U.S. stocks in freefall

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VictoriaF
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:24 pm

cfs wrote:All is well on The Western Front.


Hopefully, it will be less brutal than Erich Maria Remarque's book.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:48 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
cfs wrote:All is well on The Western Front.


Hopefully, it will be less brutal than Erich Maria Remarque's book.

Victoria

Wow, that was the Real Western Front (and Remarque knew what he was writing about).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby abuss368 » Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:07 pm

Are we in freefall? Is this a back up the truck moment?
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czeckers
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby czeckers » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:33 pm

Precious metals in freefall for sure. Emerging markets beat up a bit. U.S. Stocks certainly not in free fall now.
Last edited by czeckers on Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:34 pm

Not yet.

No this is not a back up the truck moment. We have closed the month and all major indexes (S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ) were up for the month of July 2015--not by much, but gains are gains are gains.

Wait for MOABO.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:59 pm

abuss368 wrote:Are we in freefall? Is this a back up the truck moment?


404 backup-the-truck-freefall not found:

Image
Last edited by zaboomafoozarg on Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby JimmyJammy » Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:05 am

What kind of % correction are you looking for, to back up the truck?

10%? that'd put the S&P around 1890
15%? that'd put the S&P around 1785
20%? 1680

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Munir » Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:52 am

abuss368 wrote:Are we in freefall? Is this a back up the truck moment?


What kind of a question is this?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby abuss368 » Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:04 pm

A complete joke! I had two individuals tell me this week stocks are dropping, get out, people "are losing money"!

I simply responded with "stay the course"!
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:35 pm

czeckers wrote:Precious metals in freefall for sure.
Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby protagonist » Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:05 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
czeckers wrote:Precious metals in freefall for sure.
Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.


Are bonds down that much? I don't follow....I'm in CDs...haven't trusted bonds for years.... and have only a very small bond allocation. But I thought the decline was (at least to date) quite minor, following a long run-up.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Taylor Larimore » Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:26 pm

Bonds are for safety. Total Bond Market Index Fund is up year to date.

Stocks are best for higher returns--but with more risk of loss.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:06 pm

Welcome to the month of August.

So far so good for the month of August 2015.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:37 pm

protagonist wrote:Are bonds down that much?
It depends on when they were bought. As bonds fell I had to put more money into the fund to keep the asset allocation 60/40, they kept falling. Total bond is my largest single fund it is up .80% YTD. Short bonds are up 1.25% go figure.

With yesterday's dividends I'm back in the black. I subtract tax when I figure return, I'm not permitted by law to contribute to a tax deferred account.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:30 pm

Well, based on this article August is not one of the worst months in the US Market (take a look at September).

Monthly average DJIA return since 1896:

JUL = 1.46%
DEC = 1.43%
APR = 1.21%
AUG = 1.13%
JAN = 0.94%
NOV = 0.94%
MAR = 0.83%
OCT = 0.30%
JUN = 0.25%
MAY = -0.07%
FEB = -0.16%
SEP = -1.06%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-hi ... 2014-07-30

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Sidney » Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:51 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
czeckers wrote:Precious metals in freefall for sure.
Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.

I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Sun Aug 09, 2015 9:59 pm

Sidney wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?
I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:05 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Sidney wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?
I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

Actually, foreign currencies are your biggest losers. Foreign stocks have done OK in local currency, but you have to count the gains in US$.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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kenyan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby kenyan » Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:13 pm

Foreign stocks are still ahead of domestic stocks for the year, even in US dollars. Emerging markets are the laggards, but Total International is still beating TSM.
Retirement investing is a marathon.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Sidney » Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:46 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Sidney wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?
I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

Mine too. Down ~3% for one year but up considerably YTD based on VG reporting.

I am 40 (equity)/60 and I've been buying selling stocks to eat and buy bonds for a couple of years now.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Mon Aug 10, 2015 4:39 pm

kenyan wrote:Foreign stocks are still ahead of domestic stocks for the year, even in US dollars. Emerging markets are the laggards, but Total International is still beating TSM.
Endpoints, endpoints all is endpoints.
Source: Morningstar
Want to prove international stocks suck? Use the last three months. Total [U.S.] Stock Market, blue. Total International Stock Index, orange.
Image
Want to prove they rule? Use year-to-date.
Image
Want to prove they suck? Use the last 12 months.
Image
Want to prove they suck big-time? Use the last 5 years.
Image
Want to prove they rule? Use 2000-2009 inclusive.
Image
Want to prove it makes little difference? Use "all available data" for the oldest standard international index. Annualized: 6.07% for U.S., 5.31% for EAFE.
Image
Want to prove international stocks suck? Use the Dimson & al. data for 1900 through 2014, inclusive: annualized real returns, dividends reinvested, inflation-corrected, 6.5% for the United States, 4.4% for the rest of the world.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Mon Aug 10, 2015 4:44 pm

What about us "beginning points?" I feel we're being left out. :-(
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:36 pm

Browser wrote:What about us "beginning points?" I feel we're being left out. :-(
My apologies. When I was growing up it was said that "endpoints" included "beginning points." I must remember to use inclusive language and from now on I will refer to "terminal-pointkind."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:48 am

Just your typical day in the markets.

