U.S. stocks in freefall

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Leeraar
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:39 pm

Leeraar wrote:
neurosphere wrote:Not only show the Y=0 line, but also use a semi-log plot.

:?: :?:

L.


Thanks for the explanation, which I will study. However, my nitpick comment was simply that you cannot put the value zero on a log scale.

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby BigFoot48 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:29 pm

cfs wrote:BigFoot48 thanks for the link, yes, on the same article he talks about buying stocks yesterday ("and if you told me the market was going to go down 500 points next week, I would have bought those same businesses and stocks yesterday"). I see, he continues to be "Bullish on America."

Yes, I liked that "don't try to time the market" sentiment very much too.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:19 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:If someone figures out stocks freefall, will he get a Nobel in physics or economics?

Victoria

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You are diplomatic. Perhaps, you could also get a Nobel in Peace.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby neurosphere » Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:21 pm

Leeraar wrote:
Leeraar wrote:
neurosphere wrote:Not only show the Y=0 line, but also use a semi-log plot.

:?: :?:

L.


Thanks for the explanation, which I will study. However, my nitpick comment was simply that you cannot put the value zero on a log scale.

L.


Ha, yes, of course. I know that (blush). It was a joke! Yeah, that's it.

But seriously, you are of course absolutely right. No such thing as a "zero" on a log scale. EITHER show Y=0 OR use a log scale for the Y axis, both of which I think present stock return data in a more meaningful way.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Fri Oct 03, 2014 5:12 pm

I love log plots (y) of total return vs linear (x) of time.

If it's not a straight line, it's interesting!

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dgdevil » Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:16 pm

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
dgdevil wrote:@Clearly Irrational. I appreciate your mastery of technicals, and agree with your longer term prognosis. What are the key support, resistance levels + alarm bells for the S+P500 in coming weeks?


The short answer is that the small caps are leading the large caps, which is normal.

The S&P500 broke the bollinger band squeeze on Sept 25th and is now riding the lower bound downwards. RSI is still dropping and MACD divergence widening so the trend probably isn't over yet. Chaikin money flow just turned negative from postivie and volume is rising so that tends to reinforce the idea of further decline. The P&F chart shows a double bottom breakdown with an 1860 target. First support is around 1910 with second support around 1860 or so, the same as the breakdown target.

Over the next few days I expect the market to head down from it's low on Oct 1st.


Excellent, thanks! Let the bad times roll.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby oldzey » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:25 pm

I love buying funds on sale, er, I mean it'll be time to rebalance soon. :D
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Small cap and large cap stock returns ?

Postby Taylor Larimore » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:21 pm

The short answer is that the small caps are leading the large caps, which is normal.

Actual Year-To-Date performance:

Vanguard Large Cap Index (VLCAX) total return is 7.90%
Vanguard Small Cap Index VSMAX) total return is 0.52%

Best wishes.
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Re: Small cap and large cap stock returns ?

Postby ofcmetz » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:04 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
The short answer is that the small caps are leading the large caps, which is normal.

Actual Year-To-Date performance:

Vanguard Large Cap Index (VLCAX) total return is 7.90%
Vanguard Small Cap Index VSMAX) total return is 0.52%

Best wishes.
Taylor



Definitely turning into one of those years where small equities and large equities take separate paths, and last year small outperformed large by a decent margin.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby baw703916 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:50 pm

I don't think "leading" in this context means "having better returns". It could mean "being the first asset class to indicate the coming bear market". The conventional wisdom is that in the early stages of a bull market, small caps outperform large caps, while in the latter stages the converse is thought to be true.

Comparing the performance charts of Vanguard Large cap and Small cap indices seems to show this--small cap definitely did better in 2009, and large cap is doing better now, as Taylor points out.

So will there be a bear market in the near future? I don't know...but bull markets don't last forever, and we're in the 6th year of this one. People may want to check that they aren't holding more equity risk than is appropriate (always a good idea no matter what the market is doing). :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby DonCamillo » Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:03 pm

:greedy I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:58 pm

DonCamillo wrote::greedy I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?

