U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
lostdog
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:44 am

Not much movement.
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

emoore
Posts: 271
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2013 8:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by emoore » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:51 am

livesoft wrote:More importantly, the Cubs won the World Series.


+108

cpw84
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cpw84 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:52 am

I would like to thank the Brexit blip for preparing me for this moment.

lostdog
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:58 am

cpw84 wrote:I would like to thank the Brexit blip for preparing me for this moment.


+1
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

jrbdmb
Posts: 185
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jrbdmb » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:02 am

Bongleur wrote:What this country needs is a good 5% Govt Bond. I could live on 5% Govt Bonds.


Unless the 5% Govt Bonds comes with 10% inflation.

User avatar
EternalOptimist
Posts: 829
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:21 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by EternalOptimist » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:01 am

How is thread still open....it is not actionable and has become political.
"When nothing goes right....go left"

Miakis
Posts: 280
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 6:40 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Miakis » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:03 am

I love this thread. Every time my husband is worried about the stock market, I say, "Let's go see if the Bogleheads have bumped the Freefall thread." And there it is. Calms him down every time.

flyersrule
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:25 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyersrule » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:08 am

Miakis wrote:I love this thread. Every time my husband is worried about the stock market, I say, "Let's go see if the Bogleheads have bumped the Freefall thread." And there it is. Calms him down every time.


I say the same thing to my wife. So funny.

Minot
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Minot » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:19 am

What freefall?

User avatar
jhfenton
Posts: 1931
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:17 am
Location: Ohio

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jhfenton » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:28 am

Minot wrote:What freefall?

Yep. The international 50% of our portfolio is down based on last night's drop, but the broad U.S. market is up 0.4% and small-cap value VBR (our largest holding is the Admiral Shares version VSIAX) is up 1.37%. Shocking after watching the futures fall >5% last night and hit limit down.

jjface
Posts: 2451
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jjface » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:30 am

EternalOptimist wrote:How is thread still open....it is not actionable and has become political.


It is a reminder to stay the course and ignore the noise.

It prompts tax loss harvesring opportunities

It discusses the effect on the stock market rather than politics

etc

Engineer250
Posts: 785
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:43 am

Miakis wrote:I love this thread. Every time my husband is worried about the stock market, I say, "Let's go see if the Bogleheads have bumped the Freefall thread." And there it is. Calms him down every time.


I agree this thread makes me calm. It makes me calm when things are "in freefall" and calm when everyone is panicked about how "overpriced" the stock market is. I need this thread.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

cpw84
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cpw84 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:46 am

I have seen friends post on social media about cashing out their 401(k)s, so I put a little PSA out there reminding people not to panic.

Then this young guy I know asked if it was a good time to buy, so I told him it's always a good time to buy and that time in the market is more important than timing the market. Thank you all for preparing me for such conversations.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1300
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:53 am

jjface wrote:
EternalOptimist wrote:How is thread still open....it is not actionable and has become political.


It is a reminder to stay the course and ignore the noise.

It prompts tax loss harvesring opportunities

It discusses the effect on the stock market rather than politics

etc


I really like this thread. It provides Boglehead social support when the market is volatile or thought to be potentially volatile. I'm guessing a lot of people like it or there wouldn't be 65 pages.

TheCowbell
Posts: 48
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:20 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TheCowbell » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:21 pm

This thread is an emotional necessity for me. I read through it this morning and saw the sky-is-falling posts from 12hrs ago, and the subsequent sky-is-still-there from market open. This thread is the reason why I'm not selling off all equities in my 401k.

lostdog
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:24 pm

flyersrule wrote:
Miakis wrote:I love this thread. Every time my husband is worried about the stock market, I say, "Let's go see if the Bogleheads have bumped the Freefall thread." And there it is. Calms him down every time.


I say the same thing to my wife. So funny.


Yes this thread is priceless. :D
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau | Vanguard Total World Index

dspencer
Posts: 95
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:29 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dspencer » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:37 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
I think Krugman is overreacting, and he will retract that.


It seems you are right on the first part.

Paul Krugman wrote:Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.


:oops: With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that a better answer would have been "almost immediately". I see this as a multi-layered Boglehead moment of triumph. We have a so-called "expert" using emotion, political views, and a short term market change to predict the long (infinite?) term future of the market. How could it go wrong?

Whakamole
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Whakamole » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:40 pm

dspencer wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:
I think Krugman is overreacting, and he will retract that.


It seems you are right on the first part.

Paul Krugman wrote:Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.


:oops: With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that a better answer would have been "almost immediately". I see this as a multi-layered Boglehead moment of triumph. We have a so-called "expert" using emotion, political views, and a short term market change to predict the long (infinite?) term future of the market. How could it go wrong?


