U.S. stocks in freefall

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:34 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Two ways to reduce speculation - raise the cost of capital (increase interest rates) and raise the margin requirement. Ironically, both of those tools belong in the tool chest of the Federal Reserve Board. There is no other institution responsible for the setting of those percentages, none. So, if you want to point fingers you know where to look.
I don't care what the "Watson" algorithms do; the market will always find its true value and I will own it when it does. :moneybag

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:29 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:I don't care what the "Watson" algorithms do; the market will always find its true value and I will own it when it does. :moneybag


Freefalling objects (the subject of this thread) arrive to their true place only when they hit the ground.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:52 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I don't care what the "Watson" algorithms do; the market will always find its true value and I will own it when it does. :moneybag
Freefalling objects (the subject of this thread) arrive to their true place only when they hit the ground.
Sandy showed the Jersey Shore ground is good.

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2,000 Posts and Lesson Learned

Postby Taylor Larimore » Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:00 pm

Bogleheads:

August 8, 2011
This topic, U.S. stocks in freefall, was posted on a day the Dow plunged 635 points closing at 10,810. Gloom and doom were everywhere. Many investors were frantically selling their shares for fear of losing more money.

September 3, 2015
Today, four years later, the Dow is over 16,000 (not including dividends).

Lesson learned: STAY THE COURSE

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:01 am

Dip Buyer Alert! 200 250 :oops: point drop in the DOW ahead today!
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:35 am

Browser wrote:Dip Buyer Alert! 200 250 :oops: point drop in the DOW ahead today!


Happy Labor day to you too! :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby autonomy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:31 am

Browser wrote:Dip Buyer Alert! 200 250 :oops: point drop in the DOW ahead today!


Headlines "Stock plunge 1.5%".

"Plunge" :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby flyingaway » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:09 pm

I have been waiting for this thread to get revived so that I can do some buying.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:27 pm

flyingaway wrote:I have been waiting for this thread to get revived so that I can do some buying.

Always good to buy on dips. A time-proven strategy.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby flyingaway » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:46 pm

Browser wrote:
flyingaway wrote:I have been waiting for this thread to get revived so that I can do some buying.

Always good to buy on dips. A time-proven strategy.


I view this thread as the indicator of goodness.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:01 pm

Browser wrote:Dip Buyer Alert! 200 250 :oops: point drop in the DOW ahead today!
That ain't noting, I bought REITs today. Now they are in free fall.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:22 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Browser wrote:
flyingaway wrote:I have been waiting for this thread to get revived so that I can do some buying.

Always good to buy on dips. A time-proven strategy.


I view this thread as the indicator of goodness.

Maybe not totally PC, but there are dips in the road.

[OT image removed by admin LadyGeek]

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby rakaye47 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:42 pm

Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby sawhorse » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:53 pm

rakaye47 wrote:Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?

I've stopped trying to see a correlation between stock prices and news. A company can exceed earnings expectations and fall in price the next day, and it can report lower than expected and rise in price.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby JoMoney » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:03 am

rakaye47 wrote:Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?

Maybe it was anticipated that it would be worse, so the bad news wasn't bad enough to make it good enough good news.
Or maybe too many people were already anticipating that bad news = good news, but those operating at a higher degree of anticipation knew that if everyone else thinks that [bad news = good news] then it might have been over priced news, so ([bad news = good news]*majority opinion)=bad news

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:36 am

rakaye47 wrote:Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?


The criteria are not what the analysts have expected from the labor report but the threshold for the Fed action on interest rates. Furthermore, a possibility of the Fed not raising rates in September may be perceived as bad news; markets don't like uncertainty.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:40 am

rakaye47 wrote:Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?

Along those lines, I hear the volatility is due to "no one knows" what the Fed may do in the near future. Excuse me, but isn't it totally clear they will more likely than not raise interest rates by 0.25% in a couple of weeks?

("Cheer up", they said. "Things could be worse." So, I cheered up and, sure enough, things got worse.)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Toons » Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:45 am

rakaye47 wrote:Why did the labor report make stocks go down? It was weaker than expected, so shouldn't that mean no rate hike in Sep? Bad news = good news?


