U.S. stocks in freefall

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:44 am

grettman wrote:I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? So let's assume your personal investment strategy is "such and such" with an allocation of "such and such" with purchases at "such and such" intervals --- to move those purchases up because of a drop is market timing right?


Rebalancing is not market timing.

Rebalancing happens AFTER the market moves. It's not an attempt to predict future market moves.

Now, if you CHANGE your Asset Allocation because of what the market is doing, that's market timing... If you're 50/50, the market goes up a lot, and you rebalance back to 50/50, that is not market timing.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:51 am

broadstone wrote:
Twins Fan wrote:These "buying opportunities" some are getting so excited about are likely to amount to next to nothing 10 years from now. But hey, if it makes some feel better, I guess....


Well you can continue to think that but you can be sure there will be a large correction at some point. History tells us so. Just be happy for those of us who are willing to sit out and wait.


What happens if the market goes up another 40% before the "large correction" occurs?

Look at THIS thread. There are people who went to cash in 2011 (when this thread started) because they were sure a "large correction" was coming...

There have been plenty of other threads in 2012 and 2013 where people went to cash and posted exactly what you posted... "A large correction is sure to come"

The market is up so much since then though, that even if there is a 30% crash, those people will STILL be unable to take advantage.

You may be right... Sooner or later, someone like you who posts a "large correction is sure to come soon" will be right... It may even be you.

But it may instead be some guy in 2017 who is right (Note I'll be telling him about that guy back in 2015 who was sure too).

I also agree there will be large correction someday... I'm just smart enough to know that I have NO idea when... I'll just ride the market up and down, and control risk by being 50/50 stocks/bonds. In the long-run, I'll just get the average market return, which is pretty good, even INCLUDING all the "large corrections".

You don't have to get out in order to make money long-term in the market. Trying to beat the market by being out during the bad times, and in during the good times, is very difficult. You have a good chance of doing WORSE than the market when trying to time the market.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:55 am, edited 2 times in total.

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mickeyd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mickeyd » Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:52 am

This thread has been floating around for 4 years now. Seems like every time that there is a market increase or decrease of any sizable amount that it is resurrected.

Stocks in freefall~ Stocks on rebound.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:21 am

Always fun to read.

Actually, I like to drop by this conversation from time to time.

Good to read about our shipmates "going cash" three or four months before the so-called corrections and jumping back IN the market a few days before the next rally.

Already then, you have a good and productive day.

Closing now, hitting the trail for my LUng distance workout.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:57 pm

ruralavalon wrote:My core bond fund, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade, is up YTD. In quickly looking at Vanguard's bond offerings, I didn't see any intermediate-term or short-term bond fund that is negative YTD.
My total bond BND is down. I played catch the falling knife, is it done falling? I made another grab for the knife today.

This is my TOTAL return YTD for foreign stocks and all US bond holdings (at this point in time).
1.91% int stock
1.48% all bonds

Now for REAL after tax and inflation return it isn't so pretty; I'm forbidden by law from making contributions to a tax deferred plan.

nisiprius wrote:"terminal-pointkind."
Terminal? Then it don't mean nothing.

grettman wrote:I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? ...
No not at all. I put money into my accounts every month and dollar cost average it in. I always buy the dog that dropped the most if that account is out of balance. Buy low, catch the falling knife, it's fun. :twisted:

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ofcmetz
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz » Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:02 am

No freefall this year yet. All my holdings are slightly positive for the year.

Vanguard S&P 500 Index is about 3% up.
Vanguard small cap index is about 3% up.
Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond index is about 1.6% up.
Vanguard Total International stock index is about 2% up.

While these returns aren't great, they are much better than a freefall.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:08 am

Not yet . . .

No freefall = No MOABO.

Not yet . . .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by longinvest » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:37 am

cfs wrote:Not yet . . .

No freefall = No MOABO.

Not yet . . .

MOABO = Mother Of All Buying Opportunities

It's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms page.
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kenyan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kenyan » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:29 am

The thread title references U.S. stocks, but is it worth mentioning that Emerging Market stocks have fulfilled some people's definition of a 'bear market' over the past few months? VWO (Vanguard EM index ETF) is down almost 23% since late April (per the current intraday price).
Retirement investing is a marathon.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:42 am

kenyan wrote:. . . VWO (Vanguard EM index ETF) is down almost 23% since late April (per the current intraday price).

