U.S. stocks in freefall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 17579
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:08 am

cfs wrote:Bullish on America.

Warrent Buffett is STILL Bullish on America. While others are in panic mode running to the hills and selling, he is busy buying. He was last sighted in one of the isles of the US Market, with his shopping cart, picking the products that are selling at big discount. Are you Bullish on America? - or - Are you betting against America (and against Warren Buffet)? As I have said before, I would not bet a Greek Drachma or a Venezuelan Bolivar against this man.

And now is time for me to close here and find something productive to do, such as taking care of my LUng distance workout.


Browser wrote:If your time horizon is forever - as is Buffett's - you should probably always be buying. But in the real world that the rest of live in, we have spending liabilities that must be met within a much shorter timeframe, so we must pay attention to markets and act accordingly.


Shipmate cfs will live forever.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

lee1026
Posts: 389
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lee1026 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:12 am

The Dow is also a lot older. The DJIA goes back to 1896, and the S&P 500 only goes back to 1957.

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:16 am

flyingaway wrote:I am starting to like this thread.


It's like a fine aged wine.

Its nice to have most of the drop talk in one place!
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12104
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:18 am

dbCooperAir wrote:
flyingaway wrote:I am starting to like this thread.


It's like a fine aged wine.

Its nice to have most of the drop talk in one place!


It is Entertaining :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 1583
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:33 am

Toons wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:
flyingaway wrote:I am starting to like this thread.


It's like a fine aged wine.

Its nice to have most of the drop talk in one place!


It is Entertaining :happy


Best thread on the forum. A potpourri if you will.
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

User avatar
backpacker
Posts: 1620
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by backpacker » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:45 am

JonnyDVM wrote:
Toons wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:
flyingaway wrote:I am starting to like this thread.


It's like a fine aged wine.

Its nice to have most of the drop talk in one place!


It is Entertaining :happy


Best thread on the forum. A potpourri if you will.


Yes. Several pages back, I advocated locking this thread. It really just is the same thing over and over.

"OMG the market is down -1.8%!"
"Ignore the noise."
"OMG the market is down -1.43%!"
"Stay the course."
"OMG the market is down -2.33%!"
"Just rebalanced."
"OMG..."

Now I see that this is exactly why this thread is some awesome. :happy
Last edited by backpacker on Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:45 am

Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

User avatar
backpacker
Posts: 1620
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by backpacker » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:47 am

Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


Ah, an actual prediction! Shall we say six months? I'll add a reminder to my schedule and we can check to see if you were right. :happy

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:51 am

backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


Ah, an actual prediction! Shall we say six months? I'll add a reminder to my schedule and we can check to see if you were right. :happy

I'm happy to put a Starbuck's Tall on the line. Shall we meet there in 6 months. 8-)
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

User avatar
backpacker
Posts: 1620
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by backpacker » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:55 am

Browser wrote:
backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


Ah, an actual prediction! Shall we say six months? I'll add a reminder to my schedule and we can check to see if you were right. :happy

I'm happy to put a Starbuck's Tall on the line. Shall we meet there in 6 months. 8-)


We should also have a numerical prediction to go with it. Shall we say the S&P 500 being -20% down from the high for this year? That would make this an "official" bear market.

Thebigc
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:43 pm

backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:
backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


Ah, an actual prediction! Shall we say six months? I'll add a reminder to my schedule and we can check to see if you were right. :happy

I'm happy to put a Starbuck's Tall on the line. Shall we meet there in 6 months. 8-)


We should also have a numerical prediction to go with it. Shall we say the S&P 500 being -20% down from the high for this year? That would make this an "official" bear market.


Hmmm, I am calling the eventual 14,027 bottom in the Dow. And I will tell you how I got there, I guessed a random number in the bear range from the high. Yeah that seems like a good plan. Lets say about 23 - 24 percent from the high.

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:03 pm

Shall we see check our Crystal Ball Forecast?

S&P is around 1924 today, Boglehead gkaplan has end of year at 1926!
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=154407&hilit=contest
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:12 pm

Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month period. You DCA-ers can thank me later. :beer
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 3456
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: MI CAMINO SINCE 2014

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:27 pm

VictoriaF wrote: . . . Shipmate cfs will live forever . . .

