U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 676
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:09 pm

livesoft wrote:
long_gamma wrote:Here is the data, From 1928 after 3% drop, performance next day and next week.

Note that big Monday drops occur at double the frequency of big Tues-Fri drops.


Lesson learned - thanks, all.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

primetime5
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by primetime5 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:26 pm

VirtualCuriosity wrote:
primetime5 wrote:I have been putting off contributing to my solo 401k all year. Just did 35k this morning so there's that. Probably won't go through though until things perk back up, but oh well. :oops:


LOL, for real???


Gotta love the solo 401k. Best defined contribution plan in America hands down.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 39149
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:19 pm

The wiki has some background info: Solo 401(k) plan
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

EnjoyIt
Posts: 1219
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by EnjoyIt » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:33 pm

Just out of curiosity I checked today to see if I have something to tax loss harvest or maybe hit a rebalance band.
~$1400 to tax loss harvest. I generally don't bother until it hits $3K
And I am nowhere near my 5/20 bands. I guess I will just stand and do nothing.
Next contribution comes on July 15th. I will re-asses again.

Ohh, I also slept very well the last few nights. I'm pretty sure I will sleep equally well tonight.

User avatar
dougger5
Posts: 196
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:58 am
Location: Not far from Malvern

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dougger5 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:18 pm

Was watching CNBC today*. Segment was up that had been billed as "what to do with your 401(k)."

The guest concluded that it's best for the typical holder of a 401(k) that's 5-10 years out to do nothing. The pained CNBC guy:"Really? We can't end a segment with a statement like that!"

Guest just shrugged.



*D5 watches CNBC more for discussion of past and present than future. Also, D5 is evaluating the use of 3rd person for footnotes. Jury still out.
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:44 pm

The fear index, VIX, is down 15% today.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:44 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:The fear index, VIX, is down 15% today.


Down another 9% after 1 hour today. I think this bloodbath/panic/end-of-the-world has officially entered the "yawn" zone. 8-)

User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 6271
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:04 am

NMJack wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The fear index, VIX, is down 15% today.


Down another 9% after 1 hour today. I think this bloodbath/panic/end-of-the-world has officially entered the "yawn" zone. 8-)


However, it's been very handy for focusing a conversation with my son, who is making his first "real" money at a summer internship. I have discussed staying the course before, but since he's got some of his own skin in the game now, he is paying more attention. So, for him, it's anything but a yawn.

Teachable moment.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:30 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
NMJack wrote:

Down another 9% after 1 hour today. I think this bloodbath/panic/end-of-the-world has officially entered the "yawn" zone. 8-)


However, it's been very handy for focusing a conversation with my son, who is making his first "real" money at a summer internship. I have discussed staying the course before, but since he's got some of his own skin in the game now, he is paying more attention. So, for him, it's anything but a yawn.

Teachable moment.


Absolutely. Also why I highly recommend that people learn to face the realities of the market and not follow the "just don't peek" crowd.

yukon50
Posts: 320
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 8:23 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by yukon50 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:22 pm

yukon50 wrote:
broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.


You should read posts by LBill from 2011. He sang a similar tune as you. He was also really confident.

Will you still be around if the Dow hits 20k in one year?

(SP closed at 1867 and the Dow closed at 15666 today)



S&P just hit a new all-time high at 2137, up about 14%, not including dividends, since my last comment.

Did you ever get back into the market? What's the latest news on the China signs? What are those financial guys saying now?

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 3112
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:35 pm

yukon50 wrote:
yukon50 wrote:
broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.


You should read posts by LBill from 2011. He sang a similar tune as you. He was also really confident.

Will you still be around if the Dow hits 20k in one year?

(SP closed at 1867 and the Dow closed at 15666 today)



S&P just hit a new all-time high at 2137, up about 14%, not including dividends, since my last comment.

Did you ever get back into the market? What's the latest news on the China signs? What are those financial guys saying now?


A smart person would have gotten back in on February 11. I expect that is what broadstone did.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

staythecourse
Posts: 4687
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:40 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:01 pm

yukon50 wrote:Did you ever get back into the market? What's the latest news on the China signs? What are those financial guys saying now?


Funny how folks will believe anything a financial guy says. Was at a party recently and someone said one of their friends who was in finance thought the stock market was getting too frothy so they took all their money out and invested it in art and real estate. I thought that was dumb until I heard the folks telling me the story were considering doing the same. Alexander Pope's great quote came to mind, "Who is the greater fool the fool or the fool who follows the fool".

