewb wrote:What is going on? :oops:

The Duke's are trying to corner the market!

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:27 am

InvestorNewb wrote:What is going on? :oops:


Stocks are going on sale. Great buying opportunities coming up, possibly.

As a young investor I am finally starting to feel happy about stocks going on sale again. I was getting depressed by the bull market recently. :mrgreen:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Hunky-dory » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:34 am

Bustoff wrote:
InvestorNewb wrote:What is going on? :oops:

The Duke's are trying to corner the market!


Is this all being caused by the latest USDA monthly crop report on Florida oranges?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FillorKill » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:37 am

Where are the optimists? The DOW is UP over 600 points (from the session lows.... :D )

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jstash » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:39 am

Did anybody see what happened to VOE near the open? Down about 25% then a quick recovery? Another flash crash or what?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by autonomy » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:42 am

overst33r wrote:Image


Thank you, I was going to post this one. I saw a line in one of the panic articles saying "stocks in Asia opened lower, the markets are reacting to a sharp sell-off on Wall Street on Friday".

I can already tell what today's headlines will be :shock:

Browser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:45 am

They call these moves "corrections." I've never understood what that means. Was the price of stocks "incorrect" before? If it was incorrect why were we owning them? Or maybe they were just being "bad stocks" and needed to be taken out behind the woodshed to be corrected. Don't you love this stock-talk?
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:46 am

InvestorNewb wrote:What is going on? :oops:


We're getting a nice little sale. I'll be buying through this, and with any luck my average cost per share will go down. Thank you, Mr. Market. :D
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by beammeupscotty » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:52 am

Bracket wrote:Wow IJS is roaring back up. (Up 10% since I bought) I guess I should have bought more.


Did it really briefly trade at $78.41? Wow. Good catch.

Image

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Patzer » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:58 am

Browser wrote:They call these moves "corrections." I've never understood what that means. Was the price of stocks "incorrect" before? If it was incorrect why were we owning them? Or maybe they were just being "bad stocks" and needed to be taken out behind the woodshed to be corrected. Don't you love this stock-talk?


If you believe that markets act rationally...
Let's say the market had a 40% chance of an event priced in. When that chance suddenly becomes 100%, the market has to correct to the change in known information.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:03 am

I'm going to wait until the bad stocks have been corrected and prices are correct before investing. Who said this was difficult? :mrgreen:
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ginmqi » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:05 am

FillorKill wrote:Where are the optimists? The DOW is UP over 600 points (from the session lows.... :D )


Happy camper checking in. I see another happy dude/dudette a few posts above as well.

Again as a young investor I was getting depressed about the bull market lately (I got my career started and invest starting during 07/2013) and now I am finally starting to feel some happiness since equities are starting to go on sale again! :sharebeer

scone
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:06 am

Woo-hoo, Jesse's gonna shave! :Fist pump: :sharebeer

https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/ ... 1689252868
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by EyeYield » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:34 am

acc17 wrote:Curious, did anyone in here buy following the 1k drop?

Not following. Since I am still sitting on cash left over from last Decembers TLH, I placed some ridiculously low orders last night, for shares in some of my index ETF's, just in case there was a sell off. The market dropped so fast that my orders got filled below my already low order price. LUCK!
I usually reinvest in January, but this year I fell off the BH wagon and am playing the market timing game.
Not recommended!
I need to go to a Market Timing Anonomous meeting tonight. :D
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle

sharpjm
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sharpjm » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:37 am


EzM
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by EzM » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:43 am

acc17 wrote:Curious, did anyone in here buy following the 1k drop?


I managed to get a few shares of Schwab US Broad Market at the low and was surprised that the order actually filled.

It might be time for me to keep the Schwab checking acct funded a bit to have access to instant contributions...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by g$$ » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:56 am

weeeeeeeee! here we go!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by johnubc » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:57 am

Have I missed something??

Thebigc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:59 am

easye418 wrote:
BanditKing wrote:Never fails - I maxed my 401k about 4 weeks ago!

I think the best predictor of the market's performance is that it goes up just before my contribution goes in, and down right afterwards. And now that I'm done for the year, why not crash. *sigh*


As a newbie to Boglehead, is this one of those days that everyone mentions "you need to stick to the plan and never sell!"?

Being 26 and 100 stocks, I just need to forget to look at Vanguard for a while.


Look here little one, years and years from now when you are looking at grand childrens grand childrens grand childrens with your cold dead robotic eyes, and they ask you have you ever been really scared the way little robot children do. You can say, twice. Once when you saw the market crash more than a thousand points in a matter of minutes, and big old mister BearWhaleWolf came howling and roaring down gobbling up all the investors money, and he came swiming right up to you with hiss massive teeth, claws and fins, and he said you better run away little investor or I will huff and I will puff and I will blow you off course and gobble up all your delicious money. Now you can look at those little kids and tell them, " I looked old BigBadMobyYogi right in the eye and said "not today big boy, I stay the course." And then he ran away and he gave back some of the money, and then he ran back to china nad he gorged himself.

The second time of course is when President Trump revealed that his hair was actually real and alive and you ran away in fear and panic.

Now put on your rally cap and find out why you don't panic. Of course this may take some time, but you gotta cowboy up when the bull tries to buck you off.

Thebigc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:00 am

easye418 wrote:
BanditKing wrote:Never fails - I maxed my 401k about 4 weeks ago!

I think the best predictor of the market's performance is that it goes up just before my contribution goes in, and down right afterwards. And now that I'm done for the year, why not crash. *sigh*


As a newbie to Boglehead, is this one of those days that everyone mentions "you need to stick to the plan and never sell!"?

Being 26 and 100 stocks, I just need to forget to look at Vanguard for a while.