How do you avoid RMDs? You are hoping for a bear to reduce your holdings to zero?

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ybsybs » Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:05 pm

Leeraar wrote:
DonCamillo wrote::greedy I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?

How do you avoid RMDs? You are hoping for a bear to reduce your holdings to zero?

L.


Is it not retiring that lets you delay RMDs?

IRS on RMDs: http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Pla ... ions-(RMDs)
"Beginning date for your first required minimum distribution

IRAs (including SEP and SIMPLE IRAs)
April 1 of the year following the calendar year in which you reach age 70½.

401(k), profit-sharing, 403(b), or other defined contribution plan
Generally, April 1 following the later of the calendar year in which you:
reach age 70½, or
retire.
"

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:48 pm

Ybsybs wrote:
Leeraar wrote:
DonCamillo wrote::greedy I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?

How do you avoid RMDs? You are hoping for a bear to reduce your holdings to zero?

L.


Is it not retiring that lets you delay RMDs?

IRS on RMDs: http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Pla ... ions-(RMDs)
"Beginning date for your first required minimum distribution

IRAs (including SEP and SIMPLE IRAs)
April 1 of the year following the calendar year in which you reach age 70½.

401(k), profit-sharing, 403(b), or other defined contribution plan
Generally, April 1 following the later of the calendar year in which you:
reach age 70½, or
retire.
"

Thank you. It has nothing to do with wishing for a bear. I misunderstood.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby garlandwhizzer » Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:55 pm

Technical analysis seems to be a point of sometimes humorous disagreement between some on this forum. Larry recently posted a good article on academic research looking at technical analysis. Below is a direct quote from his article. It's worthwhile to read the whole thing but the take home message is summed up neatly in one sentence: The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns.

The predictability of technical analysis can change over time. For example, the authors found that price-based technical trading strategies beat the market in their 90-year sample for the period from 1897 to 1986. However, they also found that this predictability disappears completely on a fresh 25-year sample for the period from 1987 to 2012.
Even at a conservative 10 percent level of statistical significance, they found that just 10 of the indicators show an ability to predict returns.
Compounding the problem is that some of the indicators exhibit sign-switching predictability in a subsample test.
Once they accounted for risk and transaction costs, the authors discovered none of the technical trading strategies beat their naive buy-and-hold strategy in either Sharpe ratio or risk-adjusted alpha.
The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns. They write: “This conclusion consistently holds even if we allow predictability to be state dependent on business cycles or sentiment regimes.”

One problem with technical market indicators is there is no risk story to explain why they should work. If ever they did work, it would be a result of behavioral errors among investors.

Because that’s the case, we shouldn’t be surprised if—once research is published showing a market indicator works—the signal’s value rapidly deteriorates and eventually disappears. We can see this occurring in the above example, where a strategy worked for 100 years until the publication of that finding, when it then stopped working.

These findings confirm the wisdom of the following comments on the value of technical market indicators.

Burton Malkiel, author of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” writes: “Technical analysis is anathema to the academic world. We love to pick on it. Our bullying tactics are prompted by two considerations: The method is patently false; and it’s easy to pick on. And while it may seem a bit unfair to pick on such a sorry target, just remember: it’s your money we are trying to save.”

Martin Fridson, who currently serves on the editorial boards of Financial Analysts Journal, CFA Digest and the Journal of Investment Management, had this to say about technical analysis: “The only thing we know for certain about technical analysis is that it’s possible to make a living publishing a newsletter on the subject.”



Garland Whizzer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby LadyGeek » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:04 pm

^^^ For completeness, here's the thread: a look at technical indicators

The above paragraph is from: Swedroe: Problems With Technical Analysis, from etf.com
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leeraar » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:07 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote: The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns.
Garland Whizzer

Ah, yes.

Does that include PE10 and its ilk?

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby DonCamillo » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:23 pm

Leeraar wrote:
Ybsybs wrote:
Leeraar wrote:
DonCamillo wrote:avoiding required minimum distributions

How do you avoid RMDs? You are hoping for a bear to reduce your holdings to zero?
L.

