Japanese Nikkei crashing 14%, back to March 2009 levels!

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OkieIndexer
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Japanese Nikkei crashing 14%, back to March 2009 levels!

Post by OkieIndexer » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:39 pm

The Nikkei 225 is back to the levels of late March 2009. :shock:

The low of the day so far is 8227, a 14% crash from yesterday's close.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNIKKEI:.N225
"In bull markets, people say 'The more risk I take, the greater my return.' But when people aren't afraid of risk, they'll accept risk without being compensated." -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital

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MekongTrader
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Post by MekongTrader » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:50 pm

I know this is an investing forum but who cares really about the Nikkei right now.

It's depressing watching the news. Reactor explosions and fires. Risk of meltdown. Radiation leaking.

So many people lost their lives.

I wish I could help in a meaningful way.

The Japanese people are very resilient and they will come back.

My prayers go out to them.

I am very sad

MT

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Post by baw703916 » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:05 am

MekongTrader wrote:I know this is an investing forum but who cares really about the Nikkei right now.

It's depressing watching the news. Reactor explosions and fires. Risk of meltdown. Radiation leaking.

So many people lost their lives.

I wish I could help in a meaningful way.

The Japanese people are very resilient and they will come back.

My prayers go out to them.

I am very sad

MT
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Imperabo
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Post by Imperabo » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:16 am

MekongTrader wrote:I know this is an investing forum but who cares really about the Nikkei right now.
Because it's a good indication when serious people are betting serious money on how serious this problem is.

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craigr
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Post by craigr » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:23 am

I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me.

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Post by Manbaerpig » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:24 am

personally I'd wait a week

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craigr
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Post by craigr » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:26 am

Manbaerpig wrote:personally I'd wait a week
Timing is up to the investor. The point being that one way to support Japan is to invest in their economy when many are abandoning them. Japan will recover from these events.
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zaplunken
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Post by zaplunken » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:37 am

it is 23 minutes before the tokyo se closes -

Nikkei 8660.66 -959.83 (-9.98%)
TOPIX 770.19 -76.77 (-9.06%)
Hang Seng 22449.60 -896.28 (-3.84%)

per bloomberg

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Post by Tuxx » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:52 am

75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.

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craigr
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Post by craigr » Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:53 am

craigr wrote:I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
...as in "play money" type investing. Not part of my standard allocation.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me.

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Post by Noobvestor » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:18 am

craigr wrote:I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
Why large and not small cap (there are two ETFs at least for the latter). Sure, the large has the big name-brand nationals, but many of those are going to be slow or stopped on the production front - smaller businesses may weather a bit better, and be more involved with things that can help rebuild, I would think (this is very off-the-cuff from an at-a-glance look at holdings).
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craigr
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Post by craigr » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:24 am

Noobvestor wrote:
craigr wrote:I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
Why large and not small cap (there are two ETFs at least for the latter). Sure, the large has the big name-brand nationals, but many of those are going to be slow or stopped on the production front - smaller businesses may weather a bit better, and be more involved with things that can help rebuild, I would think (this is very off-the-cuff from an at-a-glance look at holdings).
Whatever floats your boat. Small cap iShares is SCJ. But my feeling is that the larger companies will be most involved.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me.

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Post by Tuxx » Tue Mar 15, 2011 3:43 am

Wow, wow, wow.

I turned on CNBC and they are calling this the biggest world wide stimulus program in our lifetimes and are spinning this bullish for stocks.

WOW. Why did I watch? :shock:

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Imperabo
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Post by Imperabo » Tue Mar 15, 2011 3:50 am

Tuxx wrote:Wow, wow, wow.

I turned on CNBC and they are calling this the biggest world wide stimulus program in our lifetimes and are spinning this bullish for stocks.

WOW. Why did I watch? :shock:

CNBC is a good use for parental blocking controls.

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Post by jon-nyc » Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:33 am

craigr wrote:I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
I'll be buying today. It's part of my AA model and I rebalance based on bands. So my purchase today is somewhat formulaic.

