U.S. stocks in freefall

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VictoriaF
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:32 pm

Browser wrote:
technovelist wrote:
Browser wrote:
technovelist wrote:
kenyan wrote:The "inverse lots of new posts excoriating bonds and extolling the virtues of 100% stock" indicator is alive and well!


Yes, I think I should open a hedge fund that invests based on that indicator. It would probably do better than a lot of them do!

If you buy stocks when the indicator is flashing, does that mean you should go short when it's quiet? You should have been short the last couple of years...


No, there are three states:

1. When there are many threads about 100% or more stocks being the only correct AA, sell.
2. When there are many threads about never being able to retire, why 100% bonds is the only correct AA, etc., buy.
3. The rest of the time, hold.

There are no threads about being 100% bonds because bonds suck as badly as stocks. "Hold" is the only option left -- kinda like a deer frozen in the headlights because it doesn't know which way to jump. Of course, the deer ends up getting run over while it is standing there doing nothing....


We need threads on "100% dry powder."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:47 pm

Browser wrote:...There are no threads about being 100% bonds because bonds suck as badly as stocks. "Hold" is the only option left -- kinda like a deer frozen in the headlights because it doesn't know which way to jump. Of course, the deer ends up getting run over while it is standing there doing nothing....
Which is where the analogy breaks down. And is where you want to be careful.

The financial industry wants you to think that if you stand there doing nothing you will get run over, because mostly they make money when you do things.

I have any number of times said that in 2008-2009 my wife and I were like a deer caught in the headlights. It didn't work out badly. Standing still like a deer caught in the headlights is usually a pretty good option, if you are standing in a fairly reasonable place to begin with.

I haven't had any collisions with deer, thank goodness, but I have definitely run over squirrels that would have been OK if they'd just sat still, but at the last possible instant they jumped the wrong way.

If you think you need to be constantly hopping about, feeling that you are in constant danger of imminent disaster, then there is something wrong with what you are doing--and also it is not going to work. When I was a kid and it was sprinkling, my dad would sometimes say "Well, we don't need a raincoat just to get to the car, we can just run between the raindrops." And then he'd put on a sort of act of broken-field running. I was a really little tyke and I thought he really could. But he couldn't. I would get sprinkled, despite my best efforts to dodge the raindrops, but I wasn't enough of a critical observer to realize that he was getting sprinkled, too.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jfet » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:56 pm

This is true. Inflation, at less than 2%, is not exactly a Ferrari in terms of danger standing still in front of it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorNewb » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:49 pm

Threads like these are a reminder why it's a good idea to simply buy and hold.

Since the start of this thread, Aug 08, 2011, the Total US Stock Market is up 61.67%.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:53 pm

nisiprius wrote:If you think you need to be constantly hopping about, feeling that you are in constant danger of imminent disaster, then there is something wrong with what you are doing--and also it is not going to work. When I was a kid and it was sprinkling, my dad would sometimes say "Well, we don't need a raincoat just to get to the car, we can just run between the raindrops." And then he'd put on a sort of act of broken-field running. I was a really little tyke and I thought he really could. But he couldn't. I would get sprinkled, despite my best efforts to dodge the raindrops, but I wasn't enough of a critical observer to realize that he was getting sprinkled, too.


^ That is awesome. Will have to try it with my younger one. When my son was younger, I remember telling him that boys were made with waterproof skin and that it was ok that there was only one umbrella in the car which we were going to let his mother use.

I woke up today a few minutes ago and had a text from my dad telling me the market was hammered while I was sleeping. He said that he wished he had slept threw it. I knew I could get on the bogleheads and that this thread would be revived. I love the little routines in life.

Last year most of my new retirement money went into fixed income and we ended the year almost on point with our desired allocation. It appears that I will actually be putting some substantial money into equities this year if this continues. My annual rebalance date is approaching in March, so we will see. I'm experiencing things from the point of an accumulator who still has a job and is working. I understand that for those who are retired or close, these kinds of days are probably pretty tough.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jay69 » Mon Apr 07, 2014 1:45 pm

I have not seen this thread in some time, plus I wanted to learn how to post a chart/picture. Its a one month chart, the last few days I see a drop!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jay69 » Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:06 pm

Coming back from lunch today they were creating some news about the biggest drop since 2011. I should go a look that up but will admit that I'm to lazy. I'm juts happy I learned how to post an image!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ricola » Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:23 pm

I dropped some coin into the market today, that's a buy signal for me. :sharebeer
Last edited by Ricola on Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jmndu99 » Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:31 pm

Ricola wrote:I dropped some coin into the market today, that's a buy single for me. :sharebeer


+1

In other news, gasoline is up

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sketchy9 » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:39 pm

I was really hoping to see this thread bumped today. Especially after the S&P lost over 2%.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:43 pm

sketchy9 wrote:I was really hoping to see this thread bumped today. Especially after the S&P lost over 2%.


And so you bumped it yourself.

