Browser wrote:technovelist wrote:Browser wrote:technovelist wrote:kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!
Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!
If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...
No, there are three states:
1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.
There are no threads about being 100% bonds because bonds suck as badly as stocks. "Hold" is the only option left -- kinda like a deer frozen in the headlights because it doesn't know which way to jump. Of course, the deer ends up getting run over while it is standing there doing nothing....
We need threads on "100% dry powder."