U.S. stocks in freefall

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Sun May 01, 2016 1:02 am

JonnyDVM wrote:This guy knows what he's talking about. And he appreciates a good Simpsons reference. My kind of guy. :sharebeer


Shut up, I know it!

:)

(See, I can do Bender quotes too!)

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mickeyd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Sun May 01, 2016 3:50 pm

I have only been at this for 3 years since I got my first real job so I have yet to see a real noisy/bad period that has caused me to question my AA, but I know it will come at some point. Going to remember this tip.


But you are probably decades ahead of your peers when it comes to investing.

Good luck. stay the course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fanmail » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:50 pm

Brexit is bringing this thread back, unfortunately. Futures down 3% right now. Pound getting destroyed. Bonds getting bought like crazy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Petrocelli » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:08 pm

Rolex futures holding firm.
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:26 pm

Petrocelli wrote:Rolex futures holding firm.


They're steadily advancing (not quite) every second.

On-topic: Does anyone have expectations for how long markets will be depressed? That is, what timescale is this expected to play out over -- days / weeks /months? Good times to buy :)
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NMJack
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:42 pm

SELL EVERYTHING!!!!! THE END IS NEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I'll still be buying.....) :sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JeffroZ » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:45 pm

Was looking at being up 2 % today, and dreading new deposits tomorrow. But guess I'm getting a discount now.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:53 pm

Let's see how international bonds hold up in this latest flight to safety. I have been curious.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:53 pm

Petrocelli wrote:Rolex futures holding firm.


Priceless! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fanmail » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:57 pm

S&P futures now down 100 points.

miles monroe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by miles monroe » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:59 pm

cnbc says dow futures down 600 points. can that be right? i can understand int'l markets, but this big of a decline here?
Last edited by miles monroe on Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:02 pm

Should be an interesting day tomorrow...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by surfstar » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:15 pm

WHAT???

I CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THIS NOISE!!!

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:34 pm

Well, I guess I'll buy some VXUS with my dividends laying around tomorrow at the open.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:43 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Well, I guess I'll buy some VXUS with my dividends laying around tomorrow at the open.

Be careful at the open tomorrow.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by miles monroe » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:44 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Well, I guess I'll buy some VXUS with my dividends laying around tomorrow at the open.


i had the opposite thot.

i was thinking that the US market has overreacted and tomorrow would be a good day to put some spare cash to work. i don't have a clue about what is going to happen in europe.

i certainly wouldn't sell anything.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyersrule » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:46 pm

Asked this in another thread

I planned on buying $150k worth of Fidelity funds last week to meet my overhauled asset allocations. I was going to break it up into 3 different investment chunks and buy FSTVX (Fidelity Total Us Fund). I purchased $50k last week and now have $100k more on the sideline.

With BREXIT and the possibility that British leaves the EU, now could be a great time to pump the rest in.

Should the market drop, how many days would you wait for it to bottom out or % loss before pumping in the next $50k or full $100 chunk?

Would you buy FSTVX or potentially some portion in international total stock funds? Don't have any international in my equities

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Whakamole » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:47 pm

Assuming the market overreacts as it appears it will, when would I need to submit an order to Vanguard to do some TLH between VTIAX (Total International) and VFWAX (FTSE All-World)?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jjface » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:48 pm

miles monroe wrote:
zaboomafoozarg wrote:Well, I guess I'll buy some VXUS with my dividends laying around tomorrow at the open.


i had the opposite thot.

i was thinking that the US market has overreacted and tomorrow would be a good day to put some spare cash to work. i don't have a clue about what is going to happen in europe.

i certainly wouldn't sell anything.


That is what I was thinking. I would be very concerned about buying European stocks right now. I'd consider buying UK stocks as I think they are better off out of the EU as do the majority of British people. The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:51 pm

Whakamole wrote:Assuming the market overreacts as it appears it will, when would I need to submit an order to Vanguard to do some TLH between VTIAX (Total International) and VFWAX (FTSE All-World)?


To obtain tomorrow's closing prices, any time before 4pm EDT. You could even do so right now.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:01 am

jjface wrote: The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


How does anybody know what constitutes an "over-reaction"?

