U.S. stocks in freefall

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macchiato
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby macchiato » Wed May 17, 2017 8:15 pm

I was so hoping to see this thread when I returned today. I was not disappointed. :sharebeer

MrNewEngland
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby MrNewEngland » Wed May 17, 2017 9:51 pm

VTI, VOO, & VBK were all down more than 1% today. I bought more of all three.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Phineas Gage » Wed May 17, 2017 10:17 pm

bostondan wrote:I've taught my wife to be a good Boglehead who stays the course and doesn't think about market turbulence. I told her that we lost about $60k today with the market decline. She said, "Good, that means we have a lot of money."


Good way to think about it. Sounds like she's a smart lady. My wife basically told me the same thing today when I told her about our downswing on the day.

kellykline
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby kellykline » Wed May 17, 2017 10:22 pm

I'm posting to warn people about ETNs like XIV and SVXY. Many articles out there peddling these exotic instruments, but you're taking a "huge" risk buying these stocks since a 1-2% drop in the VOO (like what happened today) could result in a 20% or more loss.

Also, and sadly I've experienced this myself, brokerages trade against your position when you buy XIV.

Note to self - never ever play these instruments.
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ofcmetz
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ofcmetz » Wed May 17, 2017 10:23 pm

I just got through working 22 days straight at the PD. It's nice to get on the bogleheads.org and see this old friend of a thread.

I read in the WSJ a few days ago that $10,000 of Amazon.com purchased on the day of the IPO 20 years ago this week is now worth 4.9 million. The article then says you'd have to have bought it and never looked at it to have held it that long through all the ups and downs. I'm trying to treat my equity investments the same way. There's no way to avoid knowing it was a down day, but I don't have to look at the dollar value right now do I.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

jadedfalcons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby jadedfalcons » Wed May 17, 2017 10:29 pm

It could always be worse. Warren Buffett lost everything today according to this article.

http://www.theonion.com/article/kicking ... rs-p-56037

kellykline
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby kellykline » Wed May 17, 2017 10:43 pm

jadedfalcons wrote:It could always be worse. Warren Buffett lost everything today according to this article.

http://www.theonion.com/article/kicking ... rs-p-56037


LOL!

Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Independent George » Wed May 17, 2017 11:45 pm

During the great crash, my biggest worry wasn't my stock portfolio (which, at its nadir, was down about 45%). It was my job (and my income, which also ended up taking a hit) that worried me.

A 2% dip in an account I won't touch for another 30 years is nothing.

Longtermgrowth
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Longtermgrowth » Thu May 18, 2017 12:54 am

Looking at the gains since November 2016, today's decline doesn't seem like much. I suppose volatility being so low lately makes this decline more of a talking point. If the selloff continues at around the same rate through next week, then we really have something to talk about. :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Vanguard Fan 1367 » Thu May 18, 2017 3:29 am

Longtermgrowth wrote:Looking at the gains since November 2016, today's decline doesn't seem like much. I suppose volatility being so low lately makes this decline more of a talking point. If the selloff continues at around the same rate through next week, then we really have something to talk about. :beer


Yes if stocks go on that great of a late spring sale it might be a good time to back up the truck and buy some more.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Vanguard Fan 1367 » Thu May 18, 2017 3:32 am

Phineas Gage wrote:
bostondan wrote:I've taught my wife to be a good Boglehead who stays the course and doesn't think about market turbulence. I told her that we lost about $60k today with the market decline. She said, "Good, that means we have a lot of money."


Good way to think about it. Sounds like she's a smart lady. My wife basically told me the same thing today when I told her about our downswing on the day.



My wife is a great Boglehead too. She doesn't get excited at all when the market has a dip. Quite a contrast to a CNN host who likes to say "sell, sell, sell," on his show.

selftalk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby selftalk » Thu May 18, 2017 5:21 am

You`ll NEVER KNOW at the time if "the dip" is the beginning of a real bear market. Just buy if you want and don`t look back. Afterwards you can look at the long term charts of the DOW and S&P 500 and realize that you are investing in the creations of mankind that make life easier in our society to exist in. It`s funny that dip as it seems like a game of musical chairs.

rhornback
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I am a buyer at 10% decline

Postby rhornback » Thu May 18, 2017 6:45 am

Yesterday the market (I look at the S&P 500) was down I believe around 1.8%.

