Calling the bottom

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bertilak
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Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:37 am

Market timing is, I think, not part of Bogleheads philosophy.

But, here I sit with some cash I have ready to allocate to stock ETFs. I plan on sitting on it until I see signs of a recovery. It seems like the only sane thing to do! If stocks are a bargain after a 5% drop won't they be a better bargain if there is another 5% drop?

I know no one can actually call the bottom until after it has happened, but can we make a good guess by looking for an X% increase in value with a Y% increase in volume? How about waiting for IBD to make the "market in uptrend" call?

Is having the cash already different from selling off some equities when we see a drop like this past week? In other words, I feel good about having and holding onto this cash right now. Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
Last edited by bertilak on Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by gotherelate » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:38 am

bertilak wrote:What do others think?
I think your avatar is appropriate.
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Post by yobria » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:42 am

I think you'll have about as much luck as guessing lottery numbers.

Have a written plan and stick to it.

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Post by NoRoboGuy » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:50 am

Agree with Yobria - have a plan and stick to it.

Everyone feels better holding cash when stocks are falling. If you are uncomfortable - losing sleep - then you should review your allocation to stocks. If it is too high, change it and keep it there.

Trying to time markets is a fruitless exercise - annual rebalancing forces you to sell high and buy low when the markets tell you to.
There is no free lunch.

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Post by HardKnocker » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:51 am

Hard to say.

I wouldn't make any big moves yet.
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Post by zinnia » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:56 am

April 1, 2012

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Post by MWCA » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:57 am

I think there is another 10% to go in the SP downwards. Then again I don't market time when I invest :)
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Post by bob90245 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:08 am

Your guess is as good as mine. Here's what another market guru says:

"October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

:wink:
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.

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Post by ofcmetz » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:16 am

Put 10% of your cash into to the market every other business day for the next 4 weeks at your desired asset allocation.

If it continues to go down after this then rebalance as necessary according to a written plan. This is what I would do.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:18 am

louis c wrote: Everyone feels better holding cash when stocks are falling. If you are uncomfortable - losing sleep - then you should review your allocation to stocks. If it is too high, change it and keep it there.
The reason I have some cash available is that I only recently decided to go the way of the Bogleheads, having just finished a couple of very convincing books by Richard Ferri, and already sold off a bunch of miscellaneous actively-managed funds and individual stocks.

I manage an account for myself and a trust account for my mother. I had picked a fairly aggressive allocation strategy for myself because I have a decent pension and Social Security income, and a fairly conservative allocation for my mother's account. Her account held up quite well over the past week or so but mine did not, even though I had not yet fully populated my allocations (needed to wait for settled funds). This did make me rethink things a bit and I will be taking advantage of the fact I hadn't completed my purchases to nudge my account a little more conservative. BUT -- I will buy the bond end now and wait a bit to buy the equity end.

Not really loosing sleep, but perhaps a bit more gun shy than I thought I was!
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Post by nisiprius » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:31 am

The last time I remember someone calling a bottom in this forum was September 4, 2008 when someone posted
The bear market is over

I'm going on the record. I think the July 15 lows will hold.

If you haven't rebalanced in a while, it's time to dust off your spreadsheet and figure out how much in bonds you need to sell and how much in stocks to buy.
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Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:35 am

ofcmetz wrote:... rebalance as necessary ...
That's the part I like. With the Boglehead way, even when the market goes down there is a little solace in seeing it as a re-balance opportunity. All part of the market fluctuation, and that's what earns you your return in the long run.

Still, it would be better if it always went up!
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Post by FNK » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:07 pm

bertilak wrote:BUT -- I will buy the bond end now and wait a bit to buy the equity end.
Buy bonds when they are high and wait for stocks to grow. Excellent strategy. Not.

Dollar cost average into everything, maintaining AA by every purchase, and relax.

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Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:14 pm

FNK wrote:
bertilak wrote:BUT -- I will buy the bond end now and wait a bit to buy the equity end.
Buy bonds when they are high and wait for stocks to grow. Excellent strategy. Not.

