What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

What's your U.S. : International ratio?

100:0
30
4%
80:20
103
15%
70:30
154
23%
60:40
115
17%
60:40
115
17%
50:50
119
18%
40:60
10
1%
30:70
10
1%
20:80
12
2%
 
Total votes: 668

runner540
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by runner540 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:37 pm

Roughly 50/50.

For those advocating overweighting the US, how do you view these points?
1. I am in my 30s. Think of how much the world has changed in the last 50 years. It will change at least as much again in the next 50 (my investing horizon). For those in retirement, I can understand sticking with your home country bias because it's worked for you, and your time horizon is relatively short versus mine.

2. My other sources of capital (human capital, language skills, social/professional network) are heavily weighted toward the US. Why would I also overweight my financial capital?

3. Japan. The U.S. is special, but not invincible. We are underinvesting in infrastructure, and future human capital/productivity (our health and education outcomes are abysmal compared to other "industrialized" nations).

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:43 pm

60/40 with my monthly contributions going to international

(Slow “upwind” to 50/50)

BlackHat
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by BlackHat » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:30 pm

I am 100% US.

Taking an active bet on American outperformance.
“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.” -- Confucius

amitb00
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by amitb00 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:34 pm

80:20

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Leif
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Leif » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:49 pm

Wow. I thought we can do polls again! Then I saw the OP date.

55:45. Near world equity market.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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abuss368
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:20 pm

U.S. - 60%
International - 40%

Vanguard's present recommendation.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

miles monroe
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by miles monroe » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:42 pm

60-40

but moving toward 50-50.

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Taylor Larimore
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"How Much International Stock? A Suggestion"

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:56 pm

Bogleheads:

No one knows what will prove to have been the best U.S./ International stock ratio when the money is withdrawn from a portfolio. However, we must make a decision. This post should help:

How Much International Stock? A Suggestion

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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abuss368
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by abuss368 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:03 pm

I have been curious for a while if Vanguard investment experts will eventually adjust the LifeStrategy and Target funds to a U.S. 50% and International 50% equity allocation.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

Theoretical
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Theoretical » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm

About 50-35-15 US/DM/EM

CantPassAgain
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by CantPassAgain » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:45 pm

70/30 or therebouts. It has not been beneficial as yet (2017 notwithstanding). The future is unknown however so I have no plans to change.
Last edited by CantPassAgain on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TallBoy29er
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by TallBoy29er » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:58 pm

1.8:1

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kramer
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by kramer » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:04 pm

US - 42%
International - 58%

GCD
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by GCD » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:15 pm

Why no love for 90/10? I feel left out of this poll and rejected and scorned and whatnot. Ah well, I'll survive, but I guess I won't be in the poll results.

JimmyJammy
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by JimmyJammy » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:03 am

Well, Total Stock has certainly trounced Total international over the last 10 year period. So, I guess most people with high international allocations are expecting things to change?

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dccboone
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by dccboone » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:22 am

65% US 35% INT'L

Drovor
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Drovor » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:26 am

runner540 wrote: 1. I am in my 30s. Think of how much the world has changed in the last 50 years. It will change at least as much again in the next 50 (my investing horizon). For those in retirement, I can understand sticking with your home country bias because it's worked for you, and your time horizon is relatively short versus mine.
+1
I was wondering what are others' take on this as well.

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jainn
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by jainn » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:26 am

65% total us stock market index
35% total international index

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Mithrilman
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Mithrilman » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:28 am

62% US
38% Intnl
Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity. -Socrates

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LazyNihilist
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by LazyNihilist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:45 am

Mithrilman wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:28 am
62% US
38% Intnl
Does this have anything to do with the Golden Ratio? :)
The only problem is Entropy, leading to the eventual heat death of the universe. [Seen on /.]

aristotelian
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by aristotelian » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:42 am

70/30 but shifting slowly toward 60/40.

hightower
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by hightower » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:54 am

I have 10% of my total portfolio in VXUS. The rest is all US based and includes 10% REITs.

No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a bit better than total international...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... tingFrom=2


RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:44 am

hightower wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:54 am
I have 10% of my total portfolio in VXUS. The rest is all US based and includes 10% REITs.

No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a bit better than total international...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... tingFrom=2
Times have changed, I won’t be betting my retirement on 1 country

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:48 am


asif408
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by asif408 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:02 am

hightower wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:54 am
No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a bit better than total international...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... tingFrom=2
Starting and ending points matter. Total Int'l began in 1996, at the beginning of the tech bubble, in which Int'l lagged the US. And from 2011-2016 US handily outperformed Int'l:http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D. So you are comparing a starting point of US outperformance and looking at (potentially) an ending point of US outperformance. That of course makes the US look great.

However, if I look at the US vs. Int'l fund from 2002-2014, I see international outperform the whole time: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D. So I found a 12 year period where the Int'l fund outperformed the US fund.

