U.S. stocks in freefall

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:56 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.

Post of the thread. :sharebeer

Tamalak
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:21 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.


That makes sense. Thanks!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FillorKill » Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:19 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.

This time is different.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:53 pm

triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.

I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.


Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash. :oops:

Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.



This is one reason why I refuse to listen to people based on rank or authority. The nice thing about being an engineer, and hence an "outsider" is that I don't even know who to venerate or kow-tow to in the world of econ and finance, nor do I really care.

Krugman is a smart man who cannot see past the myopia of his own bias. I'll try to extract a nugget or two of value every now and then. But frankly for investing, I have more respect for Cramer pushing buttons making sound effects than Krugman.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo » Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:34 pm

nisiprius wrote:
jpelder wrote:Image
I've wondered, but I don't know how to find out... the more often I see that, the more I wonder whether it's intended to be a stock tip and/or a career recommendation, not for polymers in general a substances, but for GE Plastics in particular. That is, is the line really "There's a great future in plastics?" Or is it "There's a great future in Plastics?"

GE Plastics was for a long time one of the biggest and most important of the plastics producers. GE spat it out circa 2008.

If you never seen it, take a look at this industrial movie, The Kingdom of Plastics. In addition to an impressive castle prefiguring Disneyland, the point of the title is that "plastics" is not animal, vegetable, or mineral, but belongs to the fourth kingdom of its own, the Kingdom of Plastics. During the 1950s, early plastics, notably polystyrene, gave "plastic" the reputation for cheapness, cheesiness, and phoniness.


I thought it was just Weird Patronizing Adult Business Man bestowing the wisdom of the ages which was pretty orthogonal to anything in the life of the protagonist. It also helped set up the distance between him and his wife...
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:28 pm

Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.


That makes sense. Thanks!
There is also a currency play when investing in unhedged foreign stocks. Say one owns 10 shares of EU Amalgamated priced one euro each and the shares stay the same but the dollar rises against the euro; your shares are still worth 10 euros but 10 euros aren't worth the same in dollars as they were yesterday.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Hector » Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:38 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.

But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?

Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.


That makes sense. Thanks!
There is also a currency play when investing in unhedged foreign stocks. Say one owns 10 shares of EU Amalgamated priced one euro each and the shares stay the same but the dollar rises against the euro; your shares are still worth 10 euros but 10 euros aren't worth the same in dollars as they were yesterday.


What about ADRs; foreign stocks being traded on US stock market? Are ADRs unhedged?
Edit: just googled it and looks like ADRs are not hedged and they have currency risk.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:49 am

It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people? :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sperry8 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:20 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people? :confused


It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story. :oops:
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:49 am

sperry8 wrote:It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story. :oops:
The top is going to be "huge". :wink:
I was doing a year end tax tap dance, 0% tax if done right, and moved from regular mutual funds to ETFs. I don't like ETF but after 30 days my short term capital gains are "huge" and I'm stuck in the ETF for a year. Maybe less when this free fall starts.
Last edited by Uncle Pennybags on Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by linenfort » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:16 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,

Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?
The problem is not that bitcoin is a sham. The problem is that people are nuts.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:21 pm

linenfort wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,

Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?

No I wasn't having fun and my head is used up for all of 2017. :?
Image

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:00 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
linenfort wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,

Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?

No I wasn't having fun and my head is used up for all of 2017. :?
Image


Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.

(Sorry. I couldn't resist.)

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:40 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:45 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.

:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:01 pm

I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:35 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

if I go by your username you're never optimistic.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selftalk » Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:13 pm

Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:34 pm

selftalk wrote:Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.


Doom&Gloom was clearly joking. Changing asset allocation when you hit a milestone may be part of reasonable plan. Just shouldn't do it on feelings about the market being overpriced, as that is historically not successful. Mind you, the market DOES "feel" overpriced to me, I just am bogleheaded enough to not do anything about that feeling.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:25 pm

Da5id wrote:
selftalk wrote:Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.


Doom&Gloom was clearly joking. Changing asset allocation when you hit a milestone may be part of reasonable plan. Just shouldn't do it on feelings about the market being overpriced, as that is historically not successful. Mind you, the market DOES "feel" overpriced to me, I just am bogleheaded enough to not do anything about that feeling.


Yes, I was joking. I thought the icon would eliminate any possible doubt. No changes here because of some arbitrary "milestone."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiredjg » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:46 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:Yes, I was joking. I thought the icon would eliminate any possible doubt. No changes here because of some arbitrary "milestone."

I thought you were warning us to sell now because a massive crash will certainly happen next week because of reaching your milestone. :happy

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:44 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:56 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


I'd call that an inflation hedge.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:56 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.