I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future. The same folks who don't believe in going to a psychic have no problems putting their hard earned money into predictions by random folks.

I have learned A LOT from this site and reading books but it was obvious to me without ever reading a book that no one can predict market movements. I was and am always suprised that folks just assume the opposite.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

prettybogle
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:44 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by prettybogle » Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:18 pm

After significant losses in short term trading, I finally got it last year - frequent trading makes very few lucky folks rich; most people just loose money. Long term investing is the only consistent and tension-free way to get good returns.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:37 am

staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


I see the future very clearly. 8-) The market will go up and down and up and down. One day it will go down a bit harder and this thread will come back to life, with a very predictable mix of panic ("Sell!!!"), self-congratulating ("Thankfully I'm 89.3% in bonds!") and the unbelievable ("My research and high intellect led me to sell all stocks the day/hour before the crash.") Any bets? :sharebeer

MIpreRetirey
Posts: 617
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MIpreRetirey » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:58 am

prettybogle wrote:After significant losses in short term trading, I finally got it last year - frequent trading makes very few lucky folks rich; most people just loose money. Long term investing is the only consistent and tension-free way to get good returns.

Know any of those traders with the loose money that might throw it my way? :D

livesoft
Posts: 55514
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:00 am

NMJack wrote:
staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


I see the future very clearly. 8-) The market will go up and down and up and down. One day it will go down a bit harder and this thread will come back to life, with a very predictable mix of panic ("Sell!!!"), self-congratulating ("Thankfully I'm 89.3% in bonds!") and the unbelievable ("My research and high intellect led me to sell all stocks the day/hour before the crash.") Any bets? :sharebeer

So, you are not predicting that some posters will write, "Buy now! Don't wait!"?
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

mancich
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mancich » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:20 am

NMJack wrote:
staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


I see the future very clearly. 8-) The market will go up and down and up and down. One day it will go down a bit harder and this thread will come back to life, with a very predictable mix of panic ("Sell!!!"), self-congratulating ("Thankfully I'm 89.3% in bonds!") and the unbelievable ("My research and high intellect led me to sell all stocks the day/hour before the crash.") Any bets? :sharebeer


+1. NMJack you are truly prescient. :beer

JW-Retired
Posts: 6221
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:02 am

yukon50 wrote:
yukon50 wrote:
broadstone wrote:I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.


You should read posts by LBill from 2011. He sang a similar tune as you. He was also really confident.

Will you still be around if the Dow hits 20k in one year?

(SP closed at 1867 and the Dow closed at 15666 today)


S&P just hit a new all-time high at 2137, up about 14%, not including dividends, since my last comment.

Did you ever get back into the market? What's the latest news on the China signs? What are those financial guys saying now?

We would like to hear from him too but prospects look fairly dim. A forum search says broadstone has not posted anything since April.
JW
Retired at Last

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 3373
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:33 am

JW-Retired wrote:. . . We would like to hear from him too but prospects look fairly dim. A forum search says broadstone has not posted anything since April . . .

Some of us take breaks from internet forums from time to time, in this case our shipmate Broad Stone could be taking a well-deserved break or he is too busy trading in the global markets. Thanks for reading.
~ Ponga su anuncio aquí ~

protagonist
Posts: 4735
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 12:47 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist » Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:00 am

mancich wrote:
NMJack wrote:
staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"Irving Fisher stated on October 21 (1929) that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. "

"Joseph Schumpeter described (Irving Fisher) as "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced",[2] an assessment later repeated by James Tobin[3] and Milton Friedman.[4]"
-Wikipedia.

NMJack
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:52 pm

livesoft wrote:
NMJack wrote:
staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


I see the future very clearly. 8-) The market will go up and down and up and down. One day it will go down a bit harder and this thread will come back to life, with a very predictable mix of panic ("Sell!!!"), self-congratulating ("Thankfully I'm 89.3% in bonds!") and the unbelievable ("My research and high intellect led me to sell all stocks the day/hour before the crash.") Any bets? :sharebeer

So, you are not predicting that some posters will write, "Buy now! Don't wait!"?


Could be, but those folks are usually drowned out by all the NOISE.

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:11 pm

NMJack wrote:
livesoft wrote:
NMJack wrote:
staythecourse wrote: I wonder if there will be a time folks actually get that NO ONE can predict the future.