Is it not retiring that lets you delay RMDs?

Yes, I can continue contributing to my 401a and having my employer contribute as well, plus max out a 403b, a 457b, a Roth and a Spousal Roth, and I don't have to take RMDs until I retire. It is for RMD reasons that I hope to eventually retire on some future January 1st.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby garlandwhizzer » Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:10 pm

Leeraar asked:
garlandwhizzer wrote:
The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns.
Garland Whizzer

Ah, yes.

Does that include PE10 and its ilk?


I do not believe that PE10 was included. PE10 is a fundamental indicator based on earnings, not a technical one. Technical indicators do not derive from fundamentals like earnings, book value, etc., as I understand it, although I must confess that I am the opposite of an expert on technical analysis. I believe there is evidence that multiple fundamental indicators--PE10, PE1, PB, etc.--have some predictive power about future market performance but not enough to satisfy many of us. Technical indicators are, I believe, based solely on chart patterns of price performance over time which do a great job of demonstrating what has happened in the past but according to academics fail to reliably help investors with what will happen in the future.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby sketchy9 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:02 pm

Big drop today! The S&P closed at 1928.21, down over 2% for the day. It has fluctuated a bit since then (up to over 2k!) but it closed at 1927.88 on June 4th, 2014, which at that point was an all-time high. So, we're where we were 4 months ago. What will tomorrow bring? Exciting times! Well, maybe not but it's interesting to hear people talk about it (and pull reasons out of thin air to try to explain it).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dbCooperAir » Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:03 am

Ok, made me look, down another 1/2% so far today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby technovelist » Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:38 am

DonCamillo wrote::greedy I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?


But then won't you get absolutely hammered by much higher RMDs when you do finally retire? :confused
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dbCooperAir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:18 pm

This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:)

S%P down about 1.6% thus far today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Munir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:29 pm

dbCooperAir wrote:This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:)

S%P down about 1.6% thus far today.


How much has the S & P fallen since last Monday morning in % and true numbers?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dbCooperAir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:40 pm

Munir wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:)

S%P down about 1.6% thus far today.


How much has the S & P fallen since last Monday morning in % and true numbers?


No clue, my goal was to just keep this thread on the fist page so another one does not get started, I see I'm late to the party and a 300 point thread was started, just trying to do my part :wink:

EDIT: Ok, made me look, I used VOO just because I know that ticker. About $180 last Monday AM to $170 today, around 5% drop. Yep its falling.
Last edited by dbCooperAir on Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby greg24 » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:41 pm

Can you translate the decline into points? I only follow points.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dbCooperAir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:44 pm

greg24 wrote:Can you translate the decline into points? I only follow points.


I never understood the whole point deal, I don't track it enough to know what a 300 point decline is, I can understand what 2% drop is however.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby YDNAL » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:45 pm

Munir wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:)

S%P down about 1.6% thus far today.

How much has the S & P fallen since last Monday morning in % and true numbers?

S&P 500 closed Friday, 10/3/2014 at 1,968 (last Monday morning opening) and closed today at 1,875... a drop of -4.7% (and 93 points for those who care).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Sidney » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:48 pm

dbCooperAir wrote:I never understood the whole point deal, I don't track it enough to know what a 300 point decline is, I can understand what 2% drop is however.

Right, points are meaningless. Doesn't relate to scale and they also keep changing the divisor so I'm not sure they are comparable year to year. I don't even look at the Dow any way.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby greg24 » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:50 pm

I was being facetious about points, as they are meaningless, yet the mainsteam media loves them. Its a big pet peeve of mine.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Munir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:53 pm

YDNAL wrote:
Munir wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:)

S%P down about 1.6% thus far today.

How much has the S & P fallen since last Monday morning in % and true numbers?

S&P 500 closed Friday, 10/3/2014 at 1,968 (last Monday morning opening) and closed today at 1,875... a drop of -4.7% (and 93 points for those who care).