1.Emotion :happy
2.Perception :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby peppers » Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:06 am

Regarding interest rates, in the words of SNL Roseanne Roseannadanna......"never mind."
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby FedGuy » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:54 pm

Leeraar wrote:Excuse me, but isn't it totally clear they will more likely than not raise interest rates by 0.25% in a couple of weeks?


No, it's not totally clear. I don't know what the Fed will do and wouldn't hazard a guess either way, but in the last few weeks I've read a lot of chatter on the Internet speculating that the rate hike will be postponed because of what's going on in China, the recent jitters in the market, the surge of the dollar, and whatever other reasons people find relevant. It may or may not matter, and the Fed may or may not raise rates in September, but it's reasonable to say that it's not "totally clear" what the Fed will do.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby adave » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:58 pm

While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:05 pm

adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.

I agree that it doesn't seem as ominous, which can mean one of two things: (1) it's not as good a time to buy because there's not enough blood in the streets, or (2) it can turn really ugly down the road. Either way, I'm keeping my powder dry right now.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:08 pm

adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.


It's not over until it's over. And it's never really over.

Wait until the Chinese stock market drops another 30%, and the Chinese start dumping the U.S. bonds. Wait until the influx of migrants to Europe results in the street warfare and disruptions of transportation. Wait until a cyber breach of the NYSE resets trades and causes chaos. Or something else I can't envision a priori but will refer to a posteriori.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:50 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.


It's not over until it's over. And it's never really over.

Wait until the Chinese stock market drops another 30%, and the Chinese start dumping the U.S. bonds. Wait until the influx of migrants to Europe results in the street warfare and disruptions of transportation. Wait until a cyber breach of the NYSE resets trades and causes chaos. Or something else I can't envision a priori but will refer to a posteriori.

Victoria

Sounds good to me, Victoria!
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby steve roy » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:11 pm

Browser wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.


It's not over until it's over. And it's never really over.

Wait until the Chinese stock market drops another 30%, and the Chinese start dumping the U.S. bonds. Wait until the influx of migrants to Europe results in the street warfare and disruptions of transportation. Wait until a cyber breach of the NYSE resets trades and causes chaos. Or something else I can't envision a priori but will refer to a posteriori.

Victoria

Sounds good to me, Victoria!


Black Swan, here we come!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:57 pm

FedGuy wrote:
Leeraar wrote:Excuse me, but isn't it totally clear they will more likely than not raise interest rates by 0.25% in a couple of weeks?


No, it's not totally clear. I don't know what the Fed will do and wouldn't hazard a guess either way, but in the last few weeks I've read a lot of chatter on the Internet speculating that the rate hike will be postponed because of what's going on in China, the recent jitters in the market, the surge of the dollar, and whatever other reasons people find relevant. It may or may not matter, and the Fed may or may not raise rates in September, but it's reasonable to say that it's not "totally clear" what the Fed will do.

I am guessing you do not remember the 1980s, when Fed. actions and deliberations were totally opaque and secret. This is day vs. night, compared to then. To say that the markets are thrashing because of what the Feds might decide at their meeting is just ludicrous.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Toons » Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:12 pm

March 2009
The Nasdaq was @1270
It was up more than 4 fold recently.
"Thrashing"?
It is just doing what it always does after a huge run.
A little Reversion to the Mean
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby FedGuy » Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:38 pm

Leeraar wrote:I am guessing you do not remember the 1980s, when Fed. actions and deliberations were totally opaque and secret. This is day vs. night, compared to then. To say that the markets are thrashing because of what the Feds might decide at their meeting is just ludicrous.

I do remember the '80s, I acknowledge that the Fed is much more transparent now than it was then, and I never said that uncertainty about the Fed's upcoming decision is causing the markets to thrash. I was merely disagreeing with your statement that it is "totally clear" that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates this month. In fact, after posting my previous comment, I began catching up on some of my emails from this week, and saw this commentary from Charles Schwab:

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Schwab-s-Perspective-on-Recent-Market-Volatility?cmp=em-QYB

Note paragraph 3: "We believe that recent turmoil in the financial markets has reduced the likelihood of an interest-rate hike in September, but the Fed hasn’t taken the option off the table." That's just one of a dozen articles I've read in the last week or two making the same point.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby adave » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:42 pm

In general I find trying to figure out/predict/deal with the markets very stomach-turning and anxiety creating -- so I do the only thing I know how to. Buy some more stocks/funds when it goes down and plan to hold forever. Never sell even when it gets really ugly. Never lock in those losses and just hope for the best long-term. I haven't really figured out any other way to deal.