The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining (JFK). I do not follow the submerging markets, but based on previous conversations some of our shipmates are waiting for the fund to go lower before adding a few more dollars.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:29 pm

Stocks were in a free fall until 30 minutes ago. The FED minutes indicate no September rate hike. Good thing I'm a Boglehead and don't "trade".
longinvest wrote:MOABO = Mother Of All Buying Opportunities
That should work as well as Saddam's "Mother of all Bombs".

Edit: The Fed minutes were inadvertently released early by a "news" agency. The market is again in "free fall". If "news" agencies get the minutes before "Joe Trader" Joe is a fool for trading.

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Re:

Post by 3kats » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:33 pm

fishnskiguy wrote:
UNI4MER wrote:
BigD53 wrote:As soon as the President appeared on TV, the DOW went from being down "only" 300... to being down 500! :roll:

Moderator, you can delete my political comment. (Actually, just an observation.) :beer


I respect this forum immensly. But I would like to see more flexibility when it comes to subject of politics. Now more than ever politics is affecting every aspect of investing and I feel that comments on current political policies and how they are affecting investment decisions are in order.


Ain't gonna happen on our watch. Sorry.

Chris


I am REALLY new here and browsing posts to learn from everyone/ It is reassuring to know the forum's stance on politics... 8-)
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:04 pm

So far the "Nedsaid U.S. stocks in freefall" contrary indicator has worked pretty well. It seems like the market rallies whenever this thread pops up. Let's see if this continues. . . .
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:58 am

Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Sidney » Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:16 am

Browser wrote:Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...


Going to take another 4,000 or so before I hit a re-balance band. Still a lot of room to tick up and down.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:08 am

What time is it?

Time to avoid bonds
Time to buy some gold.
Time to invest in China.
Time to cover your shorts.
Time to pick the right stocks.
Time for some internationals.
Time to deploy your dry powder.
Time to blame the wishy washy Fed.
Time to invest in Emerging Markets.
Time to get some money off the table.
Time to think seriously about Europe.
Time for some good ole sector rotation.
Time to buy, this is just a buying opportunity.
Time to repeat once again this time it's different.
Time for some reality check, nobody knows nothing.
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Browser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:18 am

cfs wrote:What time is it?

Time to avoid bonds
Time to buy some gold.
Time to invest in China.
Time to cover your shorts.
Time to pick the right stocks.
Time for some internationals.
Time to deploy your dry powder.
Time to blame the wishy washy Fed.
Time to invest in Emerging Markets.
Time to get some money off the table.
Time to think seriously about Europe.
Time for some good ole sector rotation.
Time to buy, this is just a buying opportunity.
Time to repeat once again this time it's different.
Time for some reality check, nobody knows nothing.

:thumbsup Which means somebody knows something? The fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:41 am

nedsaid wrote:So far the "Nedsaid U.S. stocks in freefall" contrary indicator has worked pretty well. It seems like the market rallies whenever this thread pops up. Let's see if this continues. . . .
OMG, the "U.S. stocks in freefall" thread didn't stop the fall, time to go all cash.

Ooops, too late, my entire portfolio is down for the year; really down, before tax and inflation. I'm going to grab some falling total US stock, I still have a few fingers left for the month.

Browser wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Sidney wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

Actually, foreign currencies are your biggest losers. Foreign stocks have done OK in local currency, but you have to count the gains in US$.
I thought of your response yesterday; the dollar was down along with my foreign stocks.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:06 pm

Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:21 pm

flyingaway wrote:Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day.

Not even close so far.

Also on the horizon there is no meeting or announcement that could produce unexpected good news. In such situations, the stock market does not go up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by neurosphere » Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:39 pm

By shear coincidence I moved 20% of my stock portfolio to cash last night, for the sake of a long-overdue rebalance. Haven't done it yet today and am looking at a small pile of cash. Maybe I should wait before buying? This could be the start of a 50% stock market decline!