Sector rotation.
Cover your shorts.
Buying opportunity.
Invest in China now.
Stock pickers market.
Stocks are over-sold.
Time to add some gold.
Catching falling knives.
This time it's different.
Avoid bonds at all costs.
We are in an oil contango.
Get some money off the table.
Time for some internationals.
Plenty of European opportunities.
Get ready to deploy your dry powder.
Don't underestimate Emerging Markets.
There is always a bull market somewhere.
You can make money or you can make excuses but you can't do both.
If you are not having fun with this market then you are in the wrong investments.

Oh my . . . nobody knows nothing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leif » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:41 am

cfs wrote: nobody knows nothing.

That means everybody knows something?

Your text forms a nice curve. Is that a market prediction? If so, do I rotate the text + or - 90 degrees?
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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby cfs » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:46 am

Leif wrote:
cfs wrote: nobody knows nothing.

That means everybody knows something?

Your text forms a nice curve. Is that a market prediction? If so, do I rotate the text + or - 90 degrees?

Ha, it can be rotated as part of the "sector rotation" !!!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby hexagon » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:56 am

Leif wrote:
cfs wrote: nobody knows nothing.

That means everybody knows something?


According to Leonard Cohen there are some things everybody knows:

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:30 am

Down 250 so far today after the 200+ rout yesterday. Look out below.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Sidney » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:39 am

Accumulators with unrealized losses in their taxable accounts should be taking advantage of the opportunity.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby broadstone » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:11 am

I liquidated to cash 2 months ago. The buying opportunity China will cause could be a once in a decade opportunity, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie). :sharebeer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Guest9876 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:19 am

Deutsche Bank says the yuan is overvalued by up to 10%. https://www.morningstar.com/news/market ... ch-10.html

On a macro level this has been fueled by the Chinese buying up huge forex reserves and paying with cheap exports, and they aren't buying but they aren't exactly dumping either.

Most economists agree the devaluation will be necessary but it's going to rile markets in the short and medium term. And American companies are going to have difficulty reaching that export market. So all told this probably bodes well for consumer defensives / utilities.

If the Chinese government is looking to intentionally rile up markets--- well, there's a lot they can still do.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby AWH_CPA » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:21 am

broadstone wrote:, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie). :sharebeer


Yuban Coffee. You can sprinkle that stuff on anything or eat it straight out of the can for a quick pick me up.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Patzer » Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:04 am

Nice dip, I moved up my September buy to today. :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby HomerJ » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:55 pm

broadstone wrote:I liquidated to cash 2 months ago. The buying opportunity China will cause could be a once in a decade opportunity, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie). :sharebeer


2009 was less than 10 years ago...

This buying opportunity will be greater than that?

By the way, I hope you don't disappear from this site if the markets go back up...

We've had a lot of people claiming they went 100% to cash.... in 2011... in 2012... in 2013.... in2014... And then as the market continued to climb, they just stopped posting for some reason.

Also, please post when you get back into the market... I'll go ahead and let you claim you got out 2 months ago... but please real-time post when you get back in.

Good luck to you!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby 2Birds1Stone » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:03 pm

Took advantage of the drop today to get my AA closer to what is outlined in my IPS.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby grettman » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:13 pm

I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? So let's assume your personal investment strategy is "such and such" with an allocation of "such and such" with purchases at "such and such" intervals --- to move those purchases up because of a drop is market timing right?

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ray.james » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:16 pm

It was just 1.3%?
People are getting excited about 1-2% after 100% continuous run-up . Desperate times :happy
Emerging markets have PE of 12. Developed markets close to 15. Pretty good valuations.

@grettman In my view yes. It is market timing.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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U.S. stocks in free-FLAT

Postby plymster » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:36 pm

The S&P started the year at ~2058. The low today was ~2052. Wouldn't it be more apt to say the market is in free-"flat" (not counting dividends/inflation). My AA is still holding steady with all the price flatness for the year, so I don't even have to re-balance. >yawn<

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Patzer » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:13 pm

ray.james wrote:It was just 1.3%?
People are getting excited about 1-2% after 100% continuous run-up . Desperate times :happy
Emerging markets have PE of 12. Developed markets close to 15. Pretty good valuations.