This is the only way I can deal with stock investing mentally! That and drinking lots of red wine!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby sawhorse » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:50 pm

Toons wrote:March 2009
The Nasdaq was @1270
It was up more than 4 fold recently.
"Thrashing"?
It is just doing what it always does after a huge run.
A little Reversion to the Mean

March 2000
The Nasdaq was @5132
Most recent close @4684.
Reversion to the mean, yes. Little Reversion to the Mean? Hopefully.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Pizzasteve510 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:51 am

VictoriaF wrote:
Pizzasteve510 wrote:Why do we keep quoting the Dow? Most analysts agree the Dow is for the news and a metric based on only a few industrial stocks is not a good market indicator. Can we at least switch to quoting the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 or a vanguard fund? We should start teaching people to use the right metrics and set a better example.

Thanks


Most news organizations quote the Dow and it serves as an easier reference. I remember when Dow was at the 18k level, but the corresponding S&P500 level is not in my active memory. My heuristic is to pay attention to the Dow and divide it by 10 to estimate the corresponding S&P500 value. Ultimately, I care about my own assets. If the Dow and S&P500 are down approximately 2%, as they are at the moment, then my U.S. stock holdings are down 2% at the moment.

Victoria

Understood. I was influenced in my comment by and NPR story where a financial guru mentioned that no one on Wall Street actually pays attention to the Dow other than reporters. He stated that professionals use and apply the other indexes, and that the Dow is an outdated metric that should go. For example, imagine if we always reported the weather by listing the weather in a neighboring city. Sure it is directionally similar, but why not report the more accurate weather.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Johno » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:37 pm

Scott Teresi wrote:HomerJ and Backpacker,
From the studies I've read, following a moving average (or cross between two moving averages) has generally reduced volatility/standard deviation (to about 70% of market risk) but historically provided close to the same return over time, using as much data as is available (e.g. going back 100 years, testing in other countries' markets, testing in other broad asset classes, etc., etc.).

As market prices have a momentum or trend component to them, following moving averages generally detracts from returns during bull markets (due to "incorrect" signals in hindsight) and increases returns during the one signal they get right when the bear market comes.

Transaction fees and taxes reduce the benefit of moving averages.

I tried this with readily available data for mid 1988-end 2014 on the SP Total Return Index, and LIBOR (as cash return if money is out of the market).

Beginning from when you can generate a 200SMA from that data, buy and hold the SPTR returned 10.16% std dev 17.94%, all money from S&P>cash the trading day after S&P closes below 200SMA, all money back in S&P the trading day after it closes back above 200SMA, returned 10.01% std dev 11.73%. Of the 26 yrs, the buy/hold strategy won 20. There were 3 ties (when continuous uptrend resulted in all stocks either way). 200SMA trend following won only 3 times, but by a lot, 16% and 23% in 2001-2 and 48% in 2008. 200SMA 'predicts' several bear markets for each real one but when big bears don't start with a huge one day loss and last long enough for 200SMA to move down a lot by the time the S&P crosses back above it, it can save a lot.

As you say there'd be transactions costs and taxes; former wouldn't change things a lot in modern low commission markets but latter might if it was done in taxable. Also I assumed LIBOR flat on the cash (best bank accounts now are L+100 but it wasn't always so, T-bill would be L-25 now, often much more negative in the past) but you aren't in cash that much of the time and changing to L+25 or -25 only changes the return answer 6 or 7bps.

Moreover though, 26yrs is a lot of daily movements but trend direction changes are much less frequent; the key is really how many if any big and fairly prolonged wash outs there are in a given period of years, for which the period isn't all that long (though OTOH it's unknowable how often big prolonged routs will occur in the future no matter how much past data you use).