I have some dry power and a 10 year time horizon. At 10% I am a buyer and every additional 5% down from there.

Here is hoping for an exciting week!

:beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby rhornback » Thu May 18, 2017 6:49 am

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
Phineas Gage wrote:
bostondan wrote:I've taught my wife to be a good Boglehead who stays the course and doesn't think about market turbulence. I told her that we lost about $60k today with the market decline. She said, "Good, that means we have a lot of money."


Good way to think about it. Sounds like she's a smart lady. My wife basically told me the same thing today when I told her about our downswing on the day.



My wife is a great Boglehead too. She doesn't get excited at all when the market has a dip. Quite a contrast to a CNN host who likes to say "sell, sell, sell," on his show.


I was reading the Warren Buffet eats at McDonalds every morning. He orders the more expensive breakfast sandwich if the market goes up and the cheaper one if the market goes down.

I have a 10 year horizon so I really don't care what the market does short term. But still, will it be a big mac or a hamburger day?

rhornback
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby rhornback » Thu May 18, 2017 6:52 am

Tamalak wrote:I feel like, as with forest fires, it's healthy for stocks to have 10% dips on a regular basis to clear out the 'weak money'


+1 I am going to try to remember this.

WolfgangPauli
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby WolfgangPauli » Thu May 18, 2017 6:54 am

It all seems very irrational so I am "staying the course".
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby MotoTrojan » Thu May 18, 2017 7:38 am

rhornback wrote:But still, will it be a big mac or a hamburger day?


I enjoyed that part of the HBO documentary "honey I'll take $3.17 today"... But I must say, if you haven't tried a McDouble w/ Macsauce yet, you haven't lived! All the flavor (and more) of a Big Mac, for less than 1/3 the price 8-) .

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ray333 » Thu May 18, 2017 7:45 am

All I did was buy more shares and move more into my settlement fund

Go ahead, keep dropping please.

* for future reference, as long as a trade is submitted before closing bell, does it matter if you use a linked bank account or settlement fund? I find moving money to that fund forces me to invest at least monthly, but you'd get the same share price if you bought shares with a linked bank as you would the settlement fund right? Just wondering because I don't want to move too much out of my Ally currently, but another dip/correction and I'd be willing to dump another lump sum
Last edited by ray333 on Thu May 18, 2017 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby lostdog » Thu May 18, 2017 7:50 am

I was doing chores and riding my bike yesterday and didn't know until I saw this thread. Staying the course.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/meditation-modern-life/201507/henry-david-thoreau-simplify-simplify

tuningfork
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby tuningfork » Thu May 18, 2017 8:04 am

I'm staying the course, of course, of course,
And no one can talk me away from the course
That is, of course, unless the course
defies the Bogle heads.

asif408
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby asif408 » Thu May 18, 2017 9:14 am

US stocks aren't in freefall today, but emerging markets are, particularly Brazil. It's down 16% right now. :shock:

Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Doom&Gloom » Thu May 18, 2017 9:41 am

tuningfork wrote:I'm staying the course, of course, of course,
And no one can talk me away from the course
That is, of course, unless the course
defies the Bogle heads.


Well done, Wilburrrrr!
:happy

likegarden
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby likegarden » Thu May 18, 2017 9:54 am

Now we do not know what the final outcome of the news will be, that is creating another financial down or an up. I stay the course.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nedsaid » Thu May 18, 2017 1:18 pm

Wow. This thread works like a charm. Dow up 110, S&P 500 up 13, and NASDAQ up 48.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby rebellovw » Thu May 18, 2017 1:31 pm

My auto buy bimonthly triggered yesterday and I saved over a buck on FSTVX. You gotta love that.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby willthrill81 » Thu May 18, 2017 1:33 pm

Don't you just love the way that the media calls stocks "battered" after a 2% decline? :oops:

It's no wonder that laypeople think that buying stocks is equivalent to playing blackjack.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Doom&Gloom » Thu May 18, 2017 1:39 pm

willthrill81 wrote:Don't you just love the way that the media calls stocks "battered" after a 2% decline? :oops:

It's no wonder that laypeople think that buying stocks is equivalent to playing blackjack.


Blackjack has less variance 8-)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby willthrill81 » Thu May 18, 2017 1:50 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
willthrill81 wrote:Don't you just love the way that the media calls stocks "battered" after a 2% decline? :oops:

It's no wonder that laypeople think that buying stocks is equivalent to playing blackjack.