As they say, economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions.

User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 27229
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sat Nov 12, 2016 12:33 am

After removing a number of political posts, I locked this thread for a few days to let the political climate cool down.

I'm now reopening it but be aware that any further political posts will result in a warning or suspension and a permanent lock.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2253
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:11 am

Only bonds and foreign stocks in freefall right now. US stocks did great this last week.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

rgs92
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:48 am

Does anyone feel this sudden (unusual?) diversion would call for an unscheduled rebalancing?
(By diversion, I mean a big drop in both the International allocation and Bond allocation, coupled with a rise in US Stocks. This would stand out in a 3-fund portfolio.)
Or would that just be market timing. But this has been so quick, it seems strange, so maybe it makes sense here. Not sure...
Last edited by rgs92 on Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

livesoft
Posts: 55901
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:51 am

I think many folks do not rebalance on a schedule, but check their rebalancing bands. Furthermore, even if folks do not actively rebalance, they may passively rebalance by switching which funds get contributions if still accumulating and which funds get withdrawals if decumulating.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 25855
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:08 am

rgs92 wrote:Does anyone feel this sudden (unusual?) diversion would call for an unscheduled rebalancing?
(By diversion, I mean a big drop in both the International allocation and Bond allocation, coupled with a rise in US Stocks. This would stand out in a 3-fund portfolio.)
Or would that just be market timing. But this has been so quick, it seems strange, so maybe it makes sense here. Not sure...

rgs92:

I personally feel that it is not worthwhile to rebalance unless a desired fund allocation differs 10% or more.

Tax-Loss Harvesting in taxable accounts should usually be done whenever there is a meaningful loss.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

JW-Retired
Posts: 6293
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:18 am

rgs92 wrote:Does anyone feel this sudden (unusual?) diversion would call for an unscheduled rebalancing?
(By diversion, I mean a big drop in both the International allocation and Bond allocation, coupled with a rise in US Stocks. This would stand out in a 3-fund portfolio.)
Or would that just be market timing. But this has been so quick, it seems strange, so maybe it makes sense here. Not sure...

Betcha it won't stand out for my nominal 60/40 AA. It takes what feels like a huge change in something to produce much AA impact. Still, my last checked AA (Sept 30, 35.7% bonds) was nearing a band edge so perhaps I should take a look. :|

I'll get back to you. ............ oops, it won't be soon as my 401k plan site is locked for maintanence for the weekend.:annoyed
JW
Retired at Last

rgs92
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:59 am

Thanks Taylor, that was also my intuition after sleeping on it.
To JW: yes but you don't have international which has been more dramatic (or at least adds to the drama).
But this is just blip in the long run of course.

JW-Retired
Posts: 6293
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:09 am

rgs92 wrote:Thanks Taylor, that was also my intuition after sleeping on it.
To JW: yes but you don't have international which has been more dramatic (or at least adds to the drama).
But this is just blip in the long run of course.

Little or no international bonds, but If you meant international equities of course I have some.
Retired at Last

longinvest
Posts: 2447
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:44 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by longinvest » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:10 am

I don't rebalance to increase returns. Increasing potential returns would be best achieved by increasing my stock allocation. I rebalance to keep my portfolio from drifting away from my chosen asset allocation. As such, I have established a rebalancing schedule independent from market movements and I strictly rebalance according to this schedule, keeping emotions out of my investing.
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VAB/ZRR

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 1578
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:17 am

Step one: rebalance yet again into international
Step two: hold breath
Step three: see how it's going in 20 years
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

User avatar
Leif
Posts: 2143
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif » Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:24 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:I personally feel that it is not worthwhile to rebalance unless a desired fund allocation differs 10% or more.

Absolute or relative of the "desired fund allocation"? If I had 10% allocated to REITS would I rebalance at 0% or 20% (absolute), or relative 9% - 11%?

Taylor Larimore wrote:Tax-Loss Harvesting in taxable accounts should usually be done whenever there is a meaningful loss.

How do you define "meaningful" in this context?
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

Tanelorn
Posts: 1258
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:46 am

columbia wrote:I'm not sure how to ask this without it opening up a political discussion, so please delete as needed:

Were certain protectionist measures to be implemented in the coming years, what would be the expected effect on international stock holdings?

It's way too soon to tell for sure what will actually happen, but the market seems to be pricing some disadvantage to foreign firms especially in emerging markets. In the 3 days since the election, here are how world equity markets reacted:

SPY +1-2% (S&P500)
VEA -1-2% (world developed)
EEM -8% (emerging)

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8258
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:02 am

Tanelorn wrote:
columbia wrote:I'm not sure how to ask this without it opening up a political discussion, so please delete as needed:

Were certain protectionist measures to be implemented in the coming years, what would be the expected effect on international stock holdings?