Thanks, Landy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ofcmetz » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:55 pm

Sidney wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:I never understood the whole point deal, I don't track it enough to know what a 300 point decline is, I can understand what 2% drop is however.

Right, points are meaningless. Doesn't relate to scale and they also keep changing the divisor so I'm not sure they are comparable year to year. I don't even look at the Dow any way.



That's why I like my iPhone app. I can set it on percentages. Points are for the sensationalism of the news. I'm not sure what it means, but for the last week most of the big drops come in the last hour it seems. Hang in their guys and stop looking if it is hurting.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dbCooperAir » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:56 pm

greg24 wrote:I was being facetious about points, as they are meaningless, yet the mainsteam media loves them. Its a big pet peeve of mine.



I could not agree more.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby dgdevil » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:09 pm

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
dgdevil wrote:@Clearly Irrational. I appreciate your mastery of technicals, and agree with your longer term prognosis. What are the key support, resistance levels + alarm bells for the S+P500 in coming weeks?


The short answer is that the small caps are leading the large caps, which is normal.

The S&P500 broke the bollinger band squeeze on Sept 25th and is now riding the lower bound downwards. RSI is still dropping and MACD divergence widening so the trend probably isn't over yet. Chaikin money flow just turned negative from postivie and volume is rising so that tends to reinforce the idea of further decline. The P&F chart shows a double bottom breakdown with an 1860 target. First support is around 1910 with second support around 1860 or so, the same as the breakdown target.

Over the next few days I expect the market to head down from it's low on Oct 1st.


So 1860 looks to be toast on current momentum? Do you see some range-trading in that area before it drops to the next support level?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Trader Joe » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:15 pm

Expect the stock market drop to continue.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby bogleblitz » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:22 pm

My YTD porfolio is very close to 0% Oct 13th. i made nothing and lost nothing for 10 months.

75% stock/ 25% bond
66% US / 33% International

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby DonCamillo » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:00 pm

technovelist wrote:
DonCamillo wrote:I am turning 70 next year, but it would be nice to work through one more Bear market, maxing out the retirement plans and avoiding required minimum distributions, before retiring at the beginning of a bull market. Maybe retire in about five years?


But then won't you get absolutely hammered by much higher RMDs when you do finally retire? :confused

Yes, I will get hammered, but in a bear market, I can also do Roth conversions on my IRAs to offset some of the increase. Currently trying to move my taxable investments away from dividends and toward capital gains. Looking for ways to keep the tax bracket lower.

Funny how the current market looks cheap, but when stock prices first got to this level last year I though it looked expensive. I have been buying more bonds this year than ever before, all in tax deferred accounts. That is motivated by rebalancing after a huge run-up in stock prices in 2013, not by feeling about whether stocks are cheap or expensive.
Les vieillards aiment à donner de bons préceptes, pour se consoler de n'être plus en état de donner de mauvais exemples. | (François, duc de La Rochefoucauld, maxim 93)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Johm221122 » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:04 pm

bogleblitz wrote:My YTD porfolio is very close to 0% Oct 13th. i made nothing and lost nothing for 10 months.

75% stock/ 25% bond
66% US / 33% International

I turned negative today for year
-.20%


John

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Austintatious » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:24 pm

Trader Joe wrote:Expect the stock market drop to continue.



because?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ged » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:53 pm

Austintatious wrote:
Trader Joe wrote:Expect the stock market drop to continue.



because?


Check his posting history and you will see the reasoning behind his posts.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby protagonist » Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:06 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:Technical analysis seems to be a point of sometimes humorous disagreement between some on this forum. Larry recently posted a good article on academic research looking at technical analysis. Below is a direct quote from his article. It's worthwhile to read the whole thing but the take home message is summed up neatly in one sentence: The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns.