Dollar cost average into everything, maintaining AA by every purchase, and relax.
I see your point, but some would say "buy high and sell higher". Actually I am not planning to be that active a trader, but I'm not sure bonds are really high.

Rats! To new to put up an image!
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Post by FNK » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:20 pm

Makes perfect sense! 10-year note at 2.5% has whopping 2.5% * duration upside potential! People are dying to loan dollars for free to the recently downgraded US government!

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by john94549 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:27 pm

bertilak wrote:Market timing is, I think, not part of Bogleheads philosophy.

But, here I sit with some cash I have ready to allocate to stock ETFs. I plan on sitting on it until I see signs of a recovery. It seems like the only sane thing to do! If stocks are a bargain after a 5% drop won't they be a better bargain if there is another 5% drop?

I know no one can actually call the bottom until after it has happened, but can we make a good guess by looking for an X% increase in value with a Y% increase in volume? How about waiting for IBD to make the "market in uptrend" call?

Is having the cash already different from selling off some equities when we see a drop like this past week? In other words, I feel good about having and holding onto this cash right now. Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
I bought 200 shares of SPY last week, and another 100 shares of SSO. Buy when others are in panic mode. I always keep $50K+ in cash, in my trading account, to buy when others sell.

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:38 pm

john94549 wrote: I bought 200 shares of SPY last week, and another 100 shares of SSO. Buy when others are in panic mode.
I keep thinking of 2008/2009. There are still higher numbers on the panic dial! No way to tell how far the knob will turn, but there is plenty of room left.

When "the blood is running in the streets" do we need to measure how deep it is? Doesn't seem very deep yet. Unfortunately my subjective depth meter is very unreliable!

I do believe dollar cost averaging (as mentioned by ofcmetz and FNK) is the way to go, but there are only so many dollars available to me.
Last edited by bertilak on Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by tflannery65 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:39 pm

MARKETS ALWAYS GO FURTHER THAN YOU THINK!

I will put scaled in GTC bids for VTI, EFA, and BND and see what happens. It worked in 2008/09. I will be patient but will be committed to putting cash to work.

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Post by rwwoods » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:39 pm

Sometimes the market will retest a low. I would call the bottom after a sucessful test. In other cases, there is a high volume down day where it seems that everyone is selling - capitulation. In that case, there may be no test of the low. We are not there yet.
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Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:44 pm

tflannery65 wrote:MARKETS ALWAYS GO FURTHER THAN YOU THINK!

I will put scaled in GTC bids for VTI, EFA, and BND and see what happens. It worked in 2008/09. I will be patient but will be committed to putting cash to work.
Question: Would that be averaging down on stocks and averaging up on bonds?
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Post by tflannery65 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:00 pm

Scaled down bids in all 3 ETF's. I will see how things shake out Sunday night. I already have scaled in bids working for VTI (58 down to 38....every 2$), EFA (50 down to 38...every$2) and BND (81.50 down to 79)...every.50cents).

I basically will leave these bids in but obviously make some adjustments. In 2008/09 I bought VTI from 62 all the way down to 39 with resting GTC bids. There were times I wanted to cancel them but I left them in there. Who knows what is going to happen, but I only seem to make money in stocks when I buy after significant sell off's.

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by charityneedshelp » Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:23 pm

john94549 wrote:
bertilak wrote:Market timing is, I think, not part of Bogleheads philosophy.

But, here I sit with some cash I have ready to allocate to stock ETFs. I plan on sitting on it until I see signs of a recovery. It seems like the only sane thing to do! If stocks are a bargain after a 5% drop won't they be a better bargain if there is another 5% drop?

I know no one can actually call the bottom until after it has happened, but can we make a good guess by looking for an X% increase in value with a Y% increase in volume? How about waiting for IBD to make the "market in uptrend" call?