Here is an interesting dichotomy: Whenever the market needs a bump, this thread is bumped instead.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:51 pm

Sold some shares of VNQ this morning as part of a rebalancing move since it didn't make any sense that they were up in the morning while everything else was down. They ended down for the day like everything else.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jfet » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:57 pm

One of the few individual stocks I own was up 7% today (a small mining stock that just produced it's first batch of 40,000 ounces gold 14 million pounds copper)

Was nice to have that green amid the sea of red.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:09 pm

No catalyst for today's 3% mugging of the Nasdaq. That's how it happens -- the efficient market decided that yesterday's efficiency was way wrong. The EMH fairy forget to send out a memo.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:24 pm

I wouldn't mind seeing a RBM (really bad month) or three. We plan to Roth convert some of DW's tIRA every year and we could do more at our budgeted tax cost if stocks would just go down. We market timed taking our larger than we need RMDs already this year so down thru December is fine. :) I will wait on the Roth conversion until the timing seems right or the year is about to run out. Probably it won't matter in the long run but It's something to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:41 pm

Agreed. This 5 year engineered bull market has been no friend of long term accumulators who have had to buy at higher and higher prices. Be much better off for these folks if the market had stayed in purgatory for the last five years. Be careful what you wish for.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by z3r0c00l » Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:54 pm

Browser wrote:Agreed. This 5 year engineered bull market has been no friend of long term accumulators who have had to buy at higher and higher prices. Be much better off for these folks if the market had stayed in purgatory for the last five years. Be careful what you wish for.


Or we could hit Dow 30,000 in a few years, and never get below 20,000 again. That is a fairly likely outcome.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dr.j » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:11 am

Very excited about the stock market "correction". After spending the past 10 years getting completely out of debt (house and all!), we are at the beginning stages of initiating our retirement plan. Just opened my Vanguard taxable account. Hope it keeps falling. Beginning our dollar-cost averaging plan as the stock market falls is music to my ears! (and I'm not trying to time the market... it's just happy coincidence).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kenner » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:22 am

Is the stock market decline permanent or temporary?

Have US companies announced that they are slashing their dividend payments?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jfet » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:28 am

Jfet wrote:One of the few individual stocks I own was up 7% today (a small mining stock that just produced it's first batch of 40,000 ounces gold 14 million pounds copper)

Was nice to have that green amid the sea of red.


Now it is up 20% more today. A big thanks to Goldman Sachs and their $1050 gold prediction letting me buy this stock at a 50% discount.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by C8H18Engineer » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:43 am

kenner wrote:Is the stock market decline permanent or temporary?

Have US companies announced that they are slashing their dividend payments?


If you look at divstat, you'll see the number of companies decreasing dividends is not looking good, approaching the levels seen around end of 2008. But who knows? This is just one indicator.

Code: Select all

Number of Companies Declaring Decreases  
       2013       2013       2012       2011       2010       2009       2008       2007
         28         44          6          8         14         62         16          3
         32         21          8          3         10         79          8          5
         31         73          6          4          6         81         14          5
                    21          9          6         10         76         16          4
                    18         11          5         10         64         19          4
                    20         13          3          2         38         18          1
                    14          5          6          7         35         21          4
                     6         17          1          6         28         23          3
                    20         23          6          9         16         28          3
                     6         26          5          8         12         37          2
                    15         27          6          2         22         53          5
                    16         93          7          4         14         42          5

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hiddensee » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:49 am

It seems like there were quite a lot in 2013, especially for a year with spectacular returns.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kenner » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:57 am

C8H18Engineer wrote:
kenner wrote:Is the stock market decline permanent or temporary?

Have US companies announced that they are slashing their dividend payments?


If you look at divstat, you'll see the number of companies decreasing dividends is not looking good, approaching the levels seen around end of 2008. But who knows? This is just one indicator.

Code: Select all

Number of Companies Declaring Decreases  
       2013       2013       2012       2011       2010       2009       2008       2007
         28         44          6          8         14         62         16          3
         32         21          8          3         10         79          8          5
         31         73          6          4          6         81         14          5
                    21          9          6         10         76         16          4
                    18         11          5         10         64         19          4
                    20         13          3          2         38         18          1
                    14          5          6          7         35         21          4
                     6         17          1          6         28         23          3
                    20         23          6          9         16         28          3
                     6         26          5          8         12         37          2
                    15         27          6          2         22         53          5
                    16         93          7          4         14         42          5


Thank you C8, those stats do seem scary.

I hope this doesn't represent a trend for most US companies going forward, but I do not know to make that determination.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Angelus359 » Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:27 pm

I buy every Monday. I hope it falls the most on Mondays.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MichDad » Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:35 pm

I'll start to worry when the US and international stock markets, REITs, and commodities funds all decline by 90 percent. Until then, this is all noise.

MichDad

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jfet » Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:43 pm

MichDad wrote:I'll start to worry when the US and international stock markets, REITs, and commodities funds all decline by 90 percent. Until then, this is all noise.

