U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Phineas J. Whoopee
Posts: 6510
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 6:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:52 pm

Hector wrote:An interesting day today; stock is down and bond is down (corporate, muni and treasury)
How often does bond move in the direction of stock on bad days?

Frequently. Stocks and investment-grade bonds have shown approximately zero correlation, so their day-to-day and longer-term movements relative to one another are all but random. There's wording out there about bonds zigging when stocks zag, but it's nonsense.
PJW

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:48 pm

gks wrote:I always look for this thread during bad times and thought I may have missed a RBD to invest, but saw it was a non-event.


It has been prophesied that the RBDs will not return until livesoft does.

Tamalak
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:51 pm

Someone find livesoft and finish him!

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 347
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:33 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:27 pm

This thread is always fun to resurrect.

Looking at the 3 month returns on VTI/VXUS and the upcoming election, why not!

:sharebeer :moneybag :confused

TomCat96
Posts: 414
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:38 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:This thread is always fun to resurrect.

Looking at the 3 month returns on VTI/VXUS and the upcoming election, why not!

:sharebeer :moneybag :confused



I was waiting for someone to post here.
I think there are some election jitters going on right now. What I'm surprised at is how little its manifested its way into stock prices.

FWIW, i did notice that when the S&P hit exactly 2100, the algorithms started buying in.
At first I thought, could it be options traders? holders of e-minis? After a second data point, I concluded no.

At exactly the same moment, the Dow TSM jumped up too. While the S&P would have many strikes at 2100, the Dow TSM bounced at 1036--a completely irrelevant price point. What do the 505 companies on the S&P have to do with the 3000+ companies on the TSM? Supposedly, not much.

The two moved in tandem. At the sheer breath of the movement over 3500+ companies, I'd say the only parties big enough to have that kind of effect are central banks.

Longtermgrowth
Posts: 344
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Longtermgrowth » Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:46 pm

I'm surprised to see this thread bumped without a large decline. If today's negative trend of the S&P 500 is the tip of the iceberg, it's good news to me. I wouldn't mind some two for the price of one shares :greedy

TomCat96 wrote:What do the 505 companies on the S&P have to do with the 3000+ companies on the TSM? Supposedly, not much.


Isn't around 80% of TSM the S&P 500? Unless small caps have a huge performance difference, the 20 or so percent of them in TSM shouldn't make much difference between the two funds...

TomCat96
Posts: 414
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomCat96 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:23 pm

Longtermgrowth wrote:I'm surprised to see this thread bumped without a large decline. If today's negative trend of the S&P 500 is the tip of the iceberg, it's good news to me. I wouldn't mind some two for the price of one shares :greedy

TomCat96 wrote:What do the 505 companies on the S&P have to do with the 3000+ companies on the TSM? Supposedly, not much.


Isn't around 80% of TSM the S&P 500? Unless small caps have a huge performance difference, the 20 or so percent of them in TSM shouldn't make much difference between the two funds...


I apologize. Total Stock Market here usually refers to both.

The correct term I meant to use was the Dow Jones Total Stock Market US Completion index. Formerly the Wilshire 5000.
also mirrored by Vanguard VXF and the TSP S fund.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 39979
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:56 pm

TomCat96 wrote:The correct term I meant to use was the Dow Jones Total Stock Market US Completion index. Formerly the Wilshire 5000.
also mirrored by Vanguard VXF and the TSP S fund.

The wiki has some background info: Extended market index fund
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

Tanelorn
Posts: 1259
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:16 pm

US futures -5%, VIX +30%, gold +4%. Markets hate surprises and the election is looking more and more like one.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

lostdog
Posts: 548
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:29 pm

I am staying the course as usual.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1303
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:38 pm

That's quite a sharp drop in futures.

SpartanBull
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SpartanBull » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:53 pm

I'm staying the course as well. That being said, how bad is this going to be for stocks? I cant see them pulling back any less than 10% (although that advice is worth what you paid for it).

User avatar
InvestorNewb
Posts: 1566
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorNewb » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:59 pm

SpartanBull wrote:That being said, how bad is this going to be for stocks?

Nobody knows but I'm also staying the course. Bogleheads thrive together, and we go off cliffs together too.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

User avatar
TinkerPDX
Posts: 200
Joined: Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TinkerPDX » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:07 am

SpartanBull wrote:I'm staying the course as well. That being said, how bad is this going to be for stocks? I cant see them pulling back any less than 10% (although that advice is worth what you paid for it).


Far enough to hit some rebalancing bands, I expect. Exciting!

Random Poster
Posts: 1485
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:17 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Random Poster » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:09 am

Tanelorn wrote:US futures -5%, VIX +30%, gold +4%. Markets hate surprises and the election is looking more and more like one.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5


I don't see how the choice of a President changes the underlying fundamentals of the companies in the stock market.