Blackjack has less variance 8-)


Along with a negative expected return. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Doom&Gloom » Thu May 18, 2017 1:56 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:
willthrill81 wrote:Don't you just love the way that the media calls stocks "battered" after a 2% decline? :oops:

It's no wonder that laypeople think that buying stocks is equivalent to playing blackjack.


Blackjack has less variance 8-)


Along with a negative expected return. :wink:


Not necessarily :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Vanguard Fan 1367 » Thu May 18, 2017 2:39 pm

willthrill81 wrote:Don't you just love the way that the media calls stocks "battered" after a 2% decline? :oops:

It's no wonder that laypeople think that buying stocks is equivalent to playing blackjack.


And as an impressionable young man I can go to lectures saying that if you have more than x dollars you probably should get professional advice. Isn't Jack Bogle's approach refreshing.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby clip651 » Thu May 18, 2017 2:40 pm

ray333 wrote:All I did was buy more shares and move more into my settlement fund

Go ahead, keep dropping please.

* for future reference, as long as a trade is submitted before closing bell, does it matter if you use a linked bank account or settlement fund? I find moving money to that fund forces me to invest at least monthly, but you'd get the same share price if you bought shares with a linked bank as you would the settlement fund right? Just wondering because I don't want to move too much out of my Ally currently, but another dip/correction and I'd be willing to dump another lump sum


If you are talking about buying mutual funds at Vanguard, yes you get the same price (end of day NAV) for the fund that day as long as your trade is in before closing bell. It doesn't matter whether the money comes from a linked account or your settlement fund. It also should work if you are exchanging from one fund to another (e.g. bond to stock or vice versa) before the closing bell, so long as both are Vanguard funds within the same account.

If you are asking about ETFs, the prices vary all day, and I don't know how that works with linked bank accounts (I don't have any ETFs).

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Uncle Pennybags » Thu May 18, 2017 3:49 pm

That was a rough one but I rode it out and didn't sell. :mrgreen:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Steve723 » Thu May 18, 2017 4:06 pm

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
Phineas Gage wrote:
bostondan wrote:I've taught my wife to be a good Boglehead who stays the course and doesn't think about market turbulence. I told her that we lost about $60k today with the market decline. She said, "Good, that means we have a lot of money."


Good way to think about it. Sounds like she's a smart lady. My wife basically told me the same thing today when I told her about our downswing on the day.



My wife is a great Boglehead too. She doesn't get excited at all when the market has a dip. Quite a contrast to a CNN host who likes to say "sell, sell, sell," on his show.


My wife didn't even know the market went down yesterday until I told her today at breakfast. She was unphased - it just isn't something she cares much about. It helps as a Boglehead when you have a significant other that doesn't panic!

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Leif
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Leif » Thu May 18, 2017 4:59 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:That was a rough one but I rode it out and didn't sell. :mrgreen:

Hold on to your hat, uncle, more may be on the way!
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby thangngo » Thu May 18, 2017 5:29 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:That was a rough one but I rode it out and didn't sell. :mrgreen:


:sharebeer

At which point would you sell?

Artisan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Artisan » Thu May 18, 2017 6:15 pm

a 1.5% decline is a freefall? LOL..

Transferred funds to Vanguard today.

Purchasing more VTSAX and VTIAX tomorrow.

Thanks Jack Bogle.

sco
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby sco » Fri May 19, 2017 12:12 am

Artisan wrote:a 1.5% decline is a freefall? LOL..

Transferred funds to Vanguard today.

Purchasing more VTSAX and VTIAX tomorrow.

Thanks Jack Bogle.



Seriously, 1-2% is an event???

Durzo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Durzo » Fri May 19, 2017 12:30 am

sco wrote:
Artisan wrote:a 1.5% decline is a freefall? LOL..

Transferred funds to Vanguard today.

Purchasing more VTSAX and VTIAX tomorrow.

Thanks Jack Bogle.



Seriously, 1-2% is an event???


I think so. It's a all relative to what you consider common I suppose. I have a 45 year horizon until I start withdrawing, but I still think a 1.5-2.0% in one day is significant. If it's the biggest drop since the election that's 6 months. Daylight savings time is 6 months, some people visit their family every 6 months, for kids summer vacation and Christmas vacation are 6 months apart. For people that are interested in the everyday noise of the market the biggest one day drop in 6 months is a significant event. It may not matter to most folks here but some of use like the noise.