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Post by dnaumov » Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:41 am

craigr wrote:I am looking into purchasing iShares Ticker EWJ which covers all major Japanese industries. It may be a good investment to put into the companies that have brought the world so many innovations through the years when at a deep discount. I think it is a good thing to support these companies that will be rebuilding the affected areas.
This is a common misconception. Unless you were taking part on an IPO, you buyind stocks does not in any way mean you are giving money to support a company. You are giving money to another entity that is holding tbe shares and is willing to sell.

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Post by jon-nyc » Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:45 am

Buying their stock certainly supports them, by increasing demand for their shares thus applying upward pressure on the price.

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Post by riskreward » Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:38 am

Tuxx wrote:75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.
too bad you missed the 100% runup in stocks over the last 2 years.

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Post by ajc8688 » Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:55 am

MekongTrader wrote:
I wish I could help in a meaningful way.

The Japanese people are very resilient and they will come back.

My prayers go out to them.

MT
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Post by Tuxx » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:08 am

riskreward wrote:
Tuxx wrote:75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.
too bad you missed the 100% runup in stocks over the last 2 years.
I went to this allocation on March 3rd @ SPX 1331.94.

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Post by Ed 2 » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:29 am

Tuxx wrote:
riskreward wrote:
Tuxx wrote:75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.
too bad you missed the 100% runup in stocks over the last 2 years.
I went to this allocation on March 3rd @ SPX 1331.94.
Good luck on paying taxes by the end of the year!
Timing is a losers game,IMO
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Post by lazyday » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:39 am

MekongTrader wrote:I know this is an investing forum but who cares really about the Nikkei right now.

It's depressing watching the news. Reactor explosions and fires. Risk of meltdown. Radiation leaking.

So many people lost their lives.

I wish I could help in a meaningful way.

The Japanese people are very resilient and they will come back.
Yes, I agree.

(except radiation)

After 9/11 in US, which was a much smaller loss, many people found themselves attached to the television and becoming depressed. Saw this with people close to me. I'd suggest to those becoming depressed with the news to consider limiting exposure to it, unless family is involved.

As long as the containment vessels aren't breached, which seems extremely unlikely, the radiation problem appears to be quite minor in comparison to the others. It's something else tv repeats in scary terms, making it sound so much worse than it is. There is a problem with a spent fuel storage building, but again, nothing compared to what happened earlier before reactor trouble.

About investing-many people invest for their family including their children, education, their own retirement, spouse retirement, and so on. So while this forum sometimes seems very cold in investing discussions, people do have a duty to protect their investments, and to earn a reasonable return.

Over the last several years, and indeed over our lifetimes, we all have been exposed to news of such horrors about so many people that self defense mechanisms usually come up. I think they must; in nature many years ago, people wouldn't have heard about every violent act, or terrible act of nature, that happens miles away, much less half way around the world. We would be exposed to maybe a few such things in a lifetime, instead of every day if we read the paper or watch the news. Multiply by thousands, tens of thousands today, or hundreds of thousands a few years ago.

I'm sorry for those who have suffered, who are suffering, and those who have lost loved ones.

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Post by Tuxx » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:02 am

Ed 2 wrote: Timing is a losers game,IMO
Good luck to you but giving it all back is not my thing. The market has rolled over. A 15% tax hit will look mild to what you have in store.

See you at SPX 1010.

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Post by honkeoki » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:19 am

Tuxx wrote:
Ed 2 wrote: Timing is a losers game,IMO
Good luck to you but giving it all back is not my thing. The market has rolled over. A 15% tax hit will look mild to what you have in store.

See you at SPX 1010.
Gentlemen, please take it outside. (Yes, yes -- you're both right, and you can both predict the future, and you're both the smartest and the fastest and the strongest.)

This thread isn't about you.
Be smug when others are fearful; be fearful when others are smug.

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LH
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Post by LH » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:26 am

Tuxx wrote:75% cash, 15% ETF AGG, 10% oil, gold/silver miners and tobacco stocks.