I see the future very clearly. 8-) The market will go up and down and up and down. One day it will go down a bit harder and this thread will come back to life, with a very predictable mix of panic ("Sell!!!"), self-congratulating ("Thankfully I'm 89.3% in bonds!") and the unbelievable ("My research and high intellect led me to sell all stocks the day/hour before the crash.") Any bets? :sharebeer

So, you are not predicting that some posters will write, "Buy now! Don't wait!"?


Could be, but those folks are usually drowned out by all the NOISE.

Those folks are the noise. Buy and hold index fund forums would be very quiet without the comic relief those folks provide.

Jozxyqk
Posts: 219
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 9:16 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jozxyqk » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:10 pm

staythecourse wrote:Alexander Pope's great quote came to mind, "Who is the greater fool the fool or the fool who follows the fool".
.


I think that was Obi Wan Kenobi :wink:

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2016
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:19 pm

Does anyone else find it boring when U.S. stocks are not in freefall? I mean, extended freefall not good, but the short-term freefall, I dunno. I kinda like it. Sorry if that's wrong.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

Engineer250
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:48 pm

saltycaper wrote:Does anyone else find it boring when U.S. stocks are not in freefall? I mean, extended freefall not good, but the short-term freefall, I dunno. I kinda like it. Sorry if that's wrong.


I just re-watched Frontline's Inside the Meltdown and then watched The Big Short (it's streaming on Netflix right now). I felt more unsettled and nervous afterwards than I remember feeling during the crisis itself.

The good news is, I was thinking about putting a small % of my portfolio in VGENX (Vanguard Energy Fund) along with my REIT %. I kept trying to decide how much was me trying to time the market (sure that gas will go up soon, and that exploration will pick up once again as well) or how much was having a reasonable hedge against spending a certain amount on gas a year for commuting anyways. Watching those two programs made me decide I was definitely GAMBLING by focusing on a particular sector, and I decided not to invest. Now I'm trying to figure out if my 0.5% REIT is a reasonable counter to stock market movements, or I should just get out and stick to broad based domestic and international indices instead. For anyone trying to time the market or thinking they can predict the future, both programs seem helpful curbs against too much of that behavior.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1263
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:18 pm

saltycaper wrote:Does anyone else find it boring when U.S. stocks are not in freefall? I mean, extended freefall not good, but the short-term freefall, I dunno. I kinda like it. Sorry if that's wrong.


Maybe for some of us who like to pay attention, volatility adds a bit of excitement to otherwise boring index investing. :happy

It probably has something to do with individual risk tolerance.

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2016
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:28 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
I just re-watched Frontline's Inside the Meltdown and then watched The Big Short (it's streaming on Netflix right now). I felt more unsettled and nervous afterwards than I remember feeling during the crisis itself.

The good news is, I was thinking about putting a small % of my portfolio in VGENX (Vanguard Energy Fund) along with my REIT %. I kept trying to decide how much was me trying to time the market (sure that gas will go up soon, and that exploration will pick up once again as well) or how much was having a reasonable hedge against spending a certain amount on gas a year for commuting anyways. Watching those two programs made me decide I was definitely GAMBLING by focusing on a particular sector, and I decided not to invest. Now I'm trying to figure out if my 0.5% REIT is a reasonable counter to stock market movements, or I should just get out and stick to broad based domestic and international indices instead. For anyone trying to time the market or thinking they can predict the future, both programs seem helpful curbs against too much of that behavior.


Excellent example of how exposure to certain financial media and information can make people better investors. Not everything off-board is noise. As for the 0.5% REIT exposure, if you really mean 0.5% of your portfolio, no, I don't think that will counter, well, much of anything. :happy
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2016
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:31 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Maybe for some of us who like to pay attention, volatility adds a bit of excitement to otherwise boring index investing. :happy


Perhaps Brexit was a gift from UK voters to us indexers who were no longer stimulated by reports of lower expense ratios. That was really too kind of them!
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

Engineer250
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:27 pm

saltycaper wrote:
Engineer250 wrote:
I just re-watched Frontline's Inside the Meltdown and then watched The Big Short (it's streaming on Netflix right now). I felt more unsettled and nervous afterwards than I remember feeling during the crisis itself.