Is having the cash already different from selling off some equities when we see a drop like this past week? In other words, I feel good about having and holding onto this cash right now. Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
I bought 200 shares of SPY last week, and another 100 shares of SSO. Buy when others are in panic mode. I always keep $50K+ in cash, in my trading account, to buy when others sell.
If the last buyer is representative, I think part of the problem evidences itself. Here is somebody buying 200 shares of SPY, and actualkly thinking 200 shares is anything. Its not. Meanwhile the large holders are selling and not talking about it. Maybe they are selling to a whole bunch of miniscule inestors who think they know what they are doing.

On another note to OP, I would not even coinsider that we approached a low until below the last low a few years ago. This is smelling to me like what I read about in the 1930s. A drop of a large size. A recovery. Then the mother load drop.

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by DiscoBunny1979 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:42 pm

bertilak wrote:
I know no one can actually call the bottom until after it has happened, but can we make a good guess by looking for an X% increase in value with a Y% increase in volume? How about waiting for IBD to make the "market in uptrend" call?
--------------

I've been watching IBD and the problem with waiting for that "market in uptrend" call is that Since February 2010 . . . everytime IBD has called an Uptrend Confirmed within a week or so, they have switched back to uptrend under pressure.

February 23: Uptrend Under Pressure
March 7: Market In Correction
March 29: Uptrend Confirmed
April 12: Uptrend Under Pressure
April 20: Market Resumes Uptrend
May 3: Uptrend Under Pressure
May 5: Market In Correction
May 30: Uptrend Confirmed
May 31: Uptrend Under Pressure
June 1: Market In Correction
July 7: Market Resumes Uptrend
July 11: Uptrend Under Pressure
July 19: Uptrend Confirmed
July 25: Uptrend Under Pressure

Just because IBD says the market resumes uptrend, doesn't mean that the trend won't be under pressure AGAIN a week later. But more importantly, what I haven't shown here is that the price at which the Uptrend Confrimed was made, usually is well off the lows. So, getting in at a "lower" price will not occur with IBD's signal. You will get in at a price that will be comfortably above the low on the way to making a high.

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Post by djw » Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:08 pm

I've already begun buying shares, I'd suggest that the OP should do the same, especially in the Vanguard funds which have fallen the most so far. With the average Vanguard stock fund down 10% or so from April highs, the longer you sit on your hands, the more likely you'll wake up one day and notice that the markets have set new 52-week highs while you looked away.

If the market keeps falling, instead of feeling bad for buying shares too early, I cheerfully buy some more at the new, lower price. I'd love to wait and buy in at the exact bottom but how the heck am I going to know when we've reached it?
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Post by Noobvestor » Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:15 pm

bertilak wrote:
FNK wrote:
bertilak wrote:BUT -- I will buy the bond end now and wait a bit to buy the equity end.
Buy bonds when they are high and wait for stocks to grow. Excellent strategy. Not.

Dollar cost average into everything, maintaining AA by every purchase, and relax.
I see your point, but some would say "buy high and sell higher". Actually I am not planning to be that active a trader, but I'm not sure bonds are really high.

Rats! To new to put up an image!
If anyone WERE sure, they'd be rich overnight. The question I always ask myself when I think I know something is: wait, if I think I know this, doesn't the rest of the market think they know this?

My last prediction was: stocks will rally after the debt ceiling is raised. Whoops, got that one backward. Then I thought about it: wait, everyone else thought that too. Shoot. Guess it was priced in :)

tl;dr tune out the noise, stay the course
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Post by charityneedshelp » Sat Aug 06, 2011 3:18 pm

bertilak wrote:
ofcmetz wrote:... rebalance as necessary ...
That's the part I like. With the Boglehead way, even when the market goes down there is a little solace in seeing it as a re-balance opportunity. All part of the market fluctuation, and that's what earns you your return in the long run.

Still, it would be better if it always went up!
How can you rebalance if both stocks and bonds decline?

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 3:24 pm

DiscoBunny1979 wrote: I've been watching IBD and the problem with waiting for that "market in uptrend" call is that Since February 2010 . . . everytime IBD has called an Uptrend Confirmed within a week or so, they have switched back to uptrend under pressure.
I was wondering if someone was going to pick up on my comment!