If prices are really (or ultimately) based on earnings, what's really changed with a surprise election result?

Erwin
Posts: 1929
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Erwin » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:11 am

Remember 2008 and you may feel better. Then there was a real economic crisis, now we have an economy that is in relative good shape and a lot of hysteria based extrictly on expectations. Further, and without getting into politics, whoever wins will not be a dictator, just a president in a political system with heavy checks and balances. So, hold on and if you have the guts (i do not), take advantage of those that panic and buy when the market goes down.
Erwin

zuzimb
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:21 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zuzimb » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:13 am

It's unfortunate I invested my lump sum Roth contribution less than a week ago, missed a great opportunity to buy on a sale if stocks drop like a rock... oh well, at least my 401k contribution should be hitting this week.

User avatar
vitaflo
Posts: 788
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vitaflo » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:17 am

CNBC is reporting that NASDAQ and S&P 500 have currently halted futures trading.

homerj15
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by homerj15 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:20 am

+1 for staying the course

This too will pass

Ignore the noise

May God have mercy on us all.

lostdog
Posts: 548
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:24 am

Time for me to develop a habit to NOT look at the market numbers at the end of the day. Recently I have been peeking quite a bit. Time to go back to my old habit and forget about it.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

sawhorse
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sawhorse » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:29 am

vitaflo wrote:CNBC is reporting that NASDAQ and S&P 500 have currently halted futures trading.


Has this ever happened before?

emanuel_v19
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:15 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by emanuel_v19 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:31 am

Ok! Serious questions! I am in the middle of reading the mutal funds common sense book. Unfortunately for me, i dont have enough knowledge to invest yet. What is a good investment i should make at the moment? Im eager to jump on something good and cheap right now.

Erwin
Posts: 1929
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Erwin » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:32 am

homerj15 wrote:+1 for staying the course

This too will pass

Ignore the noise

May God have mercy on us all.


So very right.
I should add that for someone like me, in retirement, the world is moving too fast, and forgive me for saying it, but not necessarily in the right direction. Scary!
Erwin

User avatar
vitaflo
Posts: 788
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vitaflo » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:35 am

sawhorse wrote:
vitaflo wrote:CNBC is reporting that NASDAQ and S&P 500 have currently halted futures trading.


Has this ever happened before?


I'm not sure it's actually true because I'm seeing movement since it was reported. If it happened it was short lived. At this point, who knows.

lostdog
Posts: 548
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:40 am

Don't give in to the fear. Stay the course. Fear is a wealth buster for sure.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

Novine
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Novine » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:46 am

"If prices are really (or ultimately) based on earnings, what's really changed with a surprise election result?"

Market expectations relative to the economic policies of the different candidates. Not to get into politics but from some of the reports I've read, there are two very different projections of the direction of the markets over the short-term based on which candidate won.

Novine
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Novine » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:48 am

"Unfortunately for me, i dont have enough knowledge to invest yet. What is a good investment i should make at the moment? Im eager to jump on something good and cheap right now."

I would say now is a good time not to get eager if you admittedly don't have enough knowledge to invest. Best to sit back and learn from what's happening versus getting burned chasing "deals".

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:02 am

zaboomafoozarg wrote:It has been prophesied that the RBDs will not return until livesoft does.


Well look at that - livesoft has returned and we appear to have an RBD looming before us!

livesoft
Posts: 56002
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:04 am

More importantly, the Cubs won the World Series.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

best2u
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by best2u » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:06 am

emanuel_v19 wrote:Ok! Serious questions! I am in the middle of reading the mutal funds common sense book. Unfortunately for me, i dont have enough knowledge to invest yet. What is a good investment i should make at the moment? Im eager to jump on something good and cheap right now.


If you do not have any of your hard earned money at risk, there is no reason to get in any rush here. I would suggest you read about the three fund portfolio that is recommended on this board. Understand that no one knows where the market is headed. This could be the beginning of a bear market. Historically an average bear market lasts from 16 to 26 months. Losses are significant in a bear market. In the thirties people lost 80 per cent of their money on average. Caution is the best policy until some of this gets sorted out. I suggest you devise a strategy and then tiptoe into it. There is much opportunity ahead of us. No reason to think you are going to make a killing with how the election went. The election has caused uncertainty, and the market hates it.
“There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” Will Rogers

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:07 am

livesoft wrote:More importantly, the Cubs won the World Series.


No that's pretty much the worst thing ever.

livesoft
Posts: 56002
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:20 am

I will definitely be rebalancing today per my IPS.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Erwin
Posts: 1929
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Erwin » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:24 am

livesoft wrote:I will definitely be rebalancing today per my IPS.