Shoot, now I'm going to have to learn about technical analysis, buy-triggers, P/E ratios, X-day moving averages. If only I could have done a direct exchange, I wouldn't be in this position! :D
-- Real name: Sotirios Keros. If you have to ask "Is a Target Retirement fund right for me?", the answer is yes.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bungo » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:32 pm

A drop of less than 2% is a "really bad day"? Sounds more like a rounding error to me.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dkturner » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:45 pm

livesoft wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day.

Not even close so far.

Also on the horizon there is no meeting or announcement that could produce unexpected good news. In such situations, the stock market does not go up.


Plus, whenever August follows a month with a blue moon we can expect unsettling events.

flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:00 pm

dkturner wrote:
livesoft wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day.

Not even close so far.

Also on the horizon there is no meeting or announcement that could produce unexpected good news. In such situations, the stock market does not go up.


Plus, whenever August follows a month with a blue moon we can expect unsettling events.


Having said that, I am going to make a small "buy" ($500 in my HSA account) at 3:50PM today.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:07 pm

Browser wrote:
cfs wrote:What time is it?

Time to avoid bonds
Time to buy some gold.
Time to invest in China.
Time to cover your shorts.
Time to pick the right stocks.
Time for some internationals.
Time to deploy your dry powder.
Time to blame the wishy washy Fed.
Time to invest in Emerging Markets.
Time to get some money off the table.
Time to think seriously about Europe.
Time for some good ole sector rotation.
Time to buy, this is just a buying opportunity.
Time to repeat once again this time it's different.
Time for some reality check, nobody knows nothing.

:thumbsup Which means somebody knows something? The fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.

Actually yes, the Fed knows something!

And now let me go back to doing something productive (already took care of my LUng distance workout which is numero uno on my list of productive things to do).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:09 pm

dkturner wrote:
livesoft wrote:
flyingaway wrote:Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day.

Not even close so far.

Also on the horizon there is no meeting or announcement that could produce unexpected good news. In such situations, the stock market does not go up.


Plus, whenever August follows a month with a blue moon we can expect unsettling events.


Not this time.

"THIS time", it was having the Perseid meteor shower with a [ready for this?] new moon!
And in August!!!!!

Oh, right, that meteor shower is always in August....

:wink:

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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:12 pm

Yes,Another RGD,,,Really Good Day ,,shares finallly getting a little less expensive,about time some of the air was let out of the balloon :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:38 pm

Bungo wrote:A drop of less than 2% is a "really bad day"? Sounds more like a rounding error to me.
It is a culmination of hurt. I feel for the people who need their investments to maintain a life style.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:59 pm

Browser wrote:Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...

What I said. DOW closed at 16991, sooner than I thought. Bye, bye 17K. She's now down 7.2% since the high on May 19th. Pick one of the following:

1) It's the beginning of a bear market
2) It's a rebalancing opportunity
3) It's a buying opportunity
4) I don't care
5) I don't know nothing
6) All of the above
7) None of the above
8) This is a stupid post.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:22 pm

Browser wrote:Pick one of the following: 5) I don't know nothing
I pick 5 and stay the course. As for U.S. stocks in free fall, they are up for the year. Foreign stocks are another story. The foreign stocks fans are very quiet lately.

This is the second time this year my portfolio's total return is in the red. I'm big on dividends and interest so even though I'm in the red I have a tax liability. That tax works the other way too, I deduct 30% from the losses, that is the US Treasury's loss.

john94549
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by john94549 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:27 pm

IRA CDs are not in freefall. Prudently laddered, IRA CDs can help fund your retirement. My goodness, this is not "new" news.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by S&L1940 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:31 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Bungo wrote:A drop of less than 2% is a "really bad day"? Sounds more like a rounding error to me.
It is a culmination of hurt. I feel for the people who need their investments to maintain a life style.

that is why I focus on fixed income that does not dive as deeply and look to to equity that has good growth to take money off the table when withdrawing monthly funds. goal is not to panic -- too much...
Don't it always seem to go * That you don't know what you've got * Till it's gone

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ddurrett896 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:42 pm

It's happening....

listedguru
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by listedguru » Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:51 pm

john94549 wrote:IRA CDs are not in freefall. Prudently laddered, IRA CDs can help fund your retirement. My goodness, this is not "new" news.


Can you tell me more about laddering IRA CD's? What kind of rate of return are we talking here?