Well, shipmate Victoria, forever is a long time . . . it could be doable . . . but only if I continue to take care of my LUng distance workouts using my favorite three-speed (slow, semi-slow, super-slow). Today, during my LUng distance workout I used the first gear (slow).
~ DONATING MEMBER ~

lee1026
Posts: 389
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lee1026 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:07 pm

Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month period. You DCA-ers can thank me later. :beer

If you are confident, you should go buy options. S&P 500 options with a strike of 1400 for Dec is trading at $14.00. If it falls to 1200, like you predicted, it will make a 10x profit.

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:16 pm

lee1026 wrote:
Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month period. You DCA-ers can thank me later. :beer

If you are confident, you should go buy options. S&P 500 options with a strike of 1400 for Dec is trading at $14.00. If it falls to 1200, like you predicted, it will make a 10x profit.

If I were confident, I'd be betting more than a lousy Starbuck's. :shock:
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

scone
Posts: 1390
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scone » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:36 pm

Why buy today when futures point to another drop tomorrow? (Wash, rinse, repeat.) :twisted:
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

Browser
Posts: 4857
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:41 pm

Going from a bad day to a very bad day. DJIA now down nearly 500 points. 16,000 in jeopardy (I wanted to see if I could spell jeopardy). :(
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

autonomy
Posts: 328
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by autonomy » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:45 pm

autonomy wrote:Given what has happened this week, here's a totally crazy idea - I am starting to question if there is some final manipulation going on before the end-of-the-month contributions go in.


Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Join the crowd, I think the market is selling off to take the money of those who get paid 2x a month - in it goes, out it goes into their pockets. Let's see how it plays out on the 16th of the month. :twisted:


HAI EVERYONE! I am good at predicting the stock market! Who wants to give their investing money to me?

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12104
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:18 pm

Browser wrote:Going from a bad day to a very bad day. DJIA now down nearly 500 points. 16,000 in jeopardy (I wanted to see if I could spell jeopardy). :(



A Point of reference

March 9, 2009: Dow Hits 12-year Low
That night the Dow closed at 6,547.05
, its lowest close in 12 years. The value of all U.S. stocks had dropped from a peak of $22 trillion to $9 trillion, a staggering loss of wealth.
It is time for some of the hiss to be let out of the balloon,,,,,,, :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:49 pm

Toons wrote:It is time for some of the hiss to be let out of the balloon,,,,,,, :sharebeer


Image

:beer
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2259
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:56 pm

rixer wrote:Of course. I just made a sizable purchase yesterday.. :oops:


Me too. My 457B and 403B contributions go in at the end of each month, and everything went in yesterday. :annoyed
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2259
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:58 pm

Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


It might be. It could also be that it is just like 2011 when it was a great time to buy. That's why I'll stick to my plan. Predicting and timing are just to hard to get right.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12104
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:01 pm

dbCooperAir wrote:
Toons wrote:It is time for some of the hiss to be let out of the balloon,,,,,,, :sharebeer


Image

:beer


Hahah!!!
Excellent :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

User avatar
ofcmetz
Posts: 2259
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:09 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:05 pm

Browser wrote:Going from a bad day to a very bad day. DJIA now down nearly 500 points. 16,000 in jeopardy (I wanted to see if I could spell jeopardy). :(


I'll take the Pen is Mightier for 16,000 Trebek.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

User avatar
backpacker
Posts: 1620
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by backpacker » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:09 pm

Browser wrote:Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month period. You DCA-ers can thank me later. :beer


The all-time high of 2,134.72 for the S&P 500 was reached on May 20th of this year. How about we make your prediction an even -50% drop from there? So the prediction is that the S&P 500 will drop below 1067.36 before it returns to above 2,134.72. What do you say? Bet a Starbucks on it? :happy

HurdyGurdy
Posts: 1166
Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 10:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HurdyGurdy » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:32 pm

I confess that I'm a bit hesitant about login to my retirement accounts to rebalance. Should I just put the money in balanced funds, to prevent myself from peeking and worrying?

User avatar
Toons
Posts: 12104
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:48 pm

HurdyGurdy wrote:I confess that I'm a bit hesitant about login to my retirement accounts to rebalance. Should I just put the money in balanced funds, to prevent myself from peeking and worrying?