Somebody said this strategy was mentioned because it's done well lately, but if lately is post (recent) crash it's the opposite. It saved a huge amount in '08 (the market entered that year below 200SMA and was above only a few days the whole disastrous year) and didn't lose by much in '09 but had its two worst years in the 26 yr period trailing by 14% and 11% in 2010-11 as the market leveled out and gave periodic 'sell' signals never followed by big wash outs. In 2012-end 2014 the S&P was above the 200SMA almost all the time and trend following trailed by around 1% pa on average.

Set up as as the straw man of 'free lunch' of course something this simple couldn't be. However the performance in crashes might be worthy of thought by those focused on 'deep risk' (though again it doesn't help if the rout starts with a huge one day loss assuming one can't react intraday). If OTOH one (perhaps opportunistically) takes the position 'I can't eat low std dev, only returns', then add in some optimism that long routs will be less frequent from now than in the sample, then nothing to see here, move along. :D
Last edited by Johno on Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:31 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:54 pm

Tuesday morning ought to be a fun day. When they sell off going into a holiday weekend there are some weak hands at the helm, so I'm betting they'll be primed to bail if the market sells off at the open.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nedsaid » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:57 pm

Browser wrote:Tuesday morning ought to be a fun day. When they sell off going into a holiday weekend there are some weak hands at the helm, so I'm betting they'll be primed to bail if the market sells off at the open.


I just checked as of Sunday night and the futures are positive. Right now it looks like we will have a rally. But a lot can change in 36 hours
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Thebigc » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:06 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.


It's not over until it's over. And it's never really over.

Wait until the Chinese stock market drops another 30%, and the Chinese start dumping the U.S. bonds. Wait until the influx of migrants to Europe results in the street warfare and disruptions of transportation. Wait until a cyber breach of the NYSE resets trades and causes chaos. Or something else I can't envision a priori but will refer to a posteriori.

Victoria


China has been dumping US bonds, 180 billion worth.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:07 pm

Asia is down. How it trades today will tell the tale for Tuesday's U.S. market.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:10 am

Thebigc wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
adave wrote:While granted I was a newbie investor back in 2008 - 2009 - I recall feeling that there could be massive bank failures and complete collapse of the financial system was possible.

This correction simply doesn't feel as ominous to me - so I will continue to buy equities little bit at a time. We shall see if it pays off.


It's not over until it's over. And it's never really over.

Wait until the Chinese stock market drops another 30%, and the Chinese start dumping the U.S. bonds. Wait until the influx of migrants to Europe results in the street warfare and disruptions of transportation. Wait until a cyber breach of the NYSE resets trades and causes chaos. Or something else I can't envision a priori but will refer to a posteriori.

Victoria


China has been dumping US bonds, 180 billion worth.


My comment is eternal ... just as this thread is. For as long as I don't put a date on my scenarios, they are always possible some time in the future. For as long as we don't quantify freefall, we can return to this thread with every market decline regardless of the values of market indexes.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:18 am

I predict that the market will go down by 50% sometime between now and 2025.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby backpacker » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:26 am

Browser wrote:I predict that the market will go down by 50% sometime between now and 2025.


Wait. Are you sticking by your last prediction? A -49% loss from the 2,134.72 high before we get back to 2,134.72.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby lack_ey » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:00 am

Johno wrote:[...sma200 investigation]
Somebody said this strategy was mentioned because it's done well lately, but if lately is post (recent) crash it's the opposite. It saved a huge amount in '08 (the market entered that year below 200SMA and was above only a few days the whole disastrous year) and didn't lose by much in '09 but had its two worst years in the 26 yr period trailing by 14% and 11% in 2010-11 as the market leveled out and gave periodic 'sell' signals never followed by big wash outs. In 2012-end 2014 the S&P was above the 200SMA almost all the time and trend following trailed by around 1% pa on average.

Set up as as the straw man of 'free lunch' of course something this simple couldn't be. However the performance in crashes might be worthy of thought by those focused on 'deep risk' (though again it doesn't help if the rout starts with a huge one day loss assuming one can't react intraday). If OTOH one (perhaps opportunistically) takes the position 'I can't eat low std dev, only returns', then add in some optimism that long routs will be less frequent from now than in the sample, then nothing to see here, move along. :D


I think that was me. And by "lately" I really meant that the 08-09 crash is still on everybody's minds and it did well then and that was such a big victory that many periods that pretty much any X—present test with X prior to the crash will make it look pretty good. We need several more 10-11 before everybody gives up on the idea. :twisted:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:04 am

backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:I predict that the market will go down by 50% sometime between now and 2025.