Ok, you made me look :shock: . My portfolio has been in transition from 70/30 to 65/35, but still returned 23.8% for the past Calendar year (I have a fairly heavy allocation to Int SC and EM). It feels good to get some strong returns like that, regardless of the benefits of buying in a low market. It just feels like a long time since the market was on a good strong run, and I'm not in a position to be saving more with college tuition for my boys plus debt that I'm determined to pay down, so I'm liking a little help on the returns side.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:08 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


Just don't blame me if your money goes up in smoke! :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:58 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


I see that move going up in smoke.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:54 am

TomCat96 wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


I'd call that an inflation hedge.

You have no Idea. I have the invoices where I paid $17.50 for Siglo VIs in 2008. This is the price for 2016 Siglo VIs.
Image
Cigars increase 10% a year if aged properly. I'm more of a collector than a smoker and storage isn't that difficult. I should have gone all in with cigars right after the crash of 08.

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later 8-)

I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


Just don't blame me if your money goes up in smoke! :beer
:oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:03 am

It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:12 am

Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:16 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:


We're doomed! :shock:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:24 am

Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:


We're doomed! :shock:

I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now? :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:11 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:


We're doomed! :shock:

I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now? :confused
Catch the falling soldering iron?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by David Jay » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:50 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall! :x

It's coming, sell, sell,sell. :twisted:


We're doomed! :shock:

I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now? :confused


Catch the falling humidor !
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers » Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:26 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.


I have the invoices where I paid $17.50 for Siglo VIs in 2008. This is the price for 2016 Siglo VIs.
Image
Cigars increase 10% a year if aged properly. I'm more of a collector than a smoker and storage isn't that difficult. I should have gone all in with cigars right after the crash of 08.


...cash and carry.... :wink:
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:36 am

Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what? :greedy
Where are the "Cash is King" types? :mrgreen:
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by linenfort » Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:39 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(

Why?
The problem is not that bitcoin is a sham. The problem is that people are nuts.

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telemark
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by telemark » Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:45 pm

Bonds are the falling Nerf ball.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:49 pm

linenfort wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(

Why?


Presumably to move towards his target asset allocation?

Anyway, freefall ain't what it used be as was said up thread a bit. But the freefall will come, it always does.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:18 pm

Da5id wrote:Presumably to move towards his target asset allocation?
Give that man a cigar. Premium cigars prices are climbing faster than the DOW BTW; not a coincidence IMHO.
DOW 20,000 seem so last month. :?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:52 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what? :greedy
Where are the "Cash is King" types? :mrgreen:
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(


Uncle Pennybags wrote:DOW 20,000 seem so last month. :?


Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:10 pm

Leif wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what? :greedy
Where are the "Cash is King" types? :mrgreen:
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(


Uncle Pennybags wrote:DOW 20,000 seem so last month. :?


Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.


Or maybe it will just keep going up........... :shock:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by linenfort » Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:44 pm

You're both right. We are getting close to DOW 24,733.
Whoops, did I say that out loud?
The problem is not that bitcoin is a sham. The problem is that people are nuts.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:59 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Leif wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what? :greedy
Where are the "Cash is King" types? :mrgreen:
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds. :(


Uncle Pennybags wrote:DOW 20,000 seem so last month. :?


Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.


Or maybe it will just keep going up........... :shock:

It makes no difference to a Boglehead investor. We catch all the tops and bottoms and like a roller coaster we don't get out until the end of the ride.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:03 pm

sperry8 wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people? :confused


It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story. :oops:

Lol. There are some people who have a knack from for spotting tops. Your friend is certainly one of them.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:08 am

aqan wrote:
sperry8 wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people? :confused


It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story. :oops:

Lol. There are some people who have a knack from for spotting tops. Your friend is certainly one of them.
The Fed raises rates and both bonds and securities take off.

I have no idea what's going on but my short term gains are "HUGE". :dollar :moneybag :greedy
The eventual 10% correction is also going to be huge. Good thing I never look. :wink:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:51 pm

:beer

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:04 pm

I KNEW IT; ALL CASH THIS IS THE CRASH. :twisted:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:21 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I KNEW IT; ALL CASH THIS IS THE CRASH. :twisted:


I decided it would only be the real thing when Uncle PennyBags weighed in on the matter.

I did put in the Roth money that I should have put in on January first, just to guarantee the crash would continue. LOL!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:32 pm

FillorKill wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.

This time is different.


"Things are more like they are now than they ever were before." -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:07 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:I did put in the Roth money that I should have put in on January first, just to guarantee the crash would continue. LOL!


+1

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