John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read it?)

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PatrickS
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John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read it?)

Post by PatrickS »

I've read some of his real estate books and thought they were decent (not you typical hype no money down crap). I'm on his email list and just received an ad for his new book "Hyperinflation & Depression," which is a guide to protecting your wealth when (not if) we get to a point where we either have to default or hyperinflate our way out of our national debt.

Has anyone here read the book and can you give an opinion?
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read

Post by Taylor Larimore »

PatrickS wrote:I've read some of his real estate books and thought they were decent (not you typical hype no money down crap). I'm on his email list and just received an ad for his new book "Hyperinflation & Depression," which is a guide to protecting your wealth when (not if) we get to a point where we either have to default or hyperinflate our way out of our national debt.

Has anyone here read the book and can you give an opinion?
Hi Patrick:

You aroused my curiosity so I ran a quick check. This is a small portion of what he writes to encourage us to buy his book (not sold by Amazon):
Risk management:
How to Protect your Life Savings from Hyperinflation & Depression is a risk-management book. 99.99% of American have almost no clue about risk management. Yet they are currently marching like lemmings toward our unsustainable financial future blissful in their ignorance of hyperinflation risk, deflation risk, exchange risk, depository institution risk, counterparty risk, tax risk, political risk, index risk, model risk, currency risk, non-recourse mortgages, bankruptcy exemptions, correlated assets, and so on. In hyperinflation or depression, that sort of ignorance can kill you financially, and too often in the past, literally end your marriage, health, and even life. Wise up fast before it’s too late.
http://www.johntreed.com/hyperinflationdepression.html

Sorry, it is not my kind of book even though I am among the 99.9% of American's with "almost no clue."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
matt
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Post by matt »

99.99% of American have almost no clue about risk management. Yet they are currently marching like lemmings toward our unsustainable financial future blissful in their ignorance of hyperinflation risk, deflation risk, exchange risk, depository institution risk, counterparty risk, tax risk, political risk, index risk, model risk, currency risk, non-recourse mortgages, bankruptcy exemptions, correlated assets, and so on.
I'll go one step further and say that 100.0% of Americans do not understand all of the topics listed. Unfortunately, that takes Mr. Reed out of the 0.1% minority he placed himself in and lumps him in with the rest of us chumps.
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paddyshack
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Re: John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read

Post by paddyshack »

PatrickS wrote:I've read some of his real estate books and thought they were decent (not you typical hype no money down crap). I'm on his email list and just received an ad for his new book "Hyperinflation & Depression," which is a guide to protecting your wealth when (not if) we get to a point where we either have to default or hyperinflate our way out of our national debt.

Has anyone here read the book and can you give an opinion?
I can't give you an opinion on his book, but I'll give you an opinion on his website - very low budget. http://www.johntreed.com

He also wrote a book on self-publishing. His books might indeed be brilliant, but well, I'll just say that anybody with a few bucks can self-publish. And, I saw enough of his writing here to conclude it wasn't for me: http://www.johntreed.com/headline.html
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Post by KyleAAA »

John T Reed's books are generally pretty good. Haven't read the latest one, though. He definitely knows what he's talking about, but he often takes a patronizing tone.
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Re: John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read

Post by KyleAAA »

paddyshack wrote: I can't give you an opinion on his book, but I'll give you an opinion on his website - very low budget. http://www.johntreed.com
That's probably because low-budget websites sell much, much better than high-budget websites, all else being equal. I wouldn't judge him based on that.
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Post by Alex Frakt »

IMO, Reed is an excellent example of someone who mistakenly believes that expertise in one field - in his case, investing in real estate - necessarily translates into expertise in another.

Or more cynically, given that Reed makes his money selling books and seminars about real estate investing, one has to wonder if this book is simply an attempt to mine a few dollars from his mailing list until things improve in his primary market.

Edit: if Reed's name seems familiar to you, it may be because we've often linked to his page debunking Kiyosaki (the Rich Dad, Poor Dad author) - http://www.johntreed.com/Kiyosaki.html.
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Post by nisiprius »

Didn't he write Ten Days That Shook The World? :P

I've never read it, but I enjoyed the movie (Reds) with Warren Beatty and Diane Keaton.
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Post by anakinskywalker »

nisiprius wrote:Didn't he write Ten Days That Shook The World? :P

I've never read it, but I enjoyed the movie (Reds) with Warren Beatty and Diane Keaton.
That's way below your usual level of well-informedness, nisi; didn't expect it.

That book was written by a namesakewho died in 1920.

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Post by matt »

anakinskywalker wrote:
That's way below your usual level of well-informedness, nisi; didn't expect it.

That book was written by a namesake who died in 1920.
Hey, if Mr. Reed has mastered all manner of financial topics, perhaps he has also discovered how not to die.
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Post by Allgood »

KyleAAA wrote:John T Reed's books are generally pretty good. Haven't read the latest one, though. He definitely knows what he's talking about, but he often takes a patronizing tone.
The patronizing tone is the most telling of his books. I cannot speak of his real estate or investing books but his books on coaching youth baseball and football are well organized. Unfortunately, the overall tone makes reading the material a difficult chore.
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Post by subrosa »

He wrote a site with bigtime rich dad smackdown and a book on clock management in football that NFL coaches Bill Walsh and Marv Levy, with what 7 super bowl appearances between them, positively reviewed.