Will keep this allocation for some time.
Tuxx wrote:
Ed 2 wrote: Timing is a losers game,IMO
Good luck to you but giving it all back is not my thing. The market has rolled over. A 15% tax hit will look mild to what you have in store.

See you at SPX 1010.
I went to this allocation on March 3rd @ SPX 1331.94.
Wow, wow, wow.

I turned on CNBC and they are calling this the biggest world wide stimulus program in our lifetimes and are spinning this bullish for stocks.

WOW. Why did I watch?
This is an interesting combination of quotes and appears to be a hard call of sorts, a rarity. Its not stated what AA he got out of though.

But seems to state he will not get back in until spx "1010" a pretty specific number, its not like that is 1000 or something.

The whole wow, wow, wow. WOW thing about watching cnbc, really juxtaposes with the specific 1010 call.

Hopefully will turn out well, but looking at it, seems a pretty bad thing.

So 75 percent cash, 15 bonds, 10 oil/gold/tobacoo stocks until spx 1010 is hit.

Interesting call.

LH

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Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:17 am

What's going on in Japan is that no one knows what's going on. That's causing people to think the worst that could happen, will happen. This fear is leading to widespread selling of any risky asset including commodities. Ironically, gold is falling also. It's been the presumed safe-haven over the past decade.

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Post by BlueEars » Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:07 am

As has always happened in the past, the markets will start rising at some point. Could be today, who knows.

I'm betting the markets will be up this year, probably very nicely.

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Post by jh » Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:10 am

...
Last edited by jh on Sat May 07, 2011 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dan Moroboshi
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Post by Dan Moroboshi » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:12 pm

Tuxx wrote:Wow, wow, wow.

I turned on CNBC and they are calling this the biggest world wide stimulus program in our lifetimes and are spinning this bullish for stocks.

WOW. Why did I watch? :shock:
Oh, check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX80vWJhtMk#t=35s

Larry Kudlow on the disaster: "The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful for that. The human toll is a tragedy; we know that. But these markets, all these markets -- stocks, commodities, oil, gold -- there is no major breakout or breakdown."

Female talking head: "Oil is moving lower. They feel as though this is good news for the US economy."

Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot?!!

I don't know whether to facepalm or ragepunch. Maybe both?

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Post by anthau » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:41 pm

Imperabo wrote:
Tuxx wrote:Wow, wow, wow.

I turned on CNBC and they are calling this the biggest world wide stimulus program in our lifetimes and are spinning this bullish for stocks.

WOW. Why did I watch? :shock:

CNBC is a good use for parental blocking controls.
I must be a finance geek, because I found this riotously funny. :lol:
Best, | | Anth

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Mr. Kudlow misspoke

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:47 pm

Hi Dan:

Mr. Kudlow is a decent man. I am sure he did not mean what his words conveyed.

What he said:
The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful for that.
What I think he meant:
The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful the economic toll is not that bad.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Random Musings
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Post by Random Musings » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:49 pm

The Nikkei 225 was also in this 8400 level in 1983. Inflation adjusted, it would look take you back into the early 70's.

However, you would still have gotten dividends.

RM

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Post by no_name » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:56 pm

Hey! Was this a good day to rebalance???

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Re: Japanese Nikkei crashing 14%, back to March 2009 levels!

Post by yobria » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:57 pm

OkieIndexer wrote:The Nikkei 225 is back to the levels of late March 2009. :shock:

The low of the day so far is 8227, a 14% crash from yesterday's close.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNIKKEI:.N225
Which means it's also back to 1983 or so levels...

Nick

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Post by Hector » Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:14 pm

Tuxx wrote:
Ed 2 wrote: Timing is a losers game,IMO
Good luck to you but giving it all back is not my thing. The market has rolled over. A 15% tax hit will look mild to what you have in store.

See you at SPX 1010.
For how long have you been investing? What is your XIRR?

