I would suggest you read older threads on this site (including THIS one), and see people, just as confident as you are right now, post in 2010, and 2011, and 2012, and 2013, and 2014, and 2015, that a crash is coming very soon, because of X, Y, or Z.broadstone wrote:With Brexit looming and an election, it's going to b a volatile year.
Every year is a volatile year.
Being conservative is fine. Being 100% in cash is not conservative. It's also risky (Unless you are so wealthy that you don't need any growth on your money at all).
You will likely never get back in. If the market keeps going up, you're going to think it's more and more overvalued, and more and more "due" for a crash. If the market crashes, the news is going to be bad, real bad, and you will want to wait for it to crash "a little further" before getting back in.
Instead of swinging 100% cash, 100% stocks... why not just adopt a 50/50 (or 30/70) stocks/bonds-cash portfolio and just hold through all the bumps.
You seem to think that avoiding the crash is the most important thing. But just holding through a crash has worked out pretty well so far. You still get a decent returns, even if you don't avoid the crash.
Let me repeat that: You don't have to avoid the crash to get good returns. The 9%-10% historical stock market return INCLUDES all the crashes.
But trying to avoid a crash can mean you instead avoid the climbs, and you may end up getting less return than if you had just bought and held.