US Total Market was down 3% over the last 2 days and Emerging Markets down 4-5%.
I bought some of both at 11:15AM today.

grettman wrote:I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? So let's assume your personal investment strategy is "such and such" with an allocation of "such and such" with purchases at "such and such" intervals --- to move those purchases up because of a drop is market timing right?


Yes, it is market timing. Not everyone's IPS is that restrictive. My IPS schedules me to buy a certain amount each quarter. I schedule it at the last day of the quarter in this case 9/30, but if I see an opportunity before then, I buy.
Do I think a 3% dip is a buying opportunity? Yes.
Do I know if this is really the lowest point in the quarter? Of course not!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Twins Fan » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:21 pm

What dip today? S&P 500 is down -0.08 now.

Unless some of you are talking ETFs, you get closing time prices if you bought index funds.

Great move! :oops:

I always love it and brag about it when I go to the store and they have 1- 3% sales also. :wink: :D

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Patzer » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:31 pm

Twins Fan wrote:What dip today? S&P 500 is down -0.08 now.

Unless some of you are talking ETFs, you get closing time prices if you bought index funds.

Great move! :oops:

I always love it and brag about it when I go to the store and they have 1- 3% sales also. :wink: :D


LOL, I am not bragging. I only posted my trade, to poke fun at the title of this thread. I think this thread is a bit tongue in cheek as people always bring it back from the dead whenever the market dips a few percent. I do use ETFs.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Thebigc » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:03 pm

Twins Fan wrote:What dip today? S&P 500 is down -0.08 now.

Unless some of you are talking ETFs, you get closing time prices if you bought index funds.

Great move! :oops:

I always love it and brag about it when I go to the store and they have 1- 3% sales also. :wink: :D


The S&P is down?

Sidney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Sidney » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:13 pm

Looks like it closed up 10bp
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

Twins Fan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Twins Fan » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:16 pm

As it turns out... no. Looks like the S&P finished today being up 0.10%. So, what was all the talk about today? :D

These "buying opportunities" some are getting so excited about are likely to amount to next to nothing 10 years from now. But hey, if it makes some feel better, I guess....

Don't do something.... just stand there. :wink:

letsgobobby
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby letsgobobby » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:21 pm

Yeah, that was a bummer since I had an order to buy a very large (for me) amount of stocks at the close.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby broadstone » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:24 pm

Twins Fan wrote:These "buying opportunities" some are getting so excited about are likely to amount to next to nothing 10 years from now. But hey, if it makes some feel better, I guess....


Well you can continue to think that but you can be sure there will be a large correction at some point. History tells us so. Just be happy for those of us who are willing to sit out and wait.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby broadstone » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:25 pm

HomerJ wrote:Also, please post when you get back into the market... I'll go ahead and let you claim you got out 2 months ago... but please real-time post when you get back in.

Good luck to you!


I will post, promise.

Twins Fan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Twins Fan » Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:36 pm

broadstone wrote:
Twins Fan wrote:These "buying opportunities" some are getting so excited about are likely to amount to next to nothing 10 years from now. But hey, if it makes some feel better, I guess....


Well you can continue to think that but you can be sure there will be a large correction at some point. History tells us so. Just be happy for those of us who are willing to sit out and wait.


Of course there will... and your point is??

What I'm talking about is buying at S&P being 2100, 2080, or even 2050 and thinking it's some great buy. That is likely to mean very little in the long run.

Be happy for those like you that went to cash to sit and wait?? Okay?! :confused :-?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ruralavalon » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:45 am

protagonist wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
czeckers wrote:Precious metals in freefall for sure.
Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.


Are bonds down that much? I don't follow....I'm in CDs...haven't trusted bonds for years.... and have only a very small bond allocation. But I thought the decline was (at least to date) quite minor, following a long run-up.

What decline? Where are the losers? What losses?

My core bond fund, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade, is up YTD. In quickly looking at Vanguard's bond offerings, I didn't see any intermediate-term or short-term bond fund that is negative YTD.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ruralavalon » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:54 am

As for "U.S. stocks in freefall", I love this nostalgia thread reborn periodically. This reminds me not to worry. Is another "taper tantrum" about to happen? I sure don't know, but more importantly why should I even care?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | | Wiki article link:Getting Started


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