That is a pretty cool combo, you have to admit.

(Not sure about the other stuff)
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Post by Indices »

Let's not judge before we read the book. I have several of Reed's books including his book on self publishing. They are excellent. Reed has an abrasive personality and it comes out in his writing. So he offends people. I intend on reading the book, but I think the likelihood of a default or hyperinflation is very small. Reed, like many Libertarians, believes that deficit spending is a terrible thing, and that government should be run like a business. I think he is wrong, but his book might have some interesting ideas. I emailed him a few weeks ago and told him about the Permanent Portfolio and he dismissed it. So we'll see.

He really is a good writer, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt.
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Post by stratton »

Don't know about this, but what little I've read of his real estate stuff and analysis of financial seminar providers is excellent.

Paul
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John T. Reed is the Gregory House M.D. of finance writers

Post by Buffett_wannabe »

Indices wrote:Let's not judge before we read the book. I have several of Reed's books including his book on self publishing. They are excellent. Reed has an abrasive personality and it comes out in his writing. So he offends people.
I concur. I've been following Reed for several years and find it's been increasingly difficult not to discount the message on account of the messenger. If you can get past his politics and focus on financial matters, he does have a lot of valid points to make. One of them is that we're not getting any closer to solving the national debt time bomb and it would be good to think about what we can do as individuals to protect ourselves financially.

I'm tempted to buy the hyperinflation/depression book based on the advance material on his web site. I've always been impressed by the holistic approach Reed takes to analyzing real estate, incorporating tax considerations, liability worries, political risk, etc. and he seems to be carrying that approach into how individuals can deal with either hyperinflation or deflation (correctly pointing out that we don't know which will happen). He is a monetarist's monetarist and I don't share his certainty that one of the two must inevitably happen, but it certainly is likely enough to warrant a contingency. Particularly if the present austerity binge in Europe slams the brakes on the recovery.

One thing I don't know is how much the book will expand on the adage he quotes, "You do not want to owe money in deflation and you do not want to own money in inflation." I think he's made a good argument against gold and not so good against TIPS in what he's posted so far; enough to whet my appetite to see the rest of the book.

Best regards,
Craig B.
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Post by upside »

KyleAAA wrote:John T Reed's books are generally pretty good. Haven't read the latest one, though. He definitely knows what he's talking about, but he often takes a patronizing tone.
Pot calling the kettle...
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Re: John T. Reed is the Gregory House M.D. of finance writer

Post by Valuethinker »

Buffett_wannabe wrote:
Indices wrote:Let's not judge before we read the book. I have several of Reed's books including his book on self publishing. They are excellent. Reed has an abrasive personality and it comes out in his writing. So he offends people.
I concur. I've been following Reed for several years and find it's been increasingly difficult not to discount the message on account of the messenger. If you can get past his politics and focus on financial matters, he does have a lot of valid points to make. One of them is that we're not getting any closer to solving the national debt time bomb and it would be good to think about what we can do as individuals to protect ourselves financially.
I disagree that the US has a 'national debt time bomb' or, indeed, anything like.

We'd have to go into all sorts of topics forbidden here to discuss that further, but I thought I should at least note that that (widely used) throwaway line is in no sense a 'fact' but simply an opinion.
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Re: John T. Reed is the Gregory House M.D. of finance writer

Post by Buffett_wannabe »

Valuethinker wrote:I disagree that the US has a 'national debt time bomb'
...
that (widely used) throwaway line is in no sense a 'fact' but simply an opinion.
Yes, I used a cliche. I think whether fiscal policy could cause hyperinflation or deflation is a side issue and would hate to see the thread locked for veering off into that territory. What is a legitimate topic is this: presuming that one of these can happen in the USA, is it possible to defend one's savings against either through asset allocation, and is the opportunity cost of doing so too high to bother with it?

My take is "partially yes" on the former and "no idea" on the latter. A corollary question: does Mr. Reed's book contain any useful insight to the issue? Someone will have to read it, I guess.

Best regards,
Craig B.
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Re: John Reed, Hyperinflation & Depression (anyone read

Post by HomerJ »

Risk management:
How to Protect your Life Savings from Hyperinflation & Depression is a risk-management book. 99.99% of American have almost no clue about risk management. Yet they are currently marching like lemmings toward our unsustainable financial future blissful in their ignorance of hyperinflation risk, deflation risk, exchange risk, depository institution risk, counterparty risk, tax risk, political risk, index risk, model risk, currency risk, non-recourse mortgages, bankruptcy exemptions, correlated assets, and so on. In hyperinflation or depression, that sort of ignorance can kill you financially, and too often in the past, literally end your marriage, health, and even life. Wise up fast before it’s too late.
Wait, is he saying if I don't read his book, I coud die from my ignorance?
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