2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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Taylor Larimore
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2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Bogleheads:

I am pleased to announce our eleventh annual Boglehead Contest. Last January we had 272 Bogleheads' forecast where the S&P 500 Index would be at the end of 2010. Their guesses ranged from 444 to 2005. The Index closed at 1257.64.

2011 (and earlier) BOGLEHEAD CONTESTS

Boglehead GORDO won last year's contest with an almost perfect forecast of 1258. WOW! Gordo will receive the latest edition of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing and his choice of any one of Mr. Bogle's great books. This year's winner will receive the same prizes.

Rules for the 2011 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2011.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration ends 12:00 PM forum time, January 10, 20ll
* In event of ties, the first forecast wins
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2012 to confirm user name and mailing address.
* Post your 2011 S&P Index forecast below

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:53 pm, edited 7 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
GammaPoint
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Post by GammaPoint »

Hmm, I'll go with 1400.
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FrugalInvestor
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Post by FrugalInvestor »

1422
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify. Then ignore the noise!
Beantown85
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Post by Beantown85 »

1446
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camper
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Post by camper »

1444.44
tim1999
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Post by tim1999 »

1319
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Tortoise
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Post by Tortoise »

1346
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LynnC
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Post by LynnC »

1333.33

LynnC
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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon »

1346.06

Because tortoise beat me to it.
Last edited by simplesimon on Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
BogleMe
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Post by BogleMe »

1213
jml39
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Post by jml39 »

1392
NYCPete
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Post by NYCPete »

1358.25
To the extent that a fool knows his foolishness, | He may be deemed wise | A fool who considers himself wise | Is indeed a fool. | | Buddha
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LadyGeek
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Post by LadyGeek »

1352.56
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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camper
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Post by camper »

simplesimon wrote:1346.06

Because tortoise beat me to it.
You got beat by a tortoise? :lol:
Steve K
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Post by Steve K »

1349.88
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thirdman
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Post by thirdman »

1436

_________________________________

Wolfe nodded. "I agree with you. All debts are preposterous. They are the envious past clutching with it's cold dead fingers the throat of the living present." Nero Wolfe in "The Rubber Band" copyright 1936 by Rex Stout.
centrifuge41
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Post by centrifuge41 »

Hm, almost everyone is going for a gain in 2011. I'll throw a curveball in!

1178.23
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mudfud
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Post by mudfud »

1402.57
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image
RTR2006
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Post by RTR2006 »

1371.62

(ranking #13 in 2009 and #181 in 2010, so I am not trending so well!).

:wink:

RTR
Bluegrass
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Post by Bluegrass »

I will place my bets on 1375. :)
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baa_10
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Post by baa_10 »

1459

Thanks....
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JDaniels
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Post by JDaniels »

1395.98
"The poor long for riches. The rich long for heaven. But the wise desire tranquility."
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JMacDonald
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Post by JMacDonald »

Hi,
It will be a good year so 1490.30.
Best Wishes, | Joe
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englishgirl
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Post by englishgirl »

1412
Sarah
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Post by Call_Me_Op »

I'll go with 1418.
Last edited by Call_Me_Op on Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RBK
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Post by RBK »

I'll play. 1315.
pshonore
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Post by pshonore »

1472
Norris
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Post by Norris »

1312
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Don Christy
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Post by Don Christy »

1380.90
bank5
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Post by bank5 »

1480
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norookie
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Post by norookie »

:D 1411.4 :D
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Bigfoothunter
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Post by Bigfoothunter »

1459
imaginethat
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Post by imaginethat »

1402.26
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sergeant
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Post by sergeant »

1313
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
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BigFoot48
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Post by BigFoot48 »

1359.13

I have modified my algorithm to include frequency of sun spots, prime number exclusions, and the migration of sea turtles so I fully expect to be in the Top 10 once again!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 15-time loser
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Birdie Num Nums
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Post by Birdie Num Nums »

1370.83
blu-ray
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Post by blu-ray »

1377
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Dan_NoVA
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Post by Dan_NoVA »

1357.9
froggy
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Post by froggy »

My Guess is 1367.76
chaz
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Post by chaz »

1487.0
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
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Post by investor »

my guess

1421.67

investor
JordanIB
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Post by JordanIB »

1484.02
earlyout
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Post by earlyout »

1350
bac573
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Post by bac573 »

1340.41
Last edited by bac573 on Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Saluki31
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Post by Saluki31 »

1397.36
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fishnskiguy
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Post by fishnskiguy »

Hmmmm. 47 post and only two predict a loss. Too many folks looking through rose colored glasses. The market is ahead of itself.

1129.20

Chris
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Sam I Am
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Post by Sam I Am »

1500

Well, one can dream, no?

Sam I Am
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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor »

1289.95.

Can we stop the contest a few hours earlier this year?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri »

1401

That was my guess for 2010, letting it carry to 2011.
nhdean
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Post by nhdean »

1485
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