Wait. Are you sticking by your last prediction? A -49% loss from the 2,134.72 high before we get back to 2,134.72.

This is my back up prediction. As a talking head, I want to be sure I've predicted something that I can point to later as evidence of my forecasting expertise.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:06 am

Reality check time

At times the US Market will go Up

At times the US Market will go Down

At times the US Market will go Sideways

. . . And that's the way it its . . .
~Member of the Active Retired Force || Black swan ready portfolio, withdrawal and spending rate 0%~

Browser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:08 am

cfs wrote:Reality check time

At times the US Market will go Up

At times the US Market will go Down

At times the US Market will go Sideways

. . . And that's the way it its . . .

Is this your prediction? :confused
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Taylor Larimore » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:16 am

Browser wrote:
cfs wrote:Reality check time

At times the US Market will go Up

At times the US Market will go Down

At times the US Market will go Sideways

. . . And that's the way it its . . .

Is this your prediction? :confused

Browser:

It's my prediction also.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:22 am

I predict that if the S&P 500 does not go below 1750 this year, then four years from today most people will have completely forgotten the degree of anxiety they felt this year, and will have completely forgotten all the Delphic-but-pessimistic prognostications by Bill Grosses, Mebane Fabers, and Mohammed El-Erians, all suggesting, at least approximately, that cash is the best investment right now.

They will falsely "remember" that the stock market has proceeded calmly and steadily upward from 2009 on.

How many people even remember things like this:

Image

I was scared in 2011. Were you? I didn't do anything about it, though. "Feel the fear and do nothing anyway"
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:30 am

nisiprius wrote:I was scared in 2011. Were you? I didn't do anything about it, though. "Feel the fear and do nothing anyway"

Yes, and since the blip of 2011 does not appear in the year over year numbers, it's being forgotten that much faster.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby lack_ey » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:36 am

Those were the times: freak-outs about debt, OMG a double dip recession is coming, and more. A lot of ads for gold on TV.

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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Toons » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:51 am

nisiprius wrote:I predict that if the S&P 500 does not go below 1750 this year, then four years from today most people will have completely forgotten the degree of anxiety they felt this year, and will have completely forgotten all the Delphic-but-pessimistic prognostications by Bill Grosses, Mebane Fabers, and Mohammed El-Erians, all suggesting, at least approximately, that cash is the best investment right now.

They will falsely "remember" that the stock market has proceeded calmly and steadily upward from 2009 on.

How many people even remember things like this:

Image

I was scared in 2011. Were you? I didn't do anything about it, though. "Feel the fear and do nothing anyway"


No,,,Scared of What? :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ruralavalon » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:33 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Browser wrote:
cfs wrote:Reality check time

At times the US Market will go Up

At times the US Market will go Down

At times the US Market will go Sideways

. . . And that's the way it its . . .

Is this your prediction? :confused

Browser:

It's my prediction also.

Best wishes.
Taylor

I predict that the stock market will open on Tuesday.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby tibbitts » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:44 am

adave wrote:In general I find trying to figure out/predict/deal with the markets very stomach-turning and anxiety creating -- so I do the only thing I know how to. Buy some more stocks/funds when it goes down and plan to hold forever. Never sell even when it gets really ugly. Never lock in those losses and just hope for the best long-term. I haven't really figured out any other way to deal.

This is the only way I can deal with stock investing mentally! That and drinking lots of red wine!

We often talk about holding "forever" here on the forums, but that's not practical for 98% of investors; only for institutions. Most of us will need, or at least hope, to spend down all or nearly all of our investments at some point, and to spend them, we'll have to sell. So by definition, some of us will sell when it's "really ugly" and thus lock in losses, because at the time we won't know if "really ugly" will get better or worse, and/or we will have run out of other funds to spend and will have no alternative.


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