Is a 600 point drop in the DJIA (as somebody mentioned above re: Dow futures) an "over-reaction"? That is only about 3%. The Dow fell over 50% in 2008-9.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tj » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:26 am

That is what I was thinking. I would be very concerned about buying European stocks right now. I'd consider buying UK stocks as I think they are better off out of the EU as do the majority of British people. The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


What's wrong with Swiss and German stocks? I'm sticking with VEA.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by island » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:39 am

:oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by island » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:43 am

NMJack wrote: THE END IS NEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I wish the same could be said about this lame 59 page thread.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NMJack » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:46 am

island wrote:
NMJack wrote: THE END IS NEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I wish the same could be said about this lame 59 page thread.


:sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Alkan » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:00 am

Wow, 2am eastern time right now, and FTSE is down 8% & S&P futures are down 4.76%...
Talk about a lot of noise.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jjface » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:15 am

protagonist wrote:
jjface wrote: The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


How does anybody know what constitutes an "over-reaction"?

Is a 600 point drop in the DJIA (as somebody mentioned above re: Dow futures) an "over-reaction"? That is only about 3%. The Dow fell over 50% in 2008-9.


It has been a crazy night for currency and the markets - I call that an over reaction. Britain won't actually leave the EU until the exit plan has been settled which can take 2 years. Plus its the foreign markets that have seen the largest drops.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:43 am

David Cameron has just resigned as PM!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:42 am

Buckle up everyone. The US isn't the only country where crazy politics can affect the market. Yikes.

Look at the positives. Cheap vacations to UK for the foreseeable future. Looking forward to throwing my powerful American monies around London.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:54 am

It's my birthday, so I think I'll buy myself some stocks and maybe a little trip to old Blighty... :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by long_gamma » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:04 am

protagonist wrote:
jjface wrote: The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


How does anybody know what constitutes an "over-reaction"?

Is a 600 point drop in the DJIA (as somebody mentioned above re: Dow futures) an "over-reaction"? That is only about 3%. The Dow fell over 50% in 2008-9.


It is easy. SP500 is priced to move around 35 points based on weekly option prices expiring today. Two times more than expected move constitute over reaction (atleast on the open, we will see if it holds till EOD). 50% over two years cannot be compared to one day move.

Markets clearly positioned for "Remain" vote. When the results was different, there will be an overreaction
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:26 am

VTIAX was up about 6% from June 14 through yesterday, so if it goes down 6% to 10% today it will look spectacular, but you've been there already this month.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:31 am

livesoft wrote:VTIAX was up about 6% from June 14 through yesterday, so if it goes down 6% to 10% today it will look spectacular, but you've been there already this month.


Far too reasonable a point of view. We're all doomed, flee for your lives! Gold and canned goods! Frogs will rain from the heavens!

On second thought, stay the course does sound good. But yes, recent gains means today's likely bloodbath won't even make me re-balance...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:37 am

jjface wrote:
protagonist wrote:
jjface wrote: The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


How does anybody know what constitutes an "over-reaction"?

Is a 600 point drop in the DJIA (as somebody mentioned above re: Dow futures) an "over-reaction"? That is only about 3%. The Dow fell over 50% in 2008-9.


It has been a crazy night for currency and the markets - I call that an over reaction. Britain won't actually leave the EU until the exit plan has been settled which can take 2 years. Plus its the foreign markets that have seen the largest drops.


It's been a crazy night because something crazy happened, that could potentially trigger a series of crazy events all over Europe over the coming few years, and maybe even here in the US with the upcoming presidential election . The markets reacted to the potential realities. Right or wrong, Europeans have reason to panic. I'm not one to guess whether the reaction was extreme or not....we will only know that in hindsight. Given the potential political and financial impact of the move, I would be loath to predict that buying stocks today is going to end well for you, any more than it ended well for me when I poured money into the NASDAQ when it fell from 5000 to 3500 in the year 2000. That was a rapid 30% drop. 16 years later, accounting for inflation, I am still not sure whether the NASDAQ is back to where it was when I bought. Maybe the markets will soon stabilize. Maybe they won't. I have no clue. I hope you are right.

I'm not buying or selling. I'm strapping myself in, planning for a bumpy ride, riding it out and hoping for the best (like I always do). Good luck.
Last edited by protagonist on Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 1210sda » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:44 am

Automatic re-balancing !! :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grogs » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:06 am

Today is payday, which means my 401k contributions will go in at market close. That will be 21% international plus 45% domestic stocks. That Normally means that the markets will defy expectations and close higher today, followed by a precipitous drop on Monday.