It's way too soon to tell for sure what will actually happen, but the market seems to be pricing some disadvantage to foreign firms especially in emerging markets. In the 3 days since the election, here are how world equity markets reacted:

SPY +1-2% (S&P500)
VEA -1-2% (world developed)
EEM -8% (emerging)


This appears to be flight to quality when the market is dealing with uncertainty. It was also interesting that bonds fell too. I would not have expected the drop in bonds.
A fool and his money are good for business.

User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 5566
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bertilak » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:07 am

nedsaid wrote:I would not have expected the drop in bonds.

Could it be in anticipation of a change at the Fed? Any change, even anticipated change, brings uncertainty and therefore flight.
Listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. (There! I've said it.)

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8258
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:13 am

bertilak wrote:
nedsaid wrote:I would not have expected the drop in bonds.

Could it be in anticipation of a change at the Fed? Any change, even anticipated change, brings uncertainty and therefore flight.


It could also be in anticipation of a more vigorous economy. Who knows?
A fool and his money are good for business.

Doom&Gloom
Posts: 1357
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:19 am

I had 35% in bonds, which was probably a little light for my circumstances, but I had planned to delay increasing it to 40% on 1-1-18. I had also planned to eliminate one fund from my slice-and-dice portfolio on 1-1-17. I made both moves on Wednesday. I also rebalanced my REIT allocation. Except for possible rebalancing, I'm now done until another planned move on 1-1-18. Call me a wild and crazy trader!

Anyone know when and where the next meeting of Market Timers Anonymous is?

User avatar
bertilak
Posts: 5566
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:23 pm
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bertilak » Sat Nov 12, 2016 12:12 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:Anyone know when and where the next meeting of Market Timers Anonymous is?

Midnight. 666 South Street. Knock three times on the basement door. Tell them Mad Jim sent you. Wear a tie.
Listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. (There! I've said it.)

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 25855
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Tax loss harvesting and rebalancing ?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:21 pm

Leif wrote:
Taylor Larimore wrote:I personally feel that it is not worthwhile to rebalance unless a desired fund allocation differs 10% or more.

Absolute or relative of the "desired fund allocation"? If I had 10% allocated to REITS would I rebalance at 0% or 20% (absolute), or relative 9% - 11%?

My answer: Absolute.
Taylor Larimore wrote:Tax-Loss Harvesting in taxable accounts should usually be done whenever there is a meaningful loss.

How do you define "meaningful" in this context?

My answer: $500-$1,000.

Leif: When to rebalance and when to tax-loss harvest is not set in stone. Some investors don't even bother. Nevertheless, I think it is important to maintain my overall stock/bond ratio within 10% of my target allocation.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Doom&Gloom
Posts: 1357
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:44 pm

bertilak wrote:
Doom&Gloom wrote:Anyone know when and where the next meeting of Market Timers Anonymous is?

Midnight. 666 South Street. Knock three times on the basement door. Tell them Mad Jim sent you. Wear a tie.


:mrgreen:

The tie may be a deal-breaker. Except for funerals, I don't think I've put one on for > 40 years.

:sharebeer

Gary Guss
Posts: 88
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:44 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Gary Guss » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:09 pm

Apparently its possible to fall upwards if there is enough wind !

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2088
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:21 pm

nedsaid wrote:
bertilak wrote:
nedsaid wrote:
I would not have expected the drop in bonds.


Could it be in anticipation of a change at the Fed? Any change, even anticipated change, brings uncertainty and therefore flight.


It could also be in anticipation of a more vigorous economy. Who knows?


Besides an increase in real rates, inflation expectations also have increased, the impact of which can be seen in falling prices/rising rates especially on the long part of the curve. Funds like Vanguard Extended Duration clobbered this week. IMO, the reason is neither uncertainty nor merely expectations of a more vigorous economy, but rather _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. I'll leave it to your imagination to fill in the blanks.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

JW-Retired
Posts: 6293
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:37 am

JW-Retired wrote:
rgs92 wrote:Does anyone feel this sudden (unusual?) diversion would call for an unscheduled rebalancing?
(By diversion, I mean a big drop in both the International allocation and Bond allocation, coupled with a rise in US Stocks. This would stand out in a 3-fund portfolio.)
Or would that just be market timing. But this has been so quick, it seems strange, so maybe it makes sense here. Not sure...