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Dan Moroboshi
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Post by Dan Moroboshi » Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:33 pm

Taylor: If you're vouching for Mr. Kudlow, I will accept that he misspoke. (I've been guilty of that from time to time.)

I think this raised my hackles because it was similar to a situation I observed on September 11, 2001. A couple dozen docs were watching the news in the surgeons' lounge, and there was one who was frantically trying to reach his broker. I live in a city with a large United States Air Force base. All of us were thinking of the people in New York City, Washington DC, and Pennsylvania. Most of us were thinking of family, friends, and neighbors who would undoubtedly soon be deployed. It just seemed incongruous that this guy's main priority was his investment portfolio.

I suppose some talking head in Japan might have speculated on that day that the financial damage to the USA was probably limited, and that we'd eventually rebound.

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Post by tetractys » Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:43 pm

Dan Moroboshi wrote: It just seemed incongruous that this guy's main priority was his investment portfolio.
It's been said, "your money or your life." And course depending on time and circumstances, there's various actions one might take when confronted with those words, and various interpretations of how life and money relate to each other. -- Tet
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Post by natureexplorer » Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:49 pm

I am buying Japanese equities.

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Post by yobria » Tue Mar 15, 2011 3:00 pm

Random Musings wrote:The Nikkei 225 was also in this 8400 level in 1983. Inflation adjusted, it would look take you back into the early 70's.

However, you would still have gotten dividends.

RM
Funny I didn't see your post, and randomly guessed 1983 in mine...

Nick

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Post by natureexplorer » Tue Mar 15, 2011 4:50 pm

December 29, 1989: 38,916
March 10, 2009: 7,055
April 27, 2010: 11,213
March 10, 2011: 10,434
March 14, 2011: 9,620
March 15, 2011: 8,605

Anyone who had a fixed allocation to Japanese stocks had a lot of rebalancing to do for 22 years already.

Could the same happen to US stocks? Yes.

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Post by pauliec84 » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:49 pm

Could the same happen to US stocks? Yes.
For me this is why the heavy home bias is crazy. Especially since we already have our labor income and home ownership tied up here. If anything you should have a home aversion in investing.


[/quote]

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Re: Mr. Kudlow misspoke

Post by Stevewc » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:09 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Hi Dan:

Mr. Kudlow is a decent man. I am sure he did not mean what his words conveyed.

What he said:
The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful for that.
What I think he meant:
The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful the economic toll is not that bad.
I agree.
Mr. Kudlow seems to enjoys doing his job and really gets into talking about the market. But in no way comes off as a bad apple.
My .02,
Steve
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Post by natureexplorer » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:37 pm

pauliec84 wrote:
Could the same happen to US stocks? Yes.
For me this is why the heavy home bias is crazy. Especially since we already have our labor income and home ownership tied up here. If anything you should have a home aversion in investing.
I agree. And in my opinion it is the more interesting question. But I am told the US is different.

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Post by AndroAsc » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:49 pm

The drop is hardly impressive. Vanguard Total International hasn't moved much... a small drop yes, but nothing compared to the 2008 crisis where it read "50% DISCOUNT".

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Post by Ruprecht » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:57 pm

jh wrote:The destruction of Europe in WW2 is probably what got the world out of the depression.
I might have agreed with you before reading Economics in One Lesson, specifically the broken window fallacy: http://fee.org/library/books/economics- ... on/#0.1_L3

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Post by pauliec84 » Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:01 pm

But I am told the US is different.
I would say anytime anyone tells you "*Insert Anything* is different". Run in the other direction.

With that said, I am slightly biased towards US due to more attractive funds (ie lower ER and more fund options (small cap value)).

The only argument that I can see made for US is different is that it has the largest % capitalization, and is more internally diversified. This is true, and this is an argument to give it a AA the size of the % of outstanding world capitalization, not a reason to go above it.

US stocks have homogenous political risk that can only be diversified away via international stocks. Furthermore any argument of why "inveting in US is better safer etc.." would be accounted for in risk premium received for US equities.

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