Jcraz13
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Jcraz13 » Fri May 19, 2017 12:41 am

Understand , yes it dropped the most in six months . What it took me a long time to figure out is over two or theee decades the market could go up or down one percent a day or five percent a week or even ten percent in one day , but that is not as important as the time in the market over those same days .

As Ben Graham and Warren Buffet note , short term the market is a voting machine . Long term it is a weighing machine .

Once you can live by this concept , you'll stay the course . If you can't , you shouldn't be Invested in the stock market .

Artisan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Artisan » Fri May 19, 2017 6:20 am

Durzo wrote:
sco wrote:
Artisan wrote:a 1.5% decline is a freefall? LOL..

Transferred funds to Vanguard today.

Purchasing more VTSAX and VTIAX tomorrow.

Thanks Jack Bogle.



Seriously, 1-2% is an event???


I think so. It's a all relative to what you consider common I suppose. I have a 45 year horizon until I start withdrawing, but I still think a 1.5-2.0% in one day is significant. If it's the biggest drop since the election that's 6 months. Daylight savings time is 6 months, some people visit their family every 6 months, for kids summer vacation and Christmas vacation are 6 months apart. For people that are interested in the everyday noise of the market the biggest one day drop in 6 months is a significant event. It may not matter to most folks here but some of use like the noise.


The fact that it dropped "so much" makes it a non event to me.

It is more a media moment then anything else.

Imagine if we all ignored the noise, half of the people on CNBC would be unemployed. Maybe more then half :)

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Bacchus01 » Fri May 19, 2017 6:59 am

MrNewEngland wrote:VTI, VOO, & VBK were all down more than 1% today. I bought more of all three.


My 401k hit my account that day. All is well

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby livesoft » Fri May 19, 2017 7:17 am

Bacchus01 wrote:My 401k hit my account that day. All is well

My spouse's company decided to contribute the 2016 profit-sharing money to the 401(k) plan the day before the drop, so a big chunk of money lost ~2% just like that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby MoonOrb » Fri May 19, 2017 8:46 am

I get a kick out of the realization that if it weren't for the existence of this thread, I'd likely have no idea that the markets had a pretty big down day. Over the last four months I've cut down my news media consumption by about 95% or more. I'm more likely to check financial news than anything else and I do that rarely, too.

selftalk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby selftalk » Fri May 19, 2017 9:51 am

MoonOrb, I congratulate you. You`re doing a smart thing.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby RRAAYY3 » Fri May 19, 2017 11:07 am

unfortunately my girlfriend is extremely interested in politics/news and theres a podcast of some sort playing 24/7 it seems like ... it does help me "buy the dips" like Wednesday, but I've tuned out as much as possible.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nedsaid » Fri May 19, 2017 11:41 am

Hmmm. Stocks up again today. Let's keep this thread going.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby TheTimeLord » Fri May 19, 2017 11:48 am

nedsaid wrote:Hmmm. Stocks up again today. Let's keep this thread going.


I predict someday, probably with the next decade, this thread title will be appropriate.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nedsaid » Fri May 19, 2017 12:02 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
nedsaid wrote:Hmmm. Stocks up again today. Let's keep this thread going.


I predict someday, probably with the next decade, this thread title will be appropriate.


I have joked that this thread is a great contrary indicator, the market seems to rally when this thread pops up. It is worked pretty well, except the market did go into correction territory, we had an "almost" bear market from about August 2015 through February 2016. As I recall, the market went down to almost exactly 20% from the peaks. Yes, we will experience another bear market someday.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby TheTimeLord » Fri May 19, 2017 12:06 pm

nedsaid wrote:
TheTimeLord wrote:
nedsaid wrote:Hmmm. Stocks up again today. Let's keep this thread going.


I predict someday, probably with the next decade, this thread title will be appropriate.


I have joked that this thread is a great contrary indicator, the market seems to rally when this thread pops up. It is worked pretty well, except the market did go into correction territory, we had an "almost" bear market from about August 2015 through February 2016. As I recall, the market went down to almost exactly 20% from the peaks. Yes, we will experience another bear market someday.


Having lived through Black Monday early in my investing life has probably given me a different definition of freefall than the one commonly used.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Fallible » Fri May 19, 2017 1:29 pm

It's not this drop, or its size, or how it's reported (yawn). It's the reasons for it.
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