MichDad


That would not cause me to worry because I would be dead from the riots.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Apr 11, 2014 1:03 pm

Gosh darn it all, made me look.

The percentage of stocks in my portfolio is 0.8% below my target which if memory serves is maybe 0.2% to 0.4% below where it was a few months ago. Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool is saying "OK--Your current asset allocation closely matches your long-term target."
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Fri Apr 11, 2014 1:12 pm

nisiprius wrote:Gosh darn it all, made me look.

The percentage of stocks in my portfolio is 0.8% below my target which if memory serves is maybe 0.2% to 0.4% below where it was a few months ago. Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool is saying "OK--Your current asset allocation closely matches your long-term target."

Are you saying your target is 0.8% stocks? That sounds about right to me. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pteam » Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:08 pm

Lol this thread is too funny

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Wildebeest » Fri Apr 11, 2014 6:18 pm

Bad things happen to good people.

However "U.S. stocks in free fall" is not one of them. They represent a buying opportunity.

This thread has to be bumped, when there is a more than just noise though.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by markenx » Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:32 am

Keep gooig down!
For whatever reason, I had some cash I wanted to invest but was busy with life. Seeing all these red news made me start DCAing it into my mutual funds, and guess which one needs love: Us Mkt! Still have some more cash so hopefully we see more red!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:23 am

Hope for a freefall. The worst thing that could possibly happen is if the market keeps going up -- it's already hugely overvalued with low expected returns. Freefall! Freefall!
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LH » Sat Apr 12, 2014 6:04 pm

RUN!

RUN!

the SKY! the SKY!


or.....

just stay the course

I will see you at sp500 666 : )

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3cb7838e-a547 ... ab7de.html

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:12 am

One of these days, this thread will get bumped and the market will drop 20%. You just have to keep the faith that owning stocks will make you cry and feel really, really stupid sooner or later......
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:12 am

Browser wrote:One of these days, this thread will get bumped and the market will drop 20%. You just have to keep the faith that owning stocks will make you cry and feel really, really stupid sooner or later......


When that happens, everyone in this thread will be considered a financial guru for calling the crash, and we will get invited to TV and radio interviews.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rob » Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:20 am

Browser wrote:One of these days, this thread will get bumped and the market will drop 20%. You just have to keep the faith that owning stocks will make you cry and feel really, really stupid sooner or later......

I'm a firm believer that part of your portfolio should scare you to death and part should bore you to death...... the trick is getting the right mix :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:06 pm

This thread has run its course and is locked.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:29 pm

By member request (via a reported post) and concurrence of the moderators, I have removed a number of off-topic posts (including a naval battle and a black swan movie image). This thread is now unlocked.

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:39 am

Thank you. We love our freefall thread. :sharebeer
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorNewb » Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:45 am

I agree with keeping this thread open. It's one of my favorite threads and a good reminder why we should simply buy and hold.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chaz » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:07 am

Ricola wrote:I dropped some coin into the market today, that's a buy signal for me. :sharebeer

Bitcoin?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar » Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:08 pm

NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with mostly modest gains on Thursday, though the S&P 500 notched its biggest weekly advance since July as Morgan Stanley and General Electric rallied after strong results.

The two were the latest to post earnings that topped expectations, helping to lift the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to their fourth straight daily advance.

One day this thread will be correct ... :(

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chaz » Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:13 pm

Leeraar wrote:
NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with mostly modest gains on Thursday, though the S&P 500 notched its biggest weekly advance since July as Morgan Stanley and General Electric rallied after strong results.

The two were the latest to post earnings that topped expectations, helping to lift the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to their fourth straight daily advance.

One day this thread will be correct ... :(

L.

Maybe not in the near future. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:02 pm

Thought this maybe a good time to get this back to the top before someone starts a new thread :wink:

When I was out today at lunch the radio folk were thinking the world was ending :annoyed
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Now across the pond maybe something to talk about today, but then again it may not!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:21 pm

Do you think by reviving this thread you can ward off evil Bear spirits, or something? Kinda like waving incense around the room...
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

TheRightKost87
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheRightKost87 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:23 pm

Browser wrote:Do you think by reviving this thread you can ward off evil Bear spirits, or something? Kinda like waving incense around the room...


I'm more hoping it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I want to make a Roth IRA contribution in the near future :moneybag
"The problem with diversification is that it works, whether or not we want it to"

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Trader Joe » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:41 pm

Great thread. Everything seems to be down and in the red today. Very nice...

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dbCooperAir
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:42 pm

Browser wrote:Do you think by reviving this thread you can ward off evil Bear spirits, or something? Kinda like waving incense around the room...


Never really thought about it but that's as good of plan as any, its all part of this new trading system I have devised. Every time I send this thread to the top my subscribers send me 1% AUM.
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

Gary Guss
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Gary Guss » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:47 pm

the Sky is falling, the Sky is falling!

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Dutch
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dutch » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:53 pm

This thread is like an old friend :P

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