The good news is, I was thinking about putting a small % of my portfolio in VGENX (Vanguard Energy Fund) along with my REIT %. I kept trying to decide how much was me trying to time the market (sure that gas will go up soon, and that exploration will pick up once again as well) or how much was having a reasonable hedge against spending a certain amount on gas a year for commuting anyways. Watching those two programs made me decide I was definitely GAMBLING by focusing on a particular sector, and I decided not to invest. Now I'm trying to figure out if my 0.5% REIT is a reasonable counter to stock market movements, or I should just get out and stick to broad based domestic and international indices instead. For anyone trying to time the market or thinking they can predict the future, both programs seem helpful curbs against too much of that behavior.


Excellent example of how exposure to certain financial media and information can make people better investors. Not everything off-board is noise. As for the 0.5% REIT exposure, if you really mean 0.5% of your portfolio, no, I don't think that will counter, well, much of anything. :happy


My original intention was to pull it up to 5% or 10%, which I felt more in favor of prior to watching those shows. I suppose that's my conundrum. Even 5% won't have much of an effect on my portfolio if I want it to be any kind of hedge. Then again, having MORE than 5% of my portfolio in a single sector feels like risky gambling to me. So I'm just letting it sit there at 0.5% while I debate what to do with it. Obviously I can sell it and redistribute amongst the rest of my more boring US stock/international stock options. I don't know. I'm a lot more cautious and wanting to be a lot closer to real market weights than I was just a few days ago :confused
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2016
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:48 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
My original intention was to pull it up to 5% or 10%, which I felt more in favor of prior to watching those shows. I suppose that's my conundrum. Even 5% won't have much of an effect on my portfolio if I want it to be any kind of hedge. Then again, having MORE than 5% of my portfolio in a single sector feels like risky gambling to me. So I'm just letting it sit there at 0.5% while I debate what to do with it. Obviously I can sell it and redistribute amongst the rest of my more boring US stock/international stock options. I don't know. I'm a lot more cautious and wanting to be a lot closer to real market weights than I was just a few days ago :confused


Read through REIT threads here if you haven't already. There's lots of 'em. I haven't read it, but some people seem to have come upon their REIT religion from David Swenson, "Unconventional Success" I think it was. There's a REIT chapter in Larry Swedroe's Only Guide to Alternative Investments. I don't know what else.

But, point is, if you read some of the stronger supporters of REITs, and you balance that with what you think about the lack of certainty between past and future performance, and just what you can imagine sticking with over the next decade or four decades or whatever your time horizon is, you should be able to settle into something relatively comfortable, and that's the key. It's not so much an optimization of risk/return calculation you are making, but an optimization of fitting your portfolio to you. (Maybe market weight is for you.) I also think it's okay to add or jettison a holding here or there over the course of those decades, as long as one doesn't tinker too much.

I do not sector tilt myself. I'm a small-cap value tilter (and mid-cap by way of my small-cap fund). There's good arguments for tilting to REITs, perhaps more so than others, but I could probably come up with lesser reasons to tilt to remaining sectors too (reasons not to as well.) I decided to call the whole sector thing off for now. I do try to avoid holding small amounts of things, however, as they stare back at me saying, "Make up your mind."
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8004
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:44 pm

Oh goody. The market has rallied strong from Brexit and this thread keeps popping up. SInce I regard Boglehead threads as sort of a contrary indicator, the contrarian in me says this is a sign that the bull has longer to run. Normally we don't see this thread pop up in the midst of a rally. It usually pops up after the market has been down a few days. Let's see what will happen. Should be fun!
A fool and his money are good for business.

lack_ey
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lack_ey » Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:51 pm

nedsaid wrote:Oh goody. The market has rallied strong from Brexit and this thread keeps popping up. SInce I regard Boglehead threads as sort of a contrary indicator, the contrarian in me says this is a sign that the bull has longer to run. Normally we don't see this thread pop up in the midst of a rally. It usually pops up after the market has been down a few days. Let's see what will happen. Should be fun!

brb coming up with market timing algorithm based on thread activity :wink:

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 11742
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:05 pm

Once again,
It goes to show,
Noise ,Noise,Noise,
Just keep investing as much as you can,
as often as you can ,
to give you an excellent chance
of having "some gold" in your
Golden Years
8-)
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 11386
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:53 pm

Jack Bogle has said it best: "Stay the course"

No peek or look at your investment portfolio!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:36 am

Engineer250 wrote:
saltycaper wrote:Now I'm trying to figure out if my 0.5% REIT is a reasonable counter to stock market movements, or I should just get out and stick to broad based domestic and international indices instead.