The predictability of technical analysis can change over time. For example, the authors found that price-based technical trading strategies beat the market in their 90-year sample for the period from 1897 to 1986. However, they also found that this predictability disappears completely on a fresh 25-year sample for the period from 1987 to 2012.
Even at a conservative 10 percent level of statistical significance, they found that just 10 of the indicators show an ability to predict returns.
Compounding the problem is that some of the indicators exhibit sign-switching predictability in a subsample test.
Once they accounted for risk and transaction costs, the authors discovered none of the technical trading strategies beat their naive buy-and-hold strategy in either Sharpe ratio or risk-adjusted alpha.
The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns. They write: “This conclusion consistently holds even if we allow predictability to be state dependent on business cycles or sentiment regimes.”

One problem with technical market indicators is there is no risk story to explain why they should work. If ever they did work, it would be a result of behavioral errors among investors.

Because that’s the case, we shouldn’t be surprised if—once research is published showing a market indicator works—the signal’s value rapidly deteriorates and eventually disappears. We can see this occurring in the above example, where a strategy worked for 100 years until the publication of that finding, when it then stopped working.

These findings confirm the wisdom of the following comments on the value of technical market indicators.

Burton Malkiel, author of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” writes: “Technical analysis is anathema to the academic world. We love to pick on it. Our bullying tactics are prompted by two considerations: The method is patently false; and it’s easy to pick on. And while it may seem a bit unfair to pick on such a sorry target, just remember: it’s your money we are trying to save.”

Martin Fridson, who currently serves on the editorial boards of Financial Analysts Journal, CFA Digest and the Journal of Investment Management, had this to say about technical analysis: “The only thing we know for certain about technical analysis is that it’s possible to make a living publishing a newsletter on the subject.”



Garland Whizzer


This does not prove much about technical analysis.

What it does reinforce is what should be statistically obvious.....you can't reliably predict anything 25 years into the future based on a paltry 100 years of data and no firm, underlying, testable hypotheses. No matter what you are trying to predict. Especially anything as complex as financial markets.

Nonetheless, that is what financial "experts" try to do, over and over and over again. And people never stop listening.

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ginmqi
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ginmqi » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:54 am

As a young investor in Year #2 of my investment career this is absolutely wonderful news. I have been very tired of the bull market already.

Now this is a cognitive dissonance because I am actively trying to fight the part of my brain that is screaming at the "free fall" in the past week. But after reading Zweig, Bernstein and many others I have come to the conclusion that my only rational response to this as a young investor is absolutely rejoice.

I have just increased my Roth 403(b) contribution amount through my employer and will also need to write another check to Vanguard towards my Roth IRA....but I'm hoping this bear market will truly come to town and finally give us young investors some cheap stocks for sale!

(btw I started my investing Career in July 2013, which is quite bad timing if this is truly the beginning of a bear but I am still quite happy if this is truly the case)

I do not wish harm or loss of home/job on ANYONE. But as a young investor, I am finally happy to see prices come down so I can buy up more shares. :sharebeer

axxs
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:24 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby axxs » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:37 am

me too,im absolutely excited,im 40% in stocks and 60% in cash/bonds and i absolutely cant wait for the bottom to fall out of the market.i can feel it,the market is going into withdrawal and convulsions from the fed stimulus.will the us economy make it or die?will it go to the brink of death and back?

can somebody make a projection of what the s&p valuation should be if it had grown at a steady rate of 8 or 9% a year since 1995 instead of the roller coaster ride it has been?of course lets not forget the shenenigans america's been thru the last 15 years,one stock market bubble,one housing bubble,a very expensive war and rising china....i think america's growth should actually be at 3 to 4% a year instead.

ginmqi wrote:As a young investor in Year #2 of my investment career this is absolutely wonderful news. I have been very tired of the bull market already.

Now this is a cognitive dissonance because I am actively trying to fight the part of my brain that is screaming at the "free fall" in the past week. But after reading Zweig, Bernstein and many others I have come to the conclusion that my only rational response to this as a young investor is absolutely rejoice.

I have just increased my Roth 403(b) contribution amount through my employer and will also need to write another check to Vanguard towards my Roth IRA....but I'm hoping this bear market will truly come to town and finally give us young investors some cheap stocks for sale!