Following IBD's market calls is unrewarding, to say the least!
Last edited by bertilak on Sat Aug 06, 2011 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ofcmetz » Sat Aug 06, 2011 3:48 pm

charityneedshelp wrote:
bertilak wrote:
ofcmetz wrote:... rebalance as necessary ...
That's the part I like. With the Boglehead way, even when the market goes down there is a little solace in seeing it as a re-balance opportunity. All part of the market fluctuation, and that's what earns you your return in the long run.

Still, it would be better if it always went up!
How can you rebalance if both stocks and bonds decline?
I see you asked the same in another thread. Lol


Not necessary to rebalance when both asset classes move in tandem.
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Post by avalpert » Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:17 pm

charityneedshelp wrote:
bertilak wrote:
ofcmetz wrote:... rebalance as necessary ...
That's the part I like. With the Boglehead way, even when the market goes down there is a little solace in seeing it as a re-balance opportunity. All part of the market fluctuation, and that's what earns you your return in the long run.

Still, it would be better if it always went up!
How can you rebalance if both stocks and bonds decline?
If they decline at different rates you may still need to rebalance to maintain your allocation.

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Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 5:45 pm

charityneedshelp wrote:
bertilak wrote:
ofcmetz wrote:... rebalance as necessary ...
That's the part I like. With the Boglehead way, even when the market goes down there is a little solace in seeing it as a re-balance opportunity. All part of the market fluctuation, and that's what earns you your return in the long run.

Still, it would be better if it always went up!
How can you rebalance if both stocks and bonds decline?
Well, cash is one of my allocations and it doesn't go down with the market. Also even in a down market not everything declines at the same rate. Admittedly there is less of a spread in a down market.
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by VennData » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:16 pm

bertilak wrote:How about waiting for IBD?
IMHO IBD is unadulterated sewage. Worse than useless. Would never waste a cent nor a second reading their "news coverage," "guesses," or opinions.

Their lack of a record speaks for itself.

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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Sat Aug 06, 2011 6:31 pm

VennData wrote:
bertilak wrote:How about waiting for IBD?
IMHO IBD is unadulterated sewage. Worse than useless. Would never waste a cent nor a second reading their "news coverage," "guesses," or opinions.

Their lack of a record speaks for itself.
I agree with you on their stock analysis, but I think their main news is informative and interesting. I *might* keep the suibscription.

I retired in December and dropped my financial advisor to manage my own investments. I had a few bad starts over the past 8 months and made a few mistakes. One of those mistakes was trying to pick stocks using William O'Neal's CANSLIM method with the help of IBD. I have learned two things:
  • 1. Using their charting analysis ("cup with handle", etc.) is pure snake oil. It's like seeing pictures in clouds or ink blots. Every buy-point that fails to deliver always has a story behind why in that particular case there was something deeper in the pattern that should have warned you. This is of course explained after the fact.

    2. IBD's "Big Picture, Market Pulse, Current Outlook" jumps around so fast that it tells you less than eyeballing the S&P 500 chart -- and that doesn't tell you much.
I added that comment about IBD in my original post as a kind of joke.
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Post by swyck » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:51 am

August 18th. :)

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Post by bertilak » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:59 am

swyck wrote:August 18th. :)
Happy Birthday?
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by GregLee » Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:01 am

bertilak wrote:Is having the cash already different from selling off some equities when we see a drop like this past week? In other words, I feel good about having and holding onto this cash right now. Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
IMO, the answer to that first question, as a matter of rational investment strategy, is No, except for the minor difference made by transaction costs. But as to how good you would feel, well, who knows or cares?

I've been sitting on some cash, too, but I spent 10k of it at the end of the week, in response to that little dip. If the market continues on down the next two weeks, I'll buy in 10k more, and similarly after a month of losses, another 10k. And that's all I have to invest for now. I'm not going to be selling -- I'll ride it all the way to the bottom, if that's where it goes. But if the market stabilizes or goes up, I'll keep my cash out and wait for lower prices.

