U.S. stocks in freefall

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thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:36 pm

Is stock in free fall yet? :beer

munemaker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:39 pm

thangngo wrote:Is stock in free fall yet? :beer


Trust me. When the stock market is in free fall, you will know. You won't have to ask.

MrNewEngland
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MrNewEngland » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:57 pm

Sell everything and put the cash under your mattress.

ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:58 pm

MrNewEngland wrote:Sell everything and put the cash under your mattress.


That would be under the mattress you just sold? :twisted:

RM
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best2u
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by best2u » Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:01 pm

Those of us with old mattresses do not need lumpier beds. :sharebeer
“There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” Will Rogers

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:23 pm

The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.

protagonist
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Low correlation between Dow and S+P 500

Post by protagonist » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:34 pm

This is vaguely interesting, though I imagine it doesn't mean much...probably just noise, and a good opportunity to publish an article. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-do ... 2017-07-06

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5th_Dimension
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 5th_Dimension » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:52 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.

Cry and buy... I like that! :sharebeer

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:56 pm

I have a confession to make.

Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest. :D

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dougger5
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dougger5 » Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:47 pm

bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.

Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest. :D


I have an automatic investment set up for my Roth that goes in every Wednesday...kind of a DCA move.

Darnit...missed it by a day this week...
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:49 pm

bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.

Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest. :D


This looks like the type of message you'll see right before a 25% dip.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:54 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.

Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest. :D


This looks like the type of message you'll see right before a 25% dip.



Haha.. That would be funny wouldn't it!

It's fine by me, I am accumulating my investments right now. If it weren't for the effect a stock market crash would have on the livelihood of families and retired folk, I'd hope for a 50% drop right now. :beer

bayview
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:44 pm

Well dang, just when I thought we'd have a little dip where I'd do a bit of Roth conversions, total US is back up again. Stupid markets.

:D

(yeah, yeah; I know)
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:34 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.


I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

bayview
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bayview » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:55 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.


I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".

Well, you know it's coming. It's the nature of the beast.

Factor in a 30% drop (or 50%) in the equity fraction of your holdings, and see what that does to your total portfolio paper worth. If it's too much; if it will make you panic or lose sleep at night, adjust your AA to where you feel you can ride it out.

To me, this is an important part of investing: know that something WILL go down dramatically (stocks, bonds, or both), and do a trial gut check on just how much you can tolerate without panicking and selling at a loss. Then if necessary, adjust your AA to hit that point. Then sit back, buckle up, and prepare yourself mentally. Chances are, it will get better after x period of time. But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jul 07, 2017 5:23 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.


I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".


If you think about it, even now is a great buying opportunity if the market is higher in the future. We've been on an upward trend for so long now (compared to past volatility) I just think a drop will be a little hard to watch. Anyway, we probably shouldn't be looking.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:15 pm

Image

Is this Finally the Year?
Sell down to the sleeping point. As far as asset classes go, it is hard to know when you are in a bubble, and if you are in one, when it will pop. ~ Ed Thorpe

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:24 pm

Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.

aristotelian
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aristotelian » Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:37 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.


Interesting theory. The culture does seem less speculative these days. Bogleheads and Mr MM have done a lot to make index investing cool.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:43 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.


I don't know, that sounds too much like pre-2007. Weren't people saying all the financial regulations we had adopted post-2000 were going to prevent wild swings in the market etc.?

bayview wrote:But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.


I like it, the Odysseus theory of investing. This thread is evidence there's too many of us who want to know if we can resist the call of the sirens, either for the first time or for the Nth time. Or maybe we just want to hear it again.

In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:22 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.
I don't know, that sounds too much like pre-2007. Weren't people saying all the financial regulations we had adopted post-2000 were going to prevent wild swings in the market etc.?
In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.

Not the same, Vanguard's $3,000,000,000,000.00 AUM is 100% voluntary. The smart money will go where smart money goes. Smart money is beyond regulation and shoe shine boys, it flows like water in perfect harmony with the Tao.

deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:59 am

Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:07 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.


VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!

deltaneutral83
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by deltaneutral83 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:22 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.


VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!


Yes of course, my comment was more tongue in cheek in keeping with the tradition of this thread. 4.5% drop in a month though.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:27 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:
MotoTrojan wrote:
deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.


VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!


Yes of course, my comment was more tongue in cheek in keeping with the tradition of this thread. 4.5% drop in a month though.


Gotcha, of course. A REAL free fall would be Ethereum, YIKES.

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:26 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
bayview wrote:But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.


I like it, the Odysseus theory of investing. This thread is evidence there's too many of us who want to know if we can resist the call of the sirens, either for the first time or for the Nth time. Or maybe we just want to hear it again.

In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.


The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events. Visualize all the terrible things that could happen to take the emotional pain out of them when and if they do. People typically don't like to think about bad things happening to them, but the old stoics claimed it really did help.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:29 pm

dougger5 wrote:
bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.

Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest. :D


I have an automatic investment set up for my Roth that goes in every Wednesday...kind of a DCA move.