Why, are you convinced that the market will not continue to go down? Would it not be prudent to wait?
Erwin

User avatar
ray.james
Posts: 824
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:48 am

I do not understand the futures overreaction! This is not even Brexit. While it is a surprising result, this is not the same as ending trade deals with the major partner. While there may be similar rhetoric, the process is long and enduring to pass through US congress.

Stay the course. If it helps for over allocated do not look at account. I am going to focus on work, Gym and not peek into my account for few days.(and probably away from bogleheads too :D )
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

sawhorse
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sawhorse » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:53 am

ray.james wrote:I do not understand the futures overreaction! This is not even Brexit.


Actually it's much bigger than Brexit.

User avatar
Fudgie
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:01 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Fudgie » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:58 am

I'll be buying today.

Emotions are a powerful market-mover.
"That's entertainment!" - Vlad the Impaler

Erwin
Posts: 1929
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Erwin » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:24 am

sawhorse wrote:
ray.james wrote:I do not understand the futures overreaction! This is not even Brexit.


Actually it's much bigger than Brexit.


Why?
Erwin

boglephreak
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by boglephreak » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:44 am

any good resources on how to tax loss harvest with vanguard funds? i have vtiax only.

Bongleur
Posts: 2037
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:36 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bongleur » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:15 am

What this country needs is a good 5% Govt Bond. I could live on 5% Govt Bonds.
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. | Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. | A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.

Valuethinker
Posts: 32689
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:12 am

Erwin wrote:
sawhorse wrote:
ray.james wrote:I do not understand the futures overreaction! This is not even Brexit.


Actually it's much bigger than Brexit.


Why?


Brexit is a specific thing, a decision mostly impacting one country, that will then take years to play out.

The US president is constitutionally limited in many ways, however the Senate & House are with his party.

However the US is the world's largest economy and leading political and military power, so its decisions are much greater in scope and potential impact.

So the scope of impact, if not the depth, is much larger in this case than with Brexit.

We shall see. Predicting is hard, especially of the future.

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 3328
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:15 am

I have removed numerous political comments. The moderator team is going to be overworked with political comments the next few days -- making political comments only worsens the load.

Reminder, according to the
Forum Policies:

Unacceptable Topics
Politics and Religion

In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
* Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
* Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
* Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed laws or regulations are prohibited.
* Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

livesoft
Posts: 56002
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:35 am

livesoft wrote:I will definitely be rebalancing today per my IPS.

Hmmm, maybe not based on current futures markets.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 3328
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:44 am

livesoft wrote:
livesoft wrote:I will definitely be rebalancing today per my IPS.

Hmmm, maybe not based on current futures markets.


Is it true that futures trading was suspended? I read that a few places on here but cannot corroborate. NASDAQ appears to have hit circuit breakers, according to some reports(?)

There was some good analysis on how the futures market will affect circuit breakers on the tee-vee but they interrupted the knowledgeable commentator for, um, less interesting things. I think I have some more reading to do on that tomorrow.

(Staying the course as always...)
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

User avatar
Bounca
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:48 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bounca » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:07 am

Predicting is hard, especially of the future.


Thank you sir. I will be using that one somewhere, somehow.

J295
Posts: 1105
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:40 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J295 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:32 am

I've seen this movie before and I know how it turns out. I will be updating balances at the end of the quarter per our IPS. Nothing more for us to do allocation wise until then.

jayhawkerbeef
Posts: 226
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:10 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jayhawkerbeef » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:39 am

boglephreak wrote:any good resources on how to tax loss harvest with vanguard funds? i have vtiax only.



Look at VTMGX or VFWAX. Another option is to use the search bar at the top right of the page for additional posts with other ideas.

User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 5568
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bertilak » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:03 am

Erwin wrote:
livesoft wrote:I will definitely be rebalancing today per my IPS.


Why, are you convinced that the market will not continue to go down? Would it not be prudent to wait?

By establishing a re-balance band one has predetermined the appropriate amount of market movement it is prudent to wait for. One may be right or wrong in any case but acting on decisions made before the you-know-what hits the fan is better than making snap decisions when in a highly emotional state.
Listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. (There! I've said it.)

jjface
Posts: 2453
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jjface » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:28 am

Looks like the markets will open in more sensible territory in a minute. Opening 5% or more down would have been crazy.

Da5id
Posts: 1367
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:39 am

Freefall seems to not be materializing in open, US markets down a bit, Europe up a bit...

wikiradio
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wikiradio » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:40 am

jjface wrote:Looks like the markets will open in more sensible territory in a minute. Opening 5% or more down would have been crazy.


Are you kidding? I was hoping to buy today!

Post Reply