Thanks,

-Guru

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:50 pm

listedguru wrote:Can you tell me more about laddering IRA CD's? What kind of rate of return are we talking here?
"Laddering" is buying CD of varying lengths, 6 months to 5 years. When the 6 month CD matures you buy a 5 year CD. This way you always have a CD maturing. As for return you will lose money to inflation and taxes but what is left is guarantied.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grettman » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:12 am

With the sky falling (Ha! That's a joke btw), I am very interested in seeing posts to this thread and posts to the thread about what are you up so far this year.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:20 am

grettman wrote:With the sky falling (Ha! That's a joke btw), I am very interested in seeing posts to this thread and posts to the thread about what are you up so far this year.
UP?? That is a funny joke, ja ja. Total return YTD is -28 bases points. When the stock market makes the popular news you know it was a special day.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by investingdad » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:31 am

I love this thread...it's like Groundhog Day.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by swguy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:05 am

investingdad wrote:I love this thread...it's like Groundhog Day.


So funny, I saw this thread at the top of the list and I was thinking the same thing.

Perspective is a good thing. We are back to where we were at the beginning of the year, more or less, in terms of growth in equities. Not great, but the money I have in equity mutual funds has grown to what it is because it was in equity mutual funds so the bumps come with the territory.

We will see what today brings!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:12 am

Browser wrote:
Browser wrote:Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...

What I said. DOW closed at 16991, sooner than I thought. Bye, bye 17K. She's now down 7.2% since the high on May 19th. Pick one of the following:

1) It's the beginning of a bear market
2) It's a rebalancing opportunity
3) It's a buying opportunity
4) I don't care
5) I don't know nothing
6) All of the above
7) None of the above
8) This is a stupid post.


My pick is number 5 . . . and now let me go back to doing something productive.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:16 am

Toons wrote:Yes,Another RGD,,,Really Good Day ,,shares finallly getting a little less expensive,about time some of the air was let out of the balloon :happy


Some sectors are down 40%, I think most of the air has just about left the balloon - they are in a bear market.
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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:17 am

cfs wrote:
Browser wrote:
Browser wrote:Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...

What I said. DOW closed at 16991, sooner than I thought. Bye, bye 17K. She's now down 7.2% since the high on May 19th. Pick one of the following:

1) It's the beginning of a bear market
2) It's a rebalancing opportunity
3) It's a buying opportunity
4) I don't care
5) I don't know nothing
6) All of the above
7) None of the above
8) This is a stupid post.


My pick is number 5 . . . and now let me go back to doing something productive.


I am in lockstep with you number 5 :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:33 am

Wow. This is getting ugly fast today. DOW down 184 at the open and SPEE down 20. Wheeeee!
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grettman » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:33 am

For those who enjoy thrill rides: Going up the roller coaster is fun because you have that exciting anticipation of what's next, and going down is fun because it is thrilling. Just remember: "Keep your hands in the car at all times", "stay seated" (getting up and leaving will cause you severe and unnecessary pain), and please whatever you do "Enjoy the ride" (after all, you did pay for it!).

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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:39 am

Automatic rebalancing taking place :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:48 am

The Bogleheads forum may be the only place in the world where people actually seem to celebrate losing money in the stock market. :oops: Ever see the film "Alice in Wonderland"?
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:48 am

Sorry, what are you all seeing? I'm not sure I see it...
Image
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:56 am

Image

Browser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:56 am

nisiprius wrote:Sorry, what are you all seeing? I'm not sure I see it...
Image

From a distance the world looks blue and green
And the snow capped mountains white
From a distance the ocean meets the stream
And the eagle takes to flight
From a distance, there is harmony
And it echoes through the land
It's the voice of hope, it's the voice of peace
It's the voice of every man
From a distance we all have enough
And no one is in need
And there are no guns, no bombs, and no disease
No hungry mouths to feed

Unfortunately, I live on the surface of the earth where things don't always look so rosey.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

DougA
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DougA » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:07 am

This is my first market correction since I started running my own money. I went into this thinking that the two key points are when you buy and when you sell. Sure, there's lots of information in between those two points in time, but you haven't made nor lost a single penny until you sell. Of course, buying is an important point too. So, buy low, sell high. Today sucks if you have to sell. I don't. I didn't make any money before this month because I didn't sell. I haven't lost any money this month because I didn't sell.

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