Darnit...missed it by a day this week...


Well, you could market time and change to Tuesdays. . . . :D

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:45 pm

sreynard wrote:The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events.
Like when Bentley the dog was exposed to Ebola? I stayed the course and bought stock to keep my AA in line. Those shares have been very good to me. Today I bought some REITs, gott'a keep the AA in balance. My portfolio flows like water, following the Way.

barnaclebob
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by barnaclebob » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:50 pm

Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:52 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
sreynard wrote:The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events.
Like when Bentley the dog was exposed to Ebola? I stayed the course and bought stock to keep my AA in line. Those shares have been very good to me. Today I bought some REITs, gott'a keep the AA in balance. My portfolio flows like water, following the Way.


I fail to understand your response. Perhaps that was a joke? :confused

TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:53 pm

barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?



Trump Jr. released e-mails.

sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:53 pm

barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?


Somebody bought at 11:29 ET? :wink:

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:56 pm

sreynard wrote:
barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?


Somebody bought at 11:29 ET? :wink:

Is the gal who sold at that time going to post?

Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:01 pm

barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?


:D

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:04 pm

Remember that political discussion is off-limits and will only derail this thread.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:54 pm

barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
It was a news item that amounted to nothing as stocks bounced right back. This is why Mr. Bogle said one should not look at day to day happenings in one's portfolio.
The "breaking news" was not that big a deal and some say it was high speed computer trading algorithms that caused the drop. Humans then took over and bought the faux dip.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:01 pm

sreynard wrote:The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events. Visualize all the terrible things that could happen to take the emotional pain out of them when and if they do. People typically don't like to think about bad things happening to them, but the old stoics claimed it really did help.


I think there's probably some truth to its being helpful.

For a non-finance example, a lot of runners recommend that you visualize a big race. And you try to think about what it might feel like when you're at mile X and you feel miserable and you want to stop, what are you going to do to get past that and keep going? Being ready for it can help a great deal.

In the world of finance, a lot of people on here weren't invested in this last recession and don't know how they will handle a downturn. Or people like me were invested but often "forget" what it felt like. There's a few good documentaries (PBS Inside the Meltdown is one of the good ones) that I re-watch maybe every 2-3 years just to remind myself what it really felt like. Because although I didn't pull my money out, and didn't change my investments, and even increased my 401k contributions a teeny bit, it did not feel like "yay, I can buy stocks at a discount!" it felt like "omg how bad is this going to get, am I going to have a job next year?" I was in a relatively "safe" industry but no one knew where the bleeding was going to stop or how scary it really was. It's good to be reminded so you don't think the next time will be a cakewalk.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:43 am

Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fantasytensai » Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:20 pm

thangngo wrote:Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?


The answer is that some people in this generation will be scared to invest. Some will not be.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:07 pm

2000 just seemed like we were blowing off the top - overinvestment leading to a correction, no big deal, even if it was very painful. 2008 scared the bejezus out of me because there were legitimate signs that the entire financial system could go down. My favorite Onion article had Bernanke roaming drunkenly from bar to bar while moaning, "were scr**ed, we're all scr**ed". I'm not sure why, but I still think this is hilarious.

I think it's pretty well established that fear of losses > FOMO (fear of missing out). I think if you're lucky, the FOMO is strong with you (couldn't resist). I think it's FOMO that helped me stay invested in 2000, and while I admit to non-boglehead shenanigans in 2008, helped me stick to my plan in 2008, so that I turned out ok.
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munemaker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:21 am

Market is dropping for a change. Let's get this thread fired up!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:04 am

munemaker wrote:Market is dropping for a change. Let's get this thread fired up!
After waking up at 11:30am from my morning nap and checking the market indexes, I started looking for this thread. Someone should have revived it, I was thinking.

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Iliketoridemybike
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Iliketoridemybike » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:05 am

thangngo wrote:Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?
Not so sure about the 1 per generation theory. I personally experienced 1987, 1991, 2000, 2008 and I am pretty sure I am going to experience at least another 2 -3 more.
Living the dream

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:06 am

This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:22 am

Finally some volatility. It took the threat of nuclear war to bring life to this thread.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:25 am

flyingaway wrote:This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.
Image

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:38 am

Looking good for my automatic investment on the 15th and the 1st next month :sharebeer

More :moneybag is ready for a 5% drop.

3rdSun
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 3rdSun » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:42 am

Actually, if you want to know why the markets are down so much today, it is because I put a lot of money in yesterday. :annoyed

cashmoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cashmoney » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:45 am

flyingaway wrote:This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.



It just so happens that my managed account at Fidelity was liquidated Monday and the funds( 460k ) are finally available finally available today in my self directed account so I can start my 3 ETF portfolio( 70/30) at Fidelity .On one shoulder there is that little voice that is saying go all in right now dont even think about market timing and on the other shoulder there is a little voice telling me to wait until tomorrow ,monday or tuesday.... because this is the correction we have been waiting for.What to do?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:54 am

Time in the market is better than timing the market.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

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