nisiprius wrote:Is this like "support levels" and "resistance" "head-and-shoulders formations" and "Fibonacci retraces," only with currency instead of stock prices?
Look, nisiprius - I don't necessarily believe these "technical number" folks - as they seem to have to do with patterns on charts, and I would like to think the world has more substance to it then that. But it doesn't seem to matter whether I believe or not -- all that has to happen is enough big money believe.
Back in April, or whenever it was that both Gross and Greenspan were declaring the great bond bull market over -- they were both responding to these widely known "technical numbers" (recall, they were wrong). And here it is again - for the US Dollar this time, and it is Bill Gross out trumpeting.
I don't understand these "technical" things - or I would describe it better to you. I recently, just found a way of seeing what these numbers were for the US Dollar. Try the symbol $USD at
So a close today above 77.30 after the FOMC would be a good thing for the US Dollar.
I thought of posting the chart, at the time I first found it, but instead just downloaded the graphic to my desk top - so I don't know how I can post it for you all. But it at least explained for me why so many folks seem to believe the US Dollar is done for ... it is one of those head and shoulders things - the head being that early 2000's high. But this technical stuff is not absolute, so there is a possibility of a reverse head and shoulders. But for now - it's between 76.76 and 88.71 (the last high of this range) - an ever narrowing range, and it is the breakout from this range that means something (so some of the number people say).
No, I don't think these numbers are your tenth or hundredth precise. They say the market likes to fool the most people possible?
When I saw this thread - I wondered what Bill Gross's agenda was? He may be right or he may be wrong, but it is striking he is out speaking about the dollar just now, just as he was out speaking about bond yields.
I don't know the future. But right now, today -- I am not ready to believe the US Dollar dies as the worlds reserve currency, today. Maybe someday. Maybe never. But not today.