So, in summary, my reasoning is very basic: I don't see any rational reasons why the US stock market should outperform any other world stock market over the long run. Of course some stock market will be the winner, but I'd rather bet on them all than have most of my eggs in one. In fact, I would expect it to be a 50/50 coin flip on average, and history shows it goes back and forth: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060 ... chart2.jpg. Historically speaking, the US has been the 3rd best performing stock market since 1900, after South Africa and Australia (see page 10): https://publications.credit-suisse.com/ ... 52F61BA0B4

But it's probably not a coin flip today, since the US has outperformed pretty substantially since 2011 (at least until last year), and valuations disparities between US & Int'l haven't been this high in several decades. When that happens, the odds tend to favor the lower valuations markets going forward, though there are not guarantees. So I expect some reversion to the mean at some point, and I think that turn has already happened (back in Dec. 2016). Maybe I will be wrong, but I think history is on my side. And I'm willing to live with being wrong.
Last edited by asif408 on Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:15 am, edited 2 times in total.

spectec
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by spectec » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:05 am

Global100 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:09 am
100% US : 0% INTL
Same here, although I know my VTI has a hefty percentage of indirect international baked in.
Last edited by spectec on Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:08 am

people keep hammering “past performance doesn’t guarantee blah blah blah” and yet so many people cling to the US past dominance - especially the ones with minimal int’l funds

Meanwhile, those articles show that bias isn’t exactly true overtime - why wouldn’t you hedge your retirement on multiple countries and approximately 10,000 companies vs just the US ?

I thought past performance was supposed to be irrelevant. It is for me anyway. I don’t have any more faith in the US than I do Europe/China as far as economic growth is concerned. One will win, one will lose - either way i’ll have money on the winner.

Lou354
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Lou354 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:53 am

70:30. That’s what the Federal employees Thrift Savings Plan uses in their target date funds. I figure a plan intended for employees of the federal government isn’t going to have ‘too much’ international exposure.

Tom1320
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Tom1320 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:21 am

Another half 'n halfer here. Because I can't know what the future holds.
"And this, too, shall pass away." How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction! - Our 16th President

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am

Why is VXUS down if Europe / Asia seemed “up” today? I don’t get it ...

keystone
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by keystone » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:43 am

75% US 25% international

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unclescrooge
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by unclescrooge » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:35 am

oldzey wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:14 pm
bgf wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:32 pm
oldzey wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:08 pm
bgf wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:28 pm
oldzey wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:10 pm


+1 same here.
Huh. So how much US exposure do you reckon you'd get by investing in Toyota, Samsung, Tencent, Mercedes Benz, etc. in their currencies?
I'm with Jack: Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets
that didn't answer my question, and i think mr. bogle is dead wrong when it comes to his jingoistic 'explanation' for why he only invests in the US.
My apologies for not addressing your question properly, bgf.

I don't happen to invest in individual stocks, therefore I don't pay attention to how Toyota, Samsung, Tencent, Mercedes Benz, etc. perform individually.

However, as 100% of my equity investments lie solely in Total Stock Market Index Funds, I do care about how Total U.S. Stock Market Index Funds perform versus Total International Stock Market Index Funds.

Let's take a look at past performance over the past 20 years of each fund:

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) was 4/27/1992.

The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX) was 4/29/1996.

Per Morningstar, as of 1/19/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/29/1996, you would currently have $64,465 in your Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund, which would be more than double as much as the $31,221 in your Total International Stock Index Fund.

Image

Of course, past performance does not indicate future performance.

Best,
oldzey
This is just data mining. You're looking for evidence to fit your argument.

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unclescrooge
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by unclescrooge » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:37 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:48 am
Thank you for reminding me why I decided to be 50/50 in the first place
+1 to both posts.

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Mithrilman
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Mithrilman » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:46 am

Cut and pasted from a Bloomberg article...

According to CRSP data, there were more than 9,100 U.S.-listed public companies in 1997. Today, that number is down to slightly more than 5,700. The Wilshire 5000, an index used as a proxy for all U.S. securities with readily available pricing data, holds just over 3,600 stocks as of the start of this year, down from more than 7,500 in 1998. So the number of stocks that trade on the exchanges has basically been cut in half over the past 20 years or so. There are a number of reasons for this change -- increased regulations to go public, fewer IPOs, lax anti-trust laws, venture-backed companies staying private longer and a winner-takes-all marketplace in many industries...

...According to Dimensional Fund Advisors, the number of companies listed on global stock market exchanges has increased from about 23,000 in 1995 to 33,000 by the end of last year. So while the number of companies in the U.S. has shrunk the number of companies worldwide has exploded...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ock-market

I have 38% in international just for diversity sake. Past returns might not suggest an advantage yet (although in 2017 they did), but I feel despite recent political impediments, globalization will continue to prevail, and I'd like broader exposure to the whole market.
Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity. -Socrates

Theoretical
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Theoretical » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:56 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am
Why is VXUS down if Europe / Asia seemed “up” today? I don’t get it ...
Currency effects.

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Oak&Elm
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Oak&Elm » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:21 pm

Interesting post:
My total stock AA is 63%, Within that I use a 5: 2 ratio US/Int, that works out to 45% US / 18% Int. (I like round numbers) That translates to about a
70/30 US/Int for this thread

Theoretical
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Theoretical » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:37 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:44 am
hightower wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:54 am
I have 10% of my total portfolio in VXUS. The rest is all US based and includes 10% REITs.