I have 10% REITs and 10% foreign stock as my wild and crazy investing. The REITs more than took the sting out of foreign. The hard part is maintaining the asset allocation. Buying more falling foreign and not buying more rising REITs is not easy but I must stay the course.

Engineer250
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:09 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Engineer250 wrote:
saltycaper wrote:Now I'm trying to figure out if my 0.5% REIT is a reasonable counter to stock market movements, or I should just get out and stick to broad based domestic and international indices instead.

I have 10% REITs and 10% foreign stock as my wild and crazy investing. The REITs more than took the sting out of foreign. The hard part is maintaining the asset allocation. Buying more falling foreign and not buying more rising REITs is not easy but I must stay the course.


I don't see foreign stocks as wild and crazy investing :) But I have the opposite problem. I decided pre-Brexit to increase my international allocation from 20 to 30% to get a little closer to world market weights. For now, I'm doing this via contributions, so just increased the portion going to international in my contributions. Since all that's been down, I can mentally handle buying more of it. Since REITs have gone screaming up the last year, I have a hard time putting more into that. Feels too much like "buying high".
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:15 am

Engineer250 wrote:I don't see foreign stocks as wild and crazy investing :)
Mr. Bogle and I disagree but that's another thread.

oragne lovre
Posts: 465
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oragne lovre » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:02 pm

saltycaper wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:
Maybe for some of us who like to pay attention, volatility adds a bit of excitement to otherwise boring index investing. :happy


Perhaps Brexit was a gift from UK voters to us indexers who were no longer stimulated by reports of lower expense ratios. That was really too kind of them!


I'm still excited or "stimulated" by reports of lower expense ratios since indexing investment is boring :happy
I'm even more excited whenever events such as Brexit occur around the time when mutual funds pay either dividends or capital gains :D
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:59 pm

OMG, SELL, SELL, SELL======we are doomed. :wink:

boglehat
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by boglehat » Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:16 am

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Climb to Records

Renewed confidence in U.S. economy and continued help from central banks around the world have sent investors back into riskier assetsz

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-comp ... 1470410257

Stay the course, my friends.

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 3373
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:32 am

Are investors FINALLY getting it?

Seriously, I was NOT aware that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have reached record territory. Are investors finally getting this thing right? See where big money is going here. What are YOU doing with your money?

Thanks for reading.
~ Ponga su anuncio aquí ~

User avatar
mickeyd
Posts: 4378
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:19 pm
Location: Deep in the Heart of South Texas

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:15 pm

What are YOU doing with your money?



Since I have already "won the game" (as Dr. Bernstein puts it), I am staying the course (as Mr. Bogle puts it).
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

boglerdude
Posts: 404
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:28 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by boglerdude » Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:08 pm

"Renewed confidence in U.S. economy and continued help from central banks around the world have sent investors back into riskier assets"

So the banks can stop helping now :)

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 3373
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:43 am

. . . I am staying the course (as Mr. Bogle puts it) . . . .

Steady as she goes, proceeding on current course and speed . . . staying the course is good [and the right thing to do after reaching the land of critical mass].

Thanks for reading.
~ Ponga su anuncio aquí ~

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 4252
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:35 am

mickeyd wrote:
What are YOU doing with your money?



Since I have already "won the game" (as Dr. Bernstein puts it), I am staying the course (as Mr. Bogle puts it).


Did you make any course corrections once you felt you have won the game? Sure it is full speed ahead when one is in the open ocean but things change as you near port. I know once I came to the conclusion I had won the game (a few months ago) I made some real course corrections, many around ensuring the first decade of my retirement (the most valuable to me) would be protected from market fluctuations. Some have called it bucketing, others liability matching and a few mental accounting for me it was just clarity of focus on what is important to me. If I understand Bernstein correctly, once you have won the game you stop playing, while I have not gone that far I have changed my focus from portfolio growth to risk management. At least in my case this has been a very positive step in reducing the stress around my portfolio and financial future.

After all, aren't glidepaths just preset course corrections?
Run, You Clever Boy!