I think I might have a chance at predicting a major bottom, and that's when most of you get scared completely out of the market. We're obviously not there, yet. But I have no idea what will happen next week.

I think it's better to have a strategy, as opposed to deciding on intuition or how good you feel.
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Post by Bongleur » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:30 pm

>I had picked a fairly aggressive allocation strategy for myself because I have a decent pension and Social Security income, and a fairly conservative allocation for my mother's account.
>

So you won't be poor if a lot of that cash is lost? So risking it is OK...

But you don't _need_ to be richer than you are now? So risking it is not _necessary_ ...

Do you have a _need_ to invest now, ie can you articulate a goal which requires action right now?

Nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines until you feel that your Bogle Education is up to making intelligent decisions. Only you can determine when that may be.
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Post by bertilak » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:44 pm

Bongleur wrote:Do you have a _need_ to invest now, ie can you articulate a goal which requires action right now?
I think that may net it out best, with the answer "No". It's the "right now" that pushes the answer into the "no" column.

I do have a need I can articulate: Although my current income is adequate right now, I can't rely on that forever. But that doesn't mean immediate action is needed. If there is a possibility that I can enter the equities market in the near future at a lower price, it makes sense to give that a chance to come about. Dollar cost averaging my way in is better than an immediate jump into the deep end.
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Post by tipswatcher » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:45 pm

I don't pick tops or bottoms, but I am human ...

Dow 10,000 doesn't look impossible.

It is sort of the sacred benchmark, isn't it? Remember when we first crossed 10,000 back in March 16, 1999 ... what a great day! (CNBC's ratings must have been through the roof!)

Oh, yeah.

I guess it is worth mentioning that the Dow was at 10,000 on June 11, 2010, not so long ago. It certainly could visit that hallowed benchmark once gain.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 99872.html
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by staythecourse » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:20 pm

bertilak wrote:Market timing is, I think, not part of Bogleheads philosophy.

But, here I sit with some cash I have ready to allocate to stock ETFs. I plan on sitting on it until I see signs of a recovery. It seems like the only sane thing to do! If stocks are a bargain after a 5% drop won't they be a better bargain if there is another 5% drop?

I know no one can actually call the bottom until after it has happened, but can we make a good guess by looking for an X% increase in value with a Y% increase in volume? How about waiting for IBD to make the "market in uptrend" call?

Is having the cash already different from selling off some equities when we see a drop like this past week? In other words, I feel good about having and holding onto this cash right now. Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
No its not the same. If you sold equities you locked in your losses without taking the chance to see it come back up with time. If you are holding cash now you may be missing an opportunity to be buying equities a lower price. If you wait it out too long in cash you will miss the upswing in equities when it happens.

As you can see anything is possible. Investing is like living life. NO ONE can predict what will happen in the future. That is why the best course of action is to come up with a personal IPS and FOLLOW it as closely as you can.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

markierussell
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by markierussell » Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:34 am

Jim Otar, who has had a lot of favourable comment on this site, advocates an approach using moving averages: when the 5 day moving average goes below the 12 month moving average, he considers it a "storm warning" and suggests reducing equity exposure. Then wait until the 5 day average goes above the 12 month, and that is a sign the storm is likely over. That's when to increase equity exposure.

Given the recent slump, we are in a "storm warning" scenario. So this theory would say do not buy equities until the 5 day average moves above the 12 month.

It seems this approach denies the standard "don't time the markets" Bogleheads approach but if you look at the historical lines it looks persuasive. Comments?

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bertilak
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:08 am

markierussell wrote: It seems this approach denies the standard "don't time the markets" Bogleheads approach but if you look at the historical lines it looks persuasive. Comments?
Somewhere there is a boundary between micro-management and responsible management. Certainly disciplined re-balancing falls in the camp of responsible management and day-trading is far on the "dark side".

The question is, is being aware of and reacting to larger market trends responsible management?