If Market Noise is steering you to make decisions with your investments absolutely Not. :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

Carpentermaass84
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Carpentermaass84 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:51 pm

A genuine question for those who believe there is nothing to fret about; what potential GOOD news do you see coming out in the next few months that would counteract the collapse of the global commodities market and China's declining importation of said raw materials? I am in a position to gamble given my age and I know I am gambling by staying out of the market altogether and missing any potential upswing (I dropped out at 18,200 and put my funds back in last Tuesday only to pull everything out on Friday). I cannot time the market and I have been extremely lucky so far... I just want to know what I should be looking for in terms of "positive" indicators? I realize I will gain in the long run by staying the course but I don't handle the downs as well as more weathered investors on this forum.

Thank you :beer

Jcraz13
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jcraz13 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:59 pm

Carpentermaass84 wrote:A genuine question for those who believe there is nothing to fret about; what potential GOOD news do you see coming out in the next few months that would counteract the collapse of the global commodities market and China's declining importation of said raw materials? I am in a position to gamble given my age and I know I am gambling by staying out of the market altogether and missing any potential upswing (I dropped out at 18,200 and put my funds back in last Tuesday only to pull everything out on Friday). I cannot time the market and I have been extremely lucky so far... I just want to know what I should be looking for in terms of "positive" indicators? I realize I will gain in the long run by staying the course but I don't handle the downs as well as more weathered investors on this forum.

Thank you :beer



The problem is that NO ONE KNOWS. You may have gotten lucky last week or this week, but tomorrow we could be down another 500 or 1000, or up the same or more.

Warren Buffett has said (repeated ad nauesam on BH forum, I know) , that in the short term the market is a voting machine, but long term a weighing machine.

Invest in good mutual funds, keep allocating and buying even when down (if able) ,and you will be fine.

Sure, you may have some safe investments for a few months or even a year, but WHEN DO YOU GET BACK IN? NO ONE KNOWS! I know people who kept in cash since 2008 and they missed the last six years of upswing. I don't think you want to be that person! Stay the course!

Jeff

bradshaw1965
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bradshaw1965 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:05 pm

Carpentermaass84 wrote:A genuine question for those who believe there is nothing to fret about; what potential GOOD news do you see coming out in the next few months that would counteract the collapse of the global commodities market and China's declining importation of said raw materials? I am in a position to gamble given my age and I know I am gambling by staying out of the market altogether and missing any potential upswing (I dropped out at 18,200 and put my funds back in last Tuesday only to pull everything out on Friday). I cannot time the market and I have been extremely lucky so far... I just want to know what I should be looking for in terms of "positive" indicators? I realize I will gain in the long run by staying the course but I don't handle the downs as well as more weathered investors on this forum.

Thank you :beer


You don't need to know the specific information, only the probability that the market has priced in the likelihood of continued bad information and some bit of good information might cause a turn. You also don't want to make bets on the mood of the market unless you're a trader. Specific bits of macro information are noise to a long term investor.

patrick
Posts: 1473
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:39 am
Location: Mega-City One

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by patrick » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:09 pm

Browser wrote:Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:


I will make no prediction as to what the market will do over the next six months. I am however confident that whatever happens, people will say it was obvious after it happens.

Carpentermaass84
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Carpentermaass84 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:12 pm

Thank you guys - I genuinely appreciate the advice and how involved the community here is in helping those who are new to the markets. I'd hate to be the person who sat out the opportunity to jump in during the 2008 crash. Unless I take action now, I could very well be the person who sat out the rise from 16,000.

User avatar
VictoriaF
Posts: 17579
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:27 am
Location: Black Swan Lake

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:14 pm

Carpentermaass84 wrote:A genuine question for those who believe there is nothing to fret about; what potential GOOD news do you see coming out in the next few months that would counteract the collapse of the global commodities market and China's declining importation of said raw materials? I am in a position to gamble given my age and I know I am gambling by staying out of the market altogether and missing any potential upswing (I dropped out at 18,200 and put my funds back in last Tuesday only to pull everything out on Friday). I cannot time the market and I have been extremely lucky so far... I just want to know what I should be looking for in terms of "positive" indicators? I realize I will gain in the long run by staying the course but I don't handle the downs as well as more weathered investors on this forum.