(btw I started my investing Career in July 2013, which is quite bad timing if this is truly the beginning of a bear but I am still quite happy if this is truly the case)

I do not wish harm or loss of home/job on ANYONE. But as a young investor, I am finally happy to see prices come down so I can buy up more shares. :sharebeer

Longtimelurker
Posts: 471
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Longtimelurker » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:54 am

I predict the market will go down more before it goes up, unless it goes up more before it goes down. You all have been warned. Maybe I should start a news letter?
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.

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riptide
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby riptide » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:09 am

I lost $10,000 in the last 3 weeks! I am trying to just stay the course!! :shock:
Brokerage account 65/35 | VG total Market 35% | VG total Intl 12% | VG small cap value 12% | VG Reit index 6% | VG Total Bond 35% | TSP Account 75/25 | C Fund 45%, S 15%, I 15%, G 25% | EE Bonds = Emergency Fund

beammeupscotty
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby beammeupscotty » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:22 am

axxs wrote:can somebody make a projection of what the s&p valuation should be if it had grown at a steady rate of 8 or 9% a year since 1995 instead of the roller coaster ride it has been?of course lets not forget the shenenigans america's been thru the last 15 years,one stock market bubble,one housing bubble,a very expensive war and rising china....i think america's growth should actually be at 3 to 4% a year instead.

Well, the S&P 500 actually did have a CAGR of 9% since 1995.

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Ignatious P. Daily
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ignatious P. Daily » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:25 am

riptide wrote:I lost $10,000 in the last 3 weeks! I am trying to just stay the course!! :shock:


Down $35k. Been contributing 100% of my income contributions to equities to stay balanced. During the bull run I was contributing 100% to bonds to stay balanced. Seems to me the system is working as intended. Try to remember that you OWN BUSINESSES. Way too many people treat equity ownership like trading baseball cards. I interact with 100's of products per day that are made, serviced, and delivered by companies that I own.

A question to ponder... If you ran a painting business, would you suddenly want to sell it because someone walked into your office and offered to buy your business for less than an offer you received 6-months ago?!?! I don't know any rational person who would. So, explain to me why it should be different with equities?!

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Regal 56
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Regal 56 » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:46 am

bogleblitz wrote:My YTD porfolio is very close to 0% Oct 13th. I made nothing and lost nothing for 10 months.

I’m a bit below zero for the year. But it’s not yet the lowest point for 2014. On the 3rd of February I was down 4.44% YTD. At the rate we’re going now, I’ll surpass that nadir by the end of the week. I was hoping the big downturn would wait until after early January, when I planned to put all my new 2015 contributions into a bond index fund. Obviously Mr. Market knows this, and decided to get his licks in now when it hurts me more. By the way, if this downturn is hurting others besides me, please accept my sincere apology. You’re not the target of Mr. Market’s ire. It’s me he’s after. Everyone else is collateral damage.

avalpert
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby avalpert » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:53 am

Ignatious P. Daily wrote:
riptide wrote:I lost $10,000 in the last 3 weeks! I am trying to just stay the course!! :shock:


Down $35k. Been contributing 100% of my income contributions to equities to stay balanced. During the bull run I was contributing 100% to bonds to stay balanced. Seems to me the system is working as intended. Try to remember that you OWN BUSINESSES. Way too many people treat equity ownership like trading baseball cards. I interact with 100's of products per day that are made, serviced, and delivered by companies that I own.

A question to ponder... If you ran a painting business, would you suddenly want to sell it because someone walked into your office and offered to buy your business for less than an offer you received 6-months ago?!?! I don't know any rational person who would. So, explain to me why it should be different with equities?!

Really? You don't know any rational person that could have experienced a change in business conditions that make their business worth less than six months earlier and make the price at which they would sell less?

If that is truly the case than I suspect you don't know any rational people.

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kenyan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby kenyan » Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:26 am

Still up 3-4% on the year as of yesterday, not counting contributions. A healthy portion of bonds and REITs has helped in that regard, while my International and Small-Value slices have dragged me down.
Retirement investing is a marathon.


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