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1525
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:13 pm

cfs wrote:What are YOU doing with your money?
What I always do. Invest ten unites a month to maintain my asset allocation. Buying into a falling asset when human nature is telling me to buy into the rising one isn't easy but it works. :D

staythecourse
Posts: 4687
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:40 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by staythecourse » Sun Aug 14, 2016 10:11 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
cfs wrote:What are YOU doing with your money?
What I always do. Invest ten unites a month to maintain my asset allocation. Buying into a falling asset when human nature is telling me to buy into the rising one isn't easy but it works. :D


The reason it is difficult is too many folks and industry make you think you are accumulating dollars when you are in accumulation mode. You are not doing that. What you are doing is accumulating SHARES of whatever which is a claim on a dividend or interest coupon with the option of selling it in the future for capital appreciation. So the goal is to accumulate as many SHARES as possible thus increasing your claims to future passive $$$. For example, if you have $20 to invest each month do you want x to cost $5 or $6? If it is $5 you can buy more shares with the same $20 then you would if it cost $6. That is how I view investing.

The big problem, in my opinion, is how investing platforms are set up. Who cares what the value of your portfolio is if you are a long term investor. What they should have in the first column in highlighted and large font is how many shares you have and stress that with every purchase. It is there, of course, buy not stressed. What is stressed is $$ and how much you have made or lost on your investments. That is useful if you are a day trader, but NOT for a long term investor. Wish Vanguard had an option just to eliminate the value of your portfolio and just show number of shares and asset allocation.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 4252
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Aug 14, 2016 11:28 am

staythecourse wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
cfs wrote:What are YOU doing with your money?
What I always do. Invest ten unites a month to maintain my asset allocation. Buying into a falling asset when human nature is telling me to buy into the rising one isn't easy but it works. :D


The reason it is difficult is too many folks and industry make you think you are accumulating dollars when you are in accumulation mode. You are not doing that. What you are doing is accumulating SHARES of whatever which is a claim on a dividend or interest coupon with the option of selling it in the future for capital appreciation. So the goal is to accumulate as many SHARES as possible thus increasing your claims to future passive $$$. For example, if you have $20 to invest each month do you want x to cost $5 or $6? If it is $5 you can buy more shares with the same $20 then you would if it cost $6. That is how I view investing.

The big problem, in my opinion, is how investing platforms are set up. Who cares what the value of your portfolio is if you are a long term investor. What they should have in the first column in highlighted and large font is how many shares you have and stress that with every purchase. It is there, of course, buy not stressed. What is stressed is $$ and how much you have made or lost on your investments. That is useful if you are a day trader, but NOT for a long term investor. Wish Vanguard had an option just to eliminate the value of your portfolio and just show number of shares and asset allocation.

Good luck.


I think you are basically correct for people using 2 or 3 fund portfolios, but I believe slicing and dicing changes the dynamic. Now if your investment horizon is 20 years maybe it is all a wash but there is also a basic reality that something isn't finished dropping until it stops going down. Just because something is down today doesn't mean it won't be cheaper next week or next month or even next year. You can usually buy something for the same price when it is going back up as you could on its way down. Also I believe the closer one is to financial independence the more they should concentrate on managing risk using absolute dollar amounts, instead of percentages because in the end your spend dollars nor percentages.
Run, You Clever Boy!

User avatar
mickeyd
Posts: 4378
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:19 pm
Location: Deep in the Heart of South Texas

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Sun Aug 14, 2016 12:53 pm

Did you make any course corrections once you felt you have won the game?



I did what seemed correct to do under the circumstances. I looked up the definition of "simplicity" and used that for a guide. I am headed from 60/40 to 40/60 and using the basic 3 fund approach for my major stash. Since my only drain on my stash is RMD, it's been easy to do so far.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

User avatar
backpacker
Posts: 1620
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by backpacker » Tue Aug 16, 2016 6:15 pm

Because I like winning things, I wanted to point out that I bet browser a Starbuck's Tall way back last September that the S&P 500 would reach a new high before it fell by 40%.

Browser wrote:
backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


Ah, an actual prediction! Shall we say six months? I'll add a reminder to my schedule and we can check to see if you were right. :happy

I'm happy to put a Starbuck's Tall on the line. Shall we meet there in 6 months. 8-)


Well, to be fair to Browser, it's a little unclear what the final bet was.

viewtopic.php?p=2609324#p2609324
viewtopic.php?p=2609408#p2609408

In any case, we've hit a new high since then. Good news for everyone.* :beer

*Well, expect for that guy from the 100% short thread.

Post Reply