2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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Taylor Larimore
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2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:46 pm

Hi Bogleheads:

I am pleased to announce our eleventh annual Boglehead Contest. Last January we had 272 Bogleheads' forecast where the S&P 500 Index would be at the end of 2010. Their guesses ranged from 444 to 2005. The Index closed at 1257.64.

2011 (and earlier) BOGLEHEAD CONTESTS

Boglehead GORDO won last year's contest with an almost perfect forecast of 1258. WOW! Gordo will receive the latest edition of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing and his choice of any one of Mr. Bogle's great books. This year's winner will receive the same prizes.

Rules for the 2011 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2011.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration ends 12:00 PM forum time, January 10, 20ll
* In event of ties, the first forecast wins
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2012 to confirm user name and mailing address.
* Post your 2011 S&P Index forecast below

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:53 pm, edited 7 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

GammaPoint
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Post by GammaPoint » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:49 pm

Hmm, I'll go with 1400.

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FrugalInvestor
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Post by FrugalInvestor » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:51 pm

1422
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

Beantown85
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Post by Beantown85 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:55 pm

1446

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camper
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Post by camper » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:55 pm

1444.44

tim1999
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Post by tim1999 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:57 pm

1319

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Tortoise
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Post by Tortoise » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:57 pm

1346
"Always do right. This will gratify some people, and astonish the rest." --Mark Twain

LynnC
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Post by LynnC » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:57 pm

1333.33

LynnC

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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:57 pm

1346.06

Because tortoise beat me to it.
Last edited by simplesimon on Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.

BogleMe
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Post by BogleMe » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:57 pm

1213

jml39
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Post by jml39 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:58 pm

1392

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NYCPete
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Post by NYCPete » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:04 pm

1358.25
To the extent that a fool knows his foolishness, | He may be deemed wise | A fool who considers himself wise | Is indeed a fool. | | Buddha

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LadyGeek
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Post by LadyGeek » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:08 pm

1352.56
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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camper
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Post by camper » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:08 pm

simplesimon wrote:1346.06

Because tortoise beat me to it.
You got beat by a tortoise? :lol:

Steve K
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Post by Steve K » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:15 pm

1349.88

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thirdman
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Post by thirdman » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:16 pm

1436

_________________________________

Wolfe nodded. "I agree with you. All debts are preposterous. They are the envious past clutching with it's cold dead fingers the throat of the living present." Nero Wolfe in "The Rubber Band" copyright 1936 by Rex Stout.

centrifuge41
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Post by centrifuge41 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:17 pm

Hm, almost everyone is going for a gain in 2011. I'll throw a curveball in!

1178.23

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mudfud
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Post by mudfud » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:19 pm

1402.57
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image

RTR2006
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Post by RTR2006 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:20 pm

1371.62

(ranking #13 in 2009 and #181 in 2010, so I am not trending so well!).

:wink:

RTR

Bluegrass
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Post by Bluegrass » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:24 pm

I will place my bets on 1375. :)

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baa_10
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Post by baa_10 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:26 pm

1459

Thanks....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. ~Leonardo DaVinci

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JDaniels
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Post by JDaniels » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:27 pm

1395.98
"The poor long for riches. The rich long for heaven. But the wise desire tranquility."

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JMacDonald
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Post by JMacDonald » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:31 pm

Hi,
It will be a good year so 1490.30.
Best Wishes, | Joe

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englishgirl
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Post by englishgirl » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:32 pm

1412
Sarah

Call_Me_Op
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Post by Call_Me_Op » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:32 pm

I'll go with 1418.
Last edited by Call_Me_Op on Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

RBK
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Post by RBK » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:32 pm

I'll play. 1315.

pshonore
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Post by pshonore » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:37 pm

1472

Norris
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Post by Norris » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:38 pm

1312
Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. Confucius

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Don Christy
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Post by Don Christy » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:39 pm

1380.90

bank5
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Post by bank5 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:39 pm

1480

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norookie
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Post by norookie » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:40 pm

:D 1411.4 :D
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Bigfoothunter
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Post by Bigfoothunter » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:42 pm

1459

imaginethat
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Post by imaginethat » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:45 pm

1402.26

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sergeant
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Post by sergeant » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:46 pm

1313
Lincoln 3 EOW!

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BigFoot48
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Post by BigFoot48 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:46 pm

1359.13

I have modified my algorithm to include frequency of sun spots, prime number exclusions, and the migration of sea turtles so I fully expect to be in the Top 10 once again!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

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Birdie Num Nums
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Post by Birdie Num Nums » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:47 pm

1370.83

blu-ray
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Post by blu-ray » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:52 pm

1377

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Dan_NoVA
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Post by Dan_NoVA » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:52 pm

1357.9

froggy
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Post by froggy » Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:56 pm

My Guess is 1367.76

chaz
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Post by chaz » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:03 pm

1487.0
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

investor
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Post by investor » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:04 pm

my guess

1421.67

investor

JordanIB
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Post by JordanIB » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:11 pm

1484.02

earlyout
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Post by earlyout » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:13 pm

1350

bac573
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Post by bac573 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:13 pm

1340.41
Last edited by bac573 on Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Saluki31
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Post by Saluki31 » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:13 pm

1397.36

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fishnskiguy
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Post by fishnskiguy » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:22 pm

Hmmmm. 47 post and only two predict a loss. Too many folks looking through rose colored glasses. The market is ahead of itself.

1129.20

Chris
Trident D-5 SLBM- "When you care enough to send the very best."

Sam I Am
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Post by Sam I Am » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:22 pm

1500

Well, one can dream, no?

Sam I Am

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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:25 pm

1289.95.

Can we stop the contest a few hours earlier this year?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:27 pm

1401

That was my guess for 2010, letting it carry to 2011.

nhdean
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Post by nhdean » Sat Jan 01, 2011 3:30 pm

1485

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