Thank you :beer


The good news are that the U.S. economy is doing rather well, that the unemployment rate in the U.S. is low, and that there is no other good place to put one's assets. If in September the Fed raises its lending rate by 0.25%, the market may rally due to the end of the suspense. If the Fed does not raise the rate in September, the market may also rally on the assumption that the rate will not be raised any time soon.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

sambb
Posts: 1805
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sambb » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:18 pm

bull markets dont last forever, bear markets are inevitable. We already have had a correction. I wish i hadnt stayed the course and watched in go down 2000 points. But the philosophy here is to stay in during a bear market and rebalance. IF you can predict it, it is better to take it out during bears. I just cant predict it. Maybe there are those that can.

xjz
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by xjz » Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:01 pm

sambb wrote:bull markets dont last forever, bear markets are inevitable. We already have had a correction. I wish i hadnt stayed the course and watched in go down 2000 points. But the philosophy here is to stay in during a bear market and rebalance. IF you can predict it, it is better to take it out during bears. I just cant predict it. Maybe there are those that can.

Do not confuse outcome for strategy. Selling before a bear market is an outcome, not a strategy. Selling when some set of market indicators appear to imply that a bear market may occur in the near future is a strategy (although it is a strategy that is flatly incompatible with Bogleheads investment philosophy, since such a strategy advocates market timing/not staying the course).

Thebigc
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:57 am

So just updating some of my earlier posts, because I don't want to be a homer and claim I did this after the fact.

So I had sold some stocks and purchaased some stocks all are listed with the price again this is just my mad money, still sitting on cash for my funds.

So just bought back into Netflix after selling not long ago. 25 shares at 100.59, I think it may be a little higher or lower but in the 100 and change range. It may go lower so I only picked up 25 shares, heck it may go lower today.

Picked up some wells at 50 and change 25 shares.

Picked up a little more Exxon at 72.71 yesterday. 25 shares

Picked up 25 shares of COP at 47.55 yessterday.

Picked up 25 shares of Disney at 99.95.

Still have some money to play with, but done for the day unless something happens, looking at friday this week, and Tuesday next week. Possible sell on the 8th, I'll have to see, looking to move Apple if it has a rally, not all of it but like 25 - 50% to sell and transfer into funds. If not I will sit on it.

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1836
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:55 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
rixer wrote:Of course. I just made a sizable purchase yesterday.. :oops:

Join the crowd, I think the market is selling off to take the money of those who get paid 2x a month - in it goes, out it goes into their pockets. Let's see how it plays out on the 16th of the month. :twisted:
My "entitlements" go into a checking account then I distribute them at my pleasure. My pleasure dictates I buy stocks; especially REITs now paying over 4%. :greedy

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:03 pm

Thebigc wrote:So just bought back into Netflix after selling not long ago. 25 shares at 100.59, I think it may be a little higher or lower but in the 100 and change range. It may go lower so I only picked up 25 shares, heck it may go lower today.

Picked up some wells at 50 and change 25 shares.

Picked up a little more Exxon at 72.71 yesterday. 25 shares

Picked up 25 shares of COP at 47.55 yessterday.

Picked up 25 shares of Disney at 99.95.


I'm not a single stock guy myself but admit I have been tempted to take a flyer at the wheel.

What was you logic behind Netflix, just curious?
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

MrVargas
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2010 4:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MrVargas » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:19 pm

Carpentermaass84 wrote:A genuine question for those who believe there is nothing to fret about; what potential GOOD news do you see coming out in the next few months that would counteract the collapse of the global commodities market and China's declining importation of said raw materials? I am in a position to gamble given my age and I know I am gambling by staying out of the market altogether and missing any potential upswing (I dropped out at 18,200 and put my funds back in last Tuesday only to pull everything out on Friday). I cannot time the market and I have been extremely lucky so far... I just want to know what I should be looking for in terms of "positive" indicators? I realize I will gain in the long run by staying the course but I don't handle the downs as well as more weathered investors on this forum.

Thank you :beer


If there is potential for good news, smarter people than I have seen it and it has been priced into the market.

If there is no potential for any good news, smarter people than I have seen it and it has been priced into the market.