Betcha it won't stand out for my nominal 60/40 AA. It takes what feels like a huge change in something to produce much AA impact. Still, my last checked AA (Sept 30, 35.7% bonds) was nearing a band edge so perhaps I should take a look. :|

I'll get back to you. ............ oops, it won't be soon as my 401k plan site is locked for maintenance for the weekend.:annoyed
JW

added Monday....... OK, got to my account and my overall bond allocation has dropped from 35.7% on Sept 30 to 35.5% on Nov 13. Ultra ho-hum.
Admittedly, I have little or no international bonds. My percentage of foreign stocks dropped from 20.6% to 20.2%. Ho-hum again.

But thanks for enticing me to look!... I noticed a small but worthwhile tax loss harvesting opportunity. :)
JW
Retired at Last

Tamalak
Posts: 386
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Tamalak » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:01 pm

Thanks for unlocking this! Best thread in the forums :sharebeer

My 50% in international is hurting me right now, but the lower it goes, the crappier it'll have to do in the future to underperform.. there's a bottom somewhere! 8-)

OakPhilliesFan
Posts: 232
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:50 pm
Location: Oakland, CA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by OakPhilliesFan » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:06 pm

Tamalak wrote:Thanks for unlocking this! Best thread in the forums :sharebeer


Yeah, it's really nice to have a long record of people's responses to potentially significant events, including the current one. I've experienced much bigger stock market events since I started investing, though not yet anything like 2008. But this is by far the biggest political shock since I started. Somehow that made a bigger impression on me, even though logically it shouldn't have. I won't need the money for 20-30 years anyway. Why was I worried? Human nature, I guess.

jpelder
Posts: 546
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:56 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jpelder » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:28 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:Step one: rebalance yet again into international
Step two: hold breath
Step three: see how it's going in 20 years


Protip: don't hold your breath for 20 years, you will die

This thread is fun and informative. Don't ruin it with political posts!

livesoft
Posts: 55901
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:30 pm

How about this for a future market timing signal: When DGS drops less in one day than BND does, then it is time to buy more foreign equities.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 3294
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:33 pm

livesoft wrote:How about this for a future market timing signal: When DGS drops less in one day than BND does, then it is time to buy more foreign equities.


Sure, but that doesn't help with the topic of "U.S. stocks in freefall"

We need a long thread on "International stocks going nowhere -- fast!"
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

livesoft
Posts: 55901
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:36 pm

triceratop wrote:Sure, but that doesn't help with the topic of "U.S. stocks in freefall"

We need a long thread on "International stocks going nowhere -- fast!"

True dat. IJS (US small-cap value) is now up about 12% this month alone. That's not a freefall at all.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

scone
Posts: 1384
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:09 pm

Alternatively, you can think of this as "bond yields are off the lows." :beer <- glass half full
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2088
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by saltycaper » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:28 pm

triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:How about this for a future market timing signal: When DGS drops less in one day than BND does, then it is time to buy more foreign equities.


Sure, but that doesn't help with the topic of "U.S. stocks in freefall"

We need a long thread on "International stocks going nowhere -- fast!"


I tried to use Brexit to initiate such a thread: International stocks in free fall. I guess posters got bored when the luster of Brexit faded into the background for U.S.-based investors. Posters also seem content to start a new "Why int'l?" thread as soon as the last one falls off the homepage.
"I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." --Alan Greenspan

Engineer250
Posts: 785
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:45 pm

bertilak wrote:
nedsaid wrote:I would not have expected the drop in bonds.

Could it be in anticipation of a change at the Fed? Any change, even anticipated change, brings uncertainty and therefore flight.


Some source I listened to said they thought it was because people are expecting lower taxes and large infrastructure bill to result in more US debt. That is to say, these speculators think the market for buyers of bonds will be better. Therefore, they predict better yields in the future as well as want some better yields now. Wanting better yields now meant price drop on existing. That was just one source's interpretation. I am also paraphrasing.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 8258
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Nov 15, 2016 9:23 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
bertilak wrote:
nedsaid wrote:I would not have expected the drop in bonds.

Could it be in anticipation of a change at the Fed? Any change, even anticipated change, brings uncertainty and therefore flight.


Some source I listened to said they thought it was because people are expecting lower taxes and large infrastructure bill to result in more US debt. That is to say, these speculators think the market for buyers of bonds will be better. Therefore, they predict better yields in the future as well as want some better yields now. Wanting better yields now meant price drop on existing. That was just one source's interpretation. I am also paraphrasing.


Maybe there were just more sellers than buyers and the price had to drop to maintain market equilibrium. Who really knows?
A fool and his money are good for business.

Post Reply