I also have a bit of cash for my taxable account that is supposed to be invested in VTSAX between now and the 1st. I'll probably hold off until Tuesday Wednesday until I put it in.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:30 am

Staying the course and sticking with my IPS. If I hit my 5% band I'll re-balance.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Buddtholomew » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:35 am

Why bother maintaining an IPS or rebalancing bands if market volatility prompts one to rebalance?
I personally have spent countless hours determining an appropriate AA and don't plan any action at this time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:36 am

protagonist wrote:
jjface wrote: The markets have seriously overreacted across the board. Us stocks might be the best place to buy.


How does anybody know what constitutes an "over-reaction"?

Is a 600 point drop in the DJIA (as somebody mentioned above re: Dow futures) an "over-reaction"? That is only about 3%. The Dow fell over 50% in 2008-9.

They don't, this is just the sort of moment where many people here reveal themselves to be no different than every other speculating trader out there.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:39 am

long_gamma wrote:Markets clearly positioned for "Remain" vote. When the results was different, there will be an overreaction

See, this is the illogical part - yes, markets position for a remain vote and were wrong. What is going on now isn't an overreaction - it is just a reaction. You could try to argue that they overreacted in their certainty of a 'remain' vote but I think that is being unfair to what they knew at the time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by long_gamma » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:54 am

avalpert wrote:
long_gamma wrote:Markets clearly positioned for "Remain" vote. When the results was different, there will be an overreaction

See, this is the illogical part - yes, markets position for a remain vote and were wrong. What is going on now isn't an overreaction - it is just a reaction. You could try to argue that they overreacted in their certainty of a 'remain' vote but I think that is being unfair to what they knew at the time.


Well it is semantics. Both "reaction" and "over-reaction" is not quantifiable. I prefer "expected" and "more (less) than expected". It is quantifiable based on option market prices.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wizzard » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:56 am

Anyone else buying more this morning? :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:57 am

"U.S. stocks in freefall"?? Not as "freefall" as foreign stocks priced in US dollars.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:59 am

wizzard wrote:Anyone else buying more this morning? :D


Yes. But only because my paycheck/401k buy is today.

Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by avalpert » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:01 am

long_gamma wrote:
avalpert wrote:
long_gamma wrote:Markets clearly positioned for "Remain" vote. When the results was different, there will be an overreaction

See, this is the illogical part - yes, markets position for a remain vote and were wrong. What is going on now isn't an overreaction - it is just a reaction. You could try to argue that they overreacted in their certainty of a 'remain' vote but I think that is being unfair to what they knew at the time.


Well it is semantics. Both "reaction" and "over-reaction" is not quantifiable. I prefer "expected" and "more (less) than expected". It is quantifiable based on option market prices.

I agree those are better terms - mostly because they aren't laden with emotional baggage that implies a rational course of action which just isn't there. Unless you have some base of knowledge about the true economic impact of the UK leaving the EU (for which we have absolutely no precedent let alone good body of evidence around) you just don't know if the market is pricing in the news on the low or high side.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wizzard » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:06 am

Da5id wrote:
wizzard wrote:Anyone else buying more this morning? :D


Yes. But only because my paycheck/401k buy is today.

Honestly, the freefall thing is overrated. Barely more than this weeks S&P 500 gains have been lost. Stocks are up for the last month. Regardless, if this is the start of a bigger correction, such things happen. It will become a real "buying opportunity" to me only when my stock holdings fall enough to trigger a re-balance, nowhere near that happening now.


I hear ya! I have some cash saved up that I could certainly put to good use if things really go down :wink:
"In uncertain times, show equanimity. Otherwise you are an unfit shareholder" -Charlie Munger

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Urchina » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:15 am

Keep calm and carry on!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LarryAllen » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:22 am

Buying opportunities today?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:26 am

wizzard wrote:Anyone else buying more this morning? :D


Pension buyout check showed up Saturday and was deposited Monday. Investing it today. :happy

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:27 am

I doubt I will hit my rebalancing band on the first day, but I will peek to see later. It might be one of Livesoft's RBDs, though. :happy
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