In my case, I was in the midst of changing my holdings from a mish-mash of individual stocks, managed funds, commodity funds, options(!), etc. to a more "Boglish" allocation of indexed ETFs. Because things were in flux, I stopped buying equity funds when I was about 2/3 complete. This morning I sold of some of what I had to where I am now only about half populated. I also froze buying bond funds.

I plan on sitting things out for a bit until I can see the market stabilize and will then start averaging back in. maybe over a period of 2-3 months.

Now the question is, what will be the signal that the market has stabilized? Perhaps some combination of technical indicators (like the moving averages you mention) and a lack of negative economic news.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker, the Cowboy Poet

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Trader007
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Post by Trader007 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:17 am

Many of the big boys use 20, 50 and 200. We just bounced from 200 weekly average in S&P500.

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BigFoot48
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by BigFoot48 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:49 am

bertilak wrote:Because things were in flux, I stopped buying equity funds when I was about 2/3 complete. This morning I sold of some of what I had to where I am now only about half populated.
Many people are apparently doing something similar today, but a classic mistake unless you can get lucky and re-buy at a lower level.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

whiskers
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Post by whiskers » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:58 am

tipswatcher wrote:I don't pick tops or bottoms, but I am human ...

Dow 10,000 doesn't look impossible.

It is sort of the sacred benchmark, isn't it? Remember when we first crossed 10,000 back in March 16, 1999 ... what a great day! (CNBC's ratings must have been through the roof!)

Oh, yeah.

I guess it is worth mentioning that the Dow was at 10,000 on June 11, 2010, not so long ago. It certainly could visit that hallowed benchmark once gain.
The thing is, at least in my limited understanding, that the 2010 10K benchmark is equal $10,351.56 today, and the '99 benchmark is equal $13,548.74 today after taking inflation into account.

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tadamsmar
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by tadamsmar » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:01 am

bertilak wrote:Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
Can I borrow your time machine?

I need to raise some cash yesterday so I can feel good about it.

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Random Musings
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Post by Random Musings » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:01 am

Market bottoms (and market tops) are typically found after those events have occurred. The rare ones who call it have their 15 minutes of fame and investors later find out that past lucky market calls are not a guarantee of future lucky calls.

RM

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bertilak
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:02 am

BigFoot48 wrote:
bertilak wrote:Because things were in flux, I stopped buying equity funds when I was about 2/3 complete. This morning I sold of some of what I had to where I am now only about half populated.
Many people are apparently doing something similar today, but a classic mistake unless you can get lucky and re-buy at a lower level.
I can sort of do that already. I can buy today at a lower level than I *intended* to buy last week, but held off. If the market jumps back to where it was last week and I buy back in I haven't lost anything except brokerage fees. I look at that as the cost of insurance.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker, the Cowboy Poet

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bertilak
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by bertilak » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:06 am

tadamsmar wrote:
bertilak wrote:Would I feel just as good if I raised the cash yesterday by selling some equities?

What do others think?
Can I borrow your time machine?

I need to raise some cash yesterday so I can feel good about it.

You forgot to read the "if", which makes that a hypothetical question. Hypothetical questions are sometimes useful when illustrating a point of discussion.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker, the Cowboy Poet

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Dan Moroboshi
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Re: Calling the bottom

Post by Dan Moroboshi » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:09 am

VennData wrote:
bertilak wrote:How about waiting for IBD?
IMHO IBD is unadulterated sewage. Worse than useless. Would never waste a cent nor a second reading their "news coverage," "guesses," or opinions.

Their lack of a record speaks for itself.
NOT TRUE! They had the balls to tell the truth by pointing out that Stephen Hawking would have been brutally euthanized years ago by the penny pinchers of the UK's NHS!
IBD wrote:People such as scientist Stephen Hawking wouldn't have a chance in the U.K., where the National Health Service would say the life of this brilliant man, because of his physical handicaps, is essentially worthless.
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysi ... ?id=503058

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