The only guess I'm making is that the overall wealth of the planet will increase in the long term and by investing in equities I will be positioned to take advantage of that. This is a guess, and I could be wrong, but that is the only prediction that I am capable of making.

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 26243
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

A good prediction

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:44 pm

The only guess I'm making is that the overall wealth of the planet will increase in the long term and by investing in equities I will be positioned to take advantage of that. This is a guess, and I could be wrong, but that is the only prediction that I am capable of making.

Mr. Vargas:

Your modest "only prediction" sounds reasonable to me.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Thebigc
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:47 pm

dbCooperAir wrote:
Thebigc wrote:So just bought back into Netflix after selling not long ago. 25 shares at 100.59, I think it may be a little higher or lower but in the 100 and change range. It may go lower so I only picked up 25 shares, heck it may go lower today.

Picked up some wells at 50 and change 25 shares.

Picked up a little more Exxon at 72.71 yesterday. 25 shares

Picked up 25 shares of COP at 47.55 yessterday.

Picked up 25 shares of Disney at 99.95.


I'm not a single stock guy myself but admit I have been tempted to take a flyer at the wheel.

What was you logic behind Netflix, just curious?


I don't advise stocks for anyone or anything like that or suggest anyone jump into individual stocks. 90 - 95% of my investments are funds. But I actually first started investing with single stocks, nothing like penny stocks or anything like that, no options etc... I pretty much stick to large cap blue chip best of breed stocks and buy them when they are discounted and hold for extendded periods of time, wide moat, and I look for dividends for the most part. On occasion I pick up somthing like CHK or WLL but don't spend a lot on them.

As for Netflix, I have owned Netflix since 2009, and it's hard to explain but like funds or anything else you just get used to how it moves. I have never sold completly out of Netflix, but when I needed some extra cash for a week or so I sold some shares to build up a little powder, did the same with Brk B and some short term bonds. It dropped from like 116 to 100 in that period of time so picked some back up. People pop in and out of Netflix all the time, as a hyper growth stock people treat it like an ATM. So it tends to be volitial and have strong swings. Nothing has really changed to alter the 140 - 160 price target placed on the stock. So at 100 and change, it's not a bad buy but you have to look past the PE Ratio. I am still looking for it to go lower, if it doesn't oh well I am not out anything. I am hoping for around 95 in the near term, then when it gets near to reporting it will probably jump again.

INTC
XOM
BRK B
JPM
AAPL
COP
VZ
DIS
WFC

Then the more volitial and high risk stocks are.
NFLX
WLL
CHK

Really the only thing interesting in my stock portfolio is CHK and WLL, considering Micron but not that interested, maybe Microsoft.

I don't generally try and time the market. I didn't have any oil stocks before and only recently aquired them. XOM is a great company and was at a great discount. Even if the market goes down more it's at such a discount it just doesn't have that far to fall. Picked up COP as a divedend play and CHK and WLL, I am not sure about, possible aquisitions, but also at extreme discounts. The Oil companies at worst are long term aquisitions. I am not worried about Iran if they hit 1 million barrells in the next two years I will be surprised let alone 5 million out of the gate. I wasn't sitting around for years waiting for Oil to drop, it happened and I picked some up. NFLX, I didn't sell out to time the market, I needed cash, was going to be for a car and maybe some new stocks, thought I should sit on it for a bit to see what happens in the market. Market did me a favor so I bought some back. I wasn't predicting it to drop, I thought it might, just because that is what it has been doing. But seriously just got lucky. Unless of course it crashes and Netflix goes belly up, that would suck. I guess will see how it plays out.

User avatar
dbCooperAir
Posts: 1107
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir » Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:28 pm

Thanks ThebigC

I keep looking at Centerpoint CNP, GE and like you XOM just for giggles.
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

Thebigc
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:26 pm

dbCooperAir wrote:Thanks ThebigC

I keep looking at Centerpoint CNP, GE and like you XOM just for giggles.


Yeah no problem, I like CNP, XOM is really a great buy right now, and GE is sort of like intel for me. Will it achive it's pre 2008 levels? That would be something, but if it can't then it's a solid dividend play with decent upside but a little pricey.

I sort of use my divdend stocks like bonds.