Look here little one, years and years from now when you are looking at grand childrens grand childrens grand childrens with your cold dead robotic eyes, and they ask you have you ever been really scared the way little robot children do. You can say, twice. Once when you saw the market crash more than a thousand points in a matter of minutes, and big old mister BearWhaleWolf came howling and roaring down gobbling up all the investors money, and he came swiming right up to you with hiss massive teeth, claws and fins, and he said you better run away little investor or I will huff and I will puff and I will blow you off course and gobble up all your delicious money. Now you can look at those little kids and tell them, " I looked old BigBadMobyYogi right in the eye and said "not today big boy, I stay the course." And then he ran away and he gave back some of the money, and then he ran back to china nad he gorged himself.

The second time of course is when President Trump revealed that his hair was actually real and alive and you ran away in fear and panic.

Now put on your rally cap and find out why you don't panic. Of course this may take some time, but you gotta cowboy up when the bull tries to buck you off.

FillorKill
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FillorKill » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:00 am

johnubc wrote:Have I missed something??

Flash crash (version 2.0) at the open. No biggie.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:00 am

Browser wrote:Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention.


You've been posting doom and gloom posts for the past 3 years...

But I'm glad you're happy that you're right for once. Still doesn't make you an expert predictor, and it still doesn't make it easy to predict "downdrafts"
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tyler_cracker » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:04 am

HomerJ wrote:You've been posting this for the past 3 years... Pretty much every thread you have posted has been doom and gloom.

But I'm glad you're happy that you're right for once. Still doesn't make you an expert predictor, and it still doesn't make it easy to predict "downdrafts"


:thumbsup

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Munir
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Munir » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:08 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Munir wrote:A few weeks ago I transferred a bunch of money from my bond-heavy balanced fund in my IRA into Total Stock Market ... Now it looks like I will be reversing this failed "strategy" :D .
Ha ha funny joke. :wink:


I should have explained that by reversed strategy I meant that I will be withdrawing from my bond fund-loaded balanced fund for my RMD instead of withdrawing from my stock fund as I had planned. I am not selling my stock fund and might buy more of it today.

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Bounca
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bounca » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:12 am

I've learned a lesson, have some more extra cash on the sidelines for times like this. :oops:

I had a little and also picked up IJS at 83.98 this morning sometime around 10AM.

overst33r
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by overst33r » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:14 am

Bounca wrote:I've learned a lesson, have some more extra cash on the sidelines for times like this. :oops:

I had a little and also picked up IJS at 83.98 this morning sometime around 10AM.


Couldn't you just re-balance with your bonds (assuming you have some)?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:14 am

Munir wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Munir wrote:A few weeks ago I transferred a bunch of money from my bond-heavy balanced fund in my IRA into Total Stock Market ... Now it looks like I will be reversing this failed "strategy" :D .
Ha ha funny joke. :wink:


I should have explained that by reversed strategy I meant that I will be withdrawing from my bond fund-loaded balanced fund for my RMD instead of withdrawing from my stock fund as I had planned. I am not selling my stock fund and might buy more of it today.
If you bought S&P 500 at 9:30 AM this morning you would be up 5.5% at this point in time. NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY US.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sawhorse » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:15 am

What a comeback it's made since opening. It's pretty exciting to watch the streaming quotes. Almost like a sports event. Still down for the day but only by a little. Sucks for those who sold in the morning!

Come on Dow, you're the next contestant on The Price Is Right!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by overst33r » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:17 am

sawhorse wrote:What a comeback it's made since opening. It's pretty exciting to watch the streaming quotes. Almost like a sports event. Still down for the day but only by a little. Sucks for those who sold in the morning!

Come on Dow, you're the next contestant on The Price Is Right!


Google finance news snippets are GREAT.
DING DONG THE DIP IS DEAD!! BUY BUY BUY!!!
DEAD CAT BOUNCE! DEAD CAT BOUNCE!! BECAUSE PHYSICS. TECHNICALS. CHARTS AND GRAPHS. PARABOLIC FLIGHT!!!

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:21 am

sawhorse wrote:Come on Dow, you're the next contestant on The Price Is Right!
It's like "The Big Wheel" of stocks.

Image

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ofcmetz
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:26 am

I just woke up. Doesn't seem like it's down too much. Only 155 points.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sawhorse » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:31 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
sawhorse wrote:Come on Dow, you're the next contestant on The Price Is Right!
It's like "The Big Wheel" of stocks.

Image

Or Plinko. The coin is going left, now it's going right, oh it's back to left. Which way will it end?

Image
Last edited by sawhorse on Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:32 am

HomerJ wrote:
Browser wrote:Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention.


You've been posting doom and gloom posts for the past 3 years...

But I'm glad you're happy that you're right for once. Still doesn't make you an expert predictor, and it still doesn't make it easy to predict "downdrafts"


Funny, I've got a broken clock that's right twice a day, but a slightly slow clock that's hardly ever right.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:33 am

ofcmetz wrote:I just woke up. Doesn't seem like it's down too much. Only 155 points.
Sleeping is the perfect stratigy during these trying times. Don't do something just sleep. 5% swings in a few hours is dangerous.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HongKonger » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:34 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Munir wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Munir wrote:A few weeks ago I transferred a bunch of money from my bond-heavy balanced fund in my IRA into Total Stock Market ... Now it looks like I will be reversing this failed "strategy" :D .
Ha ha funny joke. :wink:


I should have explained that by reversed strategy I meant that I will be withdrawing from my bond fund-loaded balanced fund for my RMD instead of withdrawing from my stock fund as I had planned. I am not selling my stock fund and might buy more of it today.
If you bought S&P 500 at 9:30 AM this morning you would be up 5.5% at this point in time. NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY US.


Yup - I placed a buy order for VTI on Friday night for what I thought was a silly price. Caught the opening drop. I'm happy.

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