No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a bit better than total international...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... tingFrom=2
Times have changed, I won’t be betting my retirement on 1 country
3 reasons: First is the Japanese market.

The second is from Bill Bernstein's book on Deep Risk, which argues forcefully that one of the best diversifiers to a runup in domestic inflation is unhedged international stocks.

Third is that my allocation is close to global cap weight on the US/Foreign split.

Tamalak
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by Tamalak » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm

About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:44 pm

Tamalak wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm
About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.
originally i thought mirror the world cap ... then i thought go 50/50 as it's a decent hedge + easy to rebalance ... then i realized market weight/cap is pretty much 50/50 ... long story short: not sure why 50/50 isn't the no brainer choice going forward.

if you're younger - the previous returns bias should be irrelevant.

staythecourse
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by staythecourse » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:46 pm

bg5 wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:11 am
Currently 100% equity with 80% US and 20% international. The 2 funds I use for my retirement are As follows:

80% VTSMX (vanguard total stock market)

20% VGTSX (vanguard total international)

I have thought about going 70-30 or 75-25 but my core holding in VTSMX has plenty of foreign influence.

Let's face it. The US economy will out perform international in the long run. If not.... we are all in trouble
I don't understand your thought process. If you say "US economy will outperform international in the long run" then why are you 20% in international? Do you like getting worse returns that are so obvious to you instead of just being 100% U.S.?

Besides if it is so obvious then shouldn't that be the EXACT reason that it should under perform higher risk countries? Or are you advocating there is a free lunch in investing (higher return with less risk)? If it is the latter then you are assuming you are the ONLY person who has come to this conclusion and have a very good crystal ball to back it up OR you are the only one who sees an obvious $20 on the street that no one else does. Either way is a dangerous assumption, no?

I am 50/50 because I have NO CLUE what will do well in the future. Just I was when I first starting investing as I have no better crystal ball no as I did back then.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

nodenuff2
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by nodenuff2 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:47 pm

80.9 to 19.1 Vtsax to Vtiax just looked .
2014 No. 42 2015 No.342 2016 No. 6 2017 238 what do I know? "Good bless America land that I love..."

lostdog
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by lostdog » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:22 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:03 pm
I have been curious for a while if Vanguard investment experts will eventually adjust the LifeStrategy and Target funds to a U.S. 50% and International 50% equity allocation.
My guess is they'll slowly get there. By the way, on my vanguard Android app they recommend up to 50%. You can find this in the asset mix section.
100% Vanguard Total World Equity Index. Simplicity 100%.

lostdog
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by lostdog » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:32 pm

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:44 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm
About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.
originally i thought mirror the world cap ... then i thought go 50/50 as it's a decent hedge + easy to rebalance ... then i realized market weight/cap is pretty much 50/50 ... long story short: not sure why 50/50 isn't the no brainer choice going forward.

if you're younger - the previous returns bias should be irrelevant.
Let's say market cap changes to 30/70. Would you stay 50/50? For me I would stay 50/50 for simplicity sake.
100% Vanguard Total World Equity Index. Simplicity 100%.

pascalwager
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by pascalwager » Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:10 am

lostdog wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:32 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:44 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm
About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.
originally i thought mirror the world cap ... then i thought go 50/50 as it's a decent hedge + easy to rebalance ... then i realized market weight/cap is pretty much 50/50 ... long story short: not sure why 50/50 isn't the no brainer choice going forward.

if you're younger - the previous returns bias should be irrelevant.
Let's say market cap changes to 30/70. Would you stay 50/50? For me I would stay 50/50 for simplicity sake.
In what respect is 30/70 more complex than 50/50? Or do you mean it's more simple to avoid a change?

pascalwager
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by pascalwager » Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:19 am

I hold the world market AA. It changes daily, of course.

Today: US 52.4%, non-US 47.6%

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:11 am

lostdog wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:32 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:44 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm
About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.
originally i thought mirror the world cap ... then i thought go 50/50 as it's a decent hedge + easy to rebalance ... then i realized market weight/cap is pretty much 50/50 ... long story short: not sure why 50/50 isn't the no brainer choice going forward.

if you're younger - the previous returns bias should be irrelevant.
Let's say market cap changes to 30/70. Would you stay 50/50? For me I would stay 50/50 for simplicity sake.
If that happens, I assume my funds would somewhat follow along with it - if not I guess I would change accordingly

Now, if the US loses 20% of it’s global economic prowess ... buy low 🤞

RRAAYY3
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:13 am

pascalwager wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:19 am
I hold the world market AA. It changes daily, of course.

Today: US 52.4%, non-US 47.6%
Yeah I have a 5% “band” where I don’t bother rebalancing otherwise ... when it’s time for my next contribution, I just put it in whichever is lower - market decides for me

fire_rebel
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by fire_rebel » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:50 am

US 30%, Intl 70%.

remomnyc
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Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Post by remomnyc » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:06 pm

60/40

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