User avatar
randomizer
Posts: 716
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:46 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by randomizer » Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:01 pm

Jcraz13 wrote:The problem is that NO ONE KNOWS. You may have gotten lucky last week or this week, but tomorrow we could be down another 500 or 1000, or up the same or more.


I don't think it's likely things would go up 500 or 1,000 or more in a day. Markets generally seem faster to fall than rise. (But your point is taken: it's pointless to try predicting it, so best to not worry about it and stick to your plan.)

User avatar
Uncle Pennybags
Posts: 1836
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:05 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:50 pm

Mr. Bogle said he never saw such wild speculation in his 60 years in the business. Remember IBM's "Watson"? He has been reprogrammed to read twitter for investor comments to guess what they will do with their money. He then buys and sells it to them in a nano second.

The best thing is own everything and invest regularity.

Grt2bOutdoors
Posts: 17254
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:57 am

Uncle Pennybags wrote:Mr. Bogle said he never saw such wild speculation in his 60 years in the business. Remember IBM's "Watson"? He has been reprogrammed to read twitter for investor comments to guess what they will do with their money. He then buys and sells it to them in a nano second.

The best thing is own everything and invest regularity.


Two ways to reduce speculation - raise the cost of capital (increase interest rates) and raise the margin requirement. Ironically, both of those tools belong in the tool chest of the Federal Reserve Board. There is no other institution responsible for the setting of those percentages, none. So, if you want to point fingers you know where to look.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

Grt2bOutdoors
Posts: 17254
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:59 am

Thebigc wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:Thanks ThebigC

I keep looking at Centerpoint CNP, GE and like you XOM just for giggles.


Yeah no problem, I like CNP, XOM is really a great buy right now, and GE is sort of like intel for me. Will it achive it's pre 2008 levels? That would be something, but if it can't then it's a solid dividend play with decent upside but a little pricey.

I sort of use my divdend stocks like bonds.


Careful with CNP, they were a buy when they were trading way below book, they are impacted now by the Enable MLP they jointly control with OGE. Since NGL's are in the tank along with natural gas prices that MLP isn't doing so well and it's valuations are impacted, that has trickled down to CNP's prospects.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

scott_miller
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:56 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by scott_miller » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:32 am

The fall was to be expected. The only thing I'm looking at right now is the rate hike and how it will delay the inevitable. If it even manages to delay it at all.

Thebigc
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Thebigc » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:34 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thebigc wrote:
dbCooperAir wrote:Thanks ThebigC

I keep looking at Centerpoint CNP, GE and like you XOM just for giggles.


Yeah no problem, I like CNP, XOM is really a great buy right now, and GE is sort of like intel for me. Will it achive it's pre 2008 levels? That would be something, but if it can't then it's a solid dividend play with decent upside but a little pricey.

I sort of use my divdend stocks like bonds.


Careful with CNP, they were a buy when they were trading way below book, they are impacted now by the Enable MLP they jointly control with OGE. Since NGL's are in the tank along with natural gas prices that MLP isn't doing so well and it's valuations are impacted, that has trickled down to CNP's prospects.


Well careful with any commodity based companies in the current environment or countries. That is just the way it is right now. Yeah everyone kind of knows they are bing impacted by lower gas prices, just like oil is being impacted by lower oil prices. Though natural gas has been the more stable of the two.

CNP fair value is around 21-23 dollars per share, it's price to book is at an industrial average, utility earnings were up .3 cents per share, houston electric is seeing strong growth. Yes enable has been impacted by the oil and gas prices but they also increased their cash distribution by 1% and CNP expects to recieve 74 million in distributions in the third quarter and growth is expected at a rate of 3-7% through 2017. CNP also reinstated it's dividended guaidance targeting 4-6% dividened increases. The utilities are the real strength right now for CNP, but long term the MLP is not bad move given the tax advantages, and gas and oil will not be in the hole forever. Regulatory risk is the key to CNP and right now the regulations sare favorable in Texas for CNP. The company is pretty well run, they do a good job dealing with regulation and being transparent.

It's a good company it's just a rough time for the energy sector.

I am not advising anyone to buy this company just to be clear, just talking about the company. I don't own any stock in this company, the moat is a little to narrow